2025 年 12 月 18 日星期四 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | | | | 铅： | | 15 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 15 | | 镍： | | 16 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 16 | | 棕榈油： | | 17 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 17 | | 棉花： | | 18 | | 白糖： | | 19 | | 苹果： | | 20 | | 生猪： | | 20 | | 鸡蛋： | | 21 | | 玉米&淀粉： | | 21 | | 免责声明 | | 23 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线上涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.63%报 112.140 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.10%报 108.005 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.06%报 105.840 元，2 年 期主力合约涨 0.01%报 102.434 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，12 月 17 日以固定利率、数量 ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-12-15 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-12-15 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 习近平：要树立和践行正确政绩观 观点分享： 期货研究 据学习小组报道，中央经济工作会议上，习近平总书记着重强调"要树立和践行正确政 绩观"，现实指向性鲜明。向外看，中国向世界展示了从容自信："打出了中国人的志气骨 气底气，彰显了我们的硬核实力，赢得了国际社会尊重。"向内观，"对投资下滑，既要高 度重视也要沉着冷静。从基本实现社会主义现代化的要求来看，无论投资于物还是投资于人 都有广阔空间。""面对国际风云变幻和各种风险挑战，我们要保持战略定力，坚定不移把 自己的事情办好。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 铜 | ★★★★ | 铜：铜价周五夜盘大幅回调，主要因高位价格对利空敏感度增强。甲骨文被曝部分数据中心 推迟至 2028 年竣工，博通财报也加剧了投资者对 AI 的焦虑，使得部分多头获利平仓。从长 期基本面看，AI 算力中心建设是趋势，且相关的电力投资增速将提高，能够持续带动铜等材 料的新增消费量。在定价层面 ...

2025 年 12 月 12 日星期五 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-63638617 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 地址： 电话： | | | | 铅： | | 15 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 15 | | 镍： | | 16 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 16 | | 棕榈油： | | 17 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 17 | | 棉花： | | 18 | | 白糖： | | 19 | | 苹果： | | 20 | | 生猪： | | 21 | | 鸡蛋： | | 21 | | 玉米&淀粉： | | 22 | | 免责声明 | | 24 | 4 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 当前宏观数据保持平稳，但宏观经济复苏动能仍待加强，预计货币政策将保持宽 松。当前的国债收益率处在相对低位；中国经济呈现平稳复苏态势，核心通胀持续回 升，内需政策有发力空间；市场风险偏好明显提升。因此，预计国债期货仍有一定压 力，保持谨慎。 小结：预计仍有一定压力，保持谨慎。 股指： 上一交易日，股指期货涨跌不一，沪深 300 ...

2025 年 12 月 10 日星期三 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-63638617 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | | | | 铅： | | 15 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 15 | | 镍： | | 16 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 16 | | 棕榈油： | | 17 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 17 | | 棉花： | | 18 | | 白糖： | | 19 | | 苹果： | | 20 | | 生猪： | | 20 | | 鸡蛋： | | 21 | | 玉米&淀粉： | | 22 | | 免责声明 | | 24 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线上涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.45%报 112.590 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.12%报 107.980 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.07%报 105.785 元，2 年 期主力合约涨 0.02%报 102.430 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，12 月 9 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 1173 亿 ...

商务部副部长盛秋平在全国零售业创新发展大会上表示，"十五五"时期，要把零售业作为培育完整内需体系、做强国内大循环的关键着力点， 推动行业转向品质驱动、服务驱动，实现高质量发展。要学习推广胖东来等企业好经验好做法，加快转型提升。美联储预计将在内部意见分 歧的情况下连续第三次降息，官员们随后可能暗示暂停行动；芝商所集团（CME）的美联储观察工具显示，市场已高度定价一次25个基点的 降息。白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特表示，他认为美联储还有很大降息空间。 重点品种： 国债，油脂，铜 国债： 普遍上涨，10年期国债活跃券收益率下行至1.83%。央行公开市场逆回购净投放390亿元，Shibor短端有所上行，不过维持低位，市场 资金面保持稳定。美国9月核心PCE物价指数同比上涨2.8%，环比上涨0.2%，基本符合市场预期，日本央行行长强烈暗示12月加息，日元显著 升值，引发了对全球流动性收紧的担忧，美债收益率回升。11月份制造业PMI为49.2%，比上月上升0.2%，经济景气水平总体平稳，出口同比 增5.7%，增速较 10 月大幅加快，贸易产品结构与贸易市场布局持续优化，外贸韧性较强。中央政治局会议指出明年经济工作要 ...

