Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Fixed Income**: Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and a cautious approach is recommended [6][7]. - **Equity Index**: The volatility center of stock index futures is expected to gradually move up, and previous long positions can be held [9][10]. - **Precious Metals**: Market volatility is expected to increase significantly, and it is advisable to exit long positions and wait and see [13][14]. - **Base Metals and Building Materials**: Most products are expected to show weak or volatile trends, with some opportunities for long - positions on dips, but investors should pay attention to position management [15][17][20]. - **Energy**: Crude oil and fuel oil are expected to have upward space due to geopolitical risks, and long - position opportunities should be focused on [26][27][28]. - **Chemicals**: Most chemical products are expected to show volatile trends, with some having upward potential, and investors should pay attention to cost and supply - demand changes [32][46][47]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products have different trends. Some are expected to be strong, some weak, and investment strategies vary accordingly [72][80][84]. 3. Summary by Categories Fixed Income - **Treasury Bonds**: On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted 354 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 143.8 billion yuan. Due to the relatively low yield, economic recovery, and improved risk appetite, treasury bond futures are expected to face pressure [5][6]. Equity Index - **Stock Index Futures**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. Considering the low domestic asset valuation, economic resilience, and increased market sentiment, the volatility center of stock index futures is expected to rise [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose significantly. In 2025, global gold demand reached a record high. Given the complex trade - financial environment and central bank purchases, gold has allocation value, but recent speculation has increased, and market volatility is expected to widen [11][13]. Base Metals and Building Materials - **Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. In the medium - term, the price is dominated by supply - demand. With weak demand in the real estate industry and over - capacity, the price may continue to oscillate weakly [15]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rebounded significantly. The demand is at a low level, and the supply is increasing, with inventory at a high level. Technically, there are signs of stabilization, and investors can focus on long - position opportunities on dips [17]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose significantly. The supply of coking coal may decrease during the Spring Festival, and the demand for coke is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in the medium - term [20]. - **Ferroalloys**: On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures rose. The supply of manganese ore is gradually recovering, and the cost is stable. The overall supply is still loose, but the short - term surplus has decreased. Investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels [22][23]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly due to geopolitical tensions. Speculators increased their net long positions, and the number of active oil rigs increased slightly. Geopolitical risks are expected to remain high, and there is upward space for crude oil [24][26]. - **Fuel Oil**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil rose significantly, following the trend of crude oil. The supply in Singapore is tightening, and the price is expected to continue to rise [28]. Chemicals - **Polyolefins**: The PP and LLDPE markets showed different trends. The polyolefin market is expected to be in a tight supply - demand situation, and the price may rise in the short - term due to factors such as rising crude oil prices and production line maintenance [30][32]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. The price is supported by the increase in butadiene prices and high device operation rates, but limited by weak demand. It is expected to oscillate strongly [34][35]. - **Natural Rubber**: On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The supply is decreasing, and the cost is supported. The demand is expected to be stable to weak, and the inventory is increasing. It is expected to oscillate widely [36][38]. - **PVC**: On the previous trading day, PVC futures fell slightly. Although it is in the traditional off - season, the policy expectation may lead to a strong oscillation. In the medium - term, supply - demand may improve, but demand uncertainty should be noted [39][41]. - **Urea**: On the previous trading day, urea futures rose slightly. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, driven by export demand and cost support [42][45]. - **PX**: On the previous trading day, PX futures rose. The PXN spread and short - term profit are stable, the start - up rate is declining, and there is support from market sentiment and crude oil. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [46]. - **PTA**: On the previous trading day, PTA futures rose. The processing fee is at an average level, the inventory is low, the supply is stable, and the demand is seasonally weak. It is expected to oscillate within a range [47][48]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures showed a mixed trend. The overseas device maintenance is increasing, and the cost is supported, but the domestic coal - based device start - up is rising, and the inventory is increasing. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [49]. - **Short - Fiber**: On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. The supply is at a high level, the sales are improving, and the inventory is low. It is expected to follow the raw material price and oscillate [50][51]. - **Bottle Chips**: On the previous trading day, bottle chip futures rose. The production load is decreasing, and there are plans for concentrated production cuts during the Spring Festival. The export is increasing, and it is expected to follow the cost and oscillate [52]. - **Soda Ash**: On the previous trading day, soda ash futures rose. The supply is loose, the inventory is increasing slightly, and the downstream demand is weak. It is expected to be stable and weak before the festival [53][54]. - **Glass**: On the previous trading day, glass futures rose. The supply - demand pattern is loose, the inventory is high, and the cost support is weak. It is expected to oscillate before the festival [55]. - **Caustic Soda**: On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures rose slightly. The supply is high, the inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate before the festival, but caution is needed [56][57]. - **Pulp**: On the previous trading day, pulp futures rose. The inventory is increasing, the downstream demand is weak, and there is a lack of new orders. It is expected to have limited fluctuations before the festival [58]. Agricultural Products - **Lithium Carbonate**: On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The supply is at a high level, the demand is improving, and the inventory is decreasing. There is support for the price, but short - term volatility may increase [59][60]. - **Copper**: On the previous trading day, copper futures rose. The global copper concentrate supply is tight, but the demand is suppressed by high prices. The inventory is increasing. It is advisable to be cautious when chasing up [61][62]. - **Aluminum**: On the previous trading day, aluminum futures fell. The alumina market has an oversupply, and the electrolytic aluminum supply is inelastic. High prices suppress demand, and inventory is increasing. Caution is needed when chasing up [63][64][65]. - **Zinc**: On the previous trading day, zinc futures rose. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. Although the price has moved up, there is a possibility of a high - level correction [66][67]. - **Lead**: On the previous trading day, lead futures fell. The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range [68][69]. - **Tin**: On the previous trading day, tin futures fell. The supply is tight, and the demand has certain resilience. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, but risk control is needed [69]. - **Nickel**: On the previous trading day, nickel futures fell. The macro environment is complex, the cost is rising, but the demand is weak, and the inventory is at a high level. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies [70]. - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On the previous trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal futures rose. The Brazilian soybean harvest is progressing quickly, and the supply is relatively loose. There may be long - position opportunities for soybean meal at low - cost support levels, and long - position exit opportunities for soybean oil when the price rises [71][72]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil prices rose. The export is increasing, and the production is decreasing. There may be long - position opportunities after a correction [73][75]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed prices fell slightly. The import policy has changed, and the inventory of rapeseed meal is decreasing, while that of rapeseed oil is increasing. It is advisable to wait and see [76][77]. - **Cotton**: On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures fell. The USDA supply - demand report is favorable, and the domestic supply is expected to be tight in the future. It is recommended to go long in batches after a correction [78][80][81]. - **Sugar**: On the previous trading day, sugar futures showed a mixed trend. India's sugar production is expected to increase, and the domestic supply is under pressure. It is advisable to go short in batches after a rebound [82][84][85]. - **Apples**: On the previous trading day, apple futures rebounded slightly. The inventory is at a low level, and the production has decreased. The price is expected to be strong in the medium - to long - term, and long - position operations can be considered after a correction [86][87][88]. - **Hogs**: On the previous trading day, hog futures fell. The supply is under pressure in the first quarter, and it is advisable to wait and see [89]. - **Eggs**: On the previous trading day, egg futures fell. The supply is at a high level, and it is advisable to take profit on previous long - position spreads [91]. - **Corn and Starch**: On the previous trading day, corn futures rose slightly, and starch futures were flat. The supply - demand of corn is basically balanced, and starch may follow the corn market [92][93]. - **Logs**: On the previous trading day, log futures rose. The supply is decreasing, the inventory is decreasing, and the demand is entering the pre - festival end. The cost is rising, and the overall supply - demand is expected to be loose, but cost support is strengthening [95][96].

