国金证券发布研报称，现代牧业(01117)作为奶牛养殖龙头公司，原奶价格的上涨将直接带动公司业绩 回暖。此外，由于奶牛的生产特性，公司每年都会销售部分的淘汰奶牛和奶犊牛，这部分收入有望充分 受益牛肉价格上涨，为公司未来业绩增加明显弹性。给予"买入"评级,目标价为2.04港元。 风险提示：数据准确度风险、肉价与奶价不及预期。 肉牛方面 历史高点山东活牛价格超36元/公斤。根据钢联数据，仅2024年行业产能去化幅度超过22%，行业产能 去化幅度巨大。海外方面，全球牛存栏量自2023年开始趋势调减，目前全球牛价持续创历史新高，预计 未来2-3年全球可供出口贸易的牛肉边际减少。目前我国活牛均价约27元/公斤，该行认为在本轮国内肉 牛产能大幅去化叠加海外价格上涨周期带动进口量减少的背景下，本轮国内活牛价格有望创历史新高。 估值和评级 考虑到2026年行业景气度持续上行且有望维持较长时间，该行给予公司2026年10XPE，对应合理价格为 2.04港元/股，给予"买入"评级，而随着行业景气度的上行，公司未来仍有较大成长空间。 国金证券主要观点如下： 原奶方面 目前全国生鲜乳合同价为3.03元/公斤。该行观察到行业中小牧场成 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the increase in raw milk prices will directly boost the performance of Modern Dairy, a leading dairy farming company, and the sales of cull cows and calves will benefit from rising beef prices, providing significant earnings elasticity for the company in the future [1] Group 2 - The current national fresh milk contract price is 3.03 yuan/kg, with a notable increase in the proportion of breeding cows among small and medium-sized farms. The expected supply gap due to a potential shortage of breeding cows by 2026-2027 is highlighted [2] - The domestic milk price is currently lower than international prices, which is expected to suppress import volumes. However, with the gradual establishment of deep processing capacity and improvement in the macro economy, raw milk demand is anticipated to marginally increase, with prices expected to stabilize and rebound by 2026 [2] Group 3 - Historical high prices for live cattle in Shandong have exceeded 36 yuan/kg, with a significant industry capacity reduction of over 22% expected in 2024. Global cattle inventory is trending down since 2023, leading to record high global beef prices and a marginal decrease in exportable beef supply over the next 2-3 years [3] - The current average price of live cattle in China is about 27 yuan/kg, and the combination of domestic capacity reduction and rising overseas prices is expected to drive domestic live cattle prices to historical highs [3] Group 4 - Given the anticipated sustained upturn in industry conditions through 2026, the company is assigned a 10X PE for 2026, corresponding to a target price of 2.04 HKD per share, with a "buy" rating indicating significant growth potential as industry conditions improve [4]

中邮证券发布研报称，优然牧业(09858)受益于奶牛存栏持续去化及牛肉价格显著上涨，淘牛利润有望 显著增厚。同时，乳企布局深加工产能有效调节市场供给，有望进一步加速行业产能出清，共同推动 2026年原奶价格复苏。维持"买入"评级。 中邮证券主要观点如下： 奶牛存栏持续出清，26年原奶价格有望复苏 盈利预测与投资建议 头部乳企纷纷布局相关赛道，君乐宝与西诺迪斯合作推出高端稀奶油，伊利、蒙牛聚焦原制奶酪品类发 力，妙可蓝多（600882）持续扩大原制奶酪产能，光明等企业也通过新品迭代丰富深加工矩阵。行业内 多个深加工项目陆续开建或投产，既延伸了产业链价值，又能灵活承接原奶供给，在存栏去化的同时保 障行业稳定发展，推动奶业向高质量转型。 25年牛肉价格开始反转，公司淘牛利润有望增厚 根据iFind，国内牛肉平均批发价从2月份的57元/kg增长至12月份的66元/kg，增幅达到15.79%。为了优 化种群结构适配长期发展，牧场每年会淘汰部分成母牛，淘汰牛的价格与市场牛肉价格有关。在牛肉价 格上行阶段，牧场的淘牛利润有望跟随上涨，该部分收益主要体现在生物资产公允价值的变动中。未来 随着牛肉价格的进一步上涨，该行预计公司 ...

