中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议 20日上午在北京开始举行,并就《中共中央关于制定国 民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议（讨论稿）》向全会作了说明。中国期货市场监控中心发文 称，2025年10月9日，我国期货市场资金总量突破2万亿元，约为2.02万亿元，较2024年底增长24%。继 2021年2月突破万亿、2022年6月突破1.5万亿后，期货市场资金总量再上新台阶。2025年10月9日，期货 公司客户权益合计约为1.91万亿元，较2024年底增长24%。上期所原油期货2512合约夜盘收跌0.16%， 报438.40元人民币/桶。沪金夜盘收涨2.48%，沪银收涨1.62%。 重点品种 ：股指、贵金属、铜 股指 ： 美国三大指数上涨，上一交易日股指小幅回升，通信行业领涨，有色金属行业领跌，市场成交 额 1.75万亿元。资金方面，10月17日融资余额减少273.03亿元至24128.35亿元。最近中美关税风波多变 带来股指多空转换，与此同时10月20日至23日二十届四中全会召开，资金相对审慎。经过9月的高位震 荡，我们认为股指将再次进入方向选择阶段。资金面来看，国内流动性环境有望延续宽松，居民有望加 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - Finance**: Index futures are recommended to be bought on dips in the medium - long term; Treasury bonds are advised to be kept under observation [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are for range trading; Glass is recommended to be kept under observation [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended to be held long on dips; Aluminum is advised to set up long positions on pullbacks; Nickel is recommended to be kept under observation or shorted on rallies; Tin is for range trading; Gold is to be bought on dips; Silver is for range trading [1][11][13][18] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol are expected to oscillate; Polyolefins are to have wide - range oscillations; Soda ash 01 contract is for a short - selling strategy [1][21][23][24][31] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to oscillate; PTA is for narrow - range oscillations; Apples and jujubes are expected to oscillate strongly [1][33][35][36] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs are to be shorted on rallies; Eggs are to be shorted on rallies; Corn is for wide - range oscillations; Soybean meal is for low - level oscillations; Oils are expected to have limited pullbacks [1][38][40][44][45][50] Core Views - The overall market is affected by various factors such as macro - policies, international trade relations, supply - demand fundamentals, and seasonal factors. Different industries and varieties have different investment strategies based on their specific situations [5][8][11] Summaries by Categories Macro - Finance - **Index Futures**: On October 13, the A - share market opened low and closed high. The market may oscillate, but is optimistic in the medium - long term, with a strategy of buying on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury futures rebounded. The bond market may oscillate around the theme of Sino - US game, and it is advisable to keep under observation [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Affected by rainfall and weak demand, the pit - mouth price shows a differentiated trend. There is an expected increase in demand for early heating, and it is for range trading [8] - **Rebar**: The price oscillated down on Monday. The static valuation is low, and the demand in October is to be focused on. It is expected to be weak first and then strong, with a suggestion to go long around 3000 for RB2601 [8] - **Glass**: Some enterprises raised prices slightly, but the shipment was restricted. The supply increased, and the inventory rose. The demand is weak. It is advisable to keep under observation, focusing on the changes in Shahe production lines [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by Sino - US trade relations, the price may have high - level oscillations. The long - term supply - demand outlook is optimistic, and it is recommended to hold long on dips [11] - **Aluminum**: The bauxite price declined, the production capacity increased steadily, the demand is in the peak season, and the inventory accumulation is normal. It is advisable to set up long positions on pullbacks [13] - **Nickel**: The new RKAB policy brings uncertainty. The supply is in surplus in the medium - long term. It is recommended to keep under observation or short on rallies [18] - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream consumption is warming up. It is for range trading, with a reference range of 260,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton for the SHFE tin 11 contract [18] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by US economic data and interest - rate cut expectations, they are expected to oscillate. It is advisable to trade cautiously and build positions after sufficient pullbacks [19][20] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to oscillate weakly, with the 01 contract temporarily focusing on the 4850 pressure [21][22] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is high, the demand is increasing marginally, and it is expected to oscillate, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2380 - 2530 range [23][24] - **Styrene**: The cost - profit situation is not good, the inventory is high, and it is expected to oscillate weakly, with a focus on the 6600 - 6900 range [24][25] - **Rubber**: The supply is expected to increase, and the price may oscillate, with a focus on the 15,000 support [26][27] - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, the demand is scattered, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to oscillate, focusing on factors such as compound fertilizer production and exports [28] - **Methanol**: The supply is recovering, the demand from the main downstream is strong, and it is expected to oscillate [30] - **Polyolefins**: The supply pressure is large after the festival, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The PE 2601 and PP 2601 contracts are expected to oscillate weakly, focusing on the 6900 and 6600 supports respectively [30][31] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak after the festival, and the inventory is accumulating. The 01 contract is for a short - selling strategy [32] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation has changed, and there is uncertainty in Sino - US relations. The market may oscillate with a bearish expectation [33][34] - **PTA**: The crude oil price is weak, the cost support is insufficient, and the