2026 年 1 月 28 日星期三 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 目录 | | --- | | 纸浆： 15 | | 碳酸锂： 16 | | --- | | 铜： 16 | | 铝： 17 | | 锌： 17 | | 铅： 18 | | 锡： 18 | | 镍： 19 | | 豆油、豆粕： 19 | | 棕榈油： 20 | | 菜粕、菜油： 20 | | 棉花： 21 | | 白糖： 22 | | 苹果： 23 | | 生猪： 24 | | 鸡蛋： 24 | | 玉米&淀粉： 25 | | 原木： 26 | | 免责声明 27 | 小结：预计仍有一定压力，保持谨慎。 股指： 上一交易日，股指期货涨跌不一，沪深 300 股指期货（IF）主力合约-0.20%，上 证 50 股指期货（IH）主力 0.00%，中证 500 股指期货（IC）主力合约 0.64%，中证 1000 股指期货（IM）主力合约 0.55%。 中国央行：2025 年四季度末 ...

期货市场交易指引 2026 年 01 月 27 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 观望 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 观望或轻仓滚动持多 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易或前期多单止盈 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 偏强运行 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡调整 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 反弹滚动空机会 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market has different trends and outlooks for various commodities and financial products. For example, the bond futures are expected to face pressure, the stock index is expected to have a gradually rising central fluctuation range, and the precious metals market is expected to have significant volatility [6][9][13] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rising 0.07%, 0.03%, 0.04%, and 0.01% respectively. The central bank carried out 125 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 38.3 billion yuan [5] - **Outlook**: The macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, and the bond futures are expected to face pressure. It is recommended to remain cautious [6] Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures changed by - 0.15%, - 0.66%, 3.36%, and 3.06% respectively [8] - **Outlook**: Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, the low valuation and economic resilience, along with the inflow of incremental funds, are expected to drive the central fluctuation range of the stock index to gradually rise. It is recommended to hold previous long positions [9] Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the gold and silver main contracts rose 2.58% and 6.97% respectively. Eurozone and US PMI data were released [11] - **Outlook**: The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, due to the recent sharp rise and increased speculation, the market volatility is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [13] Steel Products Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The spot prices of billets, rebar, and hot - rolled coils in different regions were given [15] - **Outlook**: In the medium term, the prices of finished products are dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. Rebar demand is in a downward trend, and the market is entering a demand off - season. The supply pressure has eased, and inventory consumption is fast. The prices are likely to continue weak oscillations, and investors can pay attention to opportunities to go long on pullbacks and manage positions carefully [15] Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. The spot prices of PB powder and Super Special powder were given. National pig iron daily output is low, and port inventory is rising [17] - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of the iron ore market has weakened, but there are signs of stabilization in futures. Investors can pay attention to opportunities to go long on pullbacks and manage positions carefully [17] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded significantly. The production of domestic coking coal is stable, and the demand for coke is weak [20] - **Outlook**: From a technical perspective, coking coal and coke futures may stop falling and rebound. Investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities and manage positions carefully [20] Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the manganese silicon and silicon iron main contracts rose 1.00% each. The spot prices of manganese silicon and silicon iron in different regions changed. The supply and demand of ferroalloys are in a certain situation, and the cost fluctuates slightly [22] - **Outlook**: Since the fourth quarter of 2025, the production of ferroalloys has declined, and the overall over - supply pressure persists. The cost is at a low level, and there is support for the low - level range. After a decline, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [23] Energy Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil bottomed out and rebounded. Relevant data showed that speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options, and the number of active oil and gas rigs increased. The US imposed new sanctions on Iran [24] - **Outlook**: CFTC data shows that US funds are still bullish on crude oil. The new US sanctions on Iran have pushed up crude oil prices. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities in the main crude oil contract [25] Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, fuel oil rose significantly and stood above the moving average group. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil inter - month inverse spread widened, and the crack spread continued to rise [27] - **Outlook**: It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities in the main fuel oil contract [28] Chemical Products Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou showed higher quotes, and the LLDPE price in Yuyao rose. The market has a strong desire to test higher prices, but demand follow - up is insufficient [29] - **Outlook**: The polyolefin market will face a supply - demand tight situation this week, and prices may continue to rise in the short term due to factors such as rising crude oil prices and some production line overhauls. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities [29] Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose 6.99%. Last week, the market rose, mainly supported by rising butadiene prices and high device operating rates, but limited by weak downstream demand. The inventory is accumulating [31] - **Outlook**: It is expected to show a strong oscillation, and it is necessary to pay attention to the price trend of butadiene, the recovery of downstream demand, and whether the device overhauls in January will be implemented [32] Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract and 20 - rubber main contract rose 3.29% and 3.27% respectively. The Shanghai spot price increased, and the basis was stable [34] - **Outlook**: It is expected to show a wide - range oscillation in the short term. The supply is shrinking, the cost support is still there, the demand of tire enterprises is expected to be weak, and the inventory is accumulating [34] PVC - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose 2.82%. The spot price increased, and the basis was stable. The current is the traditional off - season for PVC demand [36] - **Outlook**: Although it is in the traditional off - season, the policy expectation may lead to a strong oscillation in the short - term. In the medium - term, capacity clearance and export growth may improve the supply - demand situation. It is necessary to be vigilant about the uncertainty of demand [36] Urea - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the urea main contract rose 0.39%. The price in Shandong Linyi increased, and the basis was stable [40] - **Outlook**: The short - term urea price will maintain a strong oscillation, mainly driven by export demand and cost support. The supply is increasing, the demand of downstream products has different changes, and the inventory situation is given [40] PX - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the PX2603 main contract rose 2.93%. The PXN spread and PX - MX spread are at a certain level, and the PX load has declined [42] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the PXN spread and short - process profit are stable, the PX start - up rate is increasing, and the market sentiment and cost - end crude oil may provide support. It is expected to oscillate and adjust. It is recommended to participate in the low - level range and be vigilant about the fluctuation of external crude oil [43] PTA - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract rose 4.21%. The PTA device load is stable, the polyester load has decreased, and the processing fee has increased [44] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the PTA processing fee has adjusted to the average level of previous years, and the upward space may be limited. The inventory is still low, the supply - end changes are small, the demand - end has a seasonal decline, but the cost - end and market sentiment boost the market. It is expected to oscillate, and it is necessary to operate carefully and pay attention to oil price changes [44] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract increased in volume and rose 5.99%, mainly driven by device production cuts and market sentiment. The overall and synthetic - gas - based ethylene glycol operating loads have decreased, and some devices have plans for production cuts or shutdowns [45] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the supply - end of ethylene glycol has shrunk due to increased domestic and foreign device overhauls, and the market sentiment has been boosted. However, the port inventory still has pressure, and the pre - arrival volume at ports has increased significantly. There is obvious seasonal inventory accumulation pressure in January and February, and it may gradually enter the de - inventory channel in March. The upward space in the short - term may be limited. It is recommended to operate carefully and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [46] Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the short - fiber 2603 main contract rose 3.45%. The short - fiber device load has increased slightly, the downstream terminal start - up rate has decreased locally, and the factory's raw material inventory has increased [47] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the short - fiber supply remains at a relatively high level, the sales of polyester short - fiber have improved, the terminal factory is mainly digesting raw material inventory, and the low inventory may provide bottom support. It is mainly trading based on the cost - end logic and may oscillate with raw material prices. It is necessary to control risks and pay attention to cost changes and downstream pre - holiday inventory stocking [47] Bottle - Chip - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2603 main contract rose 4.4%. The bottle - chip processing fee has recovered, the factory load has decreased slightly, and there are plans for concentrated production cuts and restarts around the Spring Festival [48] - **Outlook**: Recently, the bottle - chip load has decreased slightly, and there are expectations of supply reduction around the Spring Festival. The export growth rate has increased, but the main logic is still on the cost - end. It is