北京时间11月18日，满帮集团发布的2025年第三季度财报，呈现出一幅略显矛盾的图景。 财报显示，公司当季营业收入33.6亿元，同比增长10.8%，核心履约订单量同比增长22.3%，用户与新业务均呈增长态势——这似乎是一份稳健的成绩单。 资本市场向来擅长穿透表象，审视肌理。本季度满帮经调整后净利润为9.88亿元，同比下滑20.4%。利润增速与营收增速的"剪刀差"，清晰地指向了成本 高企与业务边际效益递减的现实。财报发布后，17日晚满帮股价应声大跌11.9%，报收10.85美元，22.87倍的市盈率低于全球物流科技平台的平均估值水 平。 而在数据背后，潜伏着更深的治理问题。这个曾经以"消灭货运黄牛"为誓言的平台，在走过十余年发展历程后，似乎正陷入自己构建的商业模式的围城。 平台初创时期，运满满团队（满帮前身）曾与传统货运中介展开激烈竞争，甚至经历过App被封、地推人员受伤等行业阵痛。颇具意味的是，从2013年高 喊"消灭黄牛"，到2025年被业内诟病为"最大的黄牛"，转包问题始终如影随形，成为平台信任体系中一道难以愈合的裂痕。 这种信任损耗与模式缺陷，直接加剧了盈利压力，转包链条不仅分流了本应属于平台的利润，更 ...

Core Viewpoint - Manbang Group's Q2 2025 financial report shows record revenue of 3.239 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 50.5% to 1.265 billion yuan, interpreted as a victory for freight digitization, but the company warns of a significant drop in Q3 revenue growth to 1.3%-4.6% due to rising costs and loss of shippers [1][2] Group 1: Tax Rebate Decline - The freight brokerage service, contributing 36.3% of total revenue, saw only a 1.1% increase in Q2 2025 revenue to 1.178 billion yuan, revealing its vulnerability tied to tax rebates [1][2] - In Q1 2023, tax rebates accounted for 66.92% of freight brokerage revenue, indicating a heavy reliance on government subsidies [2] - As local government financial pressures increase, the growth of tax rebates is slowing, forcing Manbang to pass costs onto shippers [2][5] Group 2: High Interest Rates and Driver Trust Crisis - Manbang's financial products, such as "Driver Loans" and "Manbang Loans," have led to high profits but also significant driver debt issues, with 62% of loan disputes showing actual annual interest rates exceeding 36% [6][8] - Complaints regarding high-interest loans and account suspensions have surged, indicating a growing trust crisis among drivers [8] - Regulatory scrutiny is increasing, with penalties imposed for failing to disclose loan information, highlighting the risks associated with the company's financial practices [8][10] Group 3: Competitive Pressures and User Retention - Despite a marketing spend of 120 million yuan in Q2 2025, new user growth has plummeted from 35% to 12%, and driver order acceptance rates have dropped from 68% to 52% [9] - Competitors like Huolala and Didi Freight are gaining market share, exacerbating Manbang's challenges in maintaining user retention and pricing stability [9][10] - Manbang is attempting to pivot by reducing R&D spending and investing in autonomous driving technology to restructure its cost base [9][10] Group 4: Financial Model and Market Response - Manbang's non-subsidy gross margin is only 15.2%, significantly below the industry expectation of 25%, indicating a need for a sustainable profit model [12] - Following the financial report, the stock price rose by 9.81%, but institutional ratings diverged, reflecting concerns over policy risks and user attrition [12] - The company's reliance on fiscal subsidies and financial arbitrage raises questions about the sustainability of its profit growth [12]