2025 年 12 月 4 日星期四 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-63638617 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | | | | 铅： | | 15 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 15 | | 镍： | | 16 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 16 | | 棕榈油： | | 17 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 18 | | 棉花： | | 18 | | 白糖： | | 19 | | 苹果： | | 20 | | 生猪： | | 21 | | 鸡蛋： | | 21 | | 玉米&淀粉： | | 22 | | 免责声明 | | 24 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘多数上涨，30 年期主力合约跌 0.26%报 113.610 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.06%报 108.040 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.07%报 105.850 元，2 年 期主力合约涨 0.03%报 102.420 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，12 月 3 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 793 亿 元 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to face some pressure, maintain a cautious stance [6][7] - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected that the volatility center will gradually move up, consider going long at an appropriate time [9][10] - **Precious Metals**: Expected to continue the upward trend, temporarily observe and wait for opportunities to go long [11][12] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: Rebar prices may remain weak in the medium term, and hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend. Look for opportunities to go short at high levels during rebounds [13] - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern is weak. Look for opportunities to go short at high levels [15] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Look for opportunities to go long at low levels [18] - **Ferroalloys**: Consider long positions at low levels after the spot loss widens [21] - **Crude Oil**: Focus on opportunities to go long [24] - **Fuel Oil**: Focus on opportunities to go long [27] - **Polyolefins**: Focus on opportunities to go long [29] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to oscillate [32] - **Natural Rubber**: Consider opportunities to go long [34] - **PVC**: Focus on supply - side changes [38] - **Urea**: The downside space is limited [39] - **Para - Xylene (PX)**: May oscillate and adjust in the short term, control positions and pay attention to crude oil and macro - policy changes [40] - **PTA**: May oscillate in the short term, be cautious and pay attention to oil price changes [41] - **Ethylene Glycol**: May face pressure in the short term, pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [42] - **Short - Fiber**: May oscillate following costs in the short term, control risks and pay attention to cost and macro - policy changes [44] - **Bottle Chips**: Expected to oscillate following the cost side, control risks [45] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Pay attention to consumption sustainability and mine restart progress [46] - **Copper**: May run strongly in the short term, beware of callback risks after hitting new highs [48][49] - **Aluminum**: In a phase of adjustment in the short term, the price has resilience in the medium - long term [50][51][52] - **Zinc**: Likely to continue the range - bound oscillation pattern [53][54] - **Lead**: Likely to run weakly [55][56] - **Tin**: May oscillate strongly [58] - **Nickel**: May oscillate [59] - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: Consider long positions in the low - cost support range [61] - **Palm Oil**: Consider going long on pullbacks [63] - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Consider a long - biased approach for rapeseed oil [66] - **Cotton**: The upside space is expected to be limited [69] - **Sugar**: May oscillate [74] - **Apples**: Expected to run strongly [75][76] - **Pigs**: Consider holding the remaining short positions temporarily [79] - **Eggs**: Consider temporary observation [81] - **Corn and Starch**: It is advisable to observe and wait for the release of supply pressure after transportation recovers. Corn starch may follow the corn market [83][84] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed higher, with the 30 - year contract down 0.08% at 114.370 yuan, and others rising [5] - **Policy and Macroeconomy**: The central bank conducted 107.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on December 1st, with a net withdrawal of 231.1 billion yuan. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose [5][6] Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results [8] - **Policy and Market**: The CSRC is promoting the pilot of commercial real - estate investment trust funds (REITs). The domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but asset valuations are low, and market sentiment has warmed up [8][9] Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose, with gold up 0.98% and silver up 4.33% [11] - **Market Factors**: The complex global trade and financial environment, central bank gold - buying, and the expected Fed rate cuts are favorable for precious metals [11] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. Spot prices are at certain levels [13] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Rebar demand is declining year - on - year, and the market is entering the off - season. Supply capacity is in surplus, and inventory pressure is high. Hot - rolled coils have a similar situation [13] Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly [15] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Since October, iron ore supply has increased year - on - year, and demand has declined. Port inventory has exceeded last year's level [15] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded significantly [17] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Coking coal supply is increasing, and demand is weakening. Coke supply is stable, but demand may decline due to potential steel - mill production cuts [18] Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures rose [20] - **Supply - Demand and Cost**: Manganese ore supply has recovered, and the cost of ferroalloys is rising. Production is declining, and demand is weak, but the overall surplus is easing [20][21] Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward [22] - **Market News**: OPEC's suspension of production increase boosts market confidence. There are also news about Russia - US negotiations and the increase in US oil and gas rigs [22][23] Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated upward and stood above the 5 - day moving average [25] - **Market Factors**: The deepening of the Asian fuel oil spot discount and the slow progress of the US 28 - point plan are favorable for fuel oil prices [26] Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou and the LLDPE market in Yuyao showed certain price movements [28] - **Market Analysis**: The average operating rate of domestic polypropylene downstream industries has increased. Different PP product industries show different trends [28] Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures fell 1.01% [30] - **Supply - Demand and Market**: Raw material prices are under pressure, supply is relatively loose, and demand from tire enterprises is weak [30][31] Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures fell [33] - **Supply - Demand and Market**: Supply is affected by weather and high overseas raw material prices. Demand is affected by enterprise maintenance, and inventory is slightly increasing [33] PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, PVC futures rose 0.11% [35] - **Supply - Demand and Cost**: Supply is increasing, demand shows different trends in different industries, and costs are affected by raw material prices. The overall supply - demand pattern is still oversupplied [35] Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, urea futures fell 0.18% [38] - **Supply - Demand and Cost**: Supply is increasing, demand from downstream products shows different trends, and costs and profits are affected by coal prices [38] Para - Xylene (PX) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, PX futures rose 2.21% [40] - **Supply - Demand and Market**: PX supply is slightly decreasing, and the PXN spread is relatively strong. Attention should be paid to crude oil and macro - policy changes [40] PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, PTA2601 futures rose 1.93% [41] - **Supply - Demand and Cost**: Supply is increasing, demand from polyester is relatively stable, and processing fees are declining. It may oscillate in the short term [41] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose 0.28% [42] - **Supply - Demand and Market**: Supply is increasing, inventory is rising, and demand from downstream polyester is slightly decreasing [42] Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose 1.42% [43] - **Supply - Demand and Market**: Supply is at a relatively high level, demand changes little, and it may oscillate following