奶牛存栏持续出清，26年原奶价格有望复苏 智通财经APP获悉，中邮证券发布研报称，优然牧业(09858)受益于奶牛存栏持续去化及牛肉价格显著上 涨，淘牛利润有望显著增厚。同时，乳企布局深加工产能有效调节市场供给，有望进一步加速行业产能 出清，共同推动2026年原奶价格复苏。维持"买入"评级。 中邮证券主要观点如下： 该行据此进行增量利润弹性测算：1）淘汰牛假设：根据荷斯坦，每年期初母牛存栏中将淘汰约28%的 低产或老龄牛，为了维持成母牛比例的稳定，该行预计每年的后备小母牛中有约40%转化为成母牛，其 中有10%的少量淘汰。另外，该行预计每年的新生犊牛中公母的概率相等。该行预计2026-2027年优然 的奶牛存栏量年均提升4%，同时母牛存栏比例保持在52%。该行以成母牛300kg/头、小公牛50kg/头来 测算，据此得出2025-2027年母牛淘汰量分别为3.09/3.20/3.32万吨，小公牛淘汰量分别为0.81/0.84/0.87万 吨。2）利润弹性测算：根据山东省奶业协会，该行预计2024年优然成母牛淘汰价格为15.5元/kg，小公 牛淘汰价格为22元/kg。假设2025/2026/2027年淘牛价格的涨 ...

Group 1 - The core issue is the continuous rise in beef prices in the U.S., with ground beef averaging $6.781 per pound in November, a 2.1% increase from September and a 15% increase year-over-year. Steak prices also saw a slight increase [1][3] - The U.S. cattle inventory is at a historical low, contributing to the record-high beef prices, while demand for products like ground beef remains strong as they are relatively affordable options on meat shelves [1][3] - Despite a decrease in the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 2.7% in November, beef prices continue to surge, indicating a disconnect between general inflation trends and specific commodity prices [1][3] Group 2 - Darden Restaurants' CFO, Raj Vennam, stated that beef prices are nearing historical peaks and are expected to remain high into the next quarter, posing a significant challenge for the company's growth [2][4] - The rise in commodity prices, particularly beef, is identified as a major obstacle for Darden Restaurants, which operates brands like LongHorn Steakhouse and Olive Garden [2][4] Group 3 - The U.S. government is actively addressing the soaring beef prices by investigating price monopolies in the meat processing industry and has eliminated import tariffs on Brazilian beef [1][3] - The USDA has raised its beef import forecast for 2026, predicting a 15% increase in beef imports for the current year due to the removal of tariffs [1][3]

Core Viewpoint - Global beef prices have reached an all-time high, significantly impacting consumer spending in Chile, where some meat prices have surged nearly 30% [1] Group 1: Price Trends - The global beef price index set by the Food and Agriculture Organization has broken records for two consecutive months [1] - In the UK, beef prices rose nearly 25% year-on-year in July [1] Group 2: Supply Constraints - Global supply is tight due to climate change and diseases, leading to the lowest cattle inventory in decades in the United States [1] - Brazil, a major beef exporter, has also experienced production declines due to climate fluctuations [1] Group 3: Dairy Industry Impact - High profits in the butter and cheese sectors have incentivized ranchers to retain dairy cows for milk production rather than selling them for beef, further constraining beef supply [1]

Group 1 - The import beef market has shown a significant rebound, with mainstream product prices increasing by approximately 200 yuan per ton, indicating a strong recovery trend [1] - The wholesale beef market has also experienced a price increase of 2 yuan over the past 10 days, leading to intense competition among slaughterhouses due to rising demand and tight supply [2] - Regional price disparities are evident, with beef prices in Beijing and Tianjin ranging from 55 to 64 yuan per kilogram, while prices in Shanghai and Jiangsu reach 66 to 110 yuan per kilogram, reflecting varying consumer demand and economic conditions [2] Group 2 - The price of live cattle has reached 12 to 15 yuan per pound (24 to 30 yuan per kilogram) as of August 6, with farmers holding back on sales due to rising prices, further tightening supply [3] - The domestic beef supply gap is widening due to high feed costs, which have increased by 8% year-on-year, leading to reduced cattle farming and lower stock levels [4] - The Ministry of Commerce has initiated an investigation into import beef safeguard measures, raising market expectations of potential import restrictions, prompting traders to stockpile beef [5] Group 3 - The regional market shows significant price differences, with the East China region becoming the core area for price increases, while North China maintains a more stable price trend [6] - The upcoming festive season is expected to boost demand, with chain restaurants increasing high-end beef purchases, contributing to price increases in the high-end market [5] - The outlook for the beef market suggests a search for a new supply-demand balance, with short-term price adjustments expected but limited declines, supported by strong consumer demand [7]

