Eld The | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2026/2/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 贵钓 EC2604 | | 昨日收盘价 1278.6 | 涨跌 -3.18% | 基差 294.9 | 昨日成交量 33480 | | 昨日持仓量 35322 | 持仓变动 850 | | | EC2605 | | 1435.0 | -2.97% | 138.5 | 274 | | 351 | 41 | | | EC2606 | | 1659.0 | -1.93% | -85.5 | 6533 | | 16362 | રેજિર | | | EC2607 | | 1828.9 | -1.35% | -255.4 | રેર | | 207 | 8 | | | EC2608 | | 1730.3 | -0.66% | -156.8 | 483 | | 1337 | 0 | | | EC2609 | | 1322.0 | 0.53% | 251.5 | 14 | | 140 | 0 | ...

Group 1: Overview of Import and Export - The total import and export volume in China for 2025 is projected to reach 45.47 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.8%, with imports at 18.48 trillion yuan (0.5% growth) and exports at 26.99 trillion yuan (6.1% growth) [1][2] - The growth rates for imports of electromechanical products, high-tech products, and agricultural products are 5.7%, 9.9%, and -3% respectively, with their respective shares being 40.08%, 31.84%, and 8.03% [2] - The growth rates for exports of electromechanical products, high-tech products, and agricultural products are 9%, 8%, and 1.7% respectively, with their respective shares being 61.02%, 25.12%, and 2.76% [2] Group 2: Cargo Throughput - The total cargo throughput at major coastal ports in China for 2025 is expected to reach 11.634 billion tons, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, and foreign trade cargo throughput at 5.066 billion tons, growing by 4.7% [2] - The year-on-year growth rates for cargo throughput in Hebei, Shandong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Guangdong are 3.1%, 5.7%, 7.8%, 2.8%, 4.9%, and 2.2% respectively, with their respective shares being 12.45%, 18.84%, 5.22%, 6.98%, 15.27%, and 17.08% [2] Group 3: Container Shipping - The container shipping price index (CCFI) on February 6, 2026, is reported at 1122.15 points, down 20.7% year-on-year and 4.55% month-on-month, with specific routes like the East and West US and Europe showing declines of -26.71%, -29.74%, and -20.63% respectively [4] - The container throughput at major coastal ports in China for 2025 is projected to be 31.198 million TEUs, with a year-on-year growth of 7%, and specific ports like Qingdao, Shanghai, Ningbo-Zhoushan, and Shenzhen showing growth rates of 6.5%, 6.9%, 11.6%, and 6% respectively [4] Group 4: Liquid Bulk Shipping - The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) on February 6, 2026, is reported at 1691 points, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 87.26% and a month-on-month increase of 4% [5] - The crude oil import volume for 2025 is expected to reach 578 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 4.4%, while the throughput at major crude oil receiving ports is projected to be 389 million tons, showing a decline of 3.4% [5][6] Group 5: Dry Bulk Shipping - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) on February 6, 2026, is reported at 1923 points, indicating a year-on-year increase of 135.95% and a month-on-month increase of 9.14% [7] - The iron ore throughput for 2025 is projected to be 1.399 billion tons, with a year-on-year growth of 4.39%, while coal throughput is expected to be 688 million tons, reflecting a decline of 1.07% [8]

1. Report Information - Report Name: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: December 31, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The SCFIS index rebounded 9.7% to 1742.64 points this week. The price increase in mid - to late December was well - implemented, with full cabins in the second - last week of December and some voyages over - booked. The freight rate in early January is around 2880 dollars, with good cargo collection. There may be some upside potential for the February contract, but the expectation of Red Sea route resumption after the Spring Festival may rise, so pay attention to shorting opportunities for the April contract in the off - season and the positive spread trading opportunity between 02 - 04 contracts [8] 3. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: The SCFIS index rose 9.7% to 1742.64 points this week. The January freight rate is around 2880 dollars with good cargo collection. There is an expectation of price increase in late January, and the February contract may have upside potential. However, pay attention to the shorting opportunity of the April contract in the off - season and the positive spread trading opportunity between 02 - 04 contracts [8] 4. Industry News - From December 22 to 26, the China export container shipping market showed a positive trend, with the comprehensive index rising 6.7% to 1656.32 points on December 26. European routes: The European economy in 2025 was weak, with manufacturing PMI below the boom - bust line and slow - down in service industry growth. The geopolitical and energy security risks are high. The spot market booking price rose during the signing season, with the Shanghai - to - Europe freight rate up 10.2% to 1690 dollars/TEU on December 26. Mediterranean routes: The market moved in tandem with European routes, with the freight rate up 10.9% to 3143 dollars/TEU on December 26. North American routes: The US job market showed a slight recovery, and the freight demand was good, with the Shanghai - to - West Coast and East Coast US freight rates up 9.8% and 6.6% to 2188 dollars/FEU and 3033 dollars/FEU respectively on December 26 [9][10] - Many shipping companies announced price increases. MSC raised rates on multiple routes from December 15, with the increase larger than at the beginning of the month, valid until December 31. Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd announced PSS increases on multiple routes. CMA CGM will impose a PSS of 250 dollars per TEU on Asian - to - Nordic routes from December 29 and adjust FAK rates from January 1, 2026 [10] - Israeli forces killed several Hamas members in Rafah. The armed militants in Rafah tunnels are still in direct contact with Hamas military leadership. The Suez Canal Authority announced that Maersk would resume Red Sea - Suez Canal navigation from early December, but Maersk later denied it [10] 5. Data Overview 5.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices | Route | 2025/12/29 | 2025/12/22 | Change | YoY (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS: European Routes (Basic Ports) | 1742.64 | 1589.2 | 153.44 | 9.7% | | SCFIS: US West Coast Routes (Basic Ports) | 1301.41 | 962.1 | 339.31 | 35.3% | [12] 5.2 Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Market | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | Closing Price | Settlement Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2602 | 1833.3 | 1835.0 | 1795.1 | 1792.0 | - 38.2 | - 2.08 | 24777 | 27855 | - 2582 | | EC2604 | 1164.6 | 1171.0 | 1160.2 | 1165.3 | - 4.4 | - 0.38 | 7238 | 21241 | 44 | | EC2606 | 1350.2 | 1385.0 | 1370.0 | 1370.1 | 19.8 | 1.47 | 856 | 2230 | - 129 | | EC2608 | 1498.2 | 1506.0 | 1500.1 | 1499.3 | 1.9 | 0.13 | 86 | 1196 | - 10 | | EC2610 | 1052.9 | 1057.0 | 1056.0 | 1056.4 | 3.1 | 0.29 | 643 | 6084 | 72 | | EC2612 | 1052.9 | 1300.1 | 1308.0 | 1285.3 | 255.1 | 24.23 | 96 | 56 | 56 | [6] 5.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - Figures include the trend of container shipping European routes futures main and secondary main contracts, European container ship capacity, global container ship order backlog, Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rate, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rate [18][19][21]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS and SCFI indices have significantly increased, boosting bullish sentiment, but the market pulled back after reaching a high due to pre - holiday caution about funds. The focus should be on tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [5][6]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Rate Index - On December 29, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1742.64 points, up 9.7% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1301.41 points, up 35.3% from the previous period [2]. - On December 26, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1656.32 points, up 103.4 points from the previous period. The SCFI European line price was 1690 USD/TEU, up 10.24% from the previous period; the US - West route was 2188 USD/FEU, up 9.84% from the previous period [3]. - On December 26, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1094.77 points, up 7.24% from the previous period; the European route was 1144.37 points, up 7.22% from the previous period; the US - West route was 1254.91 points, up 2.16% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1124.73 points, up 0.6% from the previous period; the European route was 1473.90 points, up 0.2% from the previous period; the US - West route was 792.06 points, down 0.9% from the previous period [4]. 3.2 Economic Data - The eurozone's November composite PMI preliminary value was 52.4, slightly lower than October's 52.5, remaining above the boom - bust line of 50. The services PMI preliminary value was 53.1, better than both the previous value and the expected value, achieving the best monthly performance in a year and a half. The eurozone's December Sentix investor confidence index was - 6.2, better than the expected - 7 and the previous value of - 7.4 [5]. - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. In October, the composite PMI output index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for the first time since 2023 [5]. - The preliminary value of the US November S&P Global services PMI was 55, better than the expected 54.6 and the previous value of 54.8. The preliminary value of the US November S&P Global composite PMI was 54.8, rising for the second consecutive month, better than the expected 54.6 and the previous value of 54.6 [5]. 3.3 Futures Market - On December 29, the main contract 2602 closed at 1822.9, up 0.87%, with a trading volume of 24,400 lots and an open interest of 30,400 lots, a decrease of 1412 lots from the previous day [6]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract reached a new high, and it has been recommended to take full profits. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and not to add more positions [7]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [7]. - Long - term strategy: It has been recommended to take profits when each contract reaches a high, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [7].