Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of the U.S. imposing a 50% tariff on imported copper, leading to volatility in the global copper market and affecting prices on various exchanges [1][2]. Price Movements - As of July 10, COMEX copper futures rose to $5.59 per pound, with a weekly high of $5.89, marking a historical peak [1]. - Conversely, LME copper futures experienced a weekly decline of approximately 1.2%, closing at $9,734 per ton, rebounding from a low of $9,553 [1]. - The main copper contract in Shanghai fell by 0.39%, settling at 78,600 yuan per ton, with a cumulative weekly drop of about 2% [2]. Market Dynamics - The announcement of the 50% tariff by President Trump deviated significantly from market expectations of around 25%, leading to an increase in U.S. refined copper prices [2]. - The price spread between COMEX and LME copper expanded to $2,500 per ton, previously nearing $3,000, far exceeding the average stable spread of $300 [4]. - Traders are engaging in arbitrage by buying spot copper and shorting LME to lock in profits, causing LME and domestic copper prices to decline while COMEX prices continue to rise [4]. Inventory Changes - As of July 7, COMEX copper inventory reached 221,000 tons, up from less than 100,000 tons in February [5]. - LME copper inventory decreased sharply from 270,900 tons in mid-February to 97,400 tons, a reduction of over 64% [5]. - The increase in COMEX inventory is not keeping pace with the decrease in LME inventory, indicating potential supply chain issues [5]. Supply Chain Implications - The U.S. tariff policy may lead to a restructuring of the global copper supply chain, with potential cost increases in sectors like automotive and renewable energy [7]. - It is projected that U.S. copper imports could reach 1.36 million tons this year, significantly higher than last year's 900,000 tons, which may lead to increased inventory levels in COMEX [7]. - The global supply of refined copper is not currently short, with expectations of a weakening supply-demand balance by 2025 due to recovering copper mine supplies [7]. Domestic Market Outlook - If the copper tariff is implemented on August 1, there may be delays in the transportation of spot copper, limiting price support in the domestic market [8]. - The decline in Shanghai copper prices has alleviated some cost pressures on downstream processing companies, but price volatility remains a concern [8]. - Companies are advised to closely monitor the price differences between COMEX, LME, and Shanghai copper, particularly for risk management in trading positions [8].

美国对进口铜加征50%关税引发全球铜市剧烈震荡 美国对进口铜加征50%关税，引发全球铜市剧烈震荡。 7月10日，纽约商品交易所（COMEX）铜期货三连涨，截至发稿报5.59美元/磅，周内最高触及5.89美 元/磅，刷新历史高位。 而伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜期货价格则震荡承压，周累计跌幅约1.2%，截至发稿报9734美元/吨，较 周三触及的低点9553美元/吨有所反弹。 沪铜主力合约收跌0.39%，报78600元/吨，周累计跌幅约2%。 山金期货投资咨询部负责人王云飞对第一财经分析称，美国总统特朗普宣布自8月1日起对所有进口铜征 收50%关税，较此前市场预期的约25%差距较大，美国市场的精铜价格因此抬升。 王云飞提示称，美国是精铜的净进口国，对于全球铜市而言，LME的供应才是精铜定价的核心。未来 美铜溢价或会维持一段时间，但因成本抬升导致美国铜产业链下游产能关停或转移，从而引起总体需求 下降、铜价承压。 套利交易过热，价差回落风险激增 截至7月10日，COMEX与LME价差扩大至2500美元/吨，日前一度接近3000美元/吨，远超出二者稳定价 差均值300美元/吨。 中银国际期货研究咨询部有色高级研究员刘超称 ...

"现在COMEX期铜交易价格已基本脱离供需基本面，完全受 到 投 机 套 利 资 本 影 响 ， 没 人 知 道 COMEX 期 铜 将 何 去 何 从。"华尔街大宗商品期货CTA基金经理赵毅直言。目前金融 市场只能明确两大趋势，一是在美国对铜进口征收50%关税的 情况下，更多铜库存会从伦敦等地紧急转运纽约COMEX期铜 市场交割以赚取可观的COMEX—LME期铜价差回报；二是美 国铜库存充盈、非美地区铜库存吃紧状况还将延续，日益扰乱 全球铜产业链稳定性。 作者：陈植 封图：图虫创意 价差套利交易再度活跃 一时激起千层浪。 7月8日晚，美国总统特朗普突然宣布将进口铜征收50%关税。 受此影响，COMEX期铜主力合约涨幅一度超过17%，创下有史以来单日最大涨幅，与此形成反差 的是，美国新一轮贸易战令全球经济衰退风险加大，令LME期铜合约应声下跌。 于是，COMEX期铜与LME期铜的价差一度超过2600美元/吨的峰值。 "华尔街顿时沸腾。"长期参与COMEX期铜交易的华尔街大宗商品CTA策略基金经理赵毅向记者透 露。7月8日晚，众多CTA基金直接买入LME期铜多单同时在COMEX期铜建立空单，通过跨地套利 交易锁 ...

