Core Viewpoint - The company is focusing on the verification progress of its ArF immersion high-capacity coating and developing machine, actively promoting its introduction and validation across different clients [1] Investment Highlights - The company's EPS forecast for 2025-2027 has been updated to 1.35, 2.14, and 3.36 yuan, reflecting growth rates of 34.08%, 58.60%, and 56.93% respectively. The 2025E and 2026E forecasts have been slightly downgraded, while 2027E is a new addition. Given the low domestic localization rate of front-end coating and developing equipment, achieving breakthroughs will create significant competitive barriers, leading to a projected PE valuation of 80 times for 2025, corresponding to a target price of 108.00 yuan [2] Operating Performance Pressure - The company anticipates a revenue of 1.753 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.13%, with a net profit of 73.31 million yuan, down 60.83% year-on-year. The decline in net profit is primarily due to increased R&D investment, with R&D expenses expected to reach 297 million yuan in 2024, a 49.93% increase. The company is currently in a critical transition period for upgrading coating and developing equipment and validating new products, resulting in significant performance pressure [3] Product Development Progress - The main products are advancing smoothly at client sites. The high-end offline machines, including SOC, SOD, and NTD, have achieved rapid breakthroughs, and I-Line and KrF machines are showing good production data at multiple client sites. The introduction and validation of the ArF immersion high-capacity coating and developing machine are actively being promoted across different clients [3] - New products are steadily progressing and are expected to contribute to new growth points for the company. The front-end chemical cleaning machine launched in March 2024 has passed client process validation and received orders from several major domestic clients. The temporary bonding and debonding machines have successfully passed validation from multiple clients and are entering a gradual ramp-up phase, with nearly 20 orders in hand. The new Frame cleaning equipment for 2.5D/3D advanced packaging has also passed client validation and is entering small-batch sales [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported mixed financial results for 2024, with revenue growth but a significant decline in net profit, primarily due to increased R&D expenses and government subsidies impacting profitability [1][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.754 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.13%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 203 million yuan, down 19% year-on-year [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 649 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 58%, with net profit reaching a record high of 95 million yuan, up 213% year-on-year [1]. - For Q1 2025, revenue was 275 million yuan, a 13% increase year-on-year, but net profit dropped to 5 million yuan, down 71% year-on-year [2]. R&D Investment - The company significantly increased R&D investment in 2024, totaling 297 million yuan, a 50% year-on-year increase, with an R&D expense ratio of 16.9% [3]. - The number of employees grew to 1,366, a 22% increase year-on-year, contributing to rising personnel costs [3]. Product Performance - The company's product segments showed varied performance, with the Track equipment generating 1.05 billion yuan in revenue, a slight decline of 1.52% year-on-year, but with a gross margin of 34.81% [4]. - The bonding machine segment saw revenue growth of 13.75%, with a high gross margin of 78.60%, indicating strong performance from new products [4]. Order Growth and New Products - New orders signed in 2024 reached approximately 2.4 billion yuan, a 10% year-on-year increase, indicating robust demand [5]. - The introduction of new products, such as the chemical cleaning machine and bonding machine, is expected to enhance market share and revenue potential [6][7]. Strategic Partnerships - The company is in discussions with Northern Huachuang to transfer control, which could lead to synergies in product offerings and accelerate domestic semiconductor equipment replacement [8]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 2.053 billion, 2.701 billion, and 3.622 billion yuan, with net profits expected to grow significantly during this period [8].

点击注册小程序 点评： 2025年3月10日，北方华创与先进制造签署了股份转让协议，北方华创拟受让先进制造持有的公司9.49%股 份，合计19,064,915股，截至2025年4月1日，该协议受让尚在推进过程中。如前所述，北方华创协议受让 中科天盛所持公司股份也尚在推进过程中。如两次协议受让均过户完成，则北方华创对公司的持股比例将 达到17.90%，北方华创将成为公司第一大股东，北方华创计划通过前述协议受让和改组公司董事会取得公 司控制权。 2024年，芯源微前道晶圆加工领域产品收入保持增长，其中，在前道涂胶显影领域，公司围绕下游核心客 户需求，持续开展机台导入与高端工艺验证，新一代超高产能机型研发正在稳步推进中；在前道清洗领 域，公司优势产品前道物理清洗机继续保持国内龙头地位，公司战略新产品前道化学清洗机客户端导入顺 利，高温硫酸清洗机台顺利通过国内某重要客户工艺验证，机台现场表现优异，有望成为公司新的业务名 片及业绩增长点。 此次股份转让，芯源微有望充分发挥和北方华创的协同效应，在研发和销售上更进一步，未来业绩有望更 快增长。 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写， ...