Core Viewpoint - The global beef prices have entered a new prosperity cycle, benefiting beef-exporting countries, particularly New Zealand, as prices rise in key markets like the U.S. and China [1][2]. Group 1: Global Beef Market Dynamics - The global beef price has started an upward trend, expected to continue until 2027, following a decline that began in April 2022 [1]. - By June 2025, global beef prices are projected to reach $6.58 per kilogram, marking a 36.2% increase from previous levels [1]. - The supply of beef is anticipated to decrease over the next two years, contributing to sustained price increases [1][3]. Group 2: Domestic Beef Supply and Pricing - Approximately 73% of China's beef supply comes from domestic production, with a significant reduction in both domestic cattle inventory and imports [2]. - The top 50 beef farming enterprises in China account for only 1.25% of the total cattle inventory, indicating low levels of industry consolidation [2]. - China's beef imports are expected to decline by about 10% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, driven by both policy restrictions and lower domestic prices [2]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Global Beef Supply - Global cattle inventory is projected to decrease, with a decline of 0.3% and 1.8% in 2023 and 2024, respectively, reaching a ten-year low [3]. - South American countries, which supply over 70% of China's beef imports, are experiencing production declines due to adverse weather and market conditions [3]. - The U.S. beef prices have reached historical highs, with a continuous decline in cattle numbers over the past five years, further tightening global supply [3].

Group 1 - The company is a rare quality beef listed entity with stable beef and lamb resources from New Zealand [1] - The company was formerly known as Shanghai Meilin Zhengguanghe Co., Ltd., and is a core meat industry enterprise under Bright Food Group, with various well-known brands [1] - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue increased by 8.46% year-on-year to 6.154 billion yuan, and net profit attributable to the parent company rose by 66.82% to 166 million yuan, benefiting from the rising beef prices [1] Group 2 - The domestic beef cattle breeding industry is undergoing significant capacity reduction, with a projected turning point in supply expected in 2025 [2] - In January 2025, beef cattle slaughter increased by 6% month-on-month and 39% year-on-year, while the breeding stock decreased by 22% year-on-year [2] - The company anticipates a significant rebound in beef prices starting in 2025, with a potential peak price increase of 80% compared to the bottom price at the end of 2024 [2] Group 3 - The company's beef business is expected to benefit from the price reversal, with a cautious estimate of an increase in net profit by approximately 520 million yuan if prices rise by 22% from the bottom [3] - The subsidiary Silver Fern Farms has a production volume of 350,000 to 400,000 tons of beef and lamb annually, accounting for 30% of New Zealand's total output, primarily exporting to China and the U.S. [3] - The company forecasts net profits of 496 million, 601 million, and 705 million yuan for 2025-2027, with annual profit growth rates of 129.7%, 21.1%, and 17.3% respectively [3]

Core Viewpoint - The beef market in China has experienced a significant rebound in 2025 after a drastic decline in 2024, with prices rising sharply due to various factors including tax policy changes, domestic supply constraints, and increased consumer demand [1][3][12]. Group 1: Price Trends - In 2024, domestic beef prices fell to unprecedented lows, with some prices dropping to the "20s" per kilogram, while imported frozen beef also saw significant price reductions [2][11]. - As of April 11, 2025, live cattle prices reached 26.22 yuan/kg, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, and beef prices were at 61.39 yuan/kg, showing a year-on-year decrease of 5.9% but a month-on-month increase [4]. - The price of imported beef has also seen volatility, with daily price increases reaching as high as 1500 yuan/ton [8][9]. Group 2: Factors Driving Price Increases - The recent surge in beef prices is attributed to three main factors: changes in tariff policies, a reduction in domestic cattle numbers, and a resurgence in consumer demand [12][13]. - The Chinese government imposed a 125% tariff on all imports from the U.S., leading to a drastic reduction in U.S. beef exports to China, which fell from over 2000 tons per week to less than 54 tons [14][15]. - Domestic cattle inventory has decreased by 8% year-on-year, leading to a significant reduction in beef production capacity [20][22]. Group 3: Consumer Demand and Market Dynamics - The recovery of the restaurant industry, particularly in hotpot and barbecue sectors, has significantly boosted beef demand, with new consumption trends emerging [25][27]. - Despite an increase in per capita beef consumption in China, it remains low compared to countries like Argentina and the U.S., indicating potential for future growth [26]. - The rising prices have put pressure on low-cost dining models, forcing restaurants to adjust their offerings and pricing strategies to maintain profitability [29][30]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Short-term price trends are expected to be upward, but a sustained "explosion" in prices is unlikely due to market adjustments and potential policy changes that could allow for more imports [36][38]. - The beef market may face challenges as consumer behavior shifts in response to rising prices, potentially leading to reduced consumption frequency [39]. - Restaurants are advised to control procurement costs, restructure menu offerings, and enhance customer experience to navigate the current market challenges [40][41][42].