在特朗普宣布消息后，纽约铜期货价格飙升，对国际基准价格的溢价一度达到约25%。那些能够在新关 税实施前将铜运抵美国的交易商，将能够获得更大的利润。 但这也意味着，交易商面临与时间赛跑的局面，如果运输途中关税就已经生效，他们将蒙受巨大亏损。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美国总统特朗普计划对铜征收50%的关税，可能会让已经持续几个月的高利润套利交易陷入困境。 特朗普最新的铜关税标志着铜市场剧烈变化的高潮。美国价格的飙升将促使整个行业竞相将金属运入美 国；美国国内库存将会激增，而全球其他地区则面临越来越严重的供应紧张。 一些急于获得最后一批金属的交易商愿意支付高额溢价，在伦敦金属交易所的价格基础上，提供接近每 吨400美元的溢价，试图吸引原本运往中国的货物转向美国。这些交易商表示，出于商业敏感信息，他 们要求不公开身份。 买家特别愿意为那些符合交割要求的品牌支付更多。因为，这意味着，如果他们无法为铜找到其他买 家，至少可以在交易所上将其转售，作为最后的手段。 据了解市场情况的人士称，近期货物的运输量已开始减少，因为一些交易商开始为关税做准备。但他们 表示，仍有大量铜产品正在运往美国港口 ...

市场洞察 - 重点报道 --- Market Insights - Marquee Market Insights | Markets | Interest Rates 市场洞察 | 市场 | 利率 Hong Kong: How much would Hibor rise? | GS EM Marketstrats ⾹港：Hibor 会涨多少？| ⾼盛新兴市场 策略 Earlier this week, HKMA spent another US$2.5bn defending the peg at 7.85, after spending US$1.2bn last week. This means Aggregate Balance (AB) will decline to HKD144bn (vs peak of HKD173bn) but is still well above pre-May level of HKD44bn, indicating liquidity remains flush. The rise of front-end Hibor has been limited from r ...

香港金管局并不主动设定本地利率，而是根据市场需求注入流动性，HIBOR出现技术性下滑，属于机制内的可预期结果。 4月以来，港元对美元汇率以及香港银行间拆借利率（HIBOR）出现了显著波动，短端利率快速下行，引发市场对香港流动性状况与联系汇率机制运作的广 泛关注。 从联系汇率制度的基础逻辑看，香港金管局并不主动设定本地利率，而是根据市场需求注入流动性，HIBOR出现技术性下滑，属于机制内的可预期结果。 事实上，短期利率走低也有助于香港资本市场的复苏，尤其是在过去几年全球高利率压力下更是如此。考虑到当前中国香港市场风险偏好仍较为温和、资本 流入加速，预计香港金管局在流动性调控方面或将更注重循序渐进。叠加近期利差套利的趋势有所减弱，预计HIBOR将在未来数月内以渐进温和的节奏持 续上行。 多重因素叠加引发阶段性波动 4月以来，港元汇率与HIBOR出现阶段性剧烈波动。港元汇率于5月初多次触发联系汇率制度的强方兑换保证后反弹，6月26日反向触发了弱方兑换保证水 平。从近期市场运行轨迹来看，本轮港元汇率与HIBOR波动主要缘于三方面因素的叠加。 一是国际资本净流入。随着美国政策不确定性的持续抬升，全球风险情绪出现拐点，非 ...

