Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The core contradiction in the corn market lies in the game between tight supply in the producing areas and weak downstream demand. Policy auctions and import substitution continue to cool market sentiment, and the short - term corn price gradually moves down under the interweaving of multiple factors [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Current Market Price Situation - This week, the national corn price maintained a narrow - range fluctuation. In the Northeast, the grass - roots grain sales are nearly over, and the grain rights have transferred to traders. In North China, the arrivals at deep - processing enterprises are at a high level, inventories are accumulating, and some enterprises have cut prices. In the southern sales areas, the prices are stable but weak due to the decline in northern port prices and the suppression of substitutes [5]. Situation of Grain Sales - The domestic corn - producing areas are in a pattern of continuous tight supply and intensified market game. In the Northeast main - producing areas, grass - roots grain sales are nearing the end, and the grain source is shifting from farmers to the trading link. The overall grain - selling progress in the Northeast is 82%, 3 percentage points higher than last week; the overall grain - selling progress in the North China and Huanghuai main - producing areas is about 76%, 4 percentage points higher than last week. The overall grain - selling progress is 6% lower than the same period last year, and the circulating grain source is continuously tight. In terms of inventory structure, the dry - grain inventories of traders and drying towers in the producing areas are lower than the same period last year, and most are in a state of cost inversion at the current spot price, with a strong willingness to hold prices. As the temperature rises, the storage pressure of grass - roots damp grain increases, and some farmers' enthusiasm for selling grain has increased; but traders have no active price - cut and selling behavior due to cost pressure, and the sentiment of holding grain and waiting is still there. Overall, the prices in the producing areas are oscillating at a high level, with firm prices in the Northeast and narrow - range oscillations in North China [6]. Port Inventory and Price - This week, the prices of the north - south ports decreased slightly. The purchase price of second - class corn at Jinzhou Port in the north dropped to 2345 - 2355 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of about 10 yuan/ton; the平仓 price was reported at 2390 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 15 yuan. This is mainly because traders in the Northeast producing areas are more willing to sell at high prices, the effective market supply has increased, and downstream procurement is cautious, resulting in a significant accumulation of inventories at the four northern ports to 2.541 million tons, a weekly increase of 359,000 tons, while the shipping volume decreased by 117,000 tons to 635,000 tons, showing a situation of increasing port inventory and decreasing shipments. The price at Shekou Port in the south is relatively firm but overall weak. The self - pick - up price is maintained at 2500 yuan/ton, but the domestic trade inventory has dropped to 234,000 tons, and the domestic trade shipping volume has also decreased to 205,000 tons, reflecting the lack of enthusiasm of downstream pick - up. The prices in the sales areas are stable but weak, and the core pressure comes from the competition of substitutes. Although there is still a rigid demand for feed in the south, under the multiple substitutions of imported sorghum, barley and domestic wheat, the acceptance of high - priced domestic corn by enterprises in the sales areas is limited, and most of the purchases are made as needed. The market is full of waiting - and - seeing sentiment, resulting in a slowdown in port shipments and a loosening of prices in the sales areas [7]. Impact of Import Substitution and Policy Auctions - Imported grains and domestic policy auctions together form the core pressure and supply variables in the current corn market, and their impacts are mainly reflected in price competition, demand diversion and market sentiment. Imported grains such as sorghum and barley are suppressing the demand for domestic corn with significant price advantages. The price of imported sorghum at Nantong Port is 2470 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton lower than the corn price at the same port, which directly prompts feed enterprises to increase their purchases to reduce costs and squeezes the feed share of corn. The impact of policy auctions is more critical. Although the reserve price of the minimum - purchase - price rice auction has been lowered, the cost of processed brown rice is still over 3000 yuan/ton, so it does not form a real substitute for the corn market, and it is more of a policy - signal impact. If the reserve price of the targeted auction of old rice is significantly lowered to 1450 - 1600 yuan/ton, the theoretical port - collection cost of brown rice can be reduced to 2161 - 2325 yuan/ton, which will start to have the ability to compete with the current corn price at the northern ports and may become a new effective substitute. The incremental supply of policy wheat auctions is the most substantial source of pressure at present. The weak wheat price has prompted feed enterprises in North China and East China to increase the wheat substitution ratio to 20% - 50%, directly and massively squeezing the feed demand for corn. Overall, imported grains and policy auctions not only divert the corn demand through actual consumption but also change the market mentality. Traders are more willing to sell, and downstream