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight futures price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) rose slightly this week. Christmas stocking demand is conducive to the recovery of the futures price, but due to the failure of the announced price increase to materialize, leading shipping companies have successively lowered the prices of a new round of containers, causing the previous freight rate increases to be partially reversed. Although the overall market sentiment has improved, the boosting effect of the traditional peak season may be weaker than expected. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner [6][7][38] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The main contract price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures rose slightly this week. The EC2512 contract's trading volume and open interest both declined. The EC2602 contract had a weekly increase of 6.03%, while far - month contracts had increases of 1 - 2% [10][12][14] 2. News Review and Analysis - Ukraine's President Zelensky announced the details of the 20 - point draft of the Russia - Ukraine "peace plan", with the key territorial issue remaining unresolved. The EU decided to extend economic sanctions against Russia for another 6 months. The U.S. Q3 real GDP had a significant annualized quarterly - on - quarterly increase of 4.3%. The central bank's monetary policy committee suggested integrating incremental and existing policies, and the EU extended sanctions against Russia [17] 3. Weekly Market Data - The basis and spread of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures contracts both shrank this week. The export container freight rate index rebounded slightly. Global container shipping capacity continued to grow, with a slight recovery in European - line capacity. The BDI and BPI declined, and the charter price of Panamax ships dropped. The spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar converged [23][26][30] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The freight futures price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) rose slightly this week. The latest SCFIS European - line settlement freight rate index increased by 5.2% week - on - week. The SCFI rebounded for the second consecutive week. The manufacturing PMI in China showed a slight improvement in November, and terminal transportation demand recovered before Christmas. Only MSC and MSK have announced feasible spot quotes for January. The Red Sea resumption of navigation expectation has improved, and the euro - zone economy is expected to maintain its relative strength. However, the boosting effect of the peak season may be weaker than expected, and investors should focus on shipping companies' price - increase announcements [38][39]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - Global major liner company CMA CGM's decision to use the Suez Canal for its INDAMEX route is a significant signal of container ships' large - scale return to the Red Sea route. The traffic volume through the Bab el Mande Strait has reached the highest since January 2024 [6]. - The FEWB route in December saw shipping companies strictly control capacity, with a low blank - sailing rate of 0.9%. Combined with ship maintenance, reduced capacity; port congestion in Europe and strong e - commerce demand supported freight rates, and shipping companies' GRI push led the market up [6]. - The TAWB route had serious port congestion in Northern Europe and the Mediterranean due to labor disputes, with yard utilization over 90%, and many European countries faced shortages of containers and trailers [6]. - In the EC market, the spot price of Maersk for the first week of December was 2500, and the price to London was 2700, unchanged from early December. The market was in an oscillatory state [7]. - On the spot side, price quotes stabilized at 2400 US dollars. In December, the freight rate center increased by over 200 US dollars compared to the first half of the month. Shipping companies' coordinated price - holding actions strengthened market confidence. On the supply - demand side, European seasonal stocking increased cargo volume, shipping companies' loading rates improved, and effective supply was not overly loose. The limited progress of Red Sea re - navigation did not increase supply negatives, leading to the 2602 contract's upward oscillation [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - **SCFI**: The current value is 1506, up 7.79% from the previous value of 1398 [5]. - **CCFI**: The current value is 1118, up 0.29% from the previous value of 1115 [5]. - **SCFI - US West**: The current value is 1780, up 14.84% from the previous value of 1550 [5]. - **SCFIS - US West**: The current value is 924, down 3.75% from the previous value of 960 [5]. - **SCFI - US East**: The current value is 2652, up 14.56% from the previous value of 2315 [5]. - **SCFI - Northwest Europe**: The current value is 1538, up 9.86% from the previous value of 1400 [5]. - **SCFIS - Northwest Europe**: The current value is 1510, up 0.07% from the previous value of 1509 [5]. - **SCFI - Mediterranean**: The current value is 2737, up 19.00% from the previous value of 2300 [5]. 