PTA is accumulating inventory. It is for narrow - range oscillations in the 4500 - 4750 range [34][35] - **Apples**: Affected by weather, the supply time of red apples is postponed. The quality is lower, and the price may oscillate strongly [35][36] - **Jujubes**: The sales during the National Day were flat. The new - season jujubes are about to be harvested, and the price may oscillate strongly [36] Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: The short - term price is under pressure, and the supply is large in the medium - long term. Different contracts have different strategies, such as reducing short positions for the 11 contract and short - selling for the 01, 03, 05 contracts in the long - term [38][39] - **Eggs**: The demand is weak after the festival, and the supply is sufficient. The short - term price may oscillate at a low level. The 11 - contract short positions can be partially closed, and the 12 and 01 contracts are to wait for rallies to short - sell [40][41][42] - **Corn**: The new corn is on the market, and the supply is sufficient in the short term. The demand is weak, and the price may oscillate. The 11 - contract is for a short - selling strategy, and an attention is to be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [43][44] - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by the harvest pressure and slow exports of US soybeans, the domestic soybean meal may oscillate at a low level, focusing on the support of 2900 - 2930 for the M2601 contract [45] - **Oils**: The short - term pullback is limited. The 01 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil should focus on the support levels of 8200 - 8250, 9200 - 9300, and 9800 - 9900 respectively, with a strategy of going long after the pullback [50]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-10-13 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，9月份，官方PMI为49.8，比上月上升0.4个百分点，制造业景气度有所 改善，但仍位于收缩区间。原油中长期 "供增需减" 格局未改，对聚烯烃成本端支撑有限。10 日，特朗普威胁对中国加征100%关税，中美贸易争端升级可能性再度提升，油价大幅回落，供需 端，新增宁波金发产能落地，货源供应充裕，塑编受旺季支撑表现良好，管材需求偏弱。当前PP 交割品现货价6760（-20），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： PP 2601合约基差35，升贴水比例0.5%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PP综合库存68.1万吨（+16.1），偏空； • 4. 盘面： PP主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long-term bullish on stock indices, hold a wait-and-see attitude towards government bonds [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Adopt range trading for coking coal and rebar, and go long on glass at low prices [1][7][8] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Wait and see or go long on copper at low prices for short-term trading; wait for a pullback to go long on aluminum; wait and see or go short on nickel at high prices; conduct range trading for tin, gold, and silver [1][10][11][16] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to fluctuate; conduct a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage for soda ash; polyolefins are expected to have wide-range fluctuations [1][20][22][24][28][31] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate; PTA is expected to fluctuate within a range; apples are expected to fluctuate strongly; jujubes are expected to fluctuate weakly [1][33][35] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Go short on pigs and eggs at high prices; corn is expected to have wide-range fluctuations; soybean meal is expected to have range fluctuations; oils are expected to fluctuate strongly [1][37][40][41][43][45] Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market analyses for various futures products across different industries. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, cost, macroeconomic policies, and international events to assess the market trends of each product and offer corresponding trading suggestions. Summary by Industry Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: The A-share market showed a trend of opening low and closing high on Wednesday. Driven by multiple positive news in the chip industry, the technology growth sector rebounded strongly. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the long term [5] - **Government Bonds**: The bond market continued its downward trend on Wednesday, with the focus of the decline shifting from active bonds to non-active bonds and credit bonds. It is advisable to maintain a wait-and-see attitude due to potential negative feedback from selling and redemptions [5] Black Building Materials - **Double Coking Coal**: Multiple factors have boosted market sentiment, leading to a "Golden September" in the coal industry. Coal prices have risen across the board, and the sales of surrounding coal yards are active. It is recommended to conduct range trading [7] - **Rebar**: The rebar futures price fluctuated on Wednesday. The static valuation has slightly increased, but the demand is still weak year-on-year. It is advisable to go long on dips, focusing on the 3100 - 3250 range for the RB2601 contract [7] - **Glass**: The spot prices of major glass manufacturers have increased, and the market sentiment has improved. The fundamentals are neither good nor bad, with weak support from demand in the peak season and potential positive factors from macro news and environmental policies. It is recommended to maintain a long position in the 01 contract [8] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper mine supply has been disrupted, and the consumption is expected to gradually recover during the pre-holiday stocking period. The copper price is expected to remain high before the holiday, and it is recommended to wait and see or go long at low prices for short-term trading [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite has declined, while the production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum has increased. The demand has entered the peak season, but the inventory is still accumulating. It is recommended to go long at low prices and consider a long AD and short AL arbitrage strategy [11] - **Nickel**: The price of nickel ore remains