丙烯期货主力合约日内继续围绕5日均线窄幅整理。基本面上,供应延续偏紧态势,叠加企业库存无压,报盘探 涨意愿凸显。下游刚需买盘加强,低端成交溢价明显,实单重心宽幅走高。 聚烯烃期货主力合约延续低位区间整理格局。基本面上，聚乙烯现货市场货源供应稳定，然下游订单跟进缓 慢,"旺季"需求提升不明显,工厂或维持刚需补库,市场氛围偏于谨慎。聚丙烯前期新增装置投产,供应压 力增加,上游石化企业积极降库,虽然进入旺季,但下游需求回升缓慢,中间商心态较为谨慎,下游企业根据 订单情况进行采购,需求释放偏弱,价格上行驱动不足。 【纯苯-苯乙烯】 日内统苯期价在6000元/吨以上震荡为主,华东现货偏强,山东现货情绪向好。盛虹重整检修,周度开工略有下 降，吉林石化新装置投产，周产量小幅提升,加工差咯有反弹,甚差弱势震荡。基于国内检修及需求季节性回 升预期,三季度国内统苯市场供需或有改善,不宜过度悲观;但当前下游盈利不佳,进口预期持续施压,统苯 价格低位震荡,关注需求改善节奏。 苯乙烯期货主力合约日内窄幅波动。基本面上,目前北方低价一定程度股制苯乙烯上涨空间,但因9月下宁波大 装置检修，区域内下游有提前备货行为，使得本月华东港口累库节奏 ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 09 月 10 日 | ◆股指： | 宏观金融 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | --- | --- | | ◆国债： | 保持观望 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 逢低做多 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 观望或逢低持多，短线交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议待回落后逢低布局多单 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 震荡运行 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡运行 | | ◆纯碱： | 空 01 多 05 套利 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 震荡运行 | | ◆橡胶： | 偏强震荡 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 宽幅震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡运行 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Gold, Silver, Copper [4] - **Bearish**: Carbonate Lithium, Thread Steel, Hot Rolled Coil, Soda Ash, Float Glass [4][6][8] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Coking Coal, Coke [6][8] - **Cautiously Bullish**: Rubber [10] - **Sideways**: Treasury Bonds, Alumina, Aluminum, Nickel, Polysilicon, Iron Ore, Crude Oil, Methanol, Polyolefin, Zhengzhou Cotton [1][4][6][8][10] Core Views - The A - share market is in a stage of shock consolidation, but the upward trend remains unchanged due to abundant liquidity and high allocation value of Chinese equity assets [1] - The bond market is in a sideways pattern with cautious sentiment and limited directional drivers [1] - Precious metals are in a bullish pattern due to increased short - term risk - aversion sentiment and the Fed's likely shift to easing [4] - Some industrial metals have different trends. Copper is bullish due to supply tightness, while nickel is in a sideways pattern with supply - demand contradictions [4] - Energy and chemical products show various trends. Lithium carbonate is bearish due to supply pressure, and polyolefin may rebound with increased supply and demand [4][10] - Building materials like steel and glass are under pressure. Steel has supply - demand contradictions, and glass may face price pressure if demand is weak [6][8] Summary by Variety Stock Index - The two - margin balance has reached a record high of 2.91 trillion yuan. The stock index has entered a shock consolidation stage, but the upward trend remains due to abundant liquidity [1] Treasury Bonds - The bond market is in a sideways pattern. The stock - bond seesaw effect has weakened, and market sentiment is cautious [1] Precious Metals - Gold and silver are in a bullish pattern. The Fed's shift to easing and risk - aversion sentiment have strengthened their financial and monetary attributes [4] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Bullish. Supply is tight, and the mid - term upward trend is clear [4] - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Alumina is in a sideways pattern with limited downside. Aluminum has strong support, and long positions can be held [4] - **Nickel**: Sideways. Supply is abundant, and the price is under pressure from the long - term surplus [4] Carbonate Lithium - Bearish. Supply remains high, and short - term prices are under pressure [4][6] Polysilicon - Sideways. Supply pressure has increased significantly, and the price increase space is limited [6] Steel and Iron Ore - **Thread Steel**: Bearish. Inventory is increasing seasonally, and prices are expected to be weak [6] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: Bearish. Supply - demand contradictions are accumulating, and prices may continue to be weak [6] - **Iron Ore**: Sideways. High iron - water production eases supply - demand contradictions, and prices will range between 760 - 820 [6] Coking Coal and Coke - Bearish. Demand is weak, and prices are under pressure, but the decline of coking coal may slow down [6][8] Soda Ash and Glass - **Soda Ash**: Bearish. Supply is greater than demand, and prices are under downward pressure [8] - **Float Glass**: Bearish. Demand is hard to digest supply, and prices are under pressure [8] Crude Oil - Sideways. Geopolitical factors may cause short - term price increases, but long - term supply pressure is large [8] Methanol - Sideways. High imports and expected production increases will keep prices under pressure [8] Polyolefin - Sideways. Supply and demand are both increasing, and prices are expected to stop falling and rebound [10] Cotton - Sideways. New cotton production is expected to increase, and the peak - season expectation is weak [10] Rubber - Bullish. Supply - demand structure is improving, and prices are supported [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Equities**: Bullish [2] - **Treasury Bonds**: Bearish [2] - **Silver**: Bullish [1][5] - **Copper**: Bullish [5] - **Aluminum Oxide**: Bearish [5] - **Aluminum**: Bullish [5] - **Nickel**: Bullish [5] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Bearish [7] - **Industrial Silicon**: Neutral [7] - **Polysilicon**: Bearish [7] - **Rebar**: Bearish [7] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Bearish [7] - **Iron