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卫星互联网,还未走出“大哥大困境”
Hu Xiu· 2025-09-28 13:32
Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of China's satellite industry, particularly low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite constellations, faces significant challenges, including commercial difficulties and the need for improved space traffic management and frequency resource allocation [1][2][3]. Group 1: Industry Development - The satellite communication industry has seen a surge in interest, especially in low Earth orbit satellite communications, driven by advancements in rocket launches, integrated circuits, satellite manufacturing, and communication technologies [3][4]. - Despite the growth, satellite communication has not yet achieved economies of scale, remaining primarily focused on emergency communication needs, with only about 10 million satellite communication users compared to 5.7 billion mobile communication users globally [4][5][7]. - The current state of satellite communication is characterized by high costs for terminals and services, leading to a limited user base, which is described as being stuck in a "1G era" commercial dilemma [5][7]. Group 2: Technical Challenges - The satellite communication system is fragmented, with various incompatible technical standards, making it difficult to achieve economies of scale [9][10]. - The lack of unified standards and the presence of multiple satellite systems increase costs for terminal manufacturers, as each new system requires additional infrastructure [10]. Group 3: Space Traffic Management - The increasing number of satellites in orbit has led to significant challenges in space traffic management, with over 600 high-orbit satellites and plans for more than 130,000 low Earth orbit satellites, raising collision risks [12][14][16]. - There is currently no effective management or coordination rules for space traffic, which complicates the operation of satellite constellations and increases the risk of collisions [17][21]. - The absence of a reliable data-sharing platform for satellite positioning further exacerbates the challenges of avoiding collisions in space [21][22]. Group 4: Mobile Satellite Communication - The concept of direct satellite communication for mobile phones is gaining traction, with companies like SpaceX exploring various models to enable this service [23][24]. - SpaceX's acquisition of EchoStar's wireless spectrum license is a significant step towards independent mobile satellite services, which could disrupt the existing satellite and ground communication markets [24][25]. - However, challenges remain, including high satellite costs and limitations in communication speeds for existing satellite systems [26][27].