firm, while the refined nickel is in an oversupply situation. The price of nickel iron has slowed down, and the stainless steel price is weak. It is recommended to go short moderately at high prices [16] - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream consumption is recovering. The tin price is expected to be supported, and it is recommended to conduct range trading, referring to the 26.5 - 280,000 yuan/ton range for the Shanghai Tin 10 contract [16] - **Silver and Gold**: The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, and the market expects further rate cuts. The prices of silver and gold are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to conduct range trading, referring to the 9800 - 10500 range for the Shanghai Silver 12 contract and the 820 - 855 range for the Shanghai Gold 12 contract [17] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. The inventory is high, and the export sustainability is uncertain. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the 01 contract temporarily focusing on the 4850 - 5050 range [20] - **Caustic Soda**: The macro outlook is positive, but the weak reality is suppressing the market. It is expected to fluctuate, with the 01 contract temporarily focusing on the 2450 - 2650 range [22] - **Styrene**: The cost and supply are under pressure, and the demand is limited. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, temporarily focusing on the 6700 - 7100 range [24] - **Rubber**: The raw material price is firm, and the downstream demand is stable. However, the market is affected by pre-holiday risk aversion and potential reserve releases. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the 15500 level as the support [26] - **Urea**: The supply has increased, the agricultural demand is scattered, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 1600 - 1630 for the 01 contract and the positive arbitrage opportunity after the 1 - 5 spread weakens further [27] - **Methanol**: The supply has decreased, and the demand from the methanol-to-olefins industry has increased. The inventory is high, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2330 - 2450 range [28] - **Polyolefins**: The supply of polyethylene has increased, while the supply of polypropylene has decreased. The demand has improved, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected to fluctuate in the low range, with the L2601 contract focusing on the 7100 - 7500 range and the PP2601 contract focusing on the 6800 - 7200 range [28][29] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market is still weak, but the futures price has risen due to the increase in glass prices. It is recommended to conduct a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage [31] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply and demand situation has improved, but the new cotton production is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [33] - **PTA**: The international oil price has risen, and the supply and demand are expected to decrease. It is expected to fluctuate within the 4550 - 4800 range [33][34] - **Apples**: The prices of early-maturing apples are firm, and the late Fuji apples are starting to be bagged. It is expected to maintain a strong trend [35] - **Jujubes**: The Xinjiang jujubes are entering the sugar-accumulating stage, and the consumption is weak. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [35] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The pig price is under pressure due to the increase in supply and the high weight. It is recommended to take profit on short positions in the 11, 01, and 03 contracts, go short on rebounds, and pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [37][38] - **Eggs**: The short-term pre-holiday demand is weakening, and the long-term supply pressure is still large. It is recommended to go short at high prices or hold put options, and be cautious about shorting in the 12 and 01 contracts in the short term [39][40] - **Corn**: The new corn supply will ease the tight supply of the old corn. It is recommended to take a bearish view, wait for a rebound to go short lightly, and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [41][43] - **Soybean Meal**: The price is under pressure in the short term due to the cancellation of Argentina's export tariffs, but the downside space is limited due to the low US soybean stock-to-use ratio and cost support. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 2930 for the M2601 contract [43][44][45] - **Oils**: The market is expected to bottom out and rebound slightly after digesting the impact of Argentina's cancellation of export tariffs. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, control positions, and pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunities for rapeseed oil 11 - 1, 1 - 5, and the rapeseed - palm oil price spread [45][47][51]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold has a clear long - term driver due to the US fiscal deficit, debt expansion, and central banks' gold - buying. The expectation of the Fed's further interest rate cuts keeps the bullish sentiment alive [2][20]. - Crude oil prices are affected by EU sanctions on Russia and US drilling well numbers. Attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [3][14]. - The Chinese capital market is in the initial stage of strategic allocation. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are more defensive [4][11][12]. - The "9·24" policy package has strengthened the "stability" and accelerated the "activity" of China's capital market [7]. - Manufacturing enterprises should increase investment in the whole process of data collection, storage, calculation, management, and application [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main News on the Day - **International News**: South Korea and the US have differences in the commercial feasibility guarantee of a $350 billion investment. South Korea plans to increase defense spending and hopes to resolve the tariff issue with the US [6]. - **Domestic News**: Since the implementation of the "9·24" policy package, the "stability" of China's capital market has been consolidated, and the "activity" has been accelerated. As of September 18, the margin trading balance was 24,024.65 billion yuan. The A - share market's daily trading volume has exceeded 3 trillion yuan several times this year, and the total market value has reached over 100 trillion yuan. In August, the number of new A - share accounts increased significantly [7]. - **Industry News**: The director of the National Data Bureau emphasized that manufacturing enterprises should increase investment in data - related processes to promote the implementation of "AI +" in the industry [8]. 3.2 Daily Returns of External Markets - The FTSE China A50 futures decreased by 0.17%, ICE Brent crude oil decreased by 1.27%, London gold spot increased by 1.22%, London silver increased by 3.24%, ICE No. 11 sugar increased by 0.31%, ICE No. 2 cotton decreased by 0.93%, CBOT soybeans decreased by 1.23%, CBOT soybean meal decreased by 0.32%, CBOT soybean oil decreased by 1.26%, CBOT wheat decreased by 0.52%, and CBOT corn decreased by 0.06% [9]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The US stock market rose, while the previous trading day's stock index mainly corrected. The coal and non - ferrous sectors led the rise, and the automobile and pharmaceutical sectors led the decline. The market trading volume was 3.17 trillion yuan. The financing balance decreased on September 18. The market is in a high - level consolidation stage, but the long - term strategic allocation of the Chinese capital market has just begun [4][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds continued to fall, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond rose to 1.80%. The central bank increased open - market operations, but the money market tightened. The Fed's interest rate cut increased the policy space for the domestic central bank, but the short - term money market and the high - level shock of the equity market led to the repeated low - level performance of bond futures [13]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: Crude oil prices dropped 1.55% at night. The EU proposed the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, including energy and finance. The US drilling well number increased. Attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [3][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fluctuated at night. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants increased, while the overall methanol plant operating load decreased slightly. The coastal methanol inventory increased, and the short - term trend is bearish [15]. - **Rubber**: The natural rubber futures declined last week. The supply may increase, the bonded - area inventory decreased, and the tire production increased. The price may be supported by inventory reduction and rainfall, and the short - term decline is expected to be limited, with a possible oscillatory trend [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins closed down. The spot market is mainly affected by supply and demand. The inventory is improving, and the decline in crude oil prices has stopped, which supports the chemical products. However, the market is worried about future demand, and polyolefins may continue to oscillate in the low - level range [17][18]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures rebounded slightly. The market supply - demand relationship is slowly recovering, and attention is focused on the supply - side reduction. The inventory of glass production enterprises decreased this week. Soda ash futures also rebounded slightly, and its production enterprise inventory decreased [19]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: After the Fed's interest rate decision, gold and silver prices first declined and then strengthened on Friday night. The US initial jobless claims decreased, and the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The long - term driver of gold is clear, and the expectation of further rate cuts maintains the bullish sentiment [2][20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices rose 0.29% at night. The concentrate supply is tight, but the smelting output is growing. The power industry is growing, while the real estate is weak. Copper prices may fluctuate within a range [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices dropped 0.61% at night. The processing fee of zinc concentrate has increased, and the smelting output is expected to rise. The inventory of galvanized sheets increased. The short - term supply - demand may turn to surplus, and zinc prices may fluctuate weakly within a range [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly production increased, and the inventory decreased. The demand for related materials also changed. Due to the expected mining - right change, the bullish logic is weakened, but the inventory reduction and pre - holiday procurement may support the price, and it may oscillate in the short term [23][24]. - **Black Metals** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke futures oscillated at a high level on Friday night. The steel output was basically flat, and the inventory increased. The short - term inventory pressure and profit reduction restrict the price, while policy expectations and demand support the price [25]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills have resumed production, and the demand for iron ore is supported. The global iron ore shipment has decreased, and the port inventory is decreasing rapidly. The market is optimistic about the future trend, considering the Fed's interest rate cut and pre - holiday replenishment [26]. - **Steel**: The profitability of steel mills remains stable, and the steel supply pressure is increasing. The steel inventory is accumulating, and the steel export situation is mixed. The market supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the hot - rolled coil performs better than the rebar [27]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: The soybean and rapeseed meal futures were strong at night. The USDA report had a neutral - to - bearish impact on the market. The positive signal of Sino - US trade relations may put pressure on the domestic market [28]. - **Edible Oils**: The soybean and palm oil futures were weak at night, while the rapeseed oil futures rose slightly. