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国海证券:1月铁矿石吞吐量回升、集装箱吞吐量稳增 维持航运港口板块“推荐”评级
智通财经网· 2026-02-13 07:27
Group 1: Overview of Import and Export - The total import and export volume in China for 2025 is projected to reach 45.47 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.8%, with imports at 18.48 trillion yuan (0.5% growth) and exports at 26.99 trillion yuan (6.1% growth) [1][2] - The growth rates for imports of electromechanical products, high-tech products, and agricultural products are 5.7%, 9.9%, and -3% respectively, with their respective shares being 40.08%, 31.84%, and 8.03% [2] - The growth rates for exports of electromechanical products, high-tech products, and agricultural products are 9%, 8%, and 1.7% respectively, with their respective shares being 61.02%, 25.12%, and 2.76% [2] Group 2: Cargo Throughput - The total cargo throughput at major coastal ports in China for 2025 is expected to reach 11.634 billion tons, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, and foreign trade cargo throughput at 5.066 billion tons, growing by 4.7% [2] - The year-on-year growth rates for cargo throughput in Hebei, Shandong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Guangdong are 3.1%, 5.7%, 7.8%, 2.8%, 4.9%, and 2.2% respectively, with their respective shares being 12.45%, 18.84%, 5.22%, 6.98%, 15.27%, and 17.08% [2] Group 3: Container Shipping - The container shipping price index (CCFI) on February 6, 2026, is reported at 1122.15 points, down 20.7% year-on-year and 4.55% month-on-month, with specific routes like the East and West US and Europe showing declines of -26.71%, -29.74%, and -20.63% respectively [4] - The container throughput at major coastal ports in China for 2025 is projected to be 31.198 million TEUs, with a year-on-year growth of 7%, and specific ports like Qingdao, Shanghai, Ningbo-Zhoushan, and Shenzhen showing growth rates of 6.5%, 6.9%, 11.6%, and 6% respectively [4] Group 4: Liquid Bulk Shipping - The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) on February 6, 2026, is reported at 1691 points, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 87.26% and a month-on-month increase of 4% [5] - The crude oil import volume for 2025 is expected to reach 578 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 4.4%, while the throughput at major crude oil receiving ports is projected to be 389 million tons, showing a decline of 3.4% [5][6] Group 5: Dry Bulk Shipping - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) on February 6, 2026, is reported at 1923 points, indicating a year-on-year increase of 135.95% and a month-on-month increase of 9.14% [7] - The iron ore throughput for 2025 is projected to be 1.399 billion tons, with a year-on-year growth of 4.39%, while coal throughput is expected to be 688 million tons, reflecting a decline of 1.07% [8]