Ore**: Neutral [7] - **Coking Coal**: Neutral [9] - **Coke**: Neutral [9] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish [9] - **Float Glass**: Bearish [9] - **Crude Oil**: Neutral [9] - **Methanol**: Bearish [9] - **Polyolefin**: Bearish [11] - **Cotton**: Neutral [11] - **Rubber**: Bullish [11] Core Views - The upward trend of the stock index remains unchanged, with short - term fluctuations. The bullish position of IF can be held patiently, while the bond market remains cautious [2] - The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, and the previous long positions of silver AG2510 can be held. The production of PP has reached a record high, and new short positions can be entered [1][3] - The prices of precious metals are strong, and the long positions of silver contracts can be held. The copper price is strong due to a weak dollar and tight supply, while the alumina price is under pressure, and the aluminum price is resilient [5] - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are loose, and the previous short positions can be held cautiously. The polysilicon market will maintain a weak shock in the short term [7] - The prices of steel products are expected to be weak, and the profit of steelmaking tends to shrink. The short - term iron ore contract maintains a range - bound operation [7] - The actual demand for coking coal and coke is poor, but there are disturbances in production. The supply of soda ash is easy to increase but difficult to decrease, and the willingness of the glass near - month contract to accept orders is weak [9] - The oil price may rise due to geopolitical factors in the short term, but there is great pressure on the supply side in the medium and long term. The methanol supply pressure increases in September, and the price will further decline [9] - In September, the PE trend is still stronger than PP, and the long L - PP arbitrage can be held. The supply and demand of cotton are expected to be relatively loose, and the price is in a weak shock. The demand for rubber is supported [11] Summary by Category Financial Futures - The upward trend of the stock index remains unchanged, and the previous long positions of IF2509 can be held. The bond market is still cautious [1][2] Commodity Futures Precious Metals - The prices of precious metals are strong. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, and the long positions of silver AG2510 and silver 10 - contract can be held [1][3][5] Non - Ferrous Metals - The copper price is strong due to a weak dollar and tight supply. The alumina price is under pressure, and the aluminum price is resilient. The Indonesian strike causes concerns about nickel supply, and the nickel price is strong in the short term [5] Energy Metals - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are loose, and the previous short positions can be held cautiously. The polysilicon market will maintain a weak shock in the short term [7] Steel and Ore - The prices of steel products are expected to be weak, and the profit of steelmaking tends to shrink. The short - term iron ore contract maintains a range - bound operation [7] Coal and Coke - The actual demand for coking coal and coke is poor, but there are disturbances in production, and the prices are in a shock [9] Chemicals - The supply of soda ash is easy to increase but difficult to decrease, and the willingness of the glass near - month contract to accept orders is weak. The oil price may rise due to geopolitical factors in the short term, but there is great pressure on the supply side in the medium and long term. The methanol supply pressure increases in September, and the price will further decline [9] Polyolefins - In September, the PE trend is still stronger than PP, and the long L - PP arbitrage can be held [11] Agricultural Products - The supply and demand of cotton are expected to be relatively loose, and the price is in a weak shock. The demand for rubber is supported [11]

Industry Investment Ratings Macro Finance - Index Futures: Bullish in the medium to long term, recommend buying on dips [1] - Treasury Bonds: Hold and wait [1] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: Range trading [1] - Rebar: Range trading [1] - Glass: Weakening with oscillations [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: Recommend holding a moderate long position at low levels [1] - Aluminum: Recommend buying on dips after a pullback [1] - Nickel: Recommend waiting or shorting on rallies [1] - Tin: Range trading [1] - Gold: Range trading [1] - Silver: Range trading [1] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: Oscillating [1] - Soda Ash: Short 01 contract and long 05 contract for arbitrage [1] - Caustic Soda: Oscillating [1] - Styrene: Oscillating [1] - Rubber: Oscillating [1] - Urea: Oscillating [1] - Methanol: Oscillating [1] - Polyolefins: Wide - range oscillations [1] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Oscillating [1] - Apples: Oscillating [1] - Jujubes: Oscillating [1] Agricultural and Livestock - Hogs: Short on rallies [1] - Eggs: Short on rallies [1] - Corn: Wide - range oscillations [1] - Soybean Meal: Range oscillations [1] - Oils and Fats: Oscillating with a bullish bias [1] Core Views The report provides trading strategies and market analysis for various futures products across different industries. