北交所策略专题报告 2026 年 01 月 25 日 农药落后产能出清加速，聚焦合规龙头集中度与盈利修复 北交所研究团队 ——北交所策略专题报告 诸海滨（分析师） zhuhaibin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522080007 2026 年 1 月 8 日，财政部、税务总局联合发布《关于调整光伏等产品出口退税 政策的公告》，公告指出自 2026 年 4 月 1 日起，取消光伏等部分产品的出口退税， 产品清单中包括草铵膦、精草铵膦、敌敌畏和烯禾啶等多款农药原药品种；本次 调整主要针对农药原药及中间体，而农药制剂的出口退税政策并未变动。本次政 策精准指向产能过剩和高毒禁限用品种，旨在整治长期存在的"内卷外化"顽疾， 倒逼产业转向以技术、品牌和全球价值链为核心的高质量发展轨道。2026 年 1 月 1 日开始施行的"一证一品"政策，将推动大量违规低价产品退出市场，行业 集中度将进一步提升，拥有丰富登记证资源的头部企业将获得绝对优势，登记证 从"准入许可证"变为核心战略资源；"一证一品"助力农药价格脱离"成本线"， 价格体系有望向更合理的方向修复。随着农药行业景气回暖，北交所公司颖泰生 物业绩也得到改善 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agricultural chemicals industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the next 6 months [1]. Core Insights - The adjustment of export tax rebate policies, domestic anti-competition measures, and overseas inventory replenishment are expected to restore the agricultural chemicals industry's prosperity [1]. - The cancellation of export tax rebates for certain pesticide products is likely to lead to short-term price increases and long-term elimination of outdated production capacity [4]. - The report highlights that the agricultural chemicals industry is at a turning point, with a recovery in demand supported by seasonal factors and overseas replenishment cycles [4]. Industry Trends - The agricultural chemicals industry has experienced a significant downturn, but recent actions by leading companies to control production capacity are expected to stabilize prices [4]. - The report notes that the capacity utilization rates for major pesticide categories are low, ranging from 30% to 60%, indicating room for recovery [4]. - The upcoming spring farming season in China is anticipated to boost demand for agricultural chemicals, as the peak production period for pesticides occurs from February to May [4]. Related Companies - Key companies mentioned include: - Yangnong Chemical, recognized as a leading player in the agricultural chemicals sector with a comprehensive product range [4]. - Runfeng Co., known for its extensive overseas marketing network and numerous international registrations [4]. - Lier Chemical, a leader in specific pesticide categories [4]. - Jiangshan Chemical and Guoguang Co., both recognized for their strong positions in various pesticide markets [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the impact of the recent cancellation and reduction of export tax rebates on pesticides, particularly focusing on the potential for price increases and improved profitability for leading companies in the pesticide sector [5] - The report anticipates a reversal in the pesticide industry's performance due to rising export costs and the upcoming spring farming season, which is expected to boost demand and prices [5] - The ongoing "anti-involution" trend in the pesticide industry is expected to optimize supply and reshape value, encouraging companies to shift from low-end manufacturing to a focus on technology, branding, and service [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The pesticide industry is experiencing a significant shift due to policy changes, with the cancellation of export tax rebates for various pesticide raw materials and intermediates, including glyphosate and other high-toxicity products [4][5] - China is projected to export 2.05 million tons of pesticides in 2024, with exports accounting for 90% of production [5] Market Dynamics - The domestic pesticide production peak season occurs from February to May, with a significant increase in demand for pesticide formulations during this period [5] - The report notes that the price of 95% glyphosate raw powder has recently increased to 46,000 yuan per ton, indicating a recovery in pricing [11] Key Companies and Recommendations - Recommended stocks include leading pesticide companies such as Yangnong Chemical, Limin Co., and Xingfa Group, which are expected to benefit from the price increases and the integrated "raw material-formulation" model [5] - Beneficiary stocks also include Jiangshan Chemical, Lier Chemical, and others involved in various segments of the pesticide supply chain [5]