光刻胶：国产化攻坚核心区。高端KrF/ArF光刻胶国产化率仍处个位数，日本JSR、东京应化、信越化 学等占据主导。面板光刻胶部分产品同样由日企把控。禁令背景下，下游制造厂给予国产厂商的验证窗 口与意愿或加强。 开源证券近日发布半导体行业点评报告：外部风险强化自主诉求，内部扩产奠定成长基础，半导体材 料/设备自主可控或加速。全球地缘政治风险加剧，对外技术依赖环节的"断供"隐忧或将被市场重新定 价。短期催化：供应链安全焦虑加速下游制造厂导入国产方案的意愿与紧迫性，尤其对"卡脖子"环节。 长期基本面：近期长鑫IPO披露拟融资约300亿元、中芯南方工厂增资超70亿美金、大基金增持中芯国 际、以及各大Fab厂对成熟逻辑权益的整合，代表资本层面的布局已全面加速。 以下为研究报告摘要： 事件：据商务部1月6日公告，禁止所有两用物项对日本军事用户、军事用途，以及一切有助于提升日本 军事实力的其他最终用户用途出口 我们认为：外部风险强化自主诉求，内部扩产奠定成长基础，半导体材料/设备自主可控或加速。全球 地缘政治风险加剧，对外技术依赖环节的"断供"隐忧或将被市场重新定价。我们认为，半导体材料/设 备的投资逻辑已形成"双轮驱动" ...

事件 智通财经APP获悉，开源证券发布研报称，外部风险强化自主诉求，内部扩产奠定成长基础，半导体材 料/设备自主可控或加速。全球地缘政治风险加剧，对外技术依赖环节的"断供"隐忧或将被市场重新定 价。该行认为半导体材料/设备的投资逻辑已形成"双轮驱动"。 开源证券主要观点如下： 受益标的：材料：彤程新材/晶瑞电材/南大光电/容大感光/恒坤新材/艾森股份（光刻胶）、鼎龙股份 （光刻胶+抛光垫）、安集科技（抛光液+湿化学品）、上海新阳（光刻胶+湿化学品）、雅克科技（面 板光刻胶+前驱体）、广钢气体/华特气体/金宏气体（电子气体）、路维光电/龙图光罩/清溢光电（掩膜 版）。设备：长川科技/华峰测控/精智达（测试机）、芯源微/盛美上海（涂胶显影设备）。 涂胶显影设备、后道测试设备及电子束检测设备有望受益 涂胶显影：2020年东京电子在涂胶显影领域市占率高达90%，据北方华创2025年答投资者问，国内市场 规模达140亿元，当前国产化率仍较低。涂胶显影设备与曝光设备密切配合，性能直接影响光刻产出的 良率与精密度，当前国内领军企业已实现i线、KrF、ArF等环节的覆盖，禁令背景下，涂胶显影设备供 应链安全重要性提升，国产替 ...

1月7日，半导体产业链全线大涨，芯源微20cm涨停并创历史新高，报190.79元/股，总市值升至384亿 元。除芯源微外，中微公司、北方华创、拓荆科技等亦纷纷创历史新高。 此外，1月6日中证指数公司发布公告，决定将芯源微调入中证500指数于1月9日收市后生效。 资料显示，芯源微主要从事半导体专用设备的研发、生产和销售，公司业务聚焦于前道涂胶显影、前道 单片清洗、后道先进封装三大板块，是国内少数能提供前道量产型涂胶显影设备的厂商。 据了解，涂胶显影设备是集成电路在光刻过程中的关键设备。目前芯源微产品覆盖offline至ArF浸没式 全系列，并深度绑定头部晶圆厂。 业绩层面看，因部分订单验收延缓以及研发投入较大，导致芯源微2025年前三季度业绩短期承压，实现 营业收入为9.90亿元，同比下降10.35%；归母净利润亏损1004.92万元，同比转亏。 不过，芯源微有充足的在手订单。数据显示，截至2025年三季度末，公司存货为25.26 亿元，同比增加 34.7%；合同负债为8.03亿元，同比增加70.9%。 本轮板块大涨的关键推手，或是存储芯片持续涨价行情。近日，三星电子与SK海力士宣布新一轮涨价 计划，将在今年第 ...