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, cost, macro - economic policies, and international events to assess the market trends of each product and gives corresponding investment suggestions. Summary by Industry Black Building Materials - **Double Coking Coal**: Expected to oscillate. Coal prices continue to decline, with production gradually resuming after rainfall. Downstream is cautious, and it is recommended to trade within the range, with JM2601 focusing on [1110 - 1250] and J2601 on [1610 - 1780] [5] - **Rebar**: Expected to oscillate. Futures prices are in a narrow - range oscillation. Fundamental data shows changes in demand, production, and inventory. It is recommended to trade within the range, with RB2510 focusing on [3100 - 3200] [5] - **Glass**: Near - month contracts may decline slightly, and it is recommended to take a short - term bearish view. The main 01 contract is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the 1150 - 1200 range breakthrough. High inventory is the main factor suppressing prices [6] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Expected to oscillate at a high level. Positive news from the Jackson Hole meeting and domestic policies boost copper prices. Although there are some constraints in the short - term supply and demand, there is potential for price increases in the future. It is recommended to hold a moderate long position at low levels, with the short - term operating range at 79500 - 81000 yuan/ton [8][9] - **Aluminum**: Expected to oscillate at a high level. The price of bauxite is supported, and the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing. With the arrival of the demand peak season and marginal improvement in inventory, it is recommended to buy on dips [8][9][10] - **Nickel**: Expected to oscillate weakly. The nickel industry has an oversupply situation in the medium to long term, and it is recommended to wait or short on rallies [12] - **Tin**: Expected to oscillate. Supply improvement is limited, and demand is weak in the off - season. It is recommended to trade within the range, with the reference range of the SHFE Tin 09 contract at 25.9 - 27.6 million yuan/ton [13] - **Silver and Gold**: Expected to oscillate. Powell's dovish speech and other factors support precious metal prices. It is recommended to buy on dips after a price correction, with the reference range of the SHFE Silver 10 contract at 8900 - 9600 and the SHFE Gold 10 contract at 765 - 810 [13][14] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Expected to oscillate weakly. High inventory, uncertain export sustainability, and large upstream production pressure lead to a weak supply - demand situation. It is recommended to pay attention to the 5100 level pressure on the 01 contract [15][16][17] - **Caustic Soda**: Expected to oscillate. Spot price increases slow down, and there is a short - term correction. It is recommended to pay attention to the 2650 level support on the 01 contract [17][18] - **Styrene**: Expected to oscillate weakly. Supply and demand are under pressure, and it is recommended to pay attention to the 7300 level pressure [19][20] - **Rubber**: Expected to oscillate. New rubber supply is slow, and inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to pay attention to the 15400 - 16500 range [20][21] - **Urea**: Expected to be neutral. Supply is increasing, demand is scattered, and inventory is accumulating. It is expected to be weak first and then strong, with the support level at 1680 - 1720 [22] - **Methanol**: Expected to oscillate weakly. Supply is increasing, demand has some positive factors, but port inventory is accumulating rapidly [23] - **Polyolefins**: Expected to oscillate. The cost of coal - based olefins provides strong support, supply and demand show different trends for polyethylene and polypropylene, and inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to pay attention to the 7200 - 7500 range for L2601 and 6900 - 7200 for PP2601 [24][25] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to short the 01 contract and long the 05 contract for arbitrage. The spot market is weak, and there is a large inventory pressure in the short term, while the far - month contract may be relatively strong [26][27][28] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Expected to oscillate. Global cotton supply and demand are improving, but new cotton production is expected to increase significantly, and it is recommended to prepare for hedging [29] - **Apples**: Expected to oscillate. Early - maturing apples are on the market, and the inventory of Fuji apples is stable. It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation based on low inventory and growth factors [30] - **Jujubes**: Expected to oscillate. The growth of jujubes is in the expansion period, and it is expected that the price will oscillate upward in the near future [30] Agricultural and Livestock - **Hogs**: Overall under pressure. There is a short - term expectation of price increases at the end of the month, but the supply is large in the medium to long term. It is recommended to take profit on short positions on 11 and 01 contracts and wait for rallies to add short positions, and also pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [32][33][34] - **Eggs**: It is recommended to short on rallies. The current supply is sufficient, and the long - term high supply situation may be difficult to reverse. It is recommended to wait for rallies to short on the main 10 contract or hold put options, and take a bearish view on the 12 and 01 contracts [34] - **Corn**: Expected to oscillate