3.2 Shipping Derivative Contracts - **Contract Prices**: For contracts like EC2506, EC2608, etc., their current values, previous values, and corresponding percentage changes are provided. For example, EC2506's current value is 1283.7, down 0.49% from the previous value of 1290.0 [5]. - **Contract Positions**: The current and previous positions and their changes are given for contracts such as EC2606, EC2608, etc. For example, EC2606's current position is 2306, with a change of 1 from the previous value of 2305 [5]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The current values, previous values, and changes of spreads like 12 - 02, 12 - 04, etc. are presented. For example, the 12 - 02 spread's current value is - 67.8, down 12.5 from the previous value of - 55.3 [5]. 4. Strategy - Recommend a small - position short - selling attempt on the 02 contract when the price is high [10]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The December contract follows the delivery logic, with a small deviation and low positions [3] - The February contract has a moderately high valuation, and is expected to move sideways in the short - term. Looking ahead, the driving force is upward due to strong and recovering cargo volume. Historically, freight rate peaks often occur 4 - 5 weeks before the Spring Festival (mid - to late January 2026), but the high capacity in January 2026 may suppress the peak. At the current valuation, it is recommended to wait and see [3] - The April contract has limited short - term downside. Attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunities when the April contract may rise following the near - month contracts [3] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - EC2512: Yesterday's closing price was 1650.0, with a decline of 0.19%, a basis of - 140.9, trading volume of 245, and an open interest of 2947 with a decrease of 84 [2] - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1677.8, with a decline of 0.66%, a basis of - 168.7, trading volume of 27001, and an open interest of 31664 with an increase of 41 [2] - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1106.0, with an increase of 1.22%, a basis of 403.1, trading volume of 10155, and an open interest of 19930 [2] - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1260.8, with an increase of 2.71%, a basis of 248.3, trading volume of 790, and an open interest of 2355 with an increase of 59 [2] - EC2608: Yesterday's closing price was 1431.7, with an increase of 3.61%, a basis of 77.4, trading volume of 763 [2] - EC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1030.0, with an increase of 0.82%, a basis of 479.1, trading volume of 813, and an open interest of 4582 with an increase of 291 [2] Month - to - Month Spreads - EC2512 - 2504: The previous day's value was 544.0, with a daily decrease of 16.4 and a weekly decrease of 15.0 [2] - EC2512 - 2602: The previous day's value was - 27.8, with a daily increase of 8.1 and a weekly decrease of 91.9 [2] - EC2502 - 2604: The previous day's value was 571.8, with a daily decrease of 24.5 and a weekly increase of 76.9 [2] Spot Freight Rate Index - SCFIS: Updated every Monday, as of December 8, 2025, it was 1509.10 points, with a 1.72% increase from the previous period and a - 9.50% decrease from the period before [2] - SCFI: Updated every week, as of December 12, 2025, it was 1538 dollars/TEU, with a 9.86% increase from the previous period and a - 0.28% decrease from the period before [2] - CCFI (European Line): Updated every week, as of December 12, 2025, it was 1470.55 points, with a 1.59% increase from the previous period and a - 0.12% decrease from the period before [2] - NCFI: Updated every week, as of December 12, 2025, it was 1064.13 points, with a 9.98% increase from the previous period and a - 5.57% decrease from the period before [2] European Line Spot Situation - Week 50: The central price was 2200 US dollars, equivalent to 1540 points on the futures market [3] - Week 51: MSK opened at 2400 US dollars (a 200 - dollar increase from the previous week); MSC and OA quoted 2600 - 2700 US dollars, and PA quoted 2400 US dollars. The current central price is 1760 US dollars, equivalent to about 1760 points on the futures market [3] - Week 52: MSK opened at 2300 US dollars (a 100 - dollar decrease from the previous week), and other companies mainly followed the Week 51 prices [8] Related News - On December 13, 2025, MSC issued a price - increase letter for January, raising the freight rates for 20 - foot and 40 - foot containers on European lines to 2220 and 3700 US dollars respectively [4] - On December 12, 2025, the EU Council agreed to impose a fixed tariff of 3 euros on small packages worth less than 150 euros entering the EU through e - commerce from July 1, 2026 [4] - On December 12, 2025, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu held a meeting with the security cabinet, worrying about a potential military operation in Lebanon [4] - US officials said that the Gaza International Stabilization Force may be deployed as early as next month, but how to disarm Hamas remains unclear [4] Future Price Increase Plans - In January, MSK and MSC announced price increases to 3500 and 3700 US dollars respectively [7]

