业绩简评 盈利预测、估值和评级 我们结合 Q2 财报调整此前预期，预计公司 25~27 年营业收 入分别为 49.7/54.3/59.8 亿元，同比+0.9%/+9.4%/+10.0%； 归母净利润分别为 4.7/6.0/6.8 亿元， 同 比 +33.3%/+28.2%/+12.3%，对应 20X/16X/14X PE，维持"买 入"评级。 风险提示 国内民商用消防行业出清不及预期；住宅更新节奏不及预期； 工业消防大客户突破不及预期。 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 11.00 12.00 240826 241126 250226 250526 人民币(元) 成交金额(百万元) 成交金额 青鸟消防 沪深300 2025 年 8 月 25 日，公司发布 2025 年中报。 Q2 整体业务稳中有韧性。1）收入端：1H25 实现营业收入 21.5 亿元，yoy-5.04%；2Q25 实现营业收入 12.67 亿元， Q1/2 同比增速分别为-3.64%/-5.99%。2）利润端：1H25 实 现归母净利 1.59 亿元，yoy-16.06%；2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 14.00 CNY [2] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 4.923 billion CNY in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.98%, and a net profit of 353 million CNY, up 46.42% year-on-year [2] - The company is actively expanding into the fire safety robot sector and has seen steady growth in its industrial and commercial markets [2][7] - The report forecasts revenue growth for 2025 to 2027, estimating 5.182 billion CNY, 5.599 billion CNY, and 6.339 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 5.3%, 8.0%, and 13.2% [2][8] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 883 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 3.64%, and a net profit of 69 million CNY, up 12.37% year-on-year [2] - The company's gross margin is projected to be 37.63%, supported by vertical integration and scale advantages [7] - The company’s total assets are expected to grow from 8.887 billion CNY in 2024 to 11.596 billion CNY by 2027 [8] Market Expansion - The overseas business generated 703 million CNY in revenue in 2024, accounting for 14.27% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 9.92% [7] - The company is enhancing its brand influence and market share through localized production and market development in North America and Europe [7] Product Development - The company is focusing on technological innovation in fire safety robots, integrating AI image analysis and intelligent control systems to enhance product capabilities [7] - The company’s traditional business segments are under pressure, but it is successfully navigating challenges through pricing strategies and supply chain optimization [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 14.00 CNY [2][8]. Core Views - The company has successfully expanded its industrial and industry sectors, actively laying out plans for fire-fighting robots. The revenue for 2024 is reported at 4.923 billion CNY, a slight decrease of 0.98% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is 353 million CNY, down 46.42% year-on-year [2][8]. - The company is experiencing pressure in traditional business demand due to a sluggish real estate market, but it has managed to maintain a steady market share through pricing strategies and supply chain optimization [2][8]. - The overseas market is steadily expanding, with revenue from international operations reaching 703 million CNY, accounting for 14.27% of total revenue, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.92% [2][8]. - The company is showing strong resilience and growth potential in the commercial and industrial sectors, particularly in new economic applications such as renewable energy and data centers [2][8]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the total revenue is projected to be 4.923 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of -1.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 353 million CNY, with a growth rate of -46.4% [2][8]. - The company forecasts revenue growth for 2025-2027 at 5.3%, 8.0%, and 13.2%, respectively, with net profit growth rates of 45.0%, 10.8%, and 19.9% [2][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.70 CNY, 0.77 CNY, and 0.92 CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [2][8].

国内民商用需求承压，国内工/行业消防+海外增长强劲。公司24 年实现营收、归母净利和扣非归母净 利分别为49.2 亿、3.5 亿、3.3 亿，分别同比-1%、-46.4%、-46.3%。1）传统业务需求承压：24 年公司 火灾自动报警及联动控制系统（21.56 亿元/-6.76%）、应急照明与智能疏散系统（10.79 亿 元/-2.94%）、"五小系统"（5.30 亿元/-6.88%）收入均同比下滑，主要受房地产行业深度调整及新国标 实施导致的行业降价去库竞争影响。然而公司通过自研"朱鹮"芯片和算法的不断迭代与扩容应用，火灾 报警毛利率仍逆势提升1.88pct 至44.57%。2）工业消防突破增长：24 年公司工业消防收入2.77 亿 元/+13.04%，"青鸟消防"品牌持续突破工业场景应用壁垒。 3）灭火业务产品升级：国内灭火业务收入5.37 亿元/+20.17%，公司持续推进多认证标准产品研发生 产。4）海外布局深化：24 年公司海外收入7.03亿元/+9.92%，年内公司收购FB 集团旗下品牌进军欧美 家用市场，公司坚持本地化制造+服务，关税政策短期扰动预计对公司出海业务影响不大。 国标更替助推民商用业 ...