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天目湖(603136):25Q1利润增长26%,全年业绩增长展望积极
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-04-28 10:43
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within six months [9][16]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 540 million yuan in 2024, a decrease of 14.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 100 million yuan, down 28.8% year-on-year due to external market conditions [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 100 million yuan, a slight decline of 1.6% year-on-year, but a net profit increase of 26.45% year-on-year, indicating effective cost control [1][3]. - The company aims for a revenue of 580 million yuan in 2025, representing an 8.6% growth, and a net profit of 150 million yuan, up 22.8% year-on-year [4]. Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the scenic area business is projected to generate 280 million yuan, down 13.0% year-on-year, with specific declines in revenue from various attractions [2]. - The hotel business is expected to see a revenue drop of 23.1% to 160 million yuan, while the water world business is anticipated to decline by 41.3% to 7.46 million yuan [2]. Profitability Analysis - The gross margin for 2024 is forecasted at 52.4%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, with various business segments experiencing declines in gross margins [3]. - In Q1 2025, the gross margin improved to 41.4%, an increase of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting better cost management [3]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts a net profit of 140.59 million yuan for 2025, with corresponding P/E ratios of 23, 21, and 18 for the years 2025 to 2027 [4][6]. - The projected revenue growth rates for the years 2025 to 2027 are 8.94%, 9.31%, and 9.52%, respectively [6].