Core Viewpoint - The Nikkei average index has reached new highs in September, raising concerns among investors about potential overvaluation and the risk of a market correction similar to past events [2][4][6]. Price Fluctuation Indicators - The Nikkei average index is currently 16% above the 200-day moving average, a level reminiscent of the period before a significant drop in July 2024 [4][5]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 79.6%, indicating overbought conditions as it exceeds the 70% threshold [5][6]. - The price-to-earnings ratio (PER) is at 18.3 times, within the range observed post-Lehman crisis, while the price-to-book ratio (PBR) is at 1.6 times, indicating potential upper limits [5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The credit buying balance is at 4.1891 trillion yen, which is below the year's peak and the levels seen before the summer 2024 drop, suggesting no overheating in this area [6]. - The arbitrage trading buy balance has slightly increased to over 1 billion shares, indicating a mild overheating due to stock splits and other factors [5][8]. - The credit selling balance has reached a six-year high at 1.1229 trillion yen, indicating a significant number of investors are shorting stocks, which could lead to a buying rush if positive news emerges [8]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - There are mixed sentiments regarding the market's future, with some analysts suggesting the Nikkei average could rise to around 47,000 points by year-end due to ongoing corporate stock buybacks [9]. - Despite the current indicators suggesting potential overvaluation, some experts argue that the market may continue to rise unexpectedly, highlighting the unpredictable nature of stock movements [9].

外汇波动率的下降正值关键时刻，由于美元汇率趋于稳定，以美元计价的新兴市场套利交易的收益已经 有所下降。央行的干预措施也帮助控制了市场的波动。因为套利交易(即借入低收益资产以投资于高收 益资产)极易受到短期外汇波动的影响，市场更加平稳就能降低风险。 一项以美元为资金来源的八种新兴市场套利交易在第三季度的表现有所下滑，回报率约为 1.4%。而今 年前两个季度的回报率则超过 4%。高收益的新兴市场货币依然颇具吸引力，墨西哥、巴西和哥伦比亚 的三个月期远期隐含收益率均在 7%或更高。由于外汇波动有所缓解，投资者更加确信即期汇率的波动 不会侵蚀这些收益。 包括Kamakshya Trivedi和Danny Suwanapruti在内的高盛策略师于周三的一份报告中写道，"各类资产的 波动率定价普遍下降"这一现象对新兴市场利差表现是有利的。 智通财经APP获悉，瑞穗和高盛的分析师表示，降低货币波动性有助于减少风险，从而为新兴市场的套 利交易提供了新的支撑。据摩根大通公司的数据，新兴市场货币波动率本季度下降了约 1.3 个百分点， 降幅高于追踪七国集团(G7)货币的同类指标。上周，这两个指数之间的比率降至 2013 年以来的 ...

Group 1: Currency and Economic Outlook - Barclays reports that despite recent negative events, the US dollar has remained resilient, with no significant decline observed since May, even amid weak economic data and challenges to the Federal Reserve's credibility [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the US economy will recover in the coming months, which may support the dollar's continued strength [1] Group 2: Oil and Emerging Markets - Goldman Sachs states that a complete ban on Russian oil imports by the EU is unlikely due to reliance from certain member states like Hungary and Slovakia, and any potential ban would only redistribute oil flows rather than reduce global supply [2] - Goldman Sachs expects emerging market stocks and currencies to rise by the end of the year, raising the MSCI Emerging Markets Index target from 1,370 to 1,480 points, indicating a potential 10% upside [2] Group 3: Domestic Market Insights - Dongfang Jincheng forecasts stable and ample market liquidity by year-end, with potential for a new round of reserve requirement ratio cuts and government bond purchases [4] - CITIC Securities highlights the long video industry benefiting from favorable policies, which may enhance production capacity and efficiency for content creators [6][10] - CITIC Securities notes a recovery in the restaurant industry, with August seeing a year-on-year increase in dining revenue, suggesting structural opportunities for leading companies with strong compliance and quality [8] Group 4: Sector-Specific Developments - CITIC Securities indicates that the carbon fiber industry is in a recovery phase, with strong demand in wind energy and aerospace sectors, recommending attention to high-quality companies with international exposure [9] - China Galaxy Securities observes a slight increase in cement prices due to seasonal demand, with expectations for further price support from rising coal prices [11][12] - China Galaxy Securities also reports positive signals in panel procurement ahead of the overseas promotional season, indicating a potential peak in TV demand [13] Group 5: Electronic Materials - Huatai Securities emphasizes the importance of electronic cloth in the PCB-CCL supply chain, predicting a supply shortage for various specialty electronic cloth products until 2026, and recommends companies with rapid capacity expansion [14][15]

