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特锐德:如何展望特来电运营的盈利弹性?-20250412
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-04-12 10:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 32.5 CNY, based on a current price of 22.88 CNY [4]. Core Insights - The charging service fee is expected to increase slightly after 2025 due to a predicted rise in charging pile usage rates and service fees, driven by a slowdown in new charging pile construction compared to the growth in electric vehicle ownership [1][2]. - The company is positioned as a preferred charging operation service brand for local state-owned enterprises, with over 270 joint ventures established, enhancing its market share in the domestic charging operation market [2]. - The transition from heavy asset construction to light asset operation is anticipated to improve profitability, with projected gross margins reaching 70% [2]. - The company is expected to achieve a profit of 4.44 billion CNY in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of over 50% in profits over the next three years [3]. Industry Overview - The demand for charging infrastructure is expected to grow steadily, with the number of new energy vehicles (NEVs) projected to reach 31.4 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 53.85% [11]. - Public charging pile usage is expected to increase, with a corresponding rise in charging service fees due to a supply-demand imbalance [31][32]. - The market for charging piles is highly concentrated, with the top five operators holding nearly 65% of the market share, indicating strong competitive dynamics [21][24]. Financial Data and Projections - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 14.6 billion CNY in 2023 to 24.8 billion CNY by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 18.56% [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 491.15 million CNY in 2023 to 1.72 billion CNY in 2026, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [3]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.47 CNY in 2023 to 1.63 CNY in 2026, indicating strong profitability growth [3].