within a range. The supply is sufficient in the short term, and new corn production is expected to be good. It is recommended to wait for rallies to short on the 11 contract and take profit on the 11 - 1 reverse arbitrage [35][36] - **Soybean Meal**: Expected to have limited upside. Domestic arrivals are abundant from September to October, and prices are under pressure, but there is support at the bottom. It is expected to trade within the [3030, 3130] range in the short term [35][38] - **Oils and Fats**: Expected to oscillate at a high level. The fundamentals of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are mixed. It is recommended to trade within the range, with the support and pressure levels for the 01 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil as mentioned, and also pay attention to the long palm oil 1 - 5 spread arbitrage strategy [39][40][41][42][43][44][45]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macrofinance: Long-term bullish on stock indices, suggesting buying on dips; neutral on treasury bonds, suggesting holding [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Suggesting range trading; bearish on near-term glass contracts [1][8] - Non-ferrous Metals: Suggesting moderately holding long positions at low levels for copper; buying on dips for aluminum; suggesting range trading for nickel and tin; buying on dips for silver and gold after price corrections [1][10] - Energy and Chemicals: PVC is expected to oscillate weakly; soda ash suggests a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage strategy; other products are mostly expected to oscillate [1][19] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to oscillate strongly; apples and jujubes are expected to oscillate [1][34] - Agricultural and Livestock: Bearish on pigs and eggs when prices are high; corn is expected to oscillate within a range; soybean meal is expected to have limited upside; oils are expected to oscillate at high levels [1][38] Core Views - The global stock market has shown a synchronized upward trend after the tariff conflict, mainly due to the global pricing of interest rate cut expectations and the recovery of manufacturing prosperity. The A-share market is expected to enter an upward trend, with the realization of profit improvement expectations as the main driver in the next stage [5] - The bond market shows a stock-bond seesaw effect. Although the bond market is under pressure from the strong performance of the equity market, there is still room for the central bank to increase its holdings of treasury bonds, and the market expects a bond market recovery [5][6] - The prices of black building materials such as coking coal, steel, and glass are affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and safety inspections, and are expected to maintain an oscillating or weakening trend in the short term [7][8] - The prices of non-ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, and nickel are influenced by factors such as global central bank policies, supply and demand, and inventory. Some metals are expected to have upward potential in the future [10][11] - The prices of energy and chemical products such as PVC, caustic soda, and styrene are affected by factors such as cost, supply and demand, and macro policies, and are expected to oscillate in the short term [19][22] - The prices of agricultural products such as cotton, apples, and jujubes are affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policies, and are expected to oscillate or show a strong oscillating trend [34][35] - The prices of agricultural and livestock products such as pigs, eggs, and corn are affected by factors such as supply and demand, production capacity, and consumption seasons, and are expected to show different trends in the short and long term [38][40] Summary by Directory Macrofinance - Stock Indices: On Tuesday, the market oscillated and adjusted, with the three major indices showing different trends. The trading volume exceeded 2 trillion yuan for 10 consecutive days. The market is expected to enter an upward trend, and investors should maintain positions, choose opportunities, and make appropriate internal high-low switches [5] - Treasury Bonds: On Tuesday, the bond market showed a stock-bond seesaw effect. Although the bond market was under pressure from the equity market, the news that the central bank has room to increase its holdings of treasury bonds boosted the bond market. The bond market is expected to recover [5][6] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: On August 25, coal prices continued to decline, with the sales atmosphere being cold and the decline slightly increasing. The downstream market has a low willingness to purchase, and safety inspections continue to be upgraded. It is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [7] - Steel: On Tuesday, steel futures prices were weak. The supply and demand in the real economy have weakened, but the off-season is coming to an end. It is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [8] - Glass: On August 26, glass futures declined. High inventory is the main factor suppressing prices. The near-term contract is expected to decline slightly, while the long-term contract can be observed for signs of stabilization [8] Non-ferrous Metals - Copper: After the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, Powell's dovish remarks boosted copper prices. The domestic market demand has increased, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, with a suggested strategy of moderately holding long positions at low levels [10] - Aluminum: The price of bauxite in Guinea has increased, and the production and transportation have been affected by the rainy season. The domestic downstream demand is expected to enter the peak season, and the inventory has shown marginal improvement. It is recommended to buy on dips [11] - Nickel: The price of nickel ore is expected to remain stable, and the refined nickel market is in a surplus situation. The price of nickel iron is stable, and the price of stainless steel has declined. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the medium and long term [14][15] - Tin: The domestic refined tin production has increased, and the import of tin concentrate has decreased. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand in the consumer electronics and photovoltaic sectors is weak. It is recommended to conduct range trading [15] - Silver and Gold: Powell's dovish remarks at the central bank summit have increased the market's expectation of an interest rate cut in September. The trade negotiation results have been announced, and the market is optimistic about the signing of a trade agreement between Europe and the United States. It is recommended to buy on dips after price corrections [17] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, and the demand is affected by the real estate market and exports. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to policy and cost disturbances [19][20] - Caustic Soda: The spot price increase has slowed down, and there is a short-term callback due to warehouse receipt factors. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking and export conditions [22] - Styrene: The cost is under pressure, the supply and demand are expected to be weak, and the macro policy is favorable. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to factors such as oil prices and pure benzene supply [24] - Rubber: The fundamentals of natural rubber have changed little, and the inventory has decreased. The tire companies' willingness to purchase high-priced raw materials has decreased. It is expected to oscillate within a range [25][26] - Urea: The supply has increased, the agricultural demand is scattered, the compound fertilizer inventory is high, and the enterprise inventory has continued to accumulate. It is expected to be weak first and then strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the price support level [28] - Methanol: The supply has increased slightly, the demand from the methanol-to-olefins industry is stable, and the traditional downstream demand is weak. The inventory has increased. It is expected to oscillate due to the influence of industrial product prices [29][30] - Polyolefins: The cost is supported by coal-based olefins, the supply of polyethylene has decreased due to maintenance, the downstream demand has increased slightly, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the L contract is expected to have stronger support [30][31] - Soda Ash: The spot market is still sluggish, and the 09 contract faces delivery pressure. The supply is still at a high level, and the downstream demand has improved slightly. It is recommended to implement a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage strategy [33] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: The global cotton supply and demand situation has improved, the macro environment has become better, and the peak season is approaching. The cotton price is expected to be strong [34][35] - Apples: The early-maturing apples are on the market, with the quality and price varying. The inventory of Fuji apples is stable and light. It is expected to maintain a high-level oscillating trend based on low inventory and growth factors [35] - Jujubes: The jujube trees are in the fruit expansion period, and the weather may affect the quality. The market price is expected to oscillate upward in the near term [37] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: The market has a bullish expectation for the end of the month and the beginning of the next month, but the spot performance is disappointing. The supply is large, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to take a short position on the 11 and 01 contracts and consider a long 05 and short 03 arbitrage strategy [38][40] - Eggs: The current main contract has a large premium. The spot price may rebound slightly, and it is recommended to short when the price rebounds. In the medium and long term, the supply is expected to remain high, and attention should be paid to factors such as chicken culling and cold storage eggs [40][42] - Corn: The new corn is about to be listed, and the supply is expected to increase. The cost has decreased, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rebounds or implement a 11-1 reverse arbitrage strategy [42][44] - Soybean Meal: The domestic soybean arrival volume is sufficient from September to October, and the price is under pressure from state reserves. However, the cost provides support, and it is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [44][45] - Oils: The prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are affected by factors such as supply and demand, inventory, and policies. They are expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips or implement a rolling long strategy. Attention should be paid to the palm oil 1-5 spread arbitrage