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and the market is affected by the US biodiesel policy and the Fed's interest rate cut, with an expected oscillatory trend [29][30]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in the inventory - accumulation stage, and the Brazilian sugar production and export situation is changing. The domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory but is dragged down by import pressure. The short - term trend is weak, with a possible rebound [31]. - **Cotton**: The ICE US cotton futures declined. The international cotton supply pressure remains, and the domestic market is in the new - cotton acquisition stage. The new - cotton pre - sale and acquisition expectations support the price, but the high - yield expectation and weak downstream demand limit the upward momentum. The short - term trend is oscillatory [32]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index of container shipping to Europe weakened rapidly on Friday, with the October contract falling below 1100 points. The SCFI European line price decreased, and the freight rate continued to decline in September. The shipping capacity will decrease in October, and the decline rate of freight rates may slow down after the National Day holiday [33].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not explicitly stated, but market is in a weak state [6] - Methanol: Not explicitly stated, continues to fluctuate at a low level [6] - Pure Benzene: Not explicitly stated, price is at a low level with potential improvement [3] - Styrene: Not explicitly stated, supply - demand situation has improved [3] - Polypropylene: Not explicitly stated, supply may slightly decrease, demand is weak [2] - Plastic: Not explicitly stated, no specific rating - related content provided - PVC: Not explicitly stated, runs with an upward bias under macro - expectations [7] - Caustic Soda: Not explicitly stated, expected to be in a wide - range oscillation pattern [7] - PX: Not explicitly stated, no specific rating - related content provided - PTA: Not explicitly stated, price is driven by raw materials, pay attention to device reduction [5] - Ethylene Glycol: Not explicitly stated, at a low - level oscillation [5] - Short Fiber: Not explicitly stated, positive configuration for near - month contracts [5] - Bottle Chip: Not explicitly stated, long - term pressure from over - capacity [5] - Glass: Not explicitly stated, runs with an upward bias, price may follow macro - sentiment [8] - Soda Ash: Not explicitly stated, runs strongly, long - term supply surplus [8] - Propylene: Not explicitly stated, supply is expected to increase, demand support may weaken [2] 2. Core Views - The chemical futures market shows a mixed trend, with different products having their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends. Some products are affected by factors such as new device production, seasonal demand changes, and inventory levels [2][3][5] - In general, many products are facing the influence of supply - demand relationships and macro - factors, and price trends are complex. Some products may follow macro - sentiment, while others are mainly driven by raw materials or cost factors [5][6][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene: The futures main contract closes slightly higher. Supply is expected to increase, and demand support may weaken as some downstream devices stop work [2] - Polyolefins: The futures main contract fluctuates narrowly. PE demand increases with the rise of downstream factory operating rates, and supply decreases due to many domestic maintenance enterprises. PP supply may slightly decrease, but downstream procurement enthusiasm is restricted [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure Benzene: The night - session price opens high and closes low. Weekly production slightly increases, and the processing margin oscillates at a low level. The domestic market supply - demand may improve in the third quarter, but high import volume expectations suppress market sentiment [3] - Styrene: The futures main contract fluctuates narrowly. Supply contracts, driving the spot price to stabilize and rise slightly. Downstream demand is supported by good profits and increased operating rates [3] Polyester - PTA: New device production is postponed. TA - PX spread oscillates. It is in a continuous de - stocking state, but processing margin and basis weaken. Demand shows a good trend, but polyester filament inventory is relatively high and profit is poor [5] - Ethylene Glycol: It oscillates at a low level. Domestic production decreases slightly, and port inventory continues to decline. Pay attention to the trial - run of new devices [5] - Short Fiber: Supply - demand is stable, and price fluctuates with cost. Before the National Day, downstream has restocking expectations, and near - month contracts can be configured long [5] - Bottle Chip: Downstream has rigid demand procurement. Basis and processing margin rebound, but over - capacity is a long - term pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol: The main contract continues to fluctuate at a low level. Import volume decreases, and port inventory accumulation slows down. Demand from the olefin industry increases, and port goods flow to the inland. Pay attention to overseas gas - restriction [6] - Urea: The market remains weak. Supply is sufficient, and production enterprises continue to accumulate inventory. Industrial demand recovers, and agricultural demand has a phased replenishment expectation [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC: Runs with an