火电容量电价

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申万公用环保周报:广东上调火电容量电价,债券征税提升红利资产配置价值-20250804
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-08-04 07:44
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the power and gas sectors, including China Power, Huaneng International, and Kunlun Energy, among others [49][51]. Core Insights - The adjustment of capacity prices for coal and gas power plants in Guangdong is expected to improve profitability for gas power plants significantly, with capacity prices increasing by 65% to 296% depending on the type of gas plant [4][10]. - The rapid development of renewable energy installations in Guangdong has increased the reliance on coal power for flexible peak regulation, with renewable energy capacity reaching 59.13 million kW by the end of 2024, accounting for 26.6% of the total installed capacity [9][10]. - The report highlights the geopolitical factors affecting natural gas prices, with European gas prices experiencing a slight increase due to renewed geopolitical tensions, while U.S. gas prices remain stable [13][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Sector - Guangdong has raised the capacity price for coal power plants to 165 RMB per kW per year starting January 1, 2026, and for gas power plants, prices will range from 165 to 396 RMB per kW per year starting August 1, 2025 [8][10]. - The increase in capacity prices is expected to provide annual revenue boosts of 1.72 billion RMB for Guangdong Power A and 350 million RMB for Guangzhou Development [11]. 2. Gas Sector - As of August 1, 2025, the Henry Hub spot price is $3.00/mmBtu, while the TTF spot price in Europe is €32.95/MWh, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.74% [13][14]. - The report notes that the domestic LNG price is 4388 RMB per ton, showing a week-on-week decrease of 1.06% [32]. 3. Market Review - The gas sector outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, while the public utility, power, and environmental sectors lagged behind [39]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - The National Energy Administration has released guidelines to enhance the management of natural gas pipeline transportation prices, promoting transparency and optimizing resource allocation [37]. - The report discusses the performance of key companies, including Huaneng International and Inner Mongolia Huadian, with varying revenue and profit trends [44].