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化工日报-20250722
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 12:48
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not specified [1] - Methanol: Not specified [1] - Pure Benzene: Not specified [1] - Styrene: Not specified [1] - Ethylene: ★★★ (Positive trend) [1] - Plastics: Not specified [1] - PVC: Not specified [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ (Positive trend) [1] - PX: Not specified [1] - PTA: ★★★ (Positive trend) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ (Slightly positive) [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆★ (Slightly positive) [1] - Glass: Not specified [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ (Positive trend) [1] - Bottle Chip: Not specified [1] - Propylene: Not specified [1] Core Views - The olefin and polyolefin futures markets showed different trends. Olefin futures had a strong start, but the propylene fundamentals were weak. Polyolefin futures rose, but the fundamentals remained soft [2]. - The pure benzene and styrene markets had different performances. Pure benzene had short - term support and different monthly spread operation suggestions. Benzene - styrene had a price increase, but the supply - demand contradiction was difficult to improve [3]. - In the polyester market, PX and PTA were stable but faced supply - demand issues. Ethylene glycol was short - term strong but supply might increase. Short fiber had policy support and mid - term potential, while bottle chips had limited profit - repair drivers [5]. - The methanol market rose due to cost - side news, and its sustainability was uncertain. The urea market was expected to be volatile and strong in the short term [6]. - The PVC market was strong due to news, and the caustic soda market was also strong under macro influence [7]. - The soda ash and glass markets were affected by macro and upstream news, and their long - term trends depended on capacity reduction implementation [8]. Section Summaries Olefin - Polyolefin - Olefin futures opened higher and closed up on the first day, expected to be strong in the short term. However, the propylene supply - demand was imbalanced, and it was in the off - season [2]. - Polyolefin futures rose, but the fundamentals were weak. Polyethylene demand was poor, and polypropylene downstream demand was also weak [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene spot prices slightly declined, but the price trend was upward. It had short - term support from inventory and seasonal expectations. Different monthly spread operations were suggested for different periods [3]. - Benzene - styrene futures rose. Supply and demand both increased slightly, and the inventory continued to accumulate, with the supply - demand contradiction difficult to improve [3]. Polyester - PX and PTA were stable, with PTA continuing to accumulate inventory and having limited supply - demand drivers. Ethylene glycol was short - term strong but might face supply increases. Short fiber had policy support and mid - term potential, while bottle chips had limited profit - repair drivers [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures rose due to cost - side news, and its upward trend's sustainability was uncertain. The inventory of production enterprises changed little, and the coastal area had sufficient supply [6]. - Urea futures were expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, with supply sufficient, demand structure changing, and policy support [6]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC was strong due to news, and the industry had some old - age capacity. The manufacturer's inventory decreased slightly, and the social inventory increased [7]. - Caustic soda was strong under macro influence, with profit improvement and attention to old - age capacity reduction [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash had a daily limit up, with inventory decreasing and supply under high pressure. The photovoltaic industry continued to cut production [8]. - Glass had a daily limit up, with prices rising. Its long - term trend depended on capacity reduction implementation [8].