Group 1: Market Dynamics - A significant amount of copper is being transported to the United States, driven by expectations of potential tariffs on copper imports, with estimates of around 500,000 tons currently en route, compared to the usual monthly import volume of 70,000 tons [3] - The price disparity between copper futures on the New York Commodity Exchange (COMEX) and the London Metal Exchange (LME) has widened, with COMEX prices exceeding LME prices by over $1,400 per ton, creating lucrative arbitrage opportunities for traders [4] - The U.S. domestic copper production accounts for only 5% of global supply, while demand is increasing at a rate of 6.2%, significantly higher than the global average of 3.8%, necessitating increased imports to meet domestic needs [6] Group 2: Geopolitical and Strategic Factors - Geopolitical tensions are influencing U.S. strategies to reduce reliance on Asian countries for copper supply, aiming to integrate suppliers from the Americas into its supply chain [7] - The U.S. is attempting to secure its resource supply and reshape the global copper market by building inventory through increased imports [7] Group 3: Impact on Futures Market - The influx of copper into the U.S. has led to significant fluctuations in copper prices, with COMEX prices rising sharply while LME prices also show an upward trend, increasing market volatility [9] - The previously stable price difference between COMEX and LME has become highly variable, raising the risks associated with arbitrage trading [10] Group 4: Inventory Changes - COMEX copper inventory surged to 176,000 tons in the first half of 2025, a 120% increase from the beginning of the year, while LME inventory decreased to 114,000 tons, impacting price dynamics in the futures market [12] Group 5: Effects on Traders and Companies - Traders who anticipated tariff expectations and successfully redirected copper shipments to the U.S. stand to gain substantial profits, while those who failed to act in time may face significant risks and potential losses [13] - Copper smelting companies may experience instability in raw material supply due to the altered supply landscape, affecting production schedules and cost management [14] - Downstream processing companies, particularly in sectors like electrical wiring, are facing increased procurement costs due to rising copper prices, which they struggle to pass on to customers, leading to compressed profit margins [16]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) intervened in the currency market on June 26, 2023, selling USD and buying HKD to maintain the peg of the Hong Kong dollar to the US dollar, marking the first intervention since May 2023 [2][8]. Group 1: Currency Peg Mechanism - The Hong Kong dollar has been pegged to the US dollar since October 17, 1983, maintaining a stable exchange rate between 7.75 and 7.85 HKD per USD through a currency board system [3]. - The mechanism relies on 100% USD asset backing, meaning for every HKD issued, the HKMA must hold an equivalent of 0.127-0.129 USD in foreign reserves [3][4]. - The issuance and redemption of HKD are linked to the deposits and withdrawals of USD by commercial banks, ensuring that changes in USD assets directly affect the HKD monetary base [4]. Group 2: Maintaining Exchange Rate Stability - The HKMA employs an automatic interest rate adjustment mechanism and official interventions to stabilize the HKD exchange rate [5]. - Market forces determine the exchange rate within the 7.75-7.85 range, with arbitrage activities helping to keep the HKD stable [5][6]. - The HKMA intervenes only when the exchange rate hits the extremes of 7.75 or 7.85, avoiding excessive market distortion while maintaining credibility against speculative attacks [6]. Group 3: Recent Market Dynamics - The recent triggering of the weak-side convertibility guarantee was influenced by unexpected US policies under Trump, leading to a depreciation of the USD and a shift of funds towards emerging markets, including Hong Kong [8]. - The Hong Kong stock market saw a significant increase in daily trading volume, averaging over 200 billion HKD since February 2023, indicating a surge in market liquidity [10]. - The revival of IPO activities in Hong Kong has attracted substantial interest from investors, with several high-profile listings contributing to increased demand for HKD [12]. Group 4: Impact of Previous Interventions - In May 2023, the HKD strengthened to 7.75, prompting the HKMA to buy USD and sell 1,294 billion HKD, resulting in a significant increase in the banking system's HKD surplus [13]. - The interbank borrowing rate (HIBOR) dropped sharply from 4.20% to 0.59% due to increased liquidity, leading to a widening interest rate differential between HKD and USD [13][15]. - Recent arbitrage activities have increased the supply of HKD in the market, putting downward pressure on the HKD/USD exchange rate, which led to the recent intervention by the HKMA [15].

本文首发于公众号"私募排排网"。 （点击↑↑ 上图查看详情 ） 在私募界，量化多头、主观多头等热门策略因为出色的业绩表现，已经被投资者广为了解。然 而，还有一部分较为小众的"宝藏"策略，因种种原因尚未被投资者所熟知。为方便投资者参考， 本文将对 FOF、股票多空、套利策略和期权策略 进行介绍，并对这些策略 近一年 的业绩整体表 现展开回顾。 | 二级策略 | 产品数 | 近一月平均收益 | 近半年平均收益 | 近一年平均收益 | 近3年平均收益 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 喜你亲杀 | 571 | 3.77% | 9.43% | 34.36% | 48.74% | | 主观多头 | 1700 | 3.18% | 7.70% | 24.71% | 35.88% | | 主观CTA | 151 | 1.62% | 9.07% | 24.46% | 63.37% | | 宏观策略 | 131 | -0.47% | 7.27% | 23.60% | 45.67% | | 复合策略 | 328 | 1.47% | 6.92% | 20.87% | 36.98% | ...

香港的利率正在下降（Reuters） 通常情况下，在市场上借入低利率的港币、以高利率的美元进行投资，以获取利息差收益的套利交易会 激增。这样就会导致香港方面的资金流动性降低，引发利率上升，使其接近美国利率水平。 但实际上套利交易的规模很小。资金流动性高的状况一直持续，利率持续下降。民间银行的结算性存款 账户余额目前为1700多亿港元，保持在干预前的近4倍的水平。 套利交易没有增长的背景是美国特朗普政府导致的混乱。随着市场上对美元贬值的看法加强，减持包括 股票在内的美国资产的动向日趋活跃。以新兴市场国家货币为中心，外汇市场的波动变得剧烈，也具 有"套利交易的波动率变得过大"（法国巴黎银行的王菊）的一面。 香港当局对利率下降表示欢迎。在流动性上升等导致房地产行情过热的2021～2022年，香港金融管理局 通过发行债券等方式从市场吸收资金，但此次却主动放任不管。 尽管香港采用使货币和货币政策与美国挂钩的"联系汇率制"，但目前利率却单方面贬值。在 美联储的加息局面下，香港也不得不在经济不景气的情况下加息。货币和货币政策与经济周 期不同的美国挂钩的矛盾十分明显…… 香港的利率正在下降。尽管香港采用使货币和货币政策与美国 ...