Core Viewpoint - Global beef prices have reached an all-time high, significantly impacting consumer spending in Chile, where some meat prices have surged nearly 30% [1] Group 1: Price Trends - The global beef price index set by the Food and Agriculture Organization has broken records for two consecutive months [1] - In the UK, beef prices rose nearly 25% year-on-year in July [1] Group 2: Supply Constraints - Global supply is tight due to climate change and diseases, leading to the lowest cattle inventory in decades in the United States [1] - Brazil, a major beef exporter, has also experienced production declines due to climate fluctuations [1] Group 3: Dairy Industry Impact - High profits in the butter and cheese sectors have incentivized ranchers to retain dairy cows for milk production rather than selling them for beef, further constraining beef supply [1]

Group 1 - The import beef market has shown a significant rebound, with mainstream product prices increasing by approximately 200 yuan per ton, indicating a strong recovery trend [1] - The wholesale beef market has also experienced a price increase of 2 yuan over the past 10 days, leading to intense competition among slaughterhouses due to rising demand and tight supply [2] - Regional price disparities are evident, with beef prices in Beijing and Tianjin ranging from 55 to 64 yuan per kilogram, while prices in Shanghai and Jiangsu reach 66 to 110 yuan per kilogram, reflecting varying consumer demand and economic conditions [2] Group 2 - The price of live cattle has reached 12 to 15 yuan per pound (24 to 30 yuan per kilogram) as of August 6, with farmers holding back on sales due to rising prices, further tightening supply [3] - The domestic beef supply gap is widening due to high feed costs, which have increased by 8% year-on-year, leading to reduced cattle farming and lower stock levels [4] - The Ministry of Commerce has initiated an investigation into import beef safeguard measures, raising market expectations of potential import restrictions, prompting traders to stockpile beef [5] Group 3 - The regional market shows significant price differences, with the East China region becoming the core area for price increases, while North China maintains a more stable price trend [6] - The upcoming festive season is expected to boost demand, with chain restaurants increasing high-end beef purchases, contributing to price increases in the high-end market [5] - The outlook for the beef market suggests a search for a new supply-demand balance, with short-term price adjustments expected but limited declines, supported by strong consumer demand [7]

Core Viewpoint - The global beef prices have entered a new prosperity cycle, benefiting beef-exporting countries, particularly New Zealand, as prices rise in key markets like the U.S. and China [1][2]. Group 1: Global Beef Market Dynamics - The global beef price has started an upward trend, expected to continue until 2027, following a decline that began in April 2022 [1]. - By June 2025, global beef prices are projected to reach $6.58 per kilogram, marking a 36.2% increase from previous levels [1]. - The supply of beef is anticipated to decrease over the next two years, contributing to sustained price increases [1][3]. Group 2: Domestic Beef Supply and Pricing - Approximately 73% of China's beef supply comes from domestic production, with a significant reduction in both domestic cattle inventory and imports [2]. - The top 50 beef farming enterprises in China account for only 1.25% of the total cattle inventory, indicating low levels of industry consolidation [2]. - China's beef imports are expected to decline by about 10% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, driven by both policy restrictions and lower domestic prices [2]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Global Beef Supply - Global cattle inventory is projected to decrease, with a decline of 0.3% and 1.8% in 2023 and 2024, respectively, reaching a ten-year low [3]. - South American countries, which supply over 70% of China's beef imports, are experiencing production declines due to adverse weather and market conditions [3]. - The U.S. beef prices have reached historical highs, with a continuous decline in cattle numbers over the past five years, further tightening global supply [3].

Group 1 - The company is a rare quality beef listed entity with stable beef and lamb resources from New Zealand [1] - The company was formerly known as Shanghai Meilin Zhengguanghe Co., Ltd., and is a core meat industry enterprise under Bright Food Group, with various well-known brands [1] - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue increased by 8.46% year-on-year to 6.154 billion yuan, and net profit attributable to the parent company rose by 66.82% to 166 million yuan, benefiting from the rising beef prices [1] Group 2 - The domestic beef cattle breeding industry is undergoing significant capacity reduction, with a projected turning point in supply expected in 2025 [2] - In January 2025, beef cattle slaughter increased by 6% month-on-month and 39% year-on-year, while the breeding stock decreased by 22% year-on-year [2] - The company anticipates a significant rebound in beef prices starting in 2025, with a potential peak price increase of 80% compared to the bottom price at the end of 2024 [2] Group 3 - The company's beef business is expected to benefit from the price reversal, with a cautious estimate of an increase in net profit by approximately 520 million yuan if prices rise by 22% from the bottom [3] - The subsidiary Silver Fern Farms has a production volume of 350,000 to 400,000 tons of beef and lamb annually, accounting for 30% of New Zealand's total output, primarily exporting to China and the U.S. [3] - The company forecasts net profits of 496 million, 601 million, and 705 million yuan for 2025-2027, with annual profit growth rates of 129.7%, 21.1%, and 17.3% respectively [3]

Core Viewpoint - The beef market in China has experienced a significant rebound in 2025 after a drastic decline in 2024, with prices rising sharply due to various factors including tax policy changes, domestic supply constraints, and increased consumer demand [1][3][12]. Group 1: Price Trends - In 2024, domestic beef prices fell to unprecedented lows, with some prices dropping to the "20s" per kilogram, while imported frozen beef also saw significant price reductions [2][11]. - As of April 11, 2025, live cattle prices reached 26.22 yuan/kg, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, and beef prices were at 61.39 yuan/kg, showing a year-on-year decrease of 5.9% but a month-on-month increase [4]. - The price of imported beef has also seen volatility, with daily price increases reaching as high as 1500 yuan/ton [8][9]. Group 2: Factors Driving Price Increases - The recent surge in beef prices is attributed to three main factors: changes in tariff policies, a reduction in domestic cattle numbers, and a resurgence in consumer demand [12][13]. - The Chinese government imposed a 125% tariff on all imports from the U.S., leading to a drastic reduction in U.S. beef exports to China, which fell from over 2000 tons per week to less than 54 tons [14][15]. - Domestic cattle inventory has decreased by 8% year-on-year, leading to a significant reduction in beef production capacity [20][22]. Group 3: Consumer Demand and Market Dynamics - The recovery of the restaurant industry, particularly in hotpot and barbecue sectors, has significantly boosted beef demand, with new consumption trends emerging [25][27]. - Despite an increase in per capita beef consumption in China, it remains low compared to countries like Argentina and the U.S., indicating potential for future growth [26]. - The rising prices have put pressure on low-cost dining models, forcing restaurants to adjust their offerings and pricing strategies to maintain profitability [29][30]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Short-term price trends are expected to be upward, but a sustained "explosion" in prices is unlikely due to market adjustments and potential policy changes that could allow for more imports [36][38]. - The beef market may face challenges as consumer behavior shifts in response to rising prices, potentially leading to reduced consumption frequency [39]. - Restaurants are advised to control procurement costs, restructure menu offerings, and enhance customer experience to navigate the current market challenges [40][41][42].