upward bias under macro - expectations. Supply pressure is high. Downstream operating rates increase slightly, and pay attention to pre - holiday restocking demand [7] - Caustic Soda: Runs with an upward bias in an oscillatory manner. Regional performance is differentiated. Overall inventory is small, and it is expected to oscillate widely [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda Ash: Runs strongly. Inventory decreases, and production remains high. Pay attention to macro - favorable policies, and long - term supply is in surplus [8] - Glass: Runs strongly. Inventory decreases, and downstream restocking sentiment increases. Capacity slightly recovers, and processing orders improve. Price may follow macro - sentiment [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Propylene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the fundamentals and market trends of various chemical products including olefins, pure benzene, polyester, coal - chemical, chlor - alkali, and soda ash - glass sectors, and provides insights on supply, demand, and price trends for each product [2][3][5][6][7][8] 3. Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - **Propylene**: The main contract of propylene futures fluctuated widely. Supply is expected to increase as some PDH units may restart, and demand may weaken as downstream units face cost pressure and some may stop production [2] - **Polyolefins**: The main contract of polyethylene futures rose and then fell. Polyethylene's demand from the agricultural film industry is strong, while other downstream industries have limited demand growth. Polypropylene's supply may decrease slightly due to increased maintenance, but downstream demand is weak [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: The night - session price rebounded and then fell slightly in the morning. Supply and demand may improve in the third quarter, and the price has reached a low level [3] - **Styrene**: The main contract of styrene futures rose with a slow upward - moving center of gravity. Supply pressure has eased, and demand is supported by good downstream profits and increased downstream开工 [3] Polyester - **PX and PTA**: Prices rebounded at night and fell in the morning. PX production growth is limited, and PTA is de - stocking, but its price is driven by raw materials. Terminal demand is improving, but polyester filament inventory is high and profit is poor [5] - **Ethylene Glycol**: New device news is pressuring the far - month contract. Domestic production has decreased slightly, and port inventory is at a low level [5] - **Short Fiber**: Supply and demand are stable, and prices fluctuate with costs. There is a positive outlook before the National Day [5] - **Bottle Chip**: Downstream demand is for rigid needs, and the basis has rebounded, but long - term over - capacity is a pressure [5] Coal - chemical - **Methanol**: The near - month contract is weak. Short - term supply - demand gap may narrow, but high inventory is a long - term pressure [6] - **Urea**: The main contract lacks continuous upward momentum. Supply is sufficient, and demand is improving, but the market remains in a loose supply - demand situation [6] Chlor - alkali - **PVC**: Driven by macro expectations, it is running strongly. Supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory is high [7] - **Caustic Soda**: It is oscillating. Supply is fluctuating, and demand has different situations in different downstream industries, with a wide - range oscillation expected [7] Soda Ash - Glass - **Soda Ash**: It is running strongly. Inventory has decreased, and short - term it may follow macro - sentiment fluctuations, with long - term over - supply [8] - **Glass**: It is running strongly. Inventory has decreased, and downstream replenishment sentiment has increased [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Propylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] Report's Core Views - The overall chemical market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. Some products are facing supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by factors such as new device commissioning, seasonal demand, and inventory changes [2][3][5]. - In the short - term, market sentiment is mixed, with some products having potential for improvement and others being under pressure. Long - term trends are also influenced by factors like overseas policies and new capacity additions [6][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures rose with market lacking news guidance and downstream demand mainly for rigid needs, and enterprise shipment differentiation suppressing prices [2]. - Polyolefin futures fell. PE downstream has a peak season for agricultural film, with increased purchasing, but other industries have limited demand. PP supply may decrease due to maintenance, but downstream procurement is restricted by poor profits and low confidence [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices fluctuated around 6000 yuan/ton. Supply and demand may improve in Q3, but currently downstream profitability, import expectations, and oil prices are dragging down the price [3]. - Styrene futures fell. Supply pressure eased as the operating rate declined, and downstream demand was strong. Port inventory decreased with an upward - moving spot price [3]. Polyester - PX and PTA prices were in a cross - star pattern. PTA was driven by raw materials, with inventory decreasing but processing margins and basis weakening. Terminal demand was improving, but polyester yarn inventory was high and profit was poor [5]. - Ethylene glycol was pressured by new device news. Domestic production decreased slightly, and port inventory continued to decline [5]. - Short fiber supply and demand were stable, with prices following costs. It was recommended to go long on the near - month contract before the National Day [5]. - Bottle chip downstream had rigid demand, with basis and processing margins rebounding slightly, but long - term over - capacity was a pressure [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures rebounded. Coastal demand increased, and domestic device operating rates decreased. However, high inventory limited the market's upside potential, and long - term overseas gas restrictions need to be monitored [6]. - Urea futures rebounded. Supply was sufficient, and demand from both industry and agriculture improved. The market remained in a supply - demand - loose situation [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC was slightly stronger. It had a high - supply, low - demand, and high - inventory pattern, and new production in September increased supply pressure [7]. - Caustic soda fluctuated. The industry's inventory decreased, but supply pressure remained due to high profits, and prices were expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash was slightly stronger. Inventory decreased, and supply was high. In the short - term, it was at a low valuation, and long - term supply was in surplus [8]. - Glass was stronger. Inventory decreased, and processing orders improved. It was at a low valuation and expected to follow macro - sentiment [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The supply of propylene is tight, downstream demand is strong, and the price is expected to rise; the supply of polyolefin is under pressure, and the demand recovery is slow, with limited upward price drivers [2] - The domestic pure benzene market may improve in the third quarter, but the current price is in low - level shock; the price of styrene is supported in the short - term [3] - PTA price is driven by raw materials, and the processing margin is low; ethylene glycol price is weak; short fiber can be bullishly allocated in the near - term; bottle chip has limited processing margin recovery space [5] - Methanol is expected to stabilize in shock; urea market is expected to remain weak [6] - PVC price may fluctuate weakly; caustic soda price may show a wide - range shock pattern [7] - Soda ash is suitable for short - selling at high rebounds; glass price may show a wide - range shock pattern [8] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate narrowly around the 5 - day moving average, with tight supply and strong downstream demand [2] - Polyolefin futures remain in a low - level range, with slow demand recovery and limited upward price drivers [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene price is in low - level shock, with possible improvement in the third quarter [3] - Styrene price is supported in the short - term due to regional downstream stocking [3] Polyester - PTA price follows the raw materials, with low processing margin and increasing device maintenance [5] - Ethylene glycol price is weak, affected by new device commissioning [5] - Short fiber can be bullishly allocated in the near - term, with demand improvement expected [5] - Bottle chip has limited processing margin recovery space due to over - capacity [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol is expected to stabilize in shock with the improvement of downstream demand [6] - Urea market is expected to remain weak due to loose supply and demand [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC price may fluctuate weakly due to high supply and soft demand [7] - Caustic soda price may show a wide - range shock pattern with inventory reduction and supply pressure [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is suitable for short - selling at high rebounds due to over - supply [8] - Glass price may show a wide - range shock pattern with inventory reduction and demand improvement [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures - bullish in the medium to long term, recommended to buy on dips; Treasury bonds - hold and observe [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal - range trading; Rebar - range trading; Glass - buy on dips [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - hold and observe or buy on dips for short - term trading; Aluminum - recommended to buy on dips after a pullback; Nickel - recommend to observe or short on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - range trading [1][9][10][13][14] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC - volatile; Caustic soda - volatile; Soda ash - short 01 and long 05 arbitrage; Styrene - volatile; Rubber - bullish volatile; Urea - volatile; Methanol - volatile; Polyolefins - wide - range volatile [1][19][20][24][27][28][30] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - volatile; PTA - volatile; Apples - bullish volatile; Jujubes - bearish volatile [1][34][36][38] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs - short on rallies; Eggs - short on rallies; Corn - wide - range volatile; Soybean meal - range volatile; Oils - bullish volatile [1][39][40][41][45][51] Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market analyses for various futures products across multiple industries. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, cost, macro - economic environment, and policy expectations. For most products, the market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with some showing potential for long - term improvement based on factors like seasonal demand, trade policies, and production capacity changes [1][5][7][9][19][34][39] Summary by Industry Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: A - share market was volatile on Tuesday. Short - term market fluctuations are intensifying. It is recommended to focus on high - growth overseas - oriented sectors, AI - related opportunities, and non - banking sectors. The technology theme may remain active, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the medium to long term [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market has been weak recently. Market sentiment is fragile, and it is recommended to hold and observe in the short term [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Steel mills' daily hot - metal production decreased this week. After the parade, production is expected