金 信 期 货 P T A 乙 二 醇 日 刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 6 / 0 3 / 0 3 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD PTA ibaotu.com 日度市场情况 主力合约：3月3日PTA主力期货合约TA605今天上涨3.85%，基差在-65元/吨较上一交易日持平。 基本面：今日PTA华东地区市场价5535元/吨，较前一交易日上涨190元/吨。受伊朗局势的影响，成本端布伦特原油站稳80美元/桶以 上；PTA产能利用率较上一工作日-3.22%至78.88%；工厂库存在5.47天，较上周+1.46天。 主力动向：多头主力减仓 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 走势预期：原油带动能化板块走强，节后PTA装置加速重启，库存开始累积，下游聚酯开工率同步修复，供需双双走强，短期预计 PTA价格跟随成本端震荡。 MEG 主力合约：3月3日乙二醇主力期货合约eg2605上涨5.98%，基差在-37元/吨较上一交易日+11元/吨。 基本面： ...

20260302申万期货品种策略日报-聚烯烃（LL&PP） 免 责 声 明 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 作者具有期货交易咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，本报告清晰准确地 反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响，作者及利益相关方不曾因也将不会因本 报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接获取任何形式的不当利益。 免责声明 本报告的信息均来源于第三方信息提供商或其他已公开信息，本公司对这些信息的准确性、完整性、时效性或可靠性不作任何 保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中 的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述品种的买卖出价，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与本公司 无关。 本报告所涵括的信息仅供交流研讨，投资者应合理合法使用本报告所提供的信 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★☆★ [1] - PTA: ★☆★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ [1] - Propylene: ★★★ [1] 2. Core Views - The futures of olefins and polyolefins had narrow intraday fluctuations. The low - level inventory on the supply side provided support, but the enthusiasm of downstream buyers was limited, and the demand was expected to gradually recover after the holiday [2]. - Geopolitical factors affected the oil market, which in turn influenced the costs of PX and PTA. PTA followed PX, and the supply - demand situation of polyester products such as ethylene glycol, short fiber, and bottle chip had different expectations [3]. - The futures of pure benzene had a narrow - range shock, and the spot trading slowed down. The supply of benzene was expected to increase, and the demand was expected to rise as well. The styrene supply pressure was limited, and the demand needed time to fully recover [5]. - The methanol supply was expected to shrink, and the methanol coastal market might gradually reduce inventory after the Spring Festival. The urea inventory increased seasonally during the holiday, but the demand was expected to rise, and the price might be volatile [6]. - PVC had a narrow - range shock, and its cost support was insufficient. The caustic soda supply decreased during the holiday, and the demand was weak, with cost - based operation expected [7]. - Soda ash was oscillating strongly, with high - level supply and increasing rigid demand. Glass was also oscillating strongly, with improved supply - demand and opportunities for low - level buying [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - The two - olefin futures had narrow intraday fluctuations. The low - level supply - side inventory provided support, but the enthusiasm of downstream buyers was limited. The plastic and polypropylene futures also had narrow fluctuations. After the holiday, the downstream factories had not fully resumed work, the market trading was light, and the supply - side pressure increased due to the high - level inventory during the holiday [2]. Polyester - Geopolitical factors affected the oil market, influencing the costs of PX and PTA. PX was recommended for long - position allocation in the first half of the year, and PTA mainly followed PX. The ethylene glycol supply shrank but the demand was low, with potential for supply - demand improvement in the second quarter. The short - fiber processing margin might improve, and the bottle - chip processing margin was recovering, but there was long - term capacity pressure [3]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - The pure benzene futures had a narrow - range shock, and the spot trading slowed down. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was also expected to rise. The styrene supply pressure was limited, and the demand needed time to fully recover. The price was affected by the oil market [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol supply was expected to shrink due to low overseas device operation and domestic spring maintenance. The methanol coastal market might gradually reduce inventory after the Spring Festival. The urea inventory increased by 40% seasonally during the holiday, but the demand was expected to rise, and the price might be volatile [6]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC had a narrow - range shock, with cost support insufficient due to the decline in calcium carbide price during the holiday. The caustic soda supply decreased during the holiday, and the demand was weak, with cost - based operation expected [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash was oscillating strongly, with high - level supply and increasing rigid demand from photovoltaic glass. In the short - term, it was recommended to wait and see; in the long - term, it should be treated with a high - short strategy. Glass was also oscillating strongly, with improved supply - demand and opportunities for low - level buying, but the upward space depended on the real estate situation [8].