美联储一如预期减息0.25厘，开启新一轮宽松进程。美联储虽小幅调升美国经济增长和通胀预期，但市场普遍预测未来3次议息会议仍有继续减息空间。美 联储减息搅动投资市场，全球资金面临大洗牌，近来各类资产总体呈现震荡态势。有专家分析称，随着美联储减息进程重启，风险资产短期或进入波动期， 部分全球资金有望从「美元资产」流向「非美元资产」，料部分投资者未来或借入低息美元，并将资金投入高息非美元资产，开展套利交易。建议投资者关 注全球股市、部分非美元货币、长久期高评级政府或公司债，及周期性大宗商品的投资机会。 ●香港文汇报记者 倪巍晨 上海报道 内地经济学家宋清辉指出，美联储减息进程重启，美元的利息回报将随之降低，持有美元的收益亦将减少。鉴于此，全球资金或从「美元资产」流向「非美 元资产」，包括利率相对较高的新兴市场，以及经济基本面较强的非美发达经济体。此外，部分国际投资者也可能借入低息美元，并将资金投入高息非美元 资产，开展套利交易。 专家料资金由美元资产流出 restly of the research and and on and on the many of the may be and 著名经济学家宋清辉指出，美 ...

Group 1 - The Turkish central bank significantly lowered interest rates, reducing the one-week repo rate from 43% to 40.5%, exceeding investor expectations by 200 basis points [1] - The overnight lending rate was decreased from 46% to 43.5%, and the overnight borrowing rate from 41.5% to 39% [1] - The central bank's decision reflects a faster pace of easing than many traders anticipated, which may continue to exert pressure on the Turkish lira in the coming months [1] Group 2 - The Turkish lira's exchange rate remained relatively stable at 41.295 lira per US dollar following the interest rate cut [1] - The central bank's statement indicated that while inflation trends are easing, domestic final demand remains weak despite stronger-than-expected GDP growth in the second quarter [1] - The August inflation rate rose to 33%, higher than economists' expectations, prompting major banks like JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley to revise their interest rate cut forecasts [1] Group 3 - The central bank removed the phrase "pursuing the real appreciation of the lira" from its decision document, indicating a shift in its monetary policy framework [5] - The central bank aims to maintain disinflation through "demand, exchange rates, and expectations channels," with potential for slight depreciation of the lira if local assets remain attractive [6] - Analysts suggest that maintaining a faster rate of easing while keeping the lira appreciation standard would be unwise, indicating a potential subtle change in daily currency management [7] Group 4 - Political uncertainty is rising in Turkey, with escalating confrontations between the main opposition party and the judiciary, leading to bond and stock sell-offs [7] - A court case regarding the Republican People's Party (CHP) is set for September 15, which could result in the removal of the party's national leadership and the appointment of a trustee [7]

Group 1 - The convertible arbitrage strategy is experiencing a significant rise, with nearly 6% returns achieved by July, making it one of the best-performing hedge fund strategies in the first seven months of the year [1] - The inflow of funds into this strategy is on track for the largest annual increase in 18 years, driven by stable corporate credit quality and increased stock price volatility among smaller companies, including those related to cryptocurrencies [1][4] - The current market environment is described as a "perfect environment" for harvesting returns through convertible bond strategies, combining stable credit conditions with unprecedented high stock volatility [1][4] Group 2 - Convertible bonds are hybrid instruments that can be converted into equity when stock prices reach certain levels, closely tied to stock volatility [4] - The focus on convertible bonds has shifted as the pool of refinancing targets has narrowed, leading investors to pay more attention to the equity option component of convertible bonds [4] - Despite a general decrease in market volatility since April, individual stocks continue to exhibit significant fluctuations, with the median 30-day realized volatility of Russell 3000 index constituents currently over 40, four times the index's own volatility [4][8] Group 3 - The earnings season has intensified market volatility, creating trading opportunities due to sharp stock price reactions to earnings reports [8] - Stable credit conditions provide a "bond floor" stability for trading these instruments, as evidenced by significant price movements in companies like Fluor Corporation and Array Technologies [8] - The issuance of convertible bonds by cryptocurrency-related companies has become particularly attractive for arbitrage trading, with these companies now accounting for nearly 10% of the convertible bond market, up from almost zero a year ago [9] Group 4 - The surge in new convertible bond issuances has contributed to the current market momentum, with approximately $65 billion issued in the U.S. by August 22, surpassing the total for 2023 and marking the fourth-highest amount for this period in over 20 years [9] - The diversity and scale of new issuances have significantly expanded the opportunity set for convertible arbitrage fund managers, allowing them to profit from volatility differences and credit-equity price spreads [9]