opportunity [46][51]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Plastic: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Styrene: ★★★, meaning a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - PX: ★☆★, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for an upward trend but limited operability on the market [1] - PTA: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★, meaning a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Methanol: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Urea: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - PVC: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for an upward trend but limited operability on the market [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for an upward trend but limited operability on the market [1] - Glass: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall performance of the chemical futures market is diverse, with different products showing various trends and fundamentals [2][3][5] - The supply and demand relationship, production costs, seasonal factors, and policy impacts are the main factors affecting the price trends of chemical products [2][5][6] Summary by Categories Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated narrowly during the day. Production enterprises have low inventory pressure and still have a certain willingness to support prices, but downstream demand has weakened [2] - Polyolefin futures also fluctuated narrowly. Polyethylene domestic supply has increased, and the demand for PO film is entering the peak production season, but short - term downstream procurement willingness is low. Polypropylene supply is expected to increase slightly, and new orders from downstream are difficult to improve significantly [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene fluctuated narrowly. The port inventory has decreased slightly, but domestic demand is weak. There is an expectation of supply - demand improvement in the third quarter, but high imports still pose pressure [3] - Styrene futures closed down in a volatile manner. Cost support has slightly improved, but there is a lack of upward momentum. Supply remains high, and demand is stable with minor changes [3] Polyester - PX price once rose sharply due to rumors of device maintenance, but then fell back. The supply - demand expectation is improving, but stronger drivers are needed for further price increases [5] - Ethylene glycol is short - term strong, and its medium - term upward trend depends on policies and the pace of peak - season demand recovery [5] - Short fiber is mainly driven by cost. If demand improves in the medium term, it can be considered for long - position allocation. Bottle chip has long - term over - capacity pressure, and its processing margin has weakened [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices fell, and the near - month contracts had a larger decline. Domestic supply has increased, demand has weakened, and port inventory is expected to accumulate rapidly [6] - Urea futures prices fluctuated weakly. Supply is high, demand is weak, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC weakened during the day. Supply is high, demand is weak, and social inventory has been increasing since July. The price may fluctuate within a range [7] - Caustic soda prices fell from a high level. Although demand has supported inventory decline, there is supply pressure and price resistance from downstream, so further price increases are limited [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices fell. Supply fluctuated slightly, inventory is high, and the weak - reality pattern continues. However, the demand for heavy soda has increased slightly [8] - Glass prices weakened. Supply is stable, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating slowly. The price is expected to have limited downward space [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are recommended for long - term bullishness with a strategy of buying on dips; Treasury bonds suggest maintaining a wait - and - see stance [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar suggest range trading; glass's 09 contract is considered from a short - selling perspective [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper suggests range trading or waiting; aluminum recommends buying on dips; nickel suggests waiting or short - selling on rallies; tin and silver suggest range trading; gold recommends buying on dips after price corrections [1][11][14][17][18] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC is expected to oscillate weakly; soda ash's 09 contract suggests holding short positions; caustic soda is expected to oscillate strongly; styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol suggest range trading; polyolefins are expected to oscillate widely; [1][20][22][23][25][28][29] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to oscillate strongly; apples and jujubes suggest range trading [1][34][35][36] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs and eggs suggest short - selling on rallies; corn suggests range trading; soybean meal suggests limited upside; oils are expected to oscillate strongly [1][38][40][41][42][44] Core Views - In the short term, the index futures market has strong upward momentum due to abundant liquidity, increased investor enthusiasm, and potential policy support, but may experience phased adjustments. The bond market shows signs of self - repair, but the