costs [43][44] Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures rose 1.23% [45] - **Supply - Demand and Market**: Supply is at a certain level, export is increasing, and it may oscillate following the cost side [45] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose 0.56% [46] - **Supply - Demand and Market**: Supply is at a high level, consumption in the energy - storage and power - battery sectors is improving, and inventory is decreasing [46] Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper futures rose 0.62% [47] - **Supply - Demand and Market**: The supply of copper ore is growing slowly, and demand is affected by high prices and substitution. The price may be supported in the short term but is restricted by consumption [48] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai aluminum and alumina futures rose [50] - **Supply - Demand and Market**: The supply of domestic bauxite is tight, but imports are increasing. Supply and demand are in a state of oversupply, and the price may adjust in the short term [50] Zinc - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai zinc futures rose 0.98% [53] - **Supply - Demand and Market**: Zinc concentrate supply is tight, demand is in the off - season, and the price may oscillate in a range [53] Lead - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai lead futures rose 0.64% [55] - **Supply - Demand and Market**: The supply of lead concentrate is slightly easing, demand from the battery market is weak, and the price may run weakly [55] Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, tin futures fell 0.27% [57] - **Supply - Demand and Market**: Supply is tight, and demand shows some resilience. The price may oscillate strongly [57][58] Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, nickel futures rose 0.26% [59] - **Supply - Demand and Market**: Nickel ore prices are stable, demand from the stainless - steel market is weak, and the price may oscillate [59] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal futures fell 0.36%, and soybean oil futures rose 0.61% [60] - **Supply - Demand and Market**: Brazilian soybean planting is slightly slower, and domestic supply is relatively loose. Demand for soybean meal is growing moderately, and demand for soybean oil is slightly improving [60][61] Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil futures fell [62] - **Supply - Demand and Market**: Indonesian production concerns are alleviated, and exports are declining. Domestic imports are increasing, and inventory is accumulating [62] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Rapeseed futures fell [64] - **Supply - Demand and Market**: Attention is focused on the Canadian crop report. Domestic imports show different trends, and inventory is in a state of destocking [64][65] Cotton - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures rebounded, and overseas cotton futures fell slightly [67] - **Supply - Demand and Market**: The USDA has raised the global and US cotton production and inventory forecasts. Domestic production is high, and demand is weak [67][68] Sugar - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Zhengzhou sugar futures oscillated, and overseas raw - sugar futures fell 3% [70] - **Supply - Demand and Market**: Brazilian sugar production has exceeded expectations, and domestic production and imports are increasing, putting pressure on sugar prices [70][73] Apples - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures oscillated [75] - **Supply - Demand and Market**: Inventory is decreasing, and new - season production and quality are declining, so the price is expected to be strong [75] Pigs - **Market Performance**: The national average pig price rose on the previous day [77] - **Supply - Demand and Market**: Supply is affected by enterprise sales and farmers' sentiment, and demand is affected by pickling. Attention should be paid to changes in sales and slaughter in December [77][78] Eggs - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the average egg price in the main production and sales areas rose [80] - **Supply - Demand and Market**: Egg production is at a high level, and demand may increase seasonally. The price may be affected by supply and demand changes [80] Corn and Starch - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures fell [82] - **Supply - Demand and Market**: North - port corn arrivals are affected by transportation, and demand shows certain trends. Corn starch supply is increasing, and inventory is at a high level [82][83]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall Market Outlook**: The current domestic economy remains stable, but the recovery momentum of the macro - economy still needs to be strengthened. The market sentiment has significantly improved, and incremental funds are continuously entering the market. Different asset classes have different trends and investment opportunities due to various factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - policies, and international situations [6][9]. - **Asset - Specific Views**: - **Treasury Bonds**: There is still some pressure, and a cautious attitude is recommended [6][7]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The volatility center is expected to gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [9][10]. - **Precious Metals**: They are expected to continue the upward trend. Investors can wait and see for now and look for opportunities to go long [11][12]. - **Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The medium - term weakness of rebar prices is difficult to change, and hot - rolled coil may follow the same trend. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the futures may face resistance in rebounding. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels [16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [18]. - **Ferroalloys**: After a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels when the spot loss expands [21]. - **Crude Oil**: The main contract presents buying opportunities [24]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contract presents buying opportunities [26]. - **Polyolefins**: Present buying opportunities [28]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate [30]. - **Natural Rubber**: Investors can focus on buying opportunities [32]. - **PVC**: Pay attention to changes in the supply side [34]. - **Urea**: The downward space is limited [36]. - **PX**: May fluctuate and adjust in the short term. Control positions and be vigilant about crude oil changes [38]. - **PTA**: May fluctuate in the short term. Be cautious and pay attention to oil price changes [39]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: May be under pressure in the short term. Pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [42]. - **Short - Fiber**: May fluctuate with costs in the short term. Control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [43]. - **Bottle Chips**: Expected to fluctuate with the cost side [44]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Pay attention to consumption continuity and mine restart progress [46]. - **Copper**: May run strongly in the short term. Pay attention to whether it can effectively break through the oscillation range [47][48]. - **Aluminum**: In a short - term adjustment state, but has long - term resilience [50][51]. - **Zinc**: Likely to continue the range - bound pattern [52][53]. - **Lead**: May weakly fluctuate [54]. - **Tin**: May fluctuate strongly [55]. - **Nickel**: May fluctuate [56]. - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: Investors can focus on long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range [58]. - **Palm Oil**: Consider buying on pullbacks [61]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: A bullish approach can be considered for rapeseed oil [63]. - **Cotton**: The price is expected to be weak, and the upside space is limited [66][67]. - **Sugar**: Will fluctuate [71]. - **Apples**: Expected to run strongly [72][73]. - **Hogs**: Consider holding the remaining short positions after partial profit - taking of previous short positions [74]. - **Eggs**: Consider waiting and seeing for now [77]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: It is advisable to wait and see and wait for the release of supply pressure after transportation recovers. Corn starch may follow the corn market [80]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the closing performance of treasury bond futures was divided. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts had different price changes. The central bank conducted 3013 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 737 billion yuan on the day [5]. - **Macro - economic Situation**: In November, the manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points, the non - manufacturing business activity index decreased by 0.6 percentage points, and the comprehensive PMI output index decreased by 0.3 percentage points. The overall economic prosperity level was stable [5]. - **Outlook**: There is still some pressure, and a cautious attitude is recommended [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The main contracts of different stock index futures had different price changes [8]. - **Policy News**: Many regions are researching and planning policies to support the sale of completed properties, aiming to increase the proportion of completed property sales [8]. - **Outlook**: The volatility center is expected to gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [9][10]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of gold and silver had price increases, and there were also price changes in the night session [11]. - **Supporting Factors**: The complex global trade and financial environment, the trend of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", central bank gold - buying behavior, and the expected continuous interest rate cuts by the Fed are all favorable for precious metals [11]. - **Outlook**: They are expected to continue the upward trend. Investors can wait and see for now and look for opportunities to go long [11][12]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. The spot prices of different steel products are provided [13]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: On the demand side, the long - term downward trend of the real estate industry has not reversed, and the market will enter the off - season. On the supply side, over - capacity persists, and rebar production has decreased slightly. The inventory is higher than last year, and the inventory pressure is obvious [13]. - **Outlook**: The medium - term weakness of rebar prices is difficult to change, and hot - rolled coil may follow the same trend. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [13]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated and consolidated. The spot prices of different iron ore products are provided [15]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Since October, the daily output of molten iron has declined, the import volume of iron ore has increased year - on - year, the domestic production of raw ore is lower than last year, and the port inventory has continued to rise [16]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the futures may face resistance in rebounding. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline [18]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: For coking coal, the impact of safety inspections on production is weakening, and supply is increasing. The downstream acceptance of high - priced goods is decreasing, and the procurement rhythm is slowing down. For coke, after the fourth price increase, the supply is stable, but the demand from steel mills may weaken due to profit compression [18]. - **Outlook**: Investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [18]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron had different price changes. The spot prices of different ferroalloys are provided [20]. - **Supply - Demand and Cost Analysis**: The supply of manganese ore has increased, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. The cost of ferroalloys is rising. The production of rebar by sample steel mills has decreased, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak, but the overall over - supply situation is easing [20][21]. - **Outlook**: After a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels when the spot loss expands [21]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated upward [22]. - **News and Data**: There are news about Russia - US negotiations and the possible decision of OPEC+ to maintain oil production levels [22]. - **Outlook**: The main contract presents buying opportunities [24]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated upward and temporarily got rid of the annual low [25]. - **Market Analysis**: The spot discount of Asian fuel oil has deepened, and the progress of the US 28 - point plan is slow, both of which are favorable for fuel oil prices [25]. - **Outlook**: The main contract presents buying opportunities [26]. Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: In the previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou had a slight increase in quotes, while the LLDPE price in the Yuyao market decreased in some parts [27]. - **Demand Analysis**: The average operating rate of the domestic polypropylene downstream industry has increased, but different sub - industries have different trends. The demand for some products is affected by seasons and market conditions [27]. - **Outlook**: Present buying opportunities [28]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber rose [29]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The supply of raw materials is abundant, the supply of synthetic rubber is relatively loose, and the demand from tire enterprises is weak [29]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate [30]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber rose [31]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis**: The supply is supported by weather and high overseas raw material prices. The demand is affected by enterprise maintenance, and the inventory is slightly increasing [31]. - **Outlook**: Investors can focus on buying opportunities [32]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC rose, and the spot price increased [33]. - **Supply - Demand and Cost Analysis**: The supply is increasing, the demand from different downstream industries is different, and the cost - profit situation is complex. The social inventory is increasing [33][34]. - **Outlook**: Pay attention to changes in the supply side [34]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea rose [35]. - **Supply - Demand and Cost Analysis**: The supply has increased, the demand from different downstream products has changed differently, and the cost and profit situation is complex. The inventory is at a certain level [35]. - **Outlook**: The downward space is limited [36]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX rose [37]. - **Supply - Demand and Cost Analysis**: The PX load has increased, the import volume has decreased, and the cost is affected by crude oil fluctuations. The PXN spread is relatively strong, and the supply is slightly reduced [37][38]. - **Outlook**: May fluctuate and adjust in the short term. Control positions and be vigilant about crude oil changes [38]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA rose [39]. - **Supply - Demand and Cost Analysis**: The supply is decreasing, the demand from the polyester industry is relatively stable, and the processing fee is declining. The cost is affected by crude oil and raw material PX prices [39]. - **Outlook**: May fluctuate in the short term. Be cautious and pay attention to oil price changes [39]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol declined [40]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis**: The supply is slightly decreasing, the inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the demand from the downstream polyester industry is limited [40][41]. - **Outlook**: May be under pressure in the short term. Pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [42]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of short - fiber rose [43]. - **Supply - Demand and Cost Analysis**: The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand from the downstream industry is stable, and the cost drive is increasing [43]. - **Outlook**: May fluctuate with costs in the short term. Control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [43]. Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of bottle chips rose [44]. - **Supply - Demand and Cost Analysis**: The supply is at a certain level, the demand from the downstream soft - drink industry is in the off - season, and the export is increasing. The cost is affected by raw material prices [44]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with the cost side [44]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of lithium carbonate declined [45]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis**: The supply is at a high level, the demand from the energy - storage and power - battery sectors is improving, and the social inventory is decreasing [45][46]. - **Outlook**: Pay attention to consumption continuity and mine restart progress [46]. Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai copper rose [47]. - **Macro - and Fundamental Analysis**: The possible early resignation of the Fed chairman increases the probability of interest rate cuts. The supply of copper ore is growing slowly, and the demand is affected by high prices and substitution effects. The social inventory has decreased [47]. - **Outlook**: May run strongly in the short term. Pay attention to whether it can effectively break through the oscillation range [47][48]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum rose, and the main contract of alumina declined [49]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis**: The supply of domestic ore is tight, but the import of ore is increasing. The supply of alumina is in surplus, and the supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a low level but may increase [49][50]. - **Outlook**: In a short - term adjustment state, but has long - term resilience [50][51]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai zinc rose [52]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis**: The supply of zinc concentrate is tight, the export window has opened, the demand is in the off - season but has some rigid support, and the social inventory is expected to decrease slightly [52]. - **Outlook**: Likely to continue the range - bound pattern [52][53]. Lead - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai lead rose [54]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis**: The supply of lead concentrate is slightly easing, the demand from the battery market is in the off - season, and the social inventory may stop decreasing [54]. - **Outlook**: May weakly fluctuate [54]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of tin rose [55]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis**: The supply of tin ore is tight, the demand has some structural support, and the refined tin inventory is decreasing [55]. - **Outlook**: May fluctuate strongly [55]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of nickel declined [56]. - **Macro - and Fundamental Analysis**: The market's expectation of Fed interest rate cuts is increasing. The price of nickel ore is stable, the production of nickel - iron is affected, the demand from the stainless - steel industry is weak, and the inventory is at a relatively high level [56]. - **Outlook**: May fluctuate [56]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of soybean oil and soybean meal rose. The spot prices of different products are provided [57]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis**: The planting progress of Brazilian soybeans is slightly slower, the US soybean harvest is almost complete, the demand is expected to improve, the soybean crushing volume is high, and the inventory of soybean oil and soybean meal is increasing [57][58]. - **Outlook**: Investors can focus on long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range [58]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: The market has some price changes, and the export volume of Malaysia and the import volume of China are provided [59]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis**: The export of Malaysian palm oil is decreasing, the production may decline seasonally, and the domestic inventory is at a medium level [59]. - **Outlook**: Consider buying on pullbacks [61]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: The Canadian rapeseed

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks dominates oil prices, and the prices of polyolefin futures have reached new lows in recent years. The situation of strong current and weak expectations in the crude oil market continues, and the key variable lies in the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks. Investors should temporarily adopt a volatile mindset [2]. - The weakening of crude oil leads to a decline in the cost of oil-based chemicals. The production capacity growth rates of PP and PE in 2025 both exceed 10%, and the maintenance efforts are insufficient. The production of polyolefins has been at the highest level in the same period in the past five years, and the monthly production of both varieties in October reached a record high [3]. - The energy and chemical industry will continue its weak and volatile trend, with olefins being weak and the aromatics pattern being slightly stronger [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical premium fluctuates, and supply pressure persists. If geopolitical support gradually weakens, it is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. - **Main Logic**: The progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace plan is becoming more optimistic, but uncertainties remain high. API data shows that the US crude oil inventory decreased last week while gasoline and diesel inventories increased. The pressure of inventory accumulation due to oversupply still exists, and there is a lack of marginal positive factors after the reduction of Russian oil production. Macro and geopolitical factors have had an increasing impact on oil prices recently [8]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **View**: Due to raw material supply disruptions and optimistic sentiment, the asphalt futures price rebounded. The absolute price of asphalt is overestimated, and the monthly spread of asphalt is expected to decline as warehouse receipts increase [9]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will continue to increase production in December, and White House officials expect Russia and Ukraine to reach a framework agreement by the end of November. The increase in crude oil and rebar prices driven by optimistic expectations has boosted the asphalt futures price. Reuters reported that Venezuela is seeking key raw material supplies from Chevron, and the shortage of Venezuelan diluted naphtha supply may lead to a decline in its crude oil exports. After the futures pricing returned to the Shandong spot price, the recent stability of the Shandong spot price has strengthened the support for the futures price [9]. 3.1.3 High-Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The fuel oil futures price is in a weak and volatile state. Geopolitical escalation will only cause short-term price disturbances, and attention should be paid to changes in the Russia-Ukraine situation [9]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will continue to increase production in December, and White House officials expect Russia and Ukraine to reach a framework agreement by the end of November. The three major drivers supporting high-sulfur fuel oil, namely the Russia-Ukraine conflict, refinery purchases, and the Palestine-Israel conflict, are currently weak. The refinery operating rate has dropped significantly in the off-season, and the refinery processing demand is weak. The United States is currently using gas oil as a substitute for residue oil, and the fuel oil demand in the Middle East is still weak during the off-season [9]. 3.1.4 Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The low-sulfur fuel oil futures price is in a weak and volatile state. It is affected by the substitution of green fuels and high-sulfur fuels, and the demand space is limited. However, the current valuation is low, and it will fluctuate with crude oil [10][11]. - **Main Logic**: Low-sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of refined oil products, and the pressure level of 3500 is temporarily effective. Recently, the decline in Russian refined oil exports has driven the rebound of gasoline and diesel cracking spreads, which has supported low-sulfur fuel oil. However, White House officials expect Russia and Ukraine to reach a framework agreement by the end of November, and diesel prices have dropped significantly, causing low-sulfur fuel oil to follow the decline. Low-sulfur fuel oil faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, the substitution of green energy, and the substitution of high-sulfur fuels. Its valuation is low and is expected to fluctuate with crude oil [11]. 3.1.5 Methanol - **View**: The rebound has reflected the confirmed expectations, and high inventories will suppress the upward space of the futures price. It is expected to be in a short-term volatile consolidation state, and there may be a possibility of repeated bottoming in the long term [30][31]. - **Main Logic**: On November 25, methanol continued to rise but showed signs of weakness. The trading atmosphere in the inland market was active, and the demand for long-term contracts and replenishment by traders was obvious. Olefin enterprises purchased in normal quantities, smoothly digesting the enterprise inventories. After the confirmation of the shutdown information of Iranian methanol plants, the expectations have been basically reflected in the futures price through the reduction of short positions on the 24th. However, considering the high expected import volume, the high coastal inventories are expected to remain at a historical high level, continuing to suppress the upward space of the futures price after the rebound [30]. 