2025.08．21 作者 | 第一财经 周艾琳 8月20日，持续流入港股的南向资金罕见净流出约146.82亿港元，恒升指数当天上涨0.17%，也大幅跑输 上证指数1.04%的涨幅，今年持续领跑的港股会被A股赶上吗？ 截至8月20日收盘，恒生指数今年累计上涨25.45%，领先上证指数12.37%的涨幅。但过去一个月，上证 指数涨幅接近6%，而恒生指数仅为0.69%。在这背后，港元汇率、港元拆息近期迅速飙升引发全球投资 者关注。 8月18日〜19日，1个月香港港元银行同业拆息（HIBOR）连续两天分别上涨56个基点，报2.574%，创 近3个月新高。香港金管局（下称"金管局"）的猛烈"抽水"是主因。 建银国际首席港股策略师赵文利对第一财经记者表示，近期因港元汇率触及7.85弱方兑换保证，金管局 为稳定港元汇率，再次入市干预，先后于8月13日、8月14日买入70.65亿港元和33.76亿港元，银行体系 总结余于8月15日减少至537.16亿港元。今年6月以来，金管局已12次承接港元卖盘，累计承接1199.7亿 港元，相当于今年5月初注入1294亿港元流动性的92.7%。 先"放水"，后"抽水"，一顿操作下来，港元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent outflow of southbound funds from Hong Kong stocks and the rising interest rates have raised concerns about the potential for A-shares to catch up with Hong Kong stocks in performance [3][4][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of August 20, the Hang Seng Index has risen by 25.45% this year, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 12.37% [3][4]. - In the past month, the Shanghai Composite Index has increased by nearly 6%, while the Hang Seng Index has only risen by 0.69% [3][15]. - The recent performance indicates a shift, with A-shares potentially gaining momentum against Hong Kong stocks [15][16]. Group 2: Currency and Interest Rate Dynamics - The Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) surged significantly, with a rise of 56 basis points to 2.574% on August 18-19, marking a three-month high [3][4][7]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) intervened in the market to stabilize the Hong Kong dollar, buying a total of 104.41 billion HKD on August 13 and 14 [4][5]. - The HKMA has intervened 12 times since June, absorbing a total of 1,199.7 billion HKD, which is 92.7% of the liquidity injected in early May [4][5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts expect that the Hong Kong dollar may continue to appreciate, with the potential for further increases in interest rates impacting Hong Kong stocks negatively [5][9]. - The sentiment in the market is shifting, with expectations that the A-share bull market will continue, driven by strong trading volumes and favorable government policies [15][16]. - Despite a cautious sentiment among institutions regarding Hong Kong stocks, the overall bull market trend remains intact, with significant net inflows from southbound funds [16].

Group 1 - Southbound funds experienced a rare net outflow of approximately 14.68 billion HKD on August 20, while the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.17%, significantly underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index's 1.04% increase [1] - As of August 20, the Hang Seng Index has risen 25.45% year-to-date, leading the Shanghai Composite Index by 12.37% [1] - The recent surge in the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) has drawn global investor attention, with the 1-month HIBOR rising sharply to 2.574%, marking a three-month high [1][3] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) intervened in the market to stabilize the Hong Kong dollar, buying a total of 104.41 billion HKD on August 13 and 14 [1] - Since June, the HKMA has intervened 12 times, absorbing a total of 119.97 billion HKD, which is 92.7% of the liquidity injected in early May [1][4] - The recent rise in HIBOR is attributed to the HKMA's actions to manage the exchange rate within the 7.75 to 7.85 range, affecting liquidity and interbank rates [3][4] Group 3 - The recent increase in HIBOR is the second significant rise since May, influenced by both external and internal factors, including the overall weakness of the US dollar [4] - The liquidity in the banking system has decreased to 53.716 billion HKD, which is close to the threshold where significant upward pressure on HIBOR and the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate may occur [4][6] - The market sentiment has shifted, with hedge funds closing their long positions on the US dollar against the Hong Kong dollar, indicating a potential for further appreciation of the Hong Kong dollar [2][6] Group 4 - The performance of the Hong Kong stock market has been under pressure due to rising interest rates and the strong performance of the A-share market, which has gained nearly 6% in the past month compared to the Hang Seng Index's 0.69% [8][9] - Analysts predict that the A-share market may catch up to the performance of the Hong Kong stock market in the latter part of 2025, driven by strong market sentiment and structural differentiation within the market [9][10] - Despite a cautious sentiment among institutions, the overall bull market trend for Hong Kong stocks remains intact, with significant net inflows from southbound funds reaching over 950 billion HKD this year [10][11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report With increasing supply and stable downstream demand, methanol inventories at ports are accumulating rapidly. Against the backdrop of increasing supply, shorting on rallies is the main strategy for methanol trading [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - **Futures Market**: The futures market fluctuated, closing at 2391 (-9/-0.38%) [3]. - **Spot Market**: In production areas, prices range from 2090 to 2230 yuan/ton; in consumption areas, prices range from 2200 to 2320 yuan/ton; at ports, prices range from 2270 to 2310 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information This week (20250818 - 0819), the weekly signing volume (excluding long - term contracts) of methanol sample production enterprises in the Northwest was 28,300 tons (2.83 million tons), a decrease of 7,500 tons (0.75 million tons) from the previous statistical day, a month - on - month decrease of 20.95% [4]. Logic Analysis - **Supply Side**: Coal - producing areas in the Northwest have seen a significant decline in coal mine operating rates, with a rebound in raw coal prices. Methanol production profits are high and stable, and domestic supply is continuously abundant. Import supply is also increasing, with Iran's production recovering [5]. - **Demand Side**: Traditional downstream industries are in the off - season, with a decline in operating rates. MTO device operating rates are rising, but some devices have reduced loads or stopped production. Overall, demand is stable [5]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories are accumulating due to increased imports, while inland enterprise inventories are fluctuating within a narrow range [5]. Trading Strategy - **Single - sided**: Short on rallies, do not chase short positions [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [6]. - **Options**: Sell call options [10].