downward space of yields should be rationally viewed [6] - The black building materials market is generally in a state of oscillation. The coal market has price adjustments and inventory accumulation, and the supply - demand relationship of rebar and glass is complex, with high inventory in glass suppressing prices [8][9] - Non - ferrous metals are mostly in a high - level oscillation state. Factors such as global central bank policies, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes affect prices. Some varieties have potential upward space in the future [11][12][14] - The energy and chemical market is affected by factors such as cost, supply, demand, and macro - policies. Most varieties are in an oscillation state, and some varieties have supply - demand imbalances [20][21][23] - The cotton textile industry chain is affected by global supply - demand forecasts and seasonal factors, with cotton and cotton yarn showing strong oscillation trends [34] - The agricultural and livestock market is affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and weather. Pigs and eggs face supply pressure, while oils are supported by multiple factors and show strong oscillation trends [38][44] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Short - term upward space exists, but phased adjustments may occur. Long - term bullish, buy on dips [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: Maintain a wait - and - see stance. The bond market shows self - repair, but rationally view the downward space of yields [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Oscillate. Coal prices in main producing areas have adjustments, and the sales of some coal types are average [8] - **Rebar**: Oscillate. Supply - demand relationship is complex, and the price is near the cost of electric arc furnaces [8] - **Glass**: The 09 contract is considered from a short - selling perspective. High inventory suppresses prices, and the traditional peak season has limited impact on cold - repair expectations [9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High - level oscillation. Global central bank policies and supply - demand relationships affect prices, and there is potential upward space in the future [11][12] - **Aluminum**: Buy on dips. The supply - demand relationship is in a state of transition, and the downstream demand is expected to pick up [14] - **Nickel**: Wait or short - sell on rallies. The supply is in an oversupply pattern in the medium - long term [17] - **Tin**: Range trading. Supply improvement is limited, and demand is in the off - season [17] - **Silver and Gold**: Oscillate. Fed's potential interest - rate cuts and market expectations support prices, buy on dips after price corrections [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Oscillate weakly. High inventory and uncertain export sustainability, pay attention to policies and cost disturbances [20][21] - **Soda Ash**: Hold short positions in the 09 contract. High inventory and large arbitrage volume, with potential for further decline [33] - **Caustic Soda**: Oscillate strongly. Supply - demand relationship is favorable, and pay attention to downstream stocking rhythm [23] - **Styrene**: Oscillate. Fundamental support is limited, and the macro - environment is relatively warm [25] - **Rubber**: Oscillate. Typhoon weather affects supply, and downstream demand shows signs of improvement [26] - **Urea**: Range trading. Supply increases, demand is relatively scattered, and pay attention to downstream purchasing willingness [29] - **Methanol**: Range trading. Supply decreases slightly, downstream demand is weak, and port inventory accumulates [29] - **Polyolefins**: Oscillate widely. Cost is uncertain, and downstream demand is in the off - season to peak - season transition [30] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Oscillate strongly. Global supply - demand forecasts and seasonal factors are favorable [34] - **Apples**: Range trading. Low inventory and growth factors support prices [35] - **Jujubes**: Range trading. Pay attention to the impact of weather on fruit quality [36] Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: Short - sell on rallies. Supply pressure is large in the fourth quarter, and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [38][39][40] - **Eggs**: Short - sell on rallies. Supply is relatively sufficient, and pay attention to elimination and demand [40][41] - **Corn**: Range trading. New crop supply pressure and cost decline, pay attention to policies and substitutes [41] - **Soybean Meal**: Limited upside. Domestic supply is abundant in the short term, and prices may strengthen in the medium - long term [42][43] - **Oils**: Oscillate strongly. Supported by multiple factors, suggest a long - buying strategy on dips [44][51][52]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not clearly defined [1] - Methanol: Not clearly defined [1] - Pure Benzene: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with limited trading operability) [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a balanced short - term trend and poor trading operability) [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - PX: ★☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆★ [1] - Glass: ★☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Propylene: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market shows a mixed trend with different products having various supply - demand situations and price