expected to oscillate with the cost - end. It is recommended to participate cautiously at low levels and pay attention to the implementation of overhaul devices [48] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 1198 yuan/ton, rising 2.04%. The production has decreased slightly, the inventory is still accumulating, the equipment operation is increasing, the downstream demand is general, and the price is relatively stable [49] - **Outlook**: The off - season characteristics are significant. The short - term market lacks substantial support, and the price is expected to adjust steadily. It is recommended to be cautious [51] Glass - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 1064 yuan/ton, rising 1.33%. The number of production lines remains unchanged, the inventory is increasing, the trader's inventory is also increasing, the enterprise's shipment has slowed down, and the downstream demand is shrinking [52] - **Outlook**: The market sentiment is calm, the industry profit is low, the downward space is limited. It may rise due to a technical rebound in the short - term, but it is necessary to pay attention to the risk of returning to the fundamentals. It is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival [52] Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2603 contract closed at 1945 yuan/ton, rising 0.15%. In winter, the supply is sufficient, the inventory is accumulating, the demand is weak, and the transportation in the north is affected by cold weather [53] - **Outlook**: The seasonal characteristics are significant. The pre - holiday trading sentiment may fluctuate due to the price fluctuation of alumina, but considering that the fundamentals of the middle and lower reaches have not improved significantly, it is recommended to be cautious [54] Pulp - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 5398 yuan/ton, rising 0.78%. The inventory is accumulating, the spot trading is light, and the prices of various types of pulp have declined to varying degrees [55] - **Outlook**: The downstream market's inventory stocking is approaching the end, and the port inventory is continuously accumulating. The market sentiment is pessimistic. Although the disk has a short - term technical rebound, it is necessary to treat it rationally [56] Carbonate Lithium - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the carbonate lithium main contract rose 7.31% to 181,520 yuan/ton. The macro - liquidity release has pushed up the commodity pricing center [57] - **Outlook**: The supply of lithium resources is elastic, the production is at a high level, the demand in the energy - storage and power - battery sectors has improved, the inventory is gradually decreasing, and the price has strong support below, but the short - term fluctuation may increase. It is necessary to control risks [57] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 102,830 yuan/ton, rising 2.21%. The US economic data is divided, the Fed's long - term monetary policy is expected to be loose, and the global copper concentrate is in short supply [58] - **Outlook**: The demand is suppressed by high prices, the inventory is accumulating, and the short - term supply - demand is loose. It is expected to adjust at a high level. It is necessary to pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate meeting this week [59] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,315 yuan/ton, rising 0.75%, and the alumina main contract closed at 2719 yuan/ton, falling 0.11%. The alumina market has a supply surplus, and the high aluminum price suppresses downstream demand [61] - **Outlook**: Both the upstream and downstream of the aluminum industry chain are under pressure in the short - term. It is expected to adjust at a high level [61] Zinc - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24,690 yuan/ton, rising 0.51%. The domestic refined zinc production has increased, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory has increased slightly [63] - **Outlook**: The zinc price lacks the momentum to continue rising and is unlikely to fall sharply. It is expected to oscillate and adjust [64] Lead - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17,145 yuan/ton, rising 0.29%. The lead concentrate processing fee is low, the supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory is increasing slightly [66] - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and the lead price is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation [66] Tin - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract rose 6.56% to 447,140 yuan/ton. The exchange has introduced cooling measures, and the geopolitical conflicts have pushed up the price center [68] - **Outlook**: The supply is tight, the demand has certain resilience, the inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly. It is necessary to control risks [68] Nickel - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel main contract rose 1.2% to 146,760 yuan/ton. The "strategic reserve" metals have generally risen, and the Indonesian nickel policy has changed [70] - **Outlook**: The nickel ore price has support, but the stainless - steel market is in the off - season, the demand is weak, and the refined nickel is in an oversupply situation. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant Indonesian policies [70] Agricultural Products Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract and soybean oil main contract rose 0.07% each. The spot prices of soybean meal and soybean oil in different regions changed. The market demand expectation has improved, and the South American weather concerns provide support [71] - **Outlook**: The domestic soybean import has slowed down, the oil - mill crushing is in a loss, the cost support has been adjusted downward, the soybean meal demand has a moderate increase, and the soybean oil demand has slightly improved. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities for soybean meal in the low - cost support range and consider exiting long - positions for soybean oil when the price rises [72] Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil has fallen due to profit

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. The Treasury bond futures are under pressure, and caution is advised. The stock index is expected to have its fluctuation center gradually move up, and previous long positions can be held. The precious metals market is expected to have significant fluctuations, and long positions can be liquidated and wait and see. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils may continue to be weakly volatile. The iron ore market's supply - demand pattern has weakened, and it may continue to correct in the short term. The coking coal and coke futures may continue to be weak in the short term. The ferroalloy has an overall over - supply pressure, and long positions in the low - level range can be considered after the price decline. The crude oil is expected to continue to rebound after the correction. The fuel oil, polyolefin, and synthetic rubber may have long - position opportunities. The natural rubber is expected to have a wide - range shock. The PVC may be strongly volatile. The urea is expected to be in a strong - oscillating state. The PX may be in an oscillating adjustment. The PTA may be in an oscillating operation. The ethylene glycol may face pressure in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see. The short - fiber may follow the raw material price to oscillate. The bottle - chip may follow the cost side to oscillate. The soda ash is suitable for range operation in the short term. The glass is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival. The caustic soda price is expected to continue to be weak in the short term. The pulp market is under pressure due to inventory and weak demand. The lithium carbonate price may have greater short - term fluctuations. The copper price is at a high level and may be adjusted. The aluminum price may be adjusted at a high level. The zinc price may face pressure and correct. The lead price may maintain a range - bound oscillation. The tin price may be strongly volatile. The nickel is in an over - supply pattern. The soybean meal may have long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range, and the soybean oil may consider liquidating long positions when the price rises. The palm oil may consider long - position opportunities after the correction. The rapeseed meal and oil may consider reducing and holding the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal and between soybean oil and rapeseed oil. The cotton price is expected to be strongly volatile in the medium - to - long term. The sugar price is expected to be bearish in the medium - to - long term. The apple price is expected to be strongly volatile in the medium - to - long term. The live pig market may face supply pressure in the first quarter, and it is advisable to wait and see. The egg market can consider a positive spread strategy. The corn and starch may follow the corn market, and the supply pressure of corn needs to be further released. The log price is expected to be stable, and the futures may oscillate at the bottom [5][6][7][10][12][14][15][19][21][24][26][29][30][35][37][39][40][42][43][45][46][48][49][51][52][54][56][58][60][63][64][66][68][71][73][74][77][78][81][84][85][87][89]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted 363.