enterprises slow down their purchases of high - priced corn due to diversified choices. The market waiting - and - seeing sentiment intensifies, jointly suppressing the upward space of corn prices [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that Qianwen's AI ride-hailing service is not just a technological advancement but a significant evolution in how AI can integrate into daily life, addressing real-world problems effectively [3][7]. Group 1: AI Ride-Hailing Functionality - Qianwen has launched an AI ride-hailing feature that allows users to book rides with simple voice commands, showcasing its ability to understand complex user needs [3][7]. - The AI can interpret fragmented and abstract requests, such as multi-stop rides or specific driver preferences, thus enhancing user experience [11][13]. - This service aims to eliminate the standardization issues prevalent in traditional ride-hailing apps, which often fail to meet personalized user demands [6][17]. Group 2: User Experience and Market Position - The article discusses the pain points of existing ride-hailing services, highlighting issues like poor driver quality and the cumbersome app interface that complicates the user experience [5][6]. - Qianwen's approach is positioned as a solution to these problems, focusing on understanding and fulfilling individual user needs rather than just providing a basic transportation service [19][24]. - The ride-hailing market is described as highly competitive with low margins, but Qianwen's strategy is to position itself as a gateway to broader consumer experiences, linking transportation to dining and entertainment [24][28]. Group 3: Ecosystem Integration - Qianwen benefits from being part of Alibaba's ecosystem, which allows seamless integration with other services like navigation and payment, enhancing overall user convenience [22][28]. - The interconnectedness of services within the Alibaba ecosystem enables Qianwen to offer a comprehensive solution that goes beyond just ride-hailing, facilitating a complete consumer journey [22][28]. - The article argues that this strategic positioning within a larger ecosystem is crucial for capturing consumer loyalty and driving future growth [28][30].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba-SW (09988.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [6][24]. Core Insights - Alibaba's overall performance shows weak e-commerce results while cloud revenue continues to accelerate. For FY26Q3, Alibaba reported revenue of 284.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%. The revenue growth rates for different segments were 6% for the China e-commerce group, 4% for the international digital commerce group, 36% for the cloud intelligence group, and -20% for all others [1][9]. - The adjusted EBITA for FY26Q3 was 23.4 billion yuan, down 57% year-on-year, with an adjusted EBITA margin of 8.2%. The non-GAAP net profit was 16.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 67% year-on-year, resulting in a net profit margin of 5.9%. Free cash flow for the quarter was 11.3 billion yuan, down 71% year-on-year, primarily due to investments in instant retail [1][9]. Summary by Sections E-commerce Performance - The China e-commerce group's revenue for FY26Q3 increased by 1% year-on-year, with a significant decline in quarter-on-quarter growth due to base effects from improved monetization rates and weak market performance. Instant retail revenue reached 20.8 billion yuan, up 56% year-on-year. The company added approximately 150 million annual active buyers on the platform, with about 100 million in physical e-commerce [2][14]. - The adjusted EBITA for the China e-commerce group was 34.6 billion yuan, down 43% year-on-year, with an adjusted EBITA margin of 22%, a decline of 19 percentage points year-on-year. The estimated loss from the instant retail business for the quarter was around 20.8 billion yuan [2][14]. Cloud Computing - The cloud intelligence group's revenue for FY26Q3 was 43.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36%. The overall revenue, excluding intercompany transactions, grew by 35% year-on-year. AI-related product revenue continued to grow at triple-digit rates. Alibaba Cloud's market share has increased for three consecutive quarters, reaching 36% [3][16]. - The company expects external revenue from cloud and AI, including MaaS, to exceed 100 billion USD over the next five years, with a compound annual growth rate of over 40% [3][16]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028 have been slightly adjusted to 1,033.8 billion yuan, 1,165.4 billion yuan, and 1,318.8 billion yuan, reflecting a positive outlook on cloud revenue growth. Adjusted net profit forecasts have been revised to 79.7 billion yuan, 105.7 billion yuan, and 134.3 billion yuan, primarily due to higher-than-expected R&D and marketing investments related to Qianwen and e-commerce [4][25].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba is "Outperform the Market" [6][24]. Core Insights - Alibaba's overall performance shows weak e-commerce results while cloud revenue continues to accelerate. In FY26Q3, Alibaba reported revenue of 284.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%. The revenue growth rates for different segments were 6% for the China e-commerce group, 4% for the international digital commerce group, 36% for the cloud intelligence group, and -20% for all others [1][9]. - The adjusted EBITA for the quarter was 23.4 billion yuan, down 57% year-on-year, with an adjusted EBITA margin of 8.2%. The non-GAAP net profit was 16.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 67% year-on-year, resulting in a net profit margin of 5.9%. Free cash flow for the quarter was 11.3 billion yuan, down 71% year-on-year, primarily due to investments in instant retail [1][9