trends. Some products are affected by factors such as supply disruptions, demand changes, and inventory levels [2][3][5] Grouped Summaries Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate above the 5 - day average line. Downstream restocking is active, and supply - side news is positive, boosting prices [2] - Polyolefin futures have narrow fluctuations. Polyethylene has supply pressure and slow - growing demand, while polypropylene has supply support but slow - recovering demand [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices oscillate around 6200 yuan/ton. There is an expected seasonal improvement in the third quarter and potential pressure in the fourth quarter [3] - Styrene futures are in a consolidation pattern. Cost is weak, and the supply - demand is in a wide - balance state with potential inventory accumulation [3] Polyester - PTA is driven by cost and shows a strong trend. Terminal weaving is improving, and PX supply - demand is expected to improve [5] - Ethylene glycol prices rise to 4500 yuan/ton and then fall back. Supply is increasing, and inventory is rising [5] - Short - fiber supply - demand is stable and cost - driven. New capacity is limited, and mid - term long - position allocation is considered [5] - Bottle - chip industry has over - capacity, limiting profit margin recovery [5] Coal Chemicals - Methanol prices are weak. Import volume is slightly down, but port inventory may reach a high level at the end of the third quarter [6] - Urea prices fall after export news. Supply is loose in the short term, and the market is affected by sentiment and export news [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC shows an oscillating trend. Supply is high, demand is poor, and export pressure is increasing [7] - Caustic soda is strong. Non - aluminum seasonal restocking and demand increase support prices, but long - term supply pressure remains [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices rise. Supply may decline slightly, but inventory is high, and the long - term supply - demand is in surplus [8] - Glass prices rise. Inventory accumulation slows down, and cost increases provide support [8]

Report Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Propylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastics: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fibre: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chips: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The olefin - polyolefin market shows mixed trends. Propylene prices are boosted by improved supply - demand, while polyolefin has different supply - demand situations for polyethylene and polypropylene [2]. - The pure benzene - styrene market has different outlooks for different periods. There is a seasonal improvement expectation in Q3 for pure benzene, and benzene - styrene has stable supply and limited downstream boost [3]. - The polyester market has various factors affecting different products. PX has positive valuation, ethylene glycol is multi - factor intertwined, short - fibre has positive demand expectations, and bottle chips face long - term over - capacity pressure [5]. - The coal - chemical market has different performances for methanol and urea. Methanol has weak reality but strong expectation, and urea is affected by market sentiment and export news [6]. - The chlor - alkali market shows different trends for PVC and caustic soda. PVC is expected to be weak, and caustic soda is strong in the short - term but limited in long - term increase [7]. - The soda ash - glass market is weak. Soda ash has an over - supply situation, and glass has cost support but weak demand [8]. Summary by Categories Olefin - Polyolefin - Propylene futures rose, with positive supply - demand factors such as downstream restocking and supply - side changes [2]. - Polyolefin futures had a mixed performance. Polyethylene has supply pressure and slow demand, while polypropylene has short - term supply support and slow demand recovery [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene has a seasonal improvement expectation in Q3 but may face pressure in Q4. It is recommended for monthly - spread band trading [3]. - Styrene has cost support, stable supply, and limited downstream boost, maintaining a consolidation pattern [3]. Polyester - PX has positive valuation due to improved demand expectations. PTA is affected by device news with limited impact [5]. - Ethylene glycol has a mixed situation with increased supply and stable demand, and needs to focus on policy and demand recovery [5]. - Short - fibre has positive demand expectations in the peak season and is recommended for long - term allocation. Bottle chips face long - term over - capacity pressure [5]. Coal - Chemical - Methanol has weak current conditions but strong expectations, with port inventory issues and changes in supply and demand [6]. - Urea is affected by market sentiment and export news, with a loose short - term supply - demand situation [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC is expected to be weak due to high supply, low demand, and increased export pressure [7]. - Caustic soda is strong in the short - term due to demand for restocking but has long - term supply pressure [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash has an over - supply situation with high inventory at all levels, and its price is under pressure [8]. - Glass has cost support but weak demand, with a slowdown in inventory accumulation [8].