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 122.7 billion yuan. The People's Bank of China held a payment and settlement work meeting. The Treasury bond futures are under pressure due to factors such as the relatively low yield, the stable economic recovery, and the rising risk appetite [5][6]. Housing and Real Estate - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development stated that the real estate market is city - based, and cities should use regulatory autonomy. The government will continue to implement policies according to cities, support reasonable financing of real estate enterprises and housing demand, and promote the stable operation of the real estate market [6]. Stock Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The central bank in Guangdong adjusted the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing loans. The domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but the asset valuation is low, and the market sentiment has warmed up. It is expected that the fluctuation center of the stock index will gradually move up [7]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, the speculative sentiment has heated up significantly, and it is advisable to liquidate long positions and wait and see [9][10]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures declined slightly. In the medium term, the prices are dominated by industry supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is decreasing year - on - year, and the market is entering the off - season. The supply pressure has been relieved, and the inventory is slightly higher than last year. The prices may continue to be weakly volatile, and the hot - rolled coils may have a similar trend [12]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures continued to correct. The demand for iron ore has decreased, the supply is under pressure, and the port inventory is at a high level in the past five years. The supply - demand pattern has weakened, and it may continue to correct in the short term [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to fall. The production of coking coal is stable, and the demand from downstream coke enterprises has improved. The price increase of coke has been resisted by steel mills. The futures may continue to be weak in the short term [15]. Ferroalloy - On the previous trading day, the manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures had different performances. The supply of manganese ore has changed, the cost of ferroalloy has a narrow - range fluctuation, and the production and demand are both weak. The overall over - supply pressure continues, and long positions in the low - level range can be considered after the price decline [17][18][19]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated higher. Speculators have turned to hold net long positions in US crude oil futures, the number of oil and gas rigs has declined, and the US has adjusted its policy on Venezuelan energy. The crude oil is expected to continue to rebound after the correction [20][21]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated upward. The export volume of fuel oil from Singapore has increased, but the high inventory restricts the increase. The price difference in the spot market has improved, and long - position opportunities can be considered [23][24]. Polyolefin - On the previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou had mixed quotes, and the LLDPE price in Yuyao declined. The northern cold weather and the southern labor shortage have affected the production, but the demand from high - end manufacturing for modified PP is stable. The profit of some enterprises has recovered, and long - position opportunities can be considered [25][26]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. The market rise was supported by the increase in butadiene price and high device operation rate, but the downstream demand was weak. It is expected to be strongly volatile, and long - position opportunities can be considered [27][28][29]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The domestic rubber - tapping season is coming to an end, the demand for raw materials has increased, the demand from the tire industry has improved, but the inventory has continued to accumulate. It is expected to have a wide - range shock [30][31]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures declined. It is in the traditional off - season, but the policy expectation may make the market strongly volatile. The production capacity utilization rate has decreased, the demand from downstream enterprises has declined slightly, the cost has changed, and the inventory has increased. It may be strongly volatile [32][33][35]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures rose. The export demand and cost support make the price strongly oscillating. The daily production is high, the demand from the compound fertilizer industry is stable, and the inventory is lower than expected [36][37]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures rose. The PXN spread and short - process profit are stable, the operating rate has increased, and the cost side has support. It may be in an oscillating adjustment [38][39]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply has decreased slightly, the demand from the polyester industry has decreased, and the processing fee is at an average level. It may be in an oscillating operation [40]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures declined. The supply may increase, the port inventory is under pressure, and the expected arrival at the port has increased significantly. It may face pressure in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [41][42]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. The supply is at a relatively high level, the sales have improved, and the terminal factory is digesting raw material inventory. It may follow the raw material price to oscillate [43]. Bottle - Chip - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures rose. The load has decreased slightly, there will be concentrated production cuts around the Spring Festival, the export growth rate has increased, and it may follow the cost side to oscillate [44][45]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures declined. The supply is abundant, the inventory has continued to accumulate, and the downstream demand is average. It is suitable for range operation in the short term [46]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures declined. The supply is abundant, the inventory has decreased slightly, but the trader's inventory has increased. The market sentiment is stable, and it is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival [47][48]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures declined. The supply is sufficient, the inventory has continued to accumulate, and the demand is stable. The price is expected to continue to be weak in the short term [49]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures declined slightly. The import pulp market sentiment is weak, the price trend is divided, the inventory is at a high level and continues to accumulate, and the demand from paper mills is weak [50][51]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The market trading sentiment has cooled down. The supply is abundant, the demand from the energy storage and power battery sectors has improved, and the inventory has decreased. The price may have greater short - term fluctuations [52]. Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper futures were flat. The macro - environment is complex, the supply is tight, but the high price has suppressed the demand, and the inventory has increased. The price is at a high level and may be adjusted [53][54][55]. Aluminum - On the previous trading day, Shanghai aluminum and alumina futures rose. The bauxite supply is abundant, the alumina market is oversupplied, the electrolytic aluminum production increase is limited, and the demand is affected by the off - season and high price. The price may be adjusted at a high level [56][57]. Zinc - On the previous trading day, Shanghai zinc futures rose. The raw material supply is tight, the processing fee is under pressure, the consumption is seasonally weak, and the price may face pressure and correct [58][59]. Lead - On the previous trading day, Shanghai lead futures rose. The supply of lead concentrate is tight, the production of primary lead is restricted, the demand is differentiated, and the inventory is low. The price may maintain a range - bound oscillation [60][61]. Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin futures rose. The supply is tight due to geopolitical conflicts and slow production resumption, the demand has some resilience, and the inventory has decreased. The price may be strongly volatile [62][63]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel futures rose. The macro - environment is complex, the Indonesian nickel policy has changed, the supply cost may increase, but the downstream demand is weak, and it is in an over - supply pattern [64]. Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - On the previous trading day, soybean meal futures declined slightly, and soybean oil futures rose. The South American soybean harvest is slow, the dollar has weakened, the domestic soybean import has slowed down, the oil - mill crushing is in a loss, and the demand for soybean meal and oil has different performances. The soybean meal may have long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range, and the soybean oil may consider liquidating long positions when the price rises [65][66]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil price has risen to a seven - week high. The export has increased, the production has decreased, the domestic import has decreased, and the inventory is at a medium level in the past seven years. Long - position opportunities can be considered after the correction [67][68]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed futures rose. China will reduce the comprehensive tariff on Canadian rapeseed. The domestic rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal imports have changed, and the inventory has increased. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal and between soybean oil and rapeseed oil can be considered to be reduced and held [69][70][71]. Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures declined. The USDA supply - demand report is favorable, the domestic cotton production is high but the inventory accumulation is lower than expected, and the future planting area may be reduced. The demand is resilient. It is expected to be strongly volatile in the medium - to - long term, and long positions can be considered after the correction [72][73][74]. Sugar - On the previous trading day, Zhengzhou sugar futures declined. The Indian sugar production is expected to increase, the domestic sugar supply is sufficient, and there is pressure from domestic and imported sugar. The price may be bearish in the medium - to - long term [76][77][78]. Apple - On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures rebounded. The inventory is at a low level in recent years, the new - season apple production and quality have declined. It is expected to be strongly volatile in the medium - to - long term, and long positions can be considered after the correction [80][81][82]. Live Pig - On the previous trading day, live - pig futures declined. The northern and southern pig prices have declined, the supply is abundant, and the consumption change during the Spring Festival needs to be followed. The first - quarter supply may face pressure, and it is advisable to wait and see [83][84]. Egg - On the previous trading day, egg futures rose. The egg production cost has increased, the inventory of laying hens is at a high level, and the supply may be high in January. A positive spread strategy can be considered [85]. Corn and Starch - On the previous trading day, corn and corn - starch futures rose. The northern port inventory is low, the supply pressure needs to be released, the demand for corn starch has improved slightly, and it may follow the corn market [86][87]. Log - On the previous trading day, log futures rose. The supply is abundant, the inventory has different changes, the demand from downstream processing plants has increased. The price is expected to be stable, and the futures may oscillate at the bottom [88][89].