格隆汇12月29日丨北方华创在互动平台回应称，随着存储市场需求增长及HBM技术加速渗透，相关工 艺设备需求持续提升。公司在存储芯片制造领域可提供刻蚀、薄膜沉积、清洗、热处理、离子注入、涂 胶显影等核心工艺设备，覆盖DRAM、NAND等主流存储品类；在HBM领域，可提供TSV刻蚀、去 胶、湿法清洗、ALD、PVD、电镀、退火等多款核心设备及工艺解决方案。目前，公司相关产品已批 量交付主流存储及HBM客户，多款产品成为客户生产线的量产基线机台。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the mechanical equipment industry [1] Core Insights - The humanoid robot company Galaxy General has completed a new round of financing of $300 million, achieving a valuation of $3 billion, making it the highest-valued company in China's humanoid robot sector [2] - The semiconductor equipment sector is seeing consolidation, with companies like Zhongwei planning acquisitions to enhance their product offerings [3] - The liquid cooling industry is experiencing growth, with major players like Vertiv expanding their manufacturing capabilities, indicating strong confidence in the sector's long-term potential [4] - PCB equipment and consumables are set for expansion, with companies like Pengding Holdings planning significant investments to meet the rising demand driven by AI applications [5] Summary by Sections Humanoid Robots - Galaxy General's recent financing round has positioned it as a leader in the humanoid robot market, with significant partnerships in industrial manufacturing and retail sectors [2] Semiconductor Equipment - Zhongwei's acquisition of Hangzhou Zhonggui aims to enhance its CMP equipment offerings, complementing its existing dry process equipment [3] - Other leading companies are also pursuing acquisitions to strengthen their platforms, indicating a trend towards consolidation in the semiconductor equipment market [3] Liquid Cooling - Vertiv's new R&D and manufacturing base in Suzhou reflects the industry's confidence in liquid cooling technology, which is becoming essential for data centers due to increasing power densities [4] - The report highlights the potential for significant market growth, estimating the global server liquid cooling market could reach $80 billion by 2026 [19] PCB Equipment & Consumables - Pengding Holdings is set to invest 4.3 billion yuan in Thailand to expand its production capabilities for AI-related PCB products, with expected order growth in 2026 [5] - The report emphasizes the increasing demand for high-end PCB drilling tools, driven by the rise of AI servers and advanced PCB designs [32]