3.1.6 Urea - **View**: Downstream demand is weak, and the futures price has declined slightly. The fundamental pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, with high inventories suppressing prices and spot prices providing support. The market is expected to be in a narrow and volatile consolidation state, and attention should be paid to the impact of environmental protection restrictions on the operation of downstream compound fertilizers [31]. - **Main Logic**: On November 25, the daily production on the supply side remained at a high level. Some devices are expected to resume operation soon, while others have started maintenance. The demand side lacks sustainability, and the market lacks continuous upward momentum. Some regional prices have loosened, and the futures price has declined slightly following the spot price [31]. 3.1.7 Ethylene Glycol - **View**: Without further positive support, the price has entered an adjustment range. The long-term inventory accumulation pressure is large, the rebound height is limited, and the price will maintain a wide and volatile range at a low level [21][22]. - **Main Logic**: The ethylene glycol price rose and then fell during the day. After the short-term sentiment was further released, there was no other obvious positive support. The early implementation of the maintenance plan at Sinochem Quanzhou has relieved the supply-side pressure to some extent, and the price has experienced an emotional recovery. However, there is still an expectation of the return of coal-based devices, and the expectation of inventory accumulation from November to December has not been reversed. With the expectation of future production capacity expansion, the price increase is under pressure [21]. 3.1.8 PX - **View**: The cost-side support is slightly insufficient, but the demand-side support maintains the profitability. In the short term, it is expected to shift from the previous strength to an adjustment phase, and the price will fluctuate with the cost, waiting for the fermentation of sentiment and further feedback from downstream industries [13]. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices are volatile and weak, and the cost-side support for PX is slightly insufficient. After the price increase, PX has entered a correction phase. The market news is relatively calm, and there have been no significant changes in PX devices. The sentiment for blending into gasoline has cooled down slightly, but PX supply still remains at a high level. The demand side still provides some support for PX prices, which will fluctuate within a certain range under the influence of cost and sentiment [13]. 3.1.9 PTA - **View**: The spot basis is strong, and the processing fee has been slightly repaired. The price will fluctuate with the cost, and the support for the processing fee has increased. The basis has emerged from a weak state. There may be an opportunity for a positive spread arbitrage in TA01 - 05 when it is below -50 [14][15]. - **Main Logic**: The cost-side support from upstream is average, and the market sentiment has cooled down, resulting in average negotiations. However, the PTA supply-demand pattern has improved compared to the previous period, leading to a stronger basis. There is a possibility of inventory reduction from November to December. Attention should be paid to the export performance after the cancellation of BIS [15]. 3.1.10 Short Fiber - **View**: Downstream demand is temporarily maintained, and it will passively follow the upstream. The short fiber price will fluctuate with the upstream, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed. A light long position in TA and short position in PF can be considered [24][25]. - **Main Logic**: The cost-side support is limited, and the price increase is modest even with the rebound of ethylene glycol. The current supply-demand pattern of polyester staple fiber is in a weakening cycle, and demand only meets the basic needs. Polyester staple fiber factories are mainly focused on sales [25]. 3.1.11 Bottle Chip - **View**: The price fluctuation is limited, and the profit is stagnant. The absolute price will fluctuate with the raw materials, and the overall support for the processing fee has increased [26]. - **Main Logic**: The upstream raw material futures prices rose and then fell. Polyester bottle chip factories slightly increased their prices in some areas. The trading atmosphere in the polyester bottle chip market was average, and there was a large price difference among different brands. The short-term upstream cost is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, providing no clear directional guidance, and the profit of polyester bottle chips will have limited fluctuations [26]. 3.1.12 Propylene - **View**: The spot is strong, and PL is volatile. PL is expected to be volatile in the short term [35]. - **Main Logic**: The restart of supply has been delayed, and the overall supply remains tight. Propylene enterprises have controllable inventories, and some offer prices have increased slightly. Downstream demand has been positive, with an increase in the premium for actual orders, and the trading center has shifted upwards significantly. The PP - PL spread has narrowed in the short term, and the operating rate of downstream powder plants has declined [35]. 3.1.13 PP - **View**: Oil prices are weakening, and there are still fundamental pressures. Attention should be paid to changes in maintenance. It is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [34][35]. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices are volatile and declining. The progress of the Russia-Ukraine negotiations has led to a lack of marginal positive factors after the reduction of Russian oil production. The macro and geopolitical factors point to a pessimistic outlook for oil prices. The fundamental support for PP itself is still limited. Although maintenance has increased slightly, the high growth of production capacity still exerts pressure on output. The midstream inventory is at the highest level in the same period in the past five years, and weak demand will continue to suppress the price [35]. 3.1.14 Plastic - **View**: Oil prices are falling, and the downstream is entering the off-season. Maintenance provides limited support, and it is expected to be volatile and weak. It is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [33][34]. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices are volatile and declining. The progress of the Russia-Ukraine negotiations has led to a lack of marginal positive factors after the reduction of Russian oil production. The macro and geopolitical factors point to a pessimistic outlook for oil prices. The fundamental support for plastics itself is still limited. The upstream and midstream still have the intention to reduce inventories at high prices, which will suppress the upward space of prices. Short-term maintenance provides limited support, and the increase in production capacity still exerts pressure on output. The profit support is limited, and the downstream demand is gradually entering the off-season, with a cautious purchasing attitude [34]. 3.1.15 Styrene - **View**: The narrative of blending into gasoline has faded, and styrene has returned to a volatile state. It is expected to be volatile for the time being. Attention should be paid to the expected difference between the de - stocking of styrene ports and the inventory accumulation of pure benzene ports [19]. - **Main Logic**: The gasoline crack spread and the Asia - US aromatic hydrocarbon spread indicate that the driving force of blending into gasoline is questionable. After the speculative premium is squeezed out, the downward space for styrene is limited. There are some positive factors such as exports and the reduction of Korean aromatic hydrocarbon production. The supply - demand balance between pure benzene and styrene from December to January is not a major issue, with only minor de - stocking and inventory accumulation, so it will be mainly volatile for the time being [19]. 3.1.16 PVC - **View**: High inventories suppress prices, and PVC may be anchored to production cuts. If low profits lead to upstream production cuts or export volume exceeds expectations, the downward pressure on the futures price will be relieved [37]. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in December and the Fed's interest rate decision to guide market expectations. At the micro level, the de - stocking of high PVC inventories is slow, and attention should be paid to whether low profits can lead to enterprise production cuts. Specifically, PVC production is at a high level, the profits of marginal enterprises are poor but there are no clear production cut plans; downstream operating rates are seasonally weak, and only low - price purchases increase; the anti - dumping measures in India have been cancelled, and with the new low in Chinese PVC prices, last week's PVC export orders were booming; the supply and demand of calcium carbide have both increased, and the price is weakly stable; the supply - demand expectation of caustic soda is different, and the downward space of the price may be restricted by liquid chlorine [37]. 