to recover. The "Golden September and Silver October" demand season is approaching, and it is recommended to buy on dips. Coking coal is recommended to be observed in the range of [1030 - 1230] [7] - **Rebar**: Futures prices fluctuated on Tuesday. The iron ore price rose, but the impact is on the far - term. Fundamental supply and demand weakened, but it is the traditional demand season in September. It is recommended to buy on dips, and the RB2601 contract should focus on the [3000 - 3100] support level [7] - **Glass**: Supply increased slightly last week, and inventory was stable overall. Demand improved, and the market sentiment warmed up. It is recommended to take partial profit on the 01 long position and buy on dips around the 1130 - 1140 support level [8] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The US employment data declined, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut increased, but concerns about the US economy limited the upside of copper prices. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, and the consumption season is approaching. Copper prices are expected to remain volatile at a high level, with a short - term operating range of 79000 - 80500 yuan/ton [9][10] - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite in Guinea increased, and the production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum was stable. Demand is entering the peak season, and it is recommended to buy on dips and consider the long AD and short AL arbitrage strategy [10] - **Nickel**: The demonstration in Indonesia and the Fed rate - cut expectation affected nickel prices. The supply of nickel ore is expected to increase, but the price has support. The nickel market is in an oversupply situation in the long term, and it is recommended to short on rallies [13][14] - **Tin**: Domestic refined tin production decreased in August. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand for semiconductors is expected to recover. Tin prices are expected to be volatile, with the Shanghai tin 10 - contract operating in the range of 26 - 27.5 million yuan/ton [15][16] - **Gold and Silver**: The US non - farm payrolls in August were lower than expected, increasing the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut. Gold and silver prices rebounded. It is recommended to buy on dips after a pullback, with the Shanghai gold 10 - contract operating in the range of 790 - 835 and the Shanghai silver 10 - contract in the range of 9100 - 10000 [16][18] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, supply is high, and demand is weak. Exports may face challenges. The market is expected to be volatile, and the 01 contract should focus on the 4700 - 5000 range [19][20] - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by factors such as inventory and demand, the market is expected to be volatile, and the 01 contract should focus on the 2530 - 2680 range [20][21] - **Styrene**: Due to factors like cost and demand, the market is expected to be volatile, and it should focus on the 6900 - 7200 range [22][24] - **Rubber**: The cost provides support, but the high - price raw materials face resistance from downstream. The market is expected to be bullish volatile, and it should focus on the 15600 support level [24][25] - **Urea**: Supply decreased slightly, demand was weak, and inventory increased. It is expected to be volatile, and the 01 contract should focus on the 1650 - 1700 support level [27][28] - **Methanol**: Supply was stable, cost was weak, and demand was mixed. The market is expected to be volatile, and the 01 contract should focus on the 2350 - 2450 range [28] - **Polyolefins**: The "Golden September and Silver October" demand season is approaching, and downstream demand is improving. PE supply pressure is relieved, while PP supply is high. LL is expected to be range - volatile in the 7200 - 7500 range, and PP is expected to be bearish volatile in the 6900 - 7200 range [30] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market is weak, and supply is abundant. It is recommended to short the 01 contract and long the 05 contract for arbitrage [33] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Global cotton supply and demand are improving, but new cotton production is expected to increase. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [34] - **PTA**: Crude oil prices fell, and PTA supply increased. The market is expected to be volatile, and it should focus on the 4600 - 4950 range [35][36] - **Apples**: Early - maturing apples are priced higher than last year, and the market is expected to be bullish volatile [36] - **Jujubes**: Consumption is weak, and the market is expected to be bearish volatile [38] Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: Supply increased in September, and demand growth was slow. The price is under pressure, but policies and holiday demand may provide support. It is recommended to take profit on short positions and add short positions on rallies, and consider the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [39] - **Eggs**: Short - term demand was boosted, and supply pressure was relieved. However, cold - storage eggs may affect the price. It is recommended to be cautious about shorting the 12 and 01 contracts, and the market is expected to be range - volatile [40] - **Corn**: The new crop is about to be listed, and the old - crop inventory is relatively tight. The 11 contract should not be overly bearish. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [41][43] - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean price has support, and domestic supply is abundant in the short term. The price is expected to be volatile, and the M2601 contract should focus on the 3030 support level [45][46] - **Oils**: Short - term price increases are limited due to factors such as inventory and report expectations. In the long term, demand is expected to improve, and it is recommended to buy on dips and consider the rapeseed oil 11 - 01 contract positive arbitrage [51]