| | 国际大博 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年02月24日 | | 尿素 | 女女女 | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 纯苯 | なな女 | 苯乙烯 | ★☆★ | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 聚丙烯 | なな女 | 塑料 | ☆☆☆ | | | PVC | なな女 | 烧碱 | ☆☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | PX | ★☆☆ | PTA | ★☆★ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 乙二醇 | な女女 | 短纤 | ★☆★ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 玻璃 | ななな | 纯碱 | ☆☆☆ | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 瓶片 | ★☆☆ | 丙烯 | ★☆☆ | | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 Z0023574 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【烯烃-聚烯烃】 两烯期货主力 ...

两烯期货主力合约日内高开上行收涨，盘中下探5日均线获支撑。虽节中短停装置已恢复重启,但考虑到市场供 应面压力可控,下游工厂刚需跟进,且成本面影响较大,价格走势偏强。 塑料和聚丙烯期货主力合约日内上行收涨。油价假期期间上行对聚烯烃盘面形成明显提标，目前市场主要交易 成本端逻辑。从基本面而言,节后归来,下游工厂尚未完全复工,市场交投气氛偏淡,后续随着下游客户返 市，需求端将逐渐恢复。假期内库存累积至高位，供应端压力增加,市场观望情绪浓厚。 | | 国际大博 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年02月24日 | | 尿素 | 女女女 | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 纯苯 | なな女 | 苯乙烯 | ★☆★ | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 聚丙烯 | なな女 | 塑料 | ☆☆☆ | | | PVC | なな女 | 烧碱 | ☆☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | PX | ★☆☆ | PTA | ★☆★ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 乙二醇 | な女女 | 短纤 | ★ ...

金 信 期 货 P T A 乙 二 醇 日 刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 6 / 0 2 / 1 2 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD PTA 主力合约：2月12日PTA主力期货合约TA605今天下跌0.65%，基差在-76元/吨较上一日-2元/吨。 ibaotu.com 日度市场情况 基本面：今日PTA华东地区市场价5200元/吨，较前一交易日上涨20元/吨。成本端布伦特原油再回70美元/桶高位震荡；PTA产能利用 率较上一工作日-2.68%至74.22%；周度PTA工厂库存天数4.01天，较上周+0.27天。 主力动向：多空主力分歧 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 走势预期：终端放假，聚酯减产幅度扩大，订单天数、库存水平显示需求弱化，2月份PTA有累库预期。当前成本端扰动偏大，PX远 端向好预计开工率维持高位，预计短期PTA价格随成本端震荡运行。 MEG 主力合约：2月12日乙二醇主力期货合约eg2605下跌1.14%，基差在-12 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides investment outlooks and strategies for various energy and chemical commodities, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, etc., suggesting investors to pay attention to position control before the Spring Festival due to potential geopolitical disturbances and market uncertainties [2][9][10]. - Different commodities show different trends, such as some being in a range - bound market, some having upward or downward pressure, and some being affected by factors like supply - demand changes, cost fluctuations, and geopolitical situations [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: A pre - holiday range - bound market with support at the bottom. The cost end is worried about potential supply risks due to unstable geopolitical situations, and the valuation is upward - revised. The fundamentals are weak in February, but the unilateral price is supported and runs strongly. Investors should manage positions [9]. - **PTA**: The downside space may be limited, and the monthly spread is bearish. Short positions can be taken when the processing fee is above 450. The terminal demand has different situations, and the polyester start - up rate is expected to change. Multiple sets of device maintenance plans boost the monthly spread. Investors should pay attention to the 5100 yuan/ton support level and manage positions [10]. - **MEG**: The inventory continues to rise, and the supply pressure is still high. The basis and monthly spread are in a reverse - set operation. The ethylene glycol start - up rate remains stable, but the demand side has large - scale shutdowns, resulting in large inventory accumulation pressure in February and difficult inventory digestion after the festival. Investors should manage positions [10]. Rubber - It is in a shock operation. The futures market has changes in closing prices, trading volumes, and positions. The spot market prices of some varieties have increased. The order situation of semi - steel tire and all - steel tire sample enterprises shows different trends [11][13]. Synthetic Rubber - It is in a pre - holiday shock operation. The futures market has changes in closing prices, trading volumes, and positions. The spot market prices of some varieties have increased, and the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber has increased [14][15]. LLDPE - The internal and external markets are close to a standstill, and the funds are risk - averse, showing a shock market. The raw material end crude oil price has fallen and stabilized, the ethylene monomer link is weak, and the downstream demand has different situations. The supply - side maintenance plan has decreased, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the festival and the destocking slope after the festival [17][18]. PP - The C3 raw material performs strongly, but the valuation repair is limited. The cost end of crude oil and propane prices continues to be strong, and the demand side has limited support. The PDH profit is at a low level, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [20][21]. Caustic Soda - The cost is rising, and the valuation is being repaired. The previous short - selling logic of caustic soda profit may be challenged. The demand side is weak, and the supply - side reduction and load - reduction expectations are increasing after March. It is recommended to stop losses on short positions in the 03 contract before the Spring Festival and gradually build long positions in the 05 contract at low levels [25]. Pulp - It is in a shock operation. The market is in a state of waiting and seeing before the festival, with few spot quotations and stagnant downstream procurement. The supply - demand fundamentals have no actual changes during the holiday, and the price is expected to end stably. Attention should be paid to the changes in port inventory and the impact of the macro - market on the pulp market [31][32]. Glass - The original sheet price is stable. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream procurement volume decreases, and the float glass factory has no motivation to adjust prices. The market demand declines, and the overall trading is light [35][36]. Methanol - It is in a shock operation. The spot price shows a regional adjustment situation, and the port inventory has a small increase. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate within a limited range. The macro - level is in the process of negotiation between Iran and the United States, and the fundamental driving force is neutral to downward. The upper and lower price limits are affected by factors such as MTO profit and coal - based cost [41][42]. Urea - It is in a pre - holiday shock with support. The support comes from the improvement of spot transactions driven by pre - holiday order collection and the strong expectation of agricultural spring plowing demand after the festival. The fundamental pressure level of the 05 contract is around 1830 yuan/ton, and the support level is around 1750 - 1760 yuan/ton [45][46]. Styrene - It is in a high - level shock. The absolute price is in a high - level shock with the withdrawal of funds. The styrene profit is at a high level in recent years, and attention should be paid to the restart progress of some devices after the festival and the opportunity of EB profit contraction and PX - EB [47][48]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable, with stable device operation and high supply. The downstream demand procurement is basically completed before the holiday, and the trading is light. The price may remain weakly stable in the short term [50]. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and the fundamental driving force is downward. The futures market has price changes, and the spot market prices of some varieties have changes. The industrial chain start - up rate and shipping volume have different trends [52]. - **Propylene**: The spot price is stable, and the basis converges. The futures market has price changes, and the spot market prices of some varieties have changes [52]. PVC - It is in a weakly shock operation. The domestic spot market trading is dull, and the supply - demand is weak. The industry continues to accumulate inventory, and it is expected to be weakly shocked before the festival. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and the market may still trade delivery pressure and high forward premium [60][61]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session price has risen, and it may turn to a relatively strong trend in the short term. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It mainly follows the upward trend, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the external spot market is still at a low level [64]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It is in a shock market. The futures market has price and position changes. The spot market freight rate is stable before the festival. Geopolitical factors and shipping company policies have an impact on the market. Different contracts have different investment strategies [66][74][75]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Short - Fiber**: It is in a short - term shock market, and investors are advised to reduce long positions when the price is high. The futures price fluctuates upward, the spot price is stable, and the downstream is mostly on holiday [77][78]. - **Bottle Chip**: It is in a short - term shock market, and investors are advised to reduce long positions when the price is high. The upstream polyester raw materials fluctuate upward, and the factory price is partially adjusted upward. The market trading atmosphere is average [77][78]. Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to wait and see before the festival. The spot market price is stable, the scale paper mills are stably producing, some small and medium - sized paper mills are shut down, and the dealer's order - receiving situation is not good [80][81]. Pure Benzene - It is in a strong shock. The futures price has increased, the spot price has increased, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of some devices and the price trend [84][85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a mid - term cautious and bullish rating for PX/PTA/PF/PR, suggesting to control positions before the Spring Festival [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Cost side: The market is still fluctuating around the Iran situation, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation. The PXN has significantly declined, and the floating price of PX remains weak. Although the short - term fundamentals are weak, the mid - term expectation is good [1] - TA: The spot processing fee of PTA has significantly declined, the supply - demand pattern has weakened, and the spot basis is weak. In the short term, the supply - demand situation is accumulating, but in the long - term, the processing fee is expected to improve [1] - Demand: The polyester operating rate is 78.2% (a 6.0% month - on - month decrease). The weaving load has accelerated its decline, and the polyester load has also dropped to a low level. The inventory has started to accumulate. The average monthly load in February is estimated to be 79% [2] - PF: The spot production profit is - 16 yuan/ton (a 42 - yuan/ton month - on - month decrease). The demand before the Spring Festival is weak, and the load is gradually declining [2] - PR: The spot processing fee of polyester bottle chips is 619 yuan/ton (a 42 - yuan/ton month - on - month decrease). The pre - holiday inventory reduction is smooth, and the processing fee has rebounded [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Basis - The report includes figures on TA and PX's main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends, as well as PTA's East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [7][8][13] Upstream Profit and Spread - It shows figures on PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korea's xylene isomerization profit, and South Korea's STDP selective disproportionation profit [15][19] International Spread and Import - Export Profit - Figures on toluene's US - Asia spread, toluene's South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA's export profit are presented [21][23] Upstream PX and PTA Operation - The report provides figures on the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [24][27][29] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures on PTA's weekly social inventory, PX's monthly social inventory, PTA's total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, and various warehouse receipt inventories are included [34][37][38] Downstream Polyester Load - It shows figures on the production and sales of filaments and short - fibers, polyester load, and the inventory days and profits of filament factories, as well as the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [46][48][56] PF Detailed Data - Figures on the load of polyester staple