Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Views - Due to the substantial increase in the import of prime coking coal such as Mongolian and Australian coal, the previous supply gap in coking coal has been quickly filled. Considering the further seasonal reduction in hot metal production, the winter storage of carbon elements will turn into a supply - surplus inventory accumulation, and the winter storage market is not worth expecting. However, the coking coal futures price has a neutral discount of about 150 yuan/ton, and the decline in coking coal prices will repair steel - making profits, which may affect the further decline in hot metal production and support the furnace material valuation. So, although coking coal futures are in a phased decline, it is not advisable to chase short positions excessively, and the reverse spread pattern will continue [13] Summary by Directory 1. Mongolian Coal Imports Surge at the End of the Year, Bringing Significant Supply Increases - With the continuous high number of Mongolian coal customs clearance vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port, the market expectation of a surge in Mongolian coal exports at the end of the year is intensifying. If the annual target of the port is about 43 million tons, the remaining daily customs clearance vehicle number should be around 1,320 vehicles/day. The average daily customs clearance vehicle number at the Ganqimaodu Port this week has reached 1,345 vehicles/day, indicating that the end - of - year import scale of Mongolian coal has been realized [1] - The high - level customs clearance, if it lasts until the end of the year, will bring obvious supply increases to the northern coking coal market and expand the delivery source scale of the 2601 coking coal contract. The price of Mongolian 5 raw coal at the Ganqimaodu Port has dropped from 1,180 yuan/ton at the end of October to nearly 1,000 yuan/ton, and the decline is almost the same as that of the futures market. The end - of - year import surge of Mongolian coal is the direct main reason for the decline in coking coal futures sentiment [3] 2. Australian Coal Imports Increase Synchronously, Directly Supplementing High - Quality Prime Coking Coal - The seaborne coal market has regained vitality with the continuous rebound of the domestic coking coal market. The price of Australian prime coking coal, which was significantly resistant to decline in the first half of the year, has remained relatively stable after the coal price rebounded in the second half of the year. Since October, Australian first - line and quasi - first - line prime coking coal have had a relative price advantage over domestic low - sulfur high - quality prime coking coal. Chinese buyers have increased their purchases of Australian coal [6] - Since October, China has purchased more than ten ships of Australian coking coal, with a cumulative import scale of nearly one million tons, which are expected to arrive in mid - to - late December. The price of first - line Australian prime coking coal has risen slightly from $211.5/ton to $214/ton. Although the import cost - effectiveness of Australian coal is gradually lost, the imported Australian coal will directly supplement the high - quality prime coking coal inventory in the coastal market, and together with Mongolian coal, it will form a strong supply shock to the domestic coking coal market [8] 3. There is Still Room for Hot Metal Production Reduction, and the Expectation of Coking Coal Gap Disappears - The current national average daily hot metal production is at a relatively high level of 236.28 tons/day. However, considering the poor steel - making profit and the possible seasonal constraints on production during the heating season, the hot metal production is unsustainable and is expected to drop to slightly below 230 tons/day by the end of the year [9] - Although domestic coal mine production remains weakly stable with a year - on - year output reduction of 6 - 7%, the significant increase in imported coal has quickly filled the previous supply gap in the coking coal market. Considering the further reduction in hot metal production, the coking coal supply and demand will return to the inventory accumulation pattern from December to January. The winter storage demand for carbon elements has not been fully released, and the inventory increase during this period will match the terminal winter storage replenishment. The winter storage market for carbon elements is not worth expecting, and the terminal's active replenishment will be significantly reduced [9][11]