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经济学家宋清辉:美联储减息或致套利交易 非美元投资势受瞩目
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-21 22:27
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's resumption of interest rate cuts is expected to lead to a decrease in dollar interest returns, prompting a shift of global funds from dollar assets to non-dollar assets, particularly in emerging markets with relatively high interest rates and strong economic fundamentals in non-US developed economies [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut interest rates two more times this year, which may encourage investors to borrow low-interest dollars and invest in high-interest non-dollar assets [3]. - The Fed's recent 0.25% rate cut marks the beginning of a new easing cycle, with expectations of continued rate cuts in future meetings [3]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - With the Fed's rate cuts, there is an expectation of increased volatility in risk assets, leading to potential investment opportunities in global equities, certain non-dollar currencies, long-duration high-rated government or corporate bonds, and cyclical commodities [3]. - The reduction in interest rates is likely to boost bond prices, particularly long-term bonds, suggesting an increased allocation to long-duration bonds and high-rated government and corporate bonds [8]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Asset Allocation - The current economic uncertainty may lead to heightened risk aversion in the market, with a focus on the implications of the Fed's actions on various asset classes [9]. - The dollar is expected to weaken against the euro and pound due to the Fed's faster rate cuts compared to other central banks, with a recommendation to focus on currencies like the euro, Australian dollar, and Norwegian krone [10].