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the reports. Core Viewpoints - The core issue lies in the direction of spot freight rates, with the tariff issue showing a marginal effect. The main contract has seen a seasonal rebound, so it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [2]. - The short - term strategy for freight rate trends is that the logic returns to traditional seasonality and the resumption of shipping in the Red Sea. Currently, the spot price has slightly decreased. For risk - takers, it is advised to close all positions in the main contract, not to add more positions or hold losing positions, and to set stop - losses [2]. - In the context of international turmoil, the contracts follow seasonal logic with large fluctuations. For the arbitrage strategy, it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. For the long - term strategy, it is advised to take profits when the contracts reach a high point, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then make further judgments [2]. Summary by Relevant Content Freight Rate Index - On December 5, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1509.10 points, up 1.7% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 960.51 points, up 1.2% from the previous period. The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 972.63 points, up 2.77% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1024.64 points, up 7.67% from the previous period [1]. - On December 5, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) published price was 1397.63 points, down 5.5 points from the previous period; the European line price was 1400 USD/TEU, down 0.28% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1121.80 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1449.34 points, up 1.1% from the previous period [1]. - On December 8, the NCFI for the US - West route was 881.66 points, down 7.77% from the previous period. The SCFI for the US - West route was 1550 USD/FEU, down 5.02% from the previous period. The CCFI for the US - West route was 841.86 points, down 1.1% from the previous period [1]. Economic Data - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating overall stability in business production and operation activities [2]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in October was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous value 54.2); the preliminary value of the manufacturing PMI was 52.2 (expected 52, previous value 52); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous value 53.9) [2]. - The preliminary value of the eurozone's composite PMI in November was 52.4, slightly lower than the October figure of 52.5, remaining above the boom - bust line of 50. The preliminary value of the service industry PMI was 53.1, higher than the previous value of 53 and better than the expected value of 52.8, achieving the best monthly performance in a year and a half. The eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index in December was - 6.2 (expected - 7, previous value - 7.4) [1]. Contract Information - On December 11, the main contract 2602 closed at 1689.0, with a gain of 2.04%, a trading volume of 18,700 lots, and an open interest of 31,600 lots, an increase of 241 lots from the previous day [2]. - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18% [2]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28% [2]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was set at 100 lots [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract has recovered all losses, and full profit - taking is recommended, in line with the daily report's expectations. Attention should be paid to pre - Spring Festival shipping market, and there is no obvious fluctuation in freight rates [2]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, suggesting light - position participation or waiting and seeing [4]. - After the market oscillates upward, attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rate conditions [4]. 3. Content Summaries by Related Aspects Freight Rate Index - On December 8, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1509.10 points, up 1.7% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 960.51 points, up 1.2% from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1397.63 points, down 5.5 points from the previous period. The SCFI European line price was 1400 USD/TEU, down 0.28% from the previous period, and the SCFI US - West route was 1550 USD/FEU, down 5.02% from the previous period [3]. - On December 5, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 972.63 points, up 2.77% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 1024.64 points, up 7.67% from the previous period; the NCFI (US - West route) was 881.66 points, down 7.77% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1121.80 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1449.34 points, up 1.1% from the previous period; the CCFI (US - West route) was 841.86 points, down 1.1% from the previous period [3]. Economic Data - The eurozone's November composite PMI preliminary value was 52.4, slightly lower than October's 52.5, remaining above the boom - bust line of 50. The services PMI was 53.1, higher than the previous value and the expected value, achieving the best monthly performance in a year and a half. The eurozone's December Sentix investor confidence index was - 6.2, with an expected value of - 7 and a previous value of - 7.4 [3]. - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating overall stability in Chinese enterprises' production and business activities. The US October S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 55.2, the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2, and the composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8, all higher than expected [4]. Main Contract Information - On December 10, the main contract 2602 closed at 1665.2, with a gain of 3.41%, a trading volume of 35,900 lots, and an open interest of 31,400 lots, an increase of 669 lots from the previous day [4]. Investment Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract has rebounded after a pull - back, and the fluctuation of far - month contracts has slowed down. Risk - takers are advised to take full profit, not to add positions, not to hold losing positions, and to set stop - losses [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profit when each contract reaches a high, wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, and then judge the subsequent direction [5]. Contract Rules Adjustment - The daily limit and daily loss limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 are adjusted to 18%. - The margin of the company for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. - The daily opening position limit for all contracts from 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5]. Geopolitical News - On December 9 (local time), the UN Secretary - General's spokesman expressed "deep shock and serious concern" about the Houthi rebels' detention of a large number of international agency personnel in Yemen and strongly condemned the transfer of UN staff to a special criminal court, urging the Houthi rebels to withdraw the transfer decision and release all detained personnel [6]. - A senior Hamas official stated on the 9th that any discussion about the second - stage cease - fire in Gaza must be based on the negotiation mediators, the US, and all relevant parties pressuring Israel to fully implement all terms of the first - stage agreement. As long as Israel continues to violate the agreement, the second - stage cease - fire cannot be initiated [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The retracement may be in place, and the main contract has rebounded continuously. It is recommended to take a small - position trial long and focus on the pre - Spring Festival shipping market. The freight rate has no obvious fluctuation [2]. - The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect. The current core is the trend of the spot freight rate. The main contract has had a seasonal rebound, suggesting a light - position participation [4]. - With the mixed long and short information, including some liner companies' price increase announcements and the decline of the latest SCFIS index, future attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Freight Index - On December 1, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1483.65 points, down 9.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 948.77 points, down 14.4% from the previous period [3]. - On November 28, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 972.63 points, up 2.77% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1024.64 points, up 7.67% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 881.66 points, down 7.77% from the previous period [3]. - On November 28, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1403.13 points, up 9.57 points from the previous period; the SCFI European - line price was 1404 USD/TEU, up 2.71% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 1632 USD/FEU, down 0.79% from the previous period [3]. - On November 28, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1121.80 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1449.34 points, up 1.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 841.86 points, down 1.1% from the previous period [3]. 3.2 Economic Data - In October, the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 45.9, the service PMI preliminary value was 51.2, and the composite PMI preliminary value was 49.7. The Sentix investor confidence index's previous value was - 9.2, and the predicted value was - 8.5 [3]. - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - In October, the US's S&P Global service PMI preliminary value was 55.2, the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2, and the composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8 [4]. 3.3 Contract Information - On December 2, the closing price of the main contract 2602 was 1534.2, with a gain of 2.16%. The trading volume was 24,700 lots, and the open interest was 36,300 lots, a decrease of 1,882 lots from the previous day [4]. - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the company's margin for these contracts was adjusted to 28%, and the intraday opening limit for all contracts from 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [5]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Short - term Strategy**: The main contract has rebounded after retracement, and the fluctuation of far - month contracts has slowed down. It is recommended for risk - takers to take a small - position trial long on the main contract. Do not add more positions when the market dives slightly, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [5]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or take a small - position trial [5]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when each contract reaches a high and wait for a pull - back to stabilize before judging the subsequent direction [5].