fibers, factory equity inventory days, physical and equity inventories, and the operating rates and profits of pure polyester yarns and polyester - cotton yarns are provided [66][73][77] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures on the load of polyester bottle chips, factory inventory days, spot and export processing fees, export profit, and month - on - month spreads are presented [82][84][90]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene, Polypropylene, Plastic, Benzene, Styrene, PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Bottle Chip, Urea, Caustic Soda, Glass: ☆☆☆, representing a clearer long/short trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Methanol, PVC: なな☆, specific meaning not clearly defined in the given information [1] - Pure Benzene: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for an upward trend, but poor operability on the market [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market conditions of various chemical products are affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, device operation, and seasonal factors, showing different trends and investment opportunities [2][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures: The main contract fluctuated and closed up. The market news guidance was limited, and enterprises mainly maintained stable prices for shipments. The downstream factories entered the market for rigid - demand purchases at low prices, and the overall trading remained stable [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures: The main contracts fluctuated within a narrow range. For polyethylene, the supply - side pressure continued, and the demand - side support weakened. In the short term, the mainstream price might show a weak - stable trend. For polypropylene, the demand for pre - holiday raw material replenishment weakened, and the supply was expected to increase, with a weak downward trend [2] Polyester - PX and PTA: Their prices fluctuated and rebounded. PX had more long - term allocation opportunities in the first half of the year, but currently the demand was weak, and the processing margin declined. PTA was accumulating inventory, and the processing margin was under pressure. The shutdown of a 2.5 - million - ton device in East China would ease the inventory accumulation pressure [3] - Ethylene glycol: The supply shrank, and the price rebounded but remained in a range - bound state. In the second quarter, the supply - demand situation might improve temporarily, but it was still under long - term pressure due to capacity growth [3] - Short fiber: It had a good supply - demand pattern with high load and low inventory. However, downstream orders were weak, and the profit was thin. The processing margin fluctuated, and the absolute price followed the raw material price [3] - Bottle chip: The processing margin was repaired under low load and relatively low inventory, but there was still long - term capacity pressure. It fluctuated with raw materials in the short term, and attention should be paid to the inventory performance after the Spring Festival [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene: The spot price generally rose, and the domestic output continued to increase. The downstream comprehensive capacity utilization rate increased, and the port inventory in East China was basically flat. The supply - demand pattern was expected to improve after the Spring Festival, and the port inventory might decline slowly [5] - Styrene: The futures main contract fluctuated within a narrow range. The domestic supply was expected to increase, and the downstream demand was expected to decline. The fundamentals might weaken in the short term [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol: The import volume increased, the coastal demand was still weak, and the port inventory increased slightly. The domestic production started to increase, and the downstream备货 was active. The fundamentals were still weak, but the short - term market was significantly affected by geopolitical situations. The inventory might decline slowly after the Spring Festival [6] - Urea: The futures and spot prices were stable. Although the daily output was high, the factory orders continued to progress, and the production enterprises' inventory decreased significantly this week. The demand was expected to decline before the Spring Festival, and the market might strengthen after the Spring Festival [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC: It fluctuated within a narrow range. The factory inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased. The industry would enter the seasonal inventory - accumulation stage. The cost support strengthened, and the export situation was good. It was recommended to buy on dips [7] - Caustic soda: It fluctuated during the day. The industry start - up fluctuated slightly and remained at a high level. The inventory decreased significantly but still had pressure. It was expected to operate near the cost [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash: It fluctuated. The inventory continued to rise, and the supply remained at a high level. The downstream procurement sentiment was poor. It was recommended to short on rebounds in the short term and wait and see when the price fell near the cost. The strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash could continue to be held [8] - Glass: It fluctuated. The inventory increased slightly, and there was pressure for inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival. The industry profit was weak, and the production capacity continued to be compressed. It was recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying at a low - valued structural position [8]

| 下面的贡 1111 | | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年02月10日 | | 丙烯 | 文☆☆ 聚丙烯 | | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 塑料 | 女女女 | 纯苯 | 女女女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 苯乙烯 | なな女 | PX | ☆☆☆ | | | PTA | ななな | 乙二醇 | な☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | 短纤 | 女女女 | 瓶片 | ☆☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 甲醇 | ☆☆☆ | 尿素 | ☆☆☆ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | PVC | ☆☆☆ | 烧碱 | ☆☆☆ | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 纯碱 | 文文文 玻璃 | | ☆☆☆ | | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 Z0023574 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 塑料和聚丙烯期货主力 ...