Report Information - Report Title: Corn Daily Report [1] - Report Date: July 11, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall processing demand for corn is unlikely to increase, while wheat and imported corn continue to supplement the market supply, causing the market sentiment to turn slightly pessimistic and the price to decline slightly. However, the increasing storage and capital costs may limit the decline. The 2509 futures contract is mainly in a volatile correction following the spot market, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather in corn - producing areas on new crops [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 10th, the corn main contract 2509 opened lower and fluctuated higher, closing with a negative line at the end of the session. The highest price was 2325 yuan/ton, the lowest was 2313 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan compared to the previous trading day. The total index open interest increased by 21,480 lots to 1,626,312 lots [7]. - **Spot Market**: On the 10th, the price of second - class corn at Jinzhou Port was 2310 - 2340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The port inventory is continuously decreasing but remains at a high level compared to the same period. Wheat still has an advantage in feed substitution for corn, and the substitution volume continues to increase. Imported corn is continuously auctioned, increasing market supply. Barley and other alternative imported grains show price advantages, and future imports may increase. Feed demand is improving, but feed enterprises have relatively sufficient inventories, are not active in spot procurement, and turn to new wheat procurement, mainly conducting on - demand procurement and rolling replenishment. Deep - processing enterprises are continuously losing money, are entering the seasonal off - season, with a declining operating rate, and their inventories are relatively high and stable, mainly conducting rigid - demand procurement [7]. 2. Industry News - **US Corn Situation**: As of July 6, 74% of the corn in the United States was rated good to excellent, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous week, reaching the highest level for the same period since 2018. As of the week ending July 3, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 1,491,062 tons, compared with the revised 1,380,943 tons of the previous week and 1,023,905 tons of the same period last year. As of July 2, the average price of distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS) in 34 US regions was 148 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars from a week ago [8][10]. - **Other News**: India is seeking a trade agreement with the United States and may allow the import of some processed genetically modified agricultural products. The corn good - to - excellent rate in France is 78%, lower than 81% a week ago and 82% of the same period last year. Russia has lowered the wheat export tariff to zero and raised the corn export tariff by 3% from July 9 to 15, 2025. As of July 7, 2025/26, Ukraine's grain export volume was 77,000 tons, lower than 1,131,000 tons of the same period last year [10]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including corn futures and spot prices, port inventories, wheat prices, wheat - corn price spreads, corn imports, and feed production, with data sources from Wind and the Research Center of CCB Futures [7][9][11]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic corn prices have shown a strong upward trend since late May, driven by reduced imports and weather concerns affecting new season yields [1][2][12] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The significant decline in imports of corn and its substitutes (wheat, barley, sorghum) has altered the domestic supply structure, shifting from a previously loose supply-demand balance to a tighter one [2][3] - From January to April, China's total grain and grain powder imports fell to 7.81 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 68.8%, with corn imports dropping by 95.1% to only 440,000 tons [2] - The reduction in imports is attributed to changes in agricultural import policies, international trade relations, and adjustments in domestic crop planting structures [2][3] Group 2: Price Support Factors - The implementation of the minimum purchase price for wheat in Henan has provided support for corn prices, leading to increased buying and stockpiling behavior among traders [6][7] - The current high levels of pig inventory and the initiation of state pork purchases are expected to sustain long-term demand for corn [1][11] Group 3: Weather and Crop Conditions - Despite dry weather conditions in key corn-producing regions, the overall planting progress for summer grains is ahead of previous years, with corn planting continuing smoothly [8][9] - The ongoing drought has raised concerns about the quality and yield of the new corn season, particularly in areas with poor irrigation infrastructure [8][10] Group 4: Future Outlook - Market participants anticipate a gradual increase in domestic corn prices, driven by ongoing buying enthusiasm for both corn and wheat [12] - However, the potential for significant price increases may be limited due to substantial existing inventories of domestic and imported corn, as well as abundant stocks of domestic rice [12]