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1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Macro Finance - Index futures: Bullish in the medium to long term, buy on dips [1] - Treasury bonds: Range - bound trading [1] Black Building Materials - Coking coal: Short - term trading [1] - Rebar: Range - bound trading [1] - Glass: Sell on rallies [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Hold long positions cautiously at low levels and conduct rolling operations [1] - Aluminum: Strengthen observation [1] - Nickel: Observe or sell on rallies [1] - Tin: Range - bound trading [1] - Gold: Range - bound trading [1] - Silver: Bullish [1] - Lithium carbonate: Range - bound oscillation [1] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: Adopt a low - buying strategy [1] - Caustic soda: Temporarily observe [1] - Soda ash: Temporarily observe [1] - Styrene: Range - bound trading [1] - Rubber: Range - bound trading [1] - Urea: Range - bound trading [1] - Methanol: Range - bound trading [1] - Polyolefins: Weak and oscillating [1] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: Oscillating adjustment [1] - Apples: Oscillating and bullish [1] - Jujubes: Bounce back from the bottom [1] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: Adopt a strategy of short - selling on rallies in the near - term contracts and be cautiously bullish on the far - term contracts [1] - Eggs: For the 02 contract, breeding enterprises can wait to hedge on rallies [1] - Corn: Be cautious about chasing highs in the short term, and grain - holding entities can hedge on rallies [1] - Soybean meal: Treat the near - term contracts bullishly on dips and the far - term contracts bearishly [1] - Oils: Soybean and palm oils are stronger than rapeseed oil. It is recommended to be bullish on palm oil [1] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides investment ratings and trading strategies for various futures markets, including macro finance, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy and chemicals, cotton and textile industry chain, and agricultural and livestock. It analyzes the market conditions of each sector based on factors such as supply and demand, policy, and international situation, aiming to help investors make informed decisions. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Index futures**: In the medium to long term, considering the expansion of December PMI and the strong expectation of early - stage policy implementation at the beginning of the year, the market is expected to develop further. However, geopolitical and precious metal risks may lead to range - bound trading, which helps digest overbought pressure [5]. - **Treasury bonds**: In the short term, the decline momentum of the bond market has weakened, but in the medium term, it still faces supply pressure and rising inflation expectations. The bond market is expected to move in a range [5]. Black Building Materials - **Coking coal**: The number of coal - hauling vehicles has decreased, the inventory in ports is accumulating, and market demand has not improved significantly. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading [8]. - **Rebar**: The futures price is in a range - bound state. The static valuation is neutral, and the supply - demand pattern has weakened seasonally. The rebound space is limited, and attention should be paid to cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities [8]. - **Glass**: Although the futures price rebounded last week, it is mainly due to short - term factors such as production line shutdowns and inventory reduction. The fundamental pattern has not changed, and it is expected to be weak. It is recommended to sell on rallies [9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price has experienced a "roller - coaster" ride. In the short term, the upward momentum has weakened, but in the long term, there is still a shortage expectation. It is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the operating range may move down. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously at low levels and conduct rolling operations [10]. - **Aluminum**: The over - supply of alumina will continue, and policy expectations are uncertain. It is recommended to strengthen observation. The upward pressure on aluminum prices is large, and the upward space should be viewed cautiously [12]. - **Nickel**: The production of nickel ore in Indonesia is expected to decrease, but the refining nickel is in surplus. It is recommended to observe or sell on rallies [13]. - **Tin**: The supply is tight, and the downstream demand is recovering. It is expected to oscillate bullishly. It is recommended to build long positions on dips [14]. - **Silver**: Due to factors such as the slowdown of the US economy and the increase in industrial demand, the medium - term price center will move up. It is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about opening new positions [16]. - **Gold**: Similar to silver, the medium - term price center will move up. It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading and be cautious about chasing highs [16]. - **Lithium carbonate**: The supply and demand are in a state of balance. It is expected to oscillate in a range, and attention should be paid to the impact of mining permits in Yichun [17]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, and exports may increase. Although the current supply - demand situation is still weak, it is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy and pay attention to policies and cost fluctuations [18]. - **Caustic soda**: There is short - term delivery pressure, and the medium - term may be supported by the improvement of the market atmosphere of related commodities. It is recommended to temporarily observe [20]. - **Styrene**: The price has rebounded, but the valuation is relatively high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and pay attention to cost and supply - demand changes [20]. - **Rubber**: The raw material price is strong, but the inventory in Qingdao Port is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in a range [21]. - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is relatively stable. The price is expected to oscillate in a range, and attention should be paid to the start - up of compound fertilizer plants and the export policy [22]. - **Methanol**: The supply in the mainland is recovering, and the demand for methanol - to - olefins is high, but the traditional downstream demand is weak. Affected by the geopolitical situation, the price in some areas is relatively strong. It is expected to oscillate in a range [24]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply is still abundant, and the demand is in the traditional off - season. The price is expected to be weak and oscillating [25]. - **Soda ash**: The supply is in surplus, but the cost support is strong. It is recommended to temporarily observe [26]. Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation is improving. Although the price has adjusted recently, it is expected to be bullish in the long term. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term [27]. - **Apples**: The market price of apples in storage is stable, and the trading volume is not large. The overall market is expected to be oscillating and bullish [27]. - **Jujubes**: The acquisition of grey jujubes in Xinjiang is coming to an end, and the market is expected to bounce back from the bottom [28]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: In the short term, the supply and demand may turn loose, and the price may decline. In the long term, the price in the second half of the year is expected to be strong, but it should be viewed cautiously. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies in the near - term contracts and be cautiously bullish on the far - term contracts [30]. - **Eggs**: The short - term price is expected to rise seasonally, but the supply is relatively sufficient, which may limit the increase. In the long term, the supply pressure still exists. It is recommended to hedge on rallies for the 02 and 03 contracts after the Spring Festival [33]. - **Corn**: In the short term, the price increase is not strongly driven, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs. In the long term, the demand will gradually recover, but the supply - demand pattern is looser than the previous year, which may limit the increase. It is recommended to hedge on rallies for grain - holding entities [35]. - **Soybean meal**: The short - term M2603 contract is recommended to be bullish on dips, and the far - term 05 contract is recommended to be bearish on rallies [37]. - **Oils**: The performance of soybean and palm oils is stronger than that of rapeseed oil. It is recommended to be bullish on palm oil and conduct rolling position building. Attention should be paid to the results of the China - Canada negotiation from January 14 - 17 [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum is still to be strengthened, with the current national debt yield at a relatively low level. The national debt futures are expected to face certain pressure, and it is advisable to remain cautious [6][7]. - The domestic economic situation is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. However, due to the low - level domestic asset valuations and China's economic resilience, along with the warming market sentiment and inflow of incremental funds, the volatility center of stock index futures is expected to gradually move up, and investors can consider going long at an appropriate time [9][10]. - Given the complex global trade and financial environment, the trend of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold, and central bank gold - buying supports its price. But due to the significant recent rise in precious metals and the heating up of speculative sentiment, market volatility is expected to increase significantly, and investors are advised to exit long positions and wait and see [11][12]. - For steel products like rebar and hot - rolled coil, in the medium - term, the price is dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The demand is weak, but the supply pressure is relieved. The price may continue the weak shock. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of going long on pullbacks and manage positions carefully [13]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is expected to strengthen, and it may continue to be strong in the short - term. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of going long on pullbacks and manage positions carefully [15]. - For coking coal and coke, the futures have rebounded strongly. The cost support for coke is strengthening, and the demand is increasing. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low levels and manage positions carefully [17][18]. - The overall over - supply pressure of ferroalloys continues. But considering the limited downward space of costs and the reduction of short - term supply, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [20]. - The INE crude oil has risen significantly. With geopolitical factors and changes in supply - demand data, the crude oil price is expected to continue rising. Investors can focus on the opportunity of going long on the main crude oil contract [21][22][23]. - The fuel oil price is affected by multiple factors. With the increase in crude oil prices, it is expected to strengthen. Investors can focus on the opportunity of going long on the main fuel oil contract [25][26]. - The demand in different segments of polyolefin products is uneven, showing a more prominent differentiation pattern. Investors can focus on the opportunity of going long [27][28]. - The synthetic rubber market is expected to be mainly in a strong shock, and investors should pay attention to factors such as raw material prices and downstream demand [29][30]. - The natural rubber market is expected to show a wide - range shock, with supply, demand, and inventory factors interacting [31][32]. - The PVC market may be in a strong shock in the short - term due to policy expectations, and the supply - demand situation may improve in the medium - term. However, the uncertainty of the demand side should be vigilant [33][36]. - The urea price is expected to remain in a strong shock in the short - term, driven by export demand and cost support [37][38]. - The PX market may be in a shock adjustment in the short - term, with stable spreads and profits, and support from rising crude oil prices. Investors should be cautious and pay attention to external market fluctuations [39][40]. - The PTA market may be in a shock operation in the short - term. The processing fee has rebounded, and the supply - demand situation has changed little. The long - term supply - demand expectation is good, and investors can consider cautious operation on pullbacks [41]. - The ethylene glycol market is expected to have an increase in supply and pressure on port inventory. It may fluctuate more due to macro - sentiment, and investors are advised to wait and see carefully [42][43]. - The short - fiber market may follow the raw material price in shock operation. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the terminal is digesting raw material inventory. The low inventory may provide bottom support [44]. - The bottle - chip market may follow the cost side in shock operation. There is an expected reduction in supply around the Spring Festival, and the export growth rate is increasing. However, the raw material price is uncertain, and investors should participate cautiously on pullbacks [45][46]. - The soda ash market shows off - season characteristics, but the downward space is limited. It is advisable to operate within a range in the short - term [47]. - The glass market has limited improvement in fundamentals, and the profit is low. However, the main 05 contract corresponds to the traditional real - estate peak season, and investors should pay attention to the short - term driving force from real - estate policies [48][49]. - The caustic soda market shows significant seasonal characteristics, with high production, low demand, high inventory, and low profit. It is expected to be weak in the short - term, and investors can operate within a range [50]. - The pulp market has no substantial improvement in supply - demand fundamentals, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. The futures price may return to the spot price, and investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels [51]. - The lithium carbonate market may be in a strong shock, with a pattern of strong supply and demand, and a reduction in social inventory. External geopolitical factors also support the price [52][53]. - The copper market may be in a high - level shock, with long - term supply concerns supporting the price, but high prices suppressing short - term consumption [54][55]. - The aluminum market may be in a high - level adjustment. The supply is difficult to increase significantly, but high prices suppress demand, and inventory is accumulating [56][58]. - The zinc market may be in a shock adjustment. The supply is tightening, but demand is seasonally weak, and inventory is increasing [59][60]. - The lead market is in a tight - balance pattern with low inventory, continuing the range - bound shock [61][62]. - The tin market is expected to be strong, with tight supply and certain resilience in demand, and a reduction in refined tin inventory [63][64]. - The nickel market is in an oversupply pattern, with high inventory. Although the cost may rise, the real consumption is not optimistic, and investors should pay attention to Indonesian policies [65]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, the supply of soybeans is relatively loose, the cost support is adjusted downward, and the demand is improving. Investors can consider long positions in the low - cost support range for soybean meal and long positions in low - level call options for soybean oil [66][67][68]. - The palm oil market may have an opportunity to go long after a pullback, with increasing export demand and expected weakening production [69][71]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, investors can consider the opportunity to widen the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, and soybean oil and rapeseed oil, depending on the change in import policies [72][73]. - The cotton price is expected to be strong in the short - and long - term, with positive factors from the USDA report, tight supply expectations, and resilient demand. Investors can go long in batches on pullbacks [74][76][77]. - The upward space of the sugar price is limited in the long - term, with increasing domestic supply and strong expected production in India [78][80][81]. - The apple price is expected to be strong in the long - term, with low inventory and reduced production in the new season [82][84][85]. - The pig price is facing supply pressure in the first quarter, and investors are advised to wait and see for changes in market capital structure [86][88]. - For eggs, the supply is relatively high in January, but the supply side is improving marginally. Considering the low valuation of off - season contracts, investors can consider positive spread strategies [89][90]. - The corn and corn starch market: The domestic corn is basically in balance between production and demand, and there may be a peak of grain sales before the Spring Festival. Corn starch may follow the corn market, and investors should wait for the release of supply pressure [91][92][93]. - The log market is expected to be in a bottom - shock pattern, with relatively sufficient supply, shrinking demand, and limited downward space [94][95]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fixed - Income 3.1.1 Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted 86.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 36.1 billion yuan. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the national debt futures are expected to face pressure [5][6]. 3.2 Equity 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The number of new margin trading accounts in 2025 reached a record high. The domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but the market sentiment is warming up. The volatility center of stock index futures is expected to move up [8][9]. 3.3 Commodities 3.3.1 Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The global trade and financial environment is complex, and central bank gold - buying supports the price. However, due to strong speculative sentiment, the market may be volatile [11]. 3.3.2 Base Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: On the previous trading day, they rebounded slightly. The demand is weak, but the supply pressure is relieved. The price may be in a weak shock [13]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, it fluctuated at a high level. The supply - demand pattern is expected to strengthen, and it may continue to be strong in the short - term [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, they rebounded strongly. The cost support for coke is strengthening, and the demand is increasing [18]. - **Ferroalloys**: On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures rose. The overall over - supply pressure continues, but short - term supply may decrease [20]. - **Copper**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper futures rose. Long - term supply concerns support the price, but high prices suppress short - term consumption [54]. - **Aluminum**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum futures rose slightly, while the alumina futures fell. The supply is difficult to increase significantly, but high prices suppress demand, and inventory is accumulating [56]. - **Zinc**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc futures rose. The supply is tightening, but demand is seasonally weak, and inventory is increasing [59]. - **Lead**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead futures fell slightly. The market is in a tight - balance pattern with low inventory [61]. - **Tin**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai tin futures rose sharply. The supply is tight, and demand has certain resilience [63]. - **Nickel**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel futures fell slightly. The market is in an oversupply pattern, with high inventory [65]. 3.3.3 Energy - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, the INE crude oil rose significantly. Geopolitical factors and supply - demand data changes may drive the price up [21]. - **Fuel Oil**: On the previous trading day, it fell significantly. Affected by multiple factors, it is expected to strengthen with the increase in crude oil prices [24][25]. 3.3.4 Chemicals - **Polyolefins**: The market sentiment is boosted, and the demand in different segments is uneven [27]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The futures rose slightly. It is expected to be in a strong shock, and factors such as raw material prices and downstream demand should be noted [29]. - **Natural Rubber**: The futures rose. It is expected to show a wide - range shock, with supply, demand, and inventory factors interacting [31]. - **PVC**: The futures rose. It may be in a strong shock in the short - term, and the supply - demand situation may improve in the medium - term [33]. - **Urea**: The futures rose slightly. It is expected to remain in a strong shock in the short - term, driven by export demand and cost support [37]. - **PX**: The futures rose. It may be in a shock adjustment in the short - term, with support from rising crude oil prices [39]. - **PTA**: The futures rose. It may be in a shock operation in the short - term, with a rebound in processing fees and little change in supply - demand [41]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The futures rose. The supply is expected to increase, and port inventory is under pressure [42]. - **Short - Fiber**: The futures rose slightly. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the terminal is digesting raw material inventory [44]. - **Bottle - Chip**: The futures rose. It may follow the cost side in shock operation, with an expected reduction in supply around the Spring Festival [45]. - **Soda Ash**: The futures rose. It shows off - season characteristics, but the downward space is limited [47]. - **Glass**: The futures fell slightly. The fundamentals have limited improvement, and the profit is low [48]. - **Caustic Soda**: The futures fell. It shows significant seasonal characteristics, with high production, low demand, high inventory, and low profit [50]. - **Pulp**: The futures fell. The supply - demand fundamentals have no substantial improvement, and the inventory is at a relatively high level [51]. 3.3.5 Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The futures rose slightly. The supply of soybeans is relatively loose, the cost support is adjusted downward, and the demand is improving [66]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil rose. It may have an opportunity to go long after a pullback, with increasing export demand and expected weakening production [69]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian rapeseed fell. Investors can consider the opportunity to widen the spread depending on the change in import policies [72]. - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton futures recovered after reaching a low point. The price is expected to be strong in the short - and long - term, with positive factors from the USDA report [74]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures were in a weak shock. The upward space is limited in the long - term, with increasing domestic supply and strong expected production in India [78]. - **Apple**: The domestic apple futures fluctuated. The price is expected to be strong in the long - term, with low inventory and reduced production in the new season [82]. - **Pig**: The national average pig price rose slightly. The supply is under pressure in the first quarter, and investors are advised to wait and see [86]. - **Egg**: The egg price rose. The supply is relatively high in January, but the supply side is improving marginally. Positive spread strategies can be considered [89]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The futures rose. The domestic corn is basically in balance between production and demand, and there may be a peak of grain sales before the Spring Festival [91]. - **Log**: The futures fell slightly. It is expected to be in a bottom - shock pattern, with relatively sufficient supply, shrinking demand, and limited downward space [94].