中邮证券研报指出，北方华创作为国内半导体设备平台型领军厂商，产品覆盖刻蚀、薄膜沉积、热处 理、清洗、涂胶显影、离子注入等多个核心工艺环节，工艺覆盖度完善，国内份额持续提升，将持续受 益于下游扩产与国产替代进程。11月22日，公司披露2025年股票期权激励计划（草案），有助于促进公 司中长期激励机制的健全与完善，提升人才吸引力与团队稳定性。公司拟向激励对象授予10,465,975份 股票期权，约占本激励计划草案公告时公司股本总额的1.4446%，激励对象共计2,306人，其中，公司董 事、高级管理人员7人，核心技术人才及管理骨干2,299人，假设公司2025年11月末授予股票期权，2025 年-2030年期权成本需摊销的总费用约21亿。维持"买入"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Kema Technology (301611.SZ) is actively involved in the advanced ceramic materials sector, providing components for critical equipment in the semiconductor industry, including lithography machines and coating development equipment [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Kema Technology specializes in advanced ceramic materials, particularly in load-bearing fixed components and claw pads [1] - The company has established relationships with major clients such as Shanghai Micro Electronics, Keyi Hongyuan, and Xinyuan Micro [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][4] Core Insights - The company has achieved rapid growth in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 32.97% to reach 27.301 billion yuan and a net profit of 5.130 billion yuan, reflecting a 14.83% increase [4] - The company benefits significantly from the domestic semiconductor equipment market, with a comprehensive product coverage in key processes such as etching and thin film deposition [4] - The company has increased its inventory by 30.01% year-on-year to 30.199 billion yuan, positioning itself to meet strong market demand and ensure stable product delivery [4] - R&D expenses have risen by 48.40% year-on-year to 3.285 billion yuan, indicating a commitment to innovation and enhancing market competitiveness [4] - The company is expected to benefit from the expansion of downstream wafer fabrication capacity and the trend of domestic substitution, with projected revenues of 39.283 billion yuan, 49.665 billion yuan, and 61.156 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 11.160 billion yuan, a 38.31% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.922 billion yuan, up 14.60% year-on-year [4] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 40.31%, a decrease of 1.95 percentage points year-on-year [4] Market Position - The company has expanded its market share due to the high demand in the semiconductor industry and its competitive product offerings [4] - The company has made significant advancements in technology, particularly in high-end semiconductor equipment, solidifying its leading position in the market [4] Future Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 39.283 billion yuan for 2025, 49.665 billion yuan for 2026, and 61.156 billion yuan for 2027, with corresponding net profits of 7.530 billion yuan, 9.672 billion yuan, and 11.860 billion yuan [5][6] - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 39, 30, and 24 times respectively [4][5]

Core Insights - The company reported a robust growth in performance, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 29.4% for Q1-Q3 2025, reaching 5.15 billion yuan, driven by strong demand in the Chinese semiconductor equipment market and successful expansion into new customers and markets [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period rose by 67.0% to 1.27 billion yuan, while the non-recurring net profit increased by 49.5% to 1.11 billion yuan [1] - The company maintained high R&D investment, with R&D expenses amounting to 870 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.9% [2] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.88 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.0% [1] - The net profit for Q3 was 570 million yuan, up 81.0% year-on-year and 26.9% quarter-on-quarter, while the non-recurring net profit was 430 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.4% [1] - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 49.5%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 24.6%, up 5.5 percentage points year-on-year [2] Strategic Developments - The company is focusing on a platform-based approach in cleaning, electroplating, and coating development equipment, which is expected to benefit from the new cleaning and electroplating demands in HBM [3] - The company has achieved over 30% market share in domestic single wafer cleaning equipment, with its cleaning technologies reaching international leading levels [3] - The company has delivered over 1,500 electroplating chambers, with its 3D stacking electroplating equipment capable of handling high aspect ratio copper plating for advanced semiconductor structures [3] Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 1.82 billion, 2.24 billion, and 2.55 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting an increase from previous estimates [4] - The current stock price corresponds to dynamic P/E ratios of 46, 37, and 33 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, maintaining an "overweight" rating [4]

Group 1 - TSMC plans to implement a four-year price increase for advanced processes below 5nm starting January 2026, with an average increase of approximately 3%-5% [1] - The price increase will apply to 2nm, 3nm, 4nm, and 5nm technology nodes, reflecting rising production costs and capital expenditures [1] - TrendForce estimates that the global foundry capacity for mature processes (28nm and above) and advanced processes (16nm and below) will maintain a ratio of approximately 7:3 from 2023 to 2027 [1] Group 2 - Demand for semiconductor equipment for processes of 28nm and above is expected to grow, particularly in mainland China, which is actively promoting local production [2] - Taiwan is expected to maintain its leading position in the global foundry market despite increasing competition [2] - The demand for etching, thin film deposition, bonding, and coating equipment will increase as the industry shifts towards more advanced processes [2] Group 3 - SMIC is one of the few foundries in mainland China capable of mass production at advanced nodes, focusing on 7nm, 5nm, and 3nm processes [3] - Zhongwei Company leads in etching equipment, covering processes from 65nm to 5nm and aims to capture 50%-60% of the high-end semiconductor equipment market in the next 5-10 years [3]