Core Viewpoint - The global beef prices have entered a new prosperity cycle, benefiting beef-exporting countries, particularly New Zealand, as prices rise in key markets like the U.S. and China [1][2]. Group 1: Global Beef Market Dynamics - The global beef price has started an upward trend, expected to continue until 2027, following a decline that began in April 2022 [1]. - By June 2025, global beef prices are projected to reach $6.58 per kilogram, marking a 36.2% increase from previous levels [1]. - The supply of beef is anticipated to decrease over the next two years, contributing to sustained price increases [1][3]. Group 2: Domestic Beef Supply and Pricing - Approximately 73% of China's beef supply comes from domestic production, with a significant reduction in both domestic cattle inventory and imports [2]. - The top 50 beef farming enterprises in China account for only 1.25% of the total cattle inventory, indicating low levels of industry consolidation [2]. - China's beef imports are expected to decline by about 10% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, driven by both policy restrictions and lower domestic prices [2]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Global Beef Supply - Global cattle inventory is projected to decrease, with a decline of 0.3% and 1.8% in 2023 and 2024, respectively, reaching a ten-year low [3]. - South American countries, which supply over 70% of China's beef imports, are experiencing production declines due to adverse weather and market conditions [3]. - The U.S. beef prices have reached historical highs, with a continuous decline in cattle numbers over the past five years, further tightening global supply [3].

Group 1 - The company is a rare quality beef listed entity with stable beef and lamb resources from New Zealand [1] - The company was formerly known as Shanghai Meilin Zhengguanghe Co., Ltd., and is a core meat industry enterprise under Bright Food Group, with various well-known brands [1] - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue increased by 8.46% year-on-year to 6.154 billion yuan, and net profit attributable to the parent company rose by 66.82% to 166 million yuan, benefiting from the rising beef prices [1] Group 2 - The domestic beef cattle breeding industry is undergoing significant capacity reduction, with a projected turning point in supply expected in 2025 [2] - In January 2025, beef cattle slaughter increased by 6% month-on-month and 39% year-on-year, while the breeding stock decreased by 22% year-on-year [2] - The company anticipates a significant rebound in beef prices starting in 2025, with a potential peak price increase of 80% compared to the bottom price at the end of 2024 [2] Group 3 - The company's beef business is expected to benefit from the price reversal, with a cautious estimate of an increase in net profit by approximately 520 million yuan if prices rise by 22% from the bottom [3] - The subsidiary Silver Fern Farms has a production volume of 350,000 to 400,000 tons of beef and lamb annually, accounting for 30% of New Zealand's total output, primarily exporting to China and the U.S. [3] - The company forecasts net profits of 496 million, 601 million, and 705 million yuan for 2025-2027, with annual profit growth rates of 129.7%, 21.1%, and 17.3% respectively [3]

Core Viewpoint - The beef market in China has experienced a significant rebound in 2025 after a drastic decline in 2024, with prices rising sharply due to various factors including tax policy changes, domestic supply constraints, and increased consumer demand [1][3][12]. Group 1: Price Trends - In 2024, domestic beef prices fell to unprecedented lows, with some prices dropping to the "20s" per kilogram, while imported frozen beef also saw significant price reductions [2][11]. - As of April 11, 2025, live cattle prices reached 26.22 yuan/kg, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, and beef prices were at 61.39 yuan/kg, showing a year-on-year decrease of 5.9% but a month-on-month increase [4]. - The price of imported beef has also seen volatility, with daily price increases reaching as high as 1500 yuan/ton [8][9]. Group 2: Factors Driving Price Increases - The recent surge in beef prices is attributed to three main factors: changes in tariff policies, a reduction in domestic cattle numbers, and a resurgence in consumer demand [12][13]. - The Chinese government imposed a 125% tariff on all imports from the U.S., leading to a drastic reduction in U.S. beef exports to China, which fell from over 2000 tons per week to less than 54 tons [14][15]. - Domestic cattle inventory has decreased by 8% year-on-year, leading to a significant reduction in beef production capacity [20][22]. Group 3: Consumer Demand and Market Dynamics - The recovery of the restaurant industry, particularly in hotpot and barbecue sectors, has significantly boosted beef demand, with new consumption trends emerging [25][27]. - Despite an increase in per capita beef consumption in China, it remains low compared to countries like Argentina and the U.S., indicating potential for future growth [26]. - The rising prices have put pressure on low-cost dining models, forcing restaurants to adjust their offerings and pricing strategies to maintain profitability [29][30]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Short-term price trends are expected to be upward, but a sustained "explosion" in prices is unlikely due to market adjustments and potential policy changes that could allow for more imports [36][38]. - The beef market may face challenges as consumer behavior shifts in response to rising prices, potentially leading to reduced consumption frequency [39]. - Restaurants are advised to control procurement costs, restructure menu offerings, and enhance customer experience to navigate the current market challenges [40][41][42].