Core Viewpoint - The beef market in China has experienced a significant rebound in 2025 after a drastic decline in 2024, with prices rising sharply due to various factors including tax policy changes, domestic supply constraints, and increased consumer demand [1][3][12]. Group 1: Price Trends - In 2024, domestic beef prices fell to unprecedented lows, with some prices dropping to the "20s" per kilogram, while imported frozen beef also saw significant price reductions [2][11]. - As of April 11, 2025, live cattle prices reached 26.22 yuan/kg, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, and beef prices were at 61.39 yuan/kg, showing a year-on-year decrease of 5.9% but a month-on-month increase [4]. - The price of imported beef has also seen volatility, with daily price increases reaching as high as 1500 yuan/ton [8][9]. Group 2: Factors Driving Price Increases - The recent surge in beef prices is attributed to three main factors: changes in tariff policies, a reduction in domestic cattle numbers, and a resurgence in consumer demand [12][13]. - The Chinese government imposed a 125% tariff on all imports from the U.S., leading to a drastic reduction in U.S. beef exports to China, which fell from over 2000 tons per week to less than 54 tons [14][15]. - Domestic cattle inventory has decreased by 8% year-on-year, leading to a significant reduction in beef production capacity [20][22]. Group 3: Consumer Demand and Market Dynamics - The recovery of the restaurant industry, particularly in hotpot and barbecue sectors, has significantly boosted beef demand, with new consumption trends emerging [25][27]. - Despite an increase in per capita beef consumption in China, it remains low compared to countries like Argentina and the U.S., indicating potential for future growth [26]. - The rising prices have put pressure on low-cost dining models, forcing restaurants to adjust their offerings and pricing strategies to maintain profitability [29][30]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Short-term price trends are expected to be upward, but a sustained "explosion" in prices is unlikely due to market adjustments and potential policy changes that could allow for more imports [36][38]. - The beef market may face challenges as consumer behavior shifts in response to rising prices, potentially leading to reduced consumption frequency [39]. - Restaurants are advised to control procurement costs, restructure menu offerings, and enhance customer experience to navigate the current market challenges [40][41][42].