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium - long term, recommended to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal for short - term trading; Rebar for range trading; Glass recommended to sell on rallies [1][7] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper recommended to hold long positions cautiously at low levels and conduct rolling operations; Aluminum advised to strengthen observation; Nickel advised to observe or sell on rallies; Tin for range trading; Gold for range trading; Silver is expected to be strong; Lithium carbonate to trade in a range [1][11] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC with a low - buying strategy; Caustic soda and soda ash to wait and see temporarily; Styrene for range trading; Rubber for range trading; Urea for range trading; Methanol for range trading; Polyolefins to be weak and volatile [1][19] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be strong with fluctuations; Apples are expected to be strong with fluctuations; Jujubes are expected to rebound from the bottom [1][26] - **Agricultural and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs: Near - term contracts to sell on rallies and roll short, far - term contracts to be bullish cautiously; Eggs: Current 02 contract for farmers to wait and sell on rallies for hedging; Corn: Short - term to be cautious of chasing high, grain - holding entities to sell on rallies for hedging; Soybean meal: Near - term contracts to be treated strongly on dips, far - term contracts to be treated weakly; Oils: Soybean and palm oil rallies are limited, be cautious of chasing up, rapeseed oil is weak [1][30] Core Viewpoints The report provides trading guidance for various futures products in different industries, analyzing the market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and influencing factors of each product, and giving corresponding trading strategies based on these analyses. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Although the US December non - farm payrolls were disappointing, the unemployment rate dropped, reducing January rate - cut bets. The January consumer confidence index reached a four - month high. Geopolitical and precious - metal risks increased. Considering the December PMI returning to expansion and strong expectations of early - year policy support, the market may develop further, but the index may trade sideways. It is recommended to be bullish in the medium - long term and buy on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The decline momentum of the bond market has attenuated in the short term, but it still faces supply pressure and rising inflation expectations in the medium term. Whether the bond - market pressure has been fully released remains to be seen. Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [5] 2. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The number of coal - hauling vehicles has decreased, the inventory at ports has accumulated, and market demand has not improved significantly. It is recommended for short - term trading [7] - **Rebar**: The futures price is slightly higher than the electric - furnace off - peak electricity cost and slightly lower than the flat - rate electricity cost. The supply - demand pattern has weakened seasonally. The rebound space is limited, and it is recommended for range trading [7] - **Glass**: The short - term price rise is due to factors such as production line shutdowns and inventory reduction, but the fundamental pattern has not changed. It is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [7][9] 3. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market is in a "strong expectation, weak reality" stage. The short - term upward momentum is exhausted, but the long - term shortage expectation and supporting factors still exist. It is expected to trade in a high - level range with a possible downward shift, and it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously at low levels and conduct rolling operations [11] - **Aluminum**: The weak reality of alumina surplus will continue, and the policy expectation is uncertain. The aluminum price is mainly driven by expectations and capital, and it faces great pressure in January. It is recommended to strengthen observation [13] - **Nickel**: The nickel ore quota is expected to be cut, but the overall nickel market remains in surplus. It is recommended to observe or sell on rallies [14] - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream demand is recovering. It is expected to be strong with fluctuations, and it is recommended for range trading [15] - **Silver**: Due to factors such as the disappointing US non - farm payrolls and interest - rate cut expectations, the price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious of opening new positions [17] - **Gold**: Similar to silver, the price is expected to move up in the medium term. It is recommended for range trading and be cautious of chasing high [17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is strong but may decline slightly. It is expected to trade in a range [18] 4. Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, and the export is expected to maintain a high growth rate. Although the current supply - demand situation is weak, considering valuation and policies, it is recommended to buy at low levels [19] - **Caustic Soda**: The short - term has delivery pressure, and the medium - term may be supported by the market atmosphere of related commodities. However, the rebound space is limited without production cuts. It is recommended to wait and see [21] - **Styrene**: The current valuation is high, and the overseas gap has been filled. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish in the short term and focus on the improvement of cost and supply - demand in the long term [21] - **Rubber**: The supply is increasing during the high - yielding season, but the inventory accumulation may slow down. The downstream demand is weak. It is expected to trade in a range [22] - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, the agricultural and industrial demand has some support, and the inventory is at a low level. It is expected to trade in a range [23] - **Methanol**: The supply in the inland area is recovering, the demand for methanol - to - olefins is stable, and the traditional downstream demand is weak. Affected by geopolitical and port - arrival factors, the price is expected to trade in a range [24] - **Polyolefins**: The supply is still abundant, the demand has entered the off - season, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [24] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is in surplus, but the cost support is strong. It is recommended to wait and see [26] 5. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply and demand are adjusted, and the price has shown high - level fluctuations after a continuous rise. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term and optimistic in the long term [28] - **Apples**: The market of late - Fuji apples in the warehouse is stable, with different trading situations in different regions. The price is expected to be strong with fluctuations [28] - **Jujubes**: The acquisition in Xinjiang is almost finished, and the market trading atmosphere is different in different regions. It is expected to rebound from the bottom [29] 6. Agricultural and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The short - term supply - demand relationship may turn loose, and the price may decline. In the medium - long term, the supply in the first quarter will increase, and the price after the Spring Festival will be under pressure. It is recommended to sell on rallies for near - term contracts and be cautiously bullish for far - term contracts [30][31] - **Eggs**: The short - term price may rise seasonally, but the supply is sufficient, limiting the increase. In the medium - long term, the new - laying pressure is not large, but the supply pressure still exists. It is recommended to wait for the opportunity to sell on rallies for hedging [33][34] - **Corn**: The short - term price is under selling pressure, and the long - term demand will gradually recover, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose year - on - year. It is recommended to be cautious of chasing high in the short term and sell on rallies for hedging [35][36][37] - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term price is expected to be strong with fluctuations, and the long - term price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to be long on dips for the near - term contract and pay attention to the pressure levels [38][39] - **Oils**: The short - term rallies of soybean and palm oil are limited, and rapeseed oil is weak. In the medium - long term, soybean and palm oil may rebound, and rapeseed oil will continue to be weak. It is recommended to be cautious of chasing up for soybean and palm oil and gradually exit long positions for rapeseed oil [39][43][44]

1. Report Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry 2. Core Views - The current macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. The market risk preference has significantly increased, but different sectors have different trends and investment suggestions [6] - The domestic economic situation is stable, but the recovery momentum of the macro - economy is not strong. However, due to low asset valuations and economic resilience, the market sentiment has warmed up, and different futures varieties show various characteristics [8] 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Fixed - Income (Treasury Bonds) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell by 0.07%, 0.02%, 0.03%, and 0.03% respectively [5] - **Policy and Data**: The central bank conducted 34 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on January 9, with a net investment of 34 billion yuan. In December 2025, China's CPI rose by 0.8% year - on - year, and PPI fell by 1.9% year - on - year [5] - **Outlook**: Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and a cautious approach is recommended [6] 3.2 Equity Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The main contracts of CSI 300 (IF), SSE 50 (IH), CSI 500 (IC), and CSI 1000 (IM) rose by 0.71%, 0.62%, 2.99%, and 3.07% respectively [8] - **Outlook**: It is expected that the volatility center of stock index futures will gradually move up, and investors can take long positions at appropriate times [8] 3.3 Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of gold rose by 0.86%, and the main contract of silver rose by 1.52% [10] - **Outlook**: The global trade and financial environment is complex. The "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to gold. However, due to the significant increase in precious metals recently and the rise in speculative sentiment, it is expected that market volatility will significantly increase. It is recommended to close long positions and wait and see [10] 3.4 Steel and Iron Ore 3.4.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures declined slightly. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,980 yuan/ton, and the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in Shanghai were in certain ranges [12] - **Outlook**: In the medium term, rebar prices may continue to be weak and volatile, and hot - rolled coil may follow the same trend. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on dips and pay attention to position management [13] 3.4.2 Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated at high levels. The spot prices of PB powder and Super Special powder were 815 yuan/ton and 705 yuan/ton respectively [15] - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of the iron ore market is expected to strengthen. The futures may continue to be strong in the short term. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on dips and pay attention to position management [15] 3.5 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures declined slightly [17] - **Outlook**: Coking coal production has recovered, and coke procurement prices have been lowered. The rebound of futures shows signs of weakness. Investors can look for opportunities to buy at low levels and pay attention to position management [17][18] 3.6 Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of manganese silicon and silicon iron fell by 0.74% and 1.95% respectively. The spot prices also declined [20] - **Outlook**: Since the fourth quarter of 2025, ferroalloy production has declined, and the overall over - supply pressure continues. After a decline, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [20] 3.7 Energy 3.7.1 Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly due to the possible escalation of the Iranian situation [21] - **Outlook**: The United States is discussing the development strategy of Venezuelan oil, but it has received a cold response. The US President has listened to reports on military strikes against Iran. Crude oil has stabilized around $60 and is expected to rise. Investors can look for long - position opportunities in the main contract [23] 3.7.2 Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil rose significantly and closed above the 5 - day moving average [25] - **Outlook**: The decrease in Singapore fuel oil inventory is positive for prices, while the selling of Asian derivatives on Friday exerts pressure. The rising crude oil prices are expected to drive fuel oil prices up. Investors can look for long - position opportunities in the main contract [26] 3.8 Chemicals 3.8.1 Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: In the Hangzhou PP market, some quotations were raised, and in the Yuyao LLDPE market, some prices increased [28] - **Outlook**: The demand in different sectors of PP products is uneven, and the industry differentiation is more prominent. Investors can look for long - position opportunities [28] 3.8.2 Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber fell by 2.12%, and the mainstream price in Shandong was lowered [30] - **Outlook**: It is expected to be mainly strong and volatile, and attention should be paid to the price trend of butadiene, the recovery of downstream demand, and the implementation of January device maintenance [30] 3.8.3 Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - rubber fell by 0.96% and 1.33% respectively, and the Shanghai spot price was lowered [33] - **Outlook**: It is expected to be in a wide - range volatile state in the short - term [33] 3.8.4 PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC fell by 0.73%, and the spot price was lowered [35] - **Outlook**: Although it is currently in the traditional demand off - season, the policy expectation may lead to a strong and volatile trend in the short - term. In the medium - term, capacity clearance and export growth may improve the supply - demand situation. It is necessary to be vigilant about the uncertainty of the demand side [35] 3.8.5 Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea fell by 0.22%, and the price in Shandong Linyi remained stable [38] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, urea prices will remain volatile and strong, mainly driven by export demand and cost support [38] 3.8.6 PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX2603 fell by 0.06% and rose by 2.5% at night [40] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the PXN spread and short - term profit are stable, and the PX start - up rate remains unchanged. The rising crude oil prices provide support. However, it is necessary to be cautious. PX may be mainly in a volatile adjustment state [40] 3.8.7 PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA2605 fell by 0.23% and rose by 2.28% at night. The spot price in East China was 5,038 yuan/ton [41] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the PTA processing fee has rebounded to a neutral level, and the inventory remains low. The supply - demand situation has changed little. In the long - and medium - term, the supply - demand expectation is good, and the rising crude oil prices provide support [41] 3.8.8 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The report does not provide specific previous - trading - day performance data [43] - **Outlook**: The supply of ethylene glycol is expected to increase, and the port inventory is still under pressure. It is recommended to be cautious and wait and see, and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [43] 3.8.9 Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of short - fiber 2603 fell by 0.25% and rose by 1.48% at night [45] - **Outlook**: The supply of short - fiber is expected to decrease during the Spring Festival. The export growth rate has increased, but the main logic lies in the cost side. It is necessary to be cautious, and it is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate. Investors should be cautious and control risks [45] 3.8.10 Polyester Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: The report does not provide specific previous - trading - day performance data [47] - **Outlook**: The load of bottle chips has slightly decreased recently, and there will be concentrated production cuts around the Spring Festival. The supply is expected to shrink. The export growth rate has increased, but the main logic lies in the cost side. It is necessary to be cautious, and it is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate [47] 3.8.11 Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of 2605 closed at 1,225 yuan/ton, up 0.16% [48] - **Outlook**: The supply remains high, and the inventory reflects that the winter storage rhythm is weaker than in previous years. The current contradiction lies in the game between "strong expectation and weak reality". In the short - term, it is mainly range - bound operation [48] 3.8.12 Glass - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of 2605 closed at 1,125 yuan/ton, down 1.66% [49] - **Outlook**: The glass production capacity is gradually being reduced, but the real - estate new construction and completion areas do not bring significant positive expectations. In the short - term, it is mainly short - selling, but attention should be paid to the short - term driving force brought by real - estate policies [49] 3.8.13 Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of 2603 closed at 2,211 yuan/ton, up 0.59% [51] - **Outlook**: The seasonal characteristics are significant, with high production, low demand, high inventory, and low profit. In the short - term, the price is expected to continue to be weak and stable. However, there is a possibility of price driving due to downstream capacity optimization or supply - side active production cuts. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations and control positions [51] 3.8.14 Pulp - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of 2605 closed at 5,548 yuan/ton, up 0.58% [54] - **Outlook**: The fundamental factors are intertwined. The supply expansion news is still being released, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. The futures price is oscillating at a high level. In the absence of significant driving factors in the future supply - demand, the futures price may return to the spot price. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the range - bound oscillation [54] 3.9 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.9.1 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of lithium carbonate rose by 0.01% to 143,420 yuan/ton [55] - **Outlook**: The cancellation of the export VAT rebate for lithium - battery products may stimulate enterprises to increase exports and inventory. The supply is in a tight balance, and the demand is strong. The social inventory is gradually decreasing. However, the continuous rise may over - draw future expectations, and it is necessary to operate cautiously [55] 3.9.2 Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Lead - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper (presumably a wrong description here, should be related to the respective metals) fluctuated slightly and closed at the 60 - day level [57][58][59][60] - **Outlook**: The report does not provide specific outlooks for these four metals 3.9.3 Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai tin rose by 3.15% to 359,980 yuan/ton [61] - **Outlook**: Due to geopolitical conflicts, the supply is generally tight, and the demand shows certain resilience. The refined tin inventory is decreasing. The tin price has support at the bottom, but there may be a short - term correction [61] 3.9.4 Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai nickel rose by 2.78% to 140,280 yuan/ton [63] - **Outlook**: Due to the anti - globalization trend and geopolitical conflicts, the cost of nickel is expected to rise, but the real - world consumption is still not optimistic, and the primary nickel is still in an oversupply situation. Attention should be paid to relevant Indonesian policies [63] 3.10 Agricultural Products 3.10.1 Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of soybean meal fell by 0.64% to 2,786 yuan/ton, and the main contract of soybean oil rose by 0.33% to 7,994 yuan/ton [64] - **Outlook**: The demand for soybean meal continues to grow moderately, and the demand for soybean oil has slightly improved. There is a certain supply pressure. Investors can look for long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range for soybean meal and long - position opportunities for call options in the low - level range for soybean oil [64] 3.10.2 Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil fell on Friday due to profit - taking but recorded a weekly increase [66] - **Outlook**: It is recommended to consider long - position opportunities after a correction [67] 3.10.3 Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed fell on Friday but recorded a strong weekly increase [68] - **Outlook**: Attention should be paid to the changes in the import trade policy of Canadian rapeseed products. If the import of Canadian rapeseed products increases, investors can consider opportunities to expand the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal and between soybean oil and rapeseed oil in the far - month contracts [68] 3.10.4 Cotton - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic Zheng cotton significantly reduced positions and fell for three consecutive days [70] - **Outlook**: In the long - and medium - term, cotton prices are expected to be strong, but the short - term increase has been too large, and the domestic valuation is relatively high compared with the international market. It is recommended to buy on dips in batches after a correction [70] 3.10.5 Sugar - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Zheng sugar was weakly volatile, and the international raw sugar slightly fell after a bottom - hunting rebound [74] - **Outlook**: Abroad, the focus is on the production in the Northern Hemisphere, especially India's production. Domestically, there is pressure from both domestic new sugar and imported sugar. After a significant rebound in the market, the upward space may be limited [75] 3.10.6 Apples - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures were strongly volatile [78] - **Outlook**: The inventory this year is at a low level in recent years, and the apple production and quality have declined. It is expected that the prices will be strong in the long - and medium - term [78] 3.10.7 Pigs - **Market Performance**: The national average price of live pigs was 12.70 yuan/kg, up 0.12 yuan from the previous day. The main contract fell by 0.08% to 11,770 yuan/ton [82] - **Outlook**: In the first quarter, the supply may still face great pressure. It is recommended to wait and see and wait for changes in the market capital structure [82] 3.10.8 Eggs - **Market Performance**: The average prices in the main production and sales areas remained unchanged. The main contract rose by 0.46% to 3,040 yuan/500 kg [84] - **Outlook**: In January, the egg supply may remain at a relatively high