3.1.17 Caustic Soda - **View**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, caustic soda is in a volatile state. If low profits lead to upstream production cuts or the logic of warehouse receipts in December takes effect, the futures price may stabilize [37]. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in December and the Fed's interest rate decision to guide market expectations. At the micro level, the supply - demand expectation of caustic soda is poor, and attention should be paid to whether low profits can lead to upstream production cuts. Specifically, the marginal profit of alumina plants is poor, and the operating capacity may decline; Weiqiao's caustic soda inventory is high, and the purchase volume is still large; the commissioning of a 4.8 million - ton alumina plant in Guangxi in Q1 2026 will boost the demand for caustic soda, and the purchase of caustic soda is in progress, but the delivery time has been postponed; the non - aluminum operating rate has slightly weakened, and the willingness to replenish inventory is not high; the maintenance in November will end one after another, and the production of caustic soda will increase month - on - month; the price of liquid chlorine is 50 yuan/ton and may decline in the future, and the cost of caustic soda (2250 yuan/ton) may increase [37]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Cross - Period Spread**: The report provides the cross - period spreads and their changes for various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc. [40]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the basis, its changes, and the number of warehouse receipts for varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [41]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The cross - variety spreads and their changes are presented, including 1 - month PP - 3MA, 5 - month TA - EG, etc. [42]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although specific data and analysis for each variety (methanol, urea, styrene, etc.) are mentioned, no detailed content is provided in the given text, so a summary cannot be made. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, special index, and plate index of the commodity are provided. The comprehensive index shows an increase, and the energy index has declined in the short term [284][285].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to face some pressure, maintain a cautious stance [6][7]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The volatility center is expected to gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [9][10]. - **Precious Metals**: Temporarily wait and observe, and wait for opportunities to go long [11][12]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: The medium - term weakness of rebar prices is difficult to change, and hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend. Investors can focus on shorting opportunities at high levels during rebounds [12]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and investors can focus on shorting opportunities at high levels [14]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: May continue to correct in the short term, and investors can focus on buying opportunities during corrections [16]. - **Ferroalloys**: The overall surplus pressure is weakening. After a decline, investors can consider low - level opportunities when the spot falls into the loss range again [19]. - **Crude Oil**: Focus on short - term long - buying opportunities for the main contract [22]. - **Fuel Oil**: Temporarily wait and observe for the main contract [25]. - **Polyolefins**: Focus on long - buying opportunities [27]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to have a wide - range consolidation with limited downward space, and pay attention to raw material prices and supply changes [28]. - **Natural Rubber**: Focus on long - buying opportunities [32]. - **PVC**: Pay attention to changes on the supply side [36]. - **Urea**: The downward space is limited [38]. - **PX**: May have an oscillatory adjustment in the short term, control positions, and be vigilant about crude oil changes [39]. - **PTA**: May oscillate in the short term, be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [40]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: May be under pressure in the short term, and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [41]. - **Short - Fiber**: May oscillate following costs in the short term, control risks, and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [43]. - **Bottle Chips**: Expected to oscillate following the cost side, and control risks [44]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Pay attention to consumption sustainability and mine restart progress [45]. - **Copper**: Expected to have a high - level oscillation [48]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to have a phased correction [50]. - **Zinc**: Expected to oscillate within a range [52]. - **Lead**: Expected to have a wide - range oscillation [54]. - **Tin**: The price is expected to rise [55]. - **Nickel**: Expected to oscillate [56]. - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: For soybean meal, consider exiting long positions when it continues to rise; for soybean oil, consider long - buying opportunities in the low - cost support range [58]. - **Palm Oil**: Consider buying on corrections [60]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Consider a bullish approach for rapeseed oil [63]. - **Cotton**: The price is expected to be weak [67][68]. - **Sugar**: The price is expected to be under pressure and oscillate weakly [72][73]. - **Apples**: The price is expected to be strong [75]. - **Hogs**: Consider short - selling opportunities on rebounds and follow consumption changes [78]. - **Eggs**: Consider closing short positions and then temporarily wait and observe [82]. - **Corn and Starch**: For corn, it is advisable to wait and observe; corn starch may follow the corn market [85][86]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed down. The 30 - year main contract fell 0.31% to 115.570 yuan, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.04% to 108.430 yuan, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.06% to 105.855 yuan, and the 2 - year main contract remained flat at 102.460 yuan [5]. - **Policy and News**: The central bank conducted 375 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on November 21, with a net investment of 162.2 billion yuan. The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on the management measures for central budget - inner investment in rural revitalization [5]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The CSI 300 index futures (IF) main contract fell 0.13%, the SSE 50 index futures (IH) main contract fell 0.20%, the CSI 500 index futures (IC) main contract rose 0.55%, and the CSI 1000 index futures (IM) main contract rose 0.84% [8]. - **Industry Situation**: As of the end of October, the national cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.75 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.3%. The domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, but the valuation of domestic assets is low, and the market sentiment has warmed up recently [9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the gold main contract closed at 930.32, up 0.36%, and the night - session closed at 938.68; the silver main contract closed at 11,808, up 1.10%, and the night - session closed at 11,975 [11]. - **Industry Situation**: The global trade and financial environment is complex. The "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. The slowdown of the US labor market and the expected Fed rate cuts are also beneficial to precious metals [11]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. The spot price of Tangshan common carbon billet was 2,980 yuan/ton, the spot price of Shanghai rebar was between 3,090 - 3,250 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot - rolled coil was quoted at 3,270 - 3,290 yuan/ton [12]. - **Industry Situation**: In the medium term, the price of finished products is dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is declining year - on - year, and the market will enter the off - season. The supply side has over - capacity, and the inventory pressure is obvious [12]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated and consolidated. The spot price of PB powder at the port was 795 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Super Special powder was 675 yuan/ton [14]. - **Industry Situation**: Since October, the daily output of hot metal has declined, the import volume of iron ore has increased year - on - year, and the port inventory has continued to rise [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to be weak [16]. - **Industry Situation**: For coking coal, the impact of safety inspections on production is weakening, and the supply has increased. For coke, the fourth - round increase in the spot purchase price has been implemented, but the demand from steel mills may weaken [16]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the manganese - silicon main contract rose 0.50% to 5,630 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron main contract rose 0.04% to 5,456 yuan/ton [18]. - **Industry Situation**: The supply of manganese ore from Gabon has decreased, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. The cost of ferroalloys has increased, and the output has decreased. The overall surplus pressure has weakened [18][19]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rebounded after hitting a low [20]. - **Industry Situation**: The number of active oil and gas rigs in the US has increased for three consecutive weeks. The "28 - point" new plan has brought new changes to the Russia - Ukraine conflict [20][21]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil rebounded after hitting a low and closed below the moving average group [23]. - **Industry Situation**: The narrowing of the Asian fuel oil spot discount and the new plan for the Russia - Ukraine conflict are negative for fuel oil prices [24]. Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Hangzhou PP market oscillated downward, and the Yuyao LLDPE market had partial price drops [26]. - **Industry Situation**: The average start - up rate of the domestic polypropylene downstream industry has increased. The demand for modified PP and PP non - woven fabrics is strong, while the demand for traditional PP products is weak [26]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract fell 0.81%. The price in Shandong was adjusted down to 11,200 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable [28]. - **Industry Situation**: The international oil price is low, the supply of butadiene is loose, and the supply of synthetic rubber is also loose. The demand from tire enterprises is weak, and the inventory has increased [29]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract fell 0.10%, and the 20 - rubber main contract fell 0.53%. The Shanghai spot price was stable at around 14,800 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable [31]. - **Industry Situation**: The supply of natural rubber is affected by weather, and the demand from some enterprises has decreased. The inventory has increased slightly [31]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose 0.47%, and the spot price increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The basis was stable [33]. - **Industry Situation**: The supply of PVC exceeds demand, but the downward space is limited. The supply has increased this week, and the demand is mixed. The cost and profit have changed [33]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the urea main contract fell 1.15%. The price in Shandong Linyi was adjusted down by 10 yuan/ton, and the basis slightly widened [37]. - **Industry Situation**: The total production of urea has increased, the start - up rate has slightly decreased, and the demand from downstream products has changed differently. The inventory of urea enterprises is lower than expected [37]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PX main contract fell 0.06%. The PXN spread was adjusted to 260 US dollars/ton, and the short - process profit was stable [39]. - **Industry Situation**: The PX load has increased, and the import volume has decreased. The short - term PXN spread is strong, and the supply has decreased slightly. The cost side is oscillating, and there is a lack of driving force [39]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2601 main contract rose 0.04% [40]. - **Industry Situation**: The PTA load has decreased, the polyester load is stable, and the processing fee has declined. The cost side is weak, and the raw material PX price support is limited [40]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose 1.68% [41]. - **Industry Situation**: The overall start - up load of ethylene glycol has decreased, the port inventory is stable, and the demand from the downstream polyester industry is weak [41]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2602 main contract rose 0.91% [42]. - **Industry Situation**: The short - fiber supply is at a relatively high level, the demand has not changed much, and the cost drive has increased [43]. Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the bottle chips 2601 main contract rose 0.28% [44]. - **Industry Situation**: The raw material price support is limited, the bottle chips load is stable, the export growth rate has slowed down, and the supply - demand contradiction is not obvious. The main logic lies in the cost side [44]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract fell 2.88% to 90,480 yuan/ton [45]. - **Industry Situation**: The production of lithium carbonate is at a high level, and the demand from the energy storage and power battery sectors has improved. The social inventory is gradually decreasing [45]. Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 86,040 yuan/ton, unchanged [46]. - **Industry Situation**: The supply of copper concentrate is tight, the smelting profit is poor, and the demand from the real economy is weak. The global liquidity is loose, which provides support for copper prices [47]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 21,405 yuan/ton, up 0.12%; the alumina main contract closed at 2,733 yuan/ton, up 0.07% [49]. - **Industry Situation**: The supply of bauxite is sufficient, the alumina supply is in surplus, and the electrolytic aluminum production is stable. The demand is seasonally weak, and the aluminum price may be under pressure in the short term [49]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22,320 yuan/ton, down 0.13% [51]. - **Industry Situation**: The processing fee of zinc concentrate has declined rapidly, and some smelting enterprises are in losses. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory has increased [51]. Lead - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17,065 yuan/ton, down 0.58% [53]. - **Industry Situation**: The supply of lead concentrate is tight, the production of secondary lead is growing slowly, and the demand from the battery sector is mixed. The inventory has increased [53]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract rose 0.05% to 294,380 yuan/ton [55]. - **Industry Situation**: The supply of tin ore is tight, the production of smelters is affected, and the demand has certain resilience. The refined tin inventory is decreasing [55]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract rose 0.69% to 116,100 yuan/ton [56]. - **Industry Situation**: The price of nickel ore is stable, the production of nickel - iron plants is affected, and the demand from the stainless steel sector is weak. The inventory is relatively high, and the market is in surplus [56]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell 0.20% to 3,011 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract fell 0.46% to 8,168 yuan/ton [57]. - **Industry Situation**: The Brazilian soybean planting progress is slightly slower, and the US soybean harvest is basically completed. The soybean supply is relatively loose, and the demand for soybean oil has improved slightly [57][58]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil has fallen for three consecutive days. The export volume from November 1 - 20 decreased compared with the previous month. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a medium level in the past 7 years [59]. - **Industry Situation**: The price of palm oil may be affected by the exchange rate and demand. The production may decline seasonally, and the inventory may decrease [59]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: The Canadian rapeseed rose slightly. The price of rapeseed oil is affected by the crude oil price. The domestic import of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil has changed [61][62]. - **Industry Situation**: The inventory of rapeseed in China is at a low level in the past 7 years, and the inventory of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil is at a relatively high level [62]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton oscillated higher, and the overnight external cotton rebounded slightly [64]. - **Industry Situation**: The USDA has raised the global and US cotton production and inventory forecasts. The domestic cotton production is high, and the downstream demand is weak [64][67]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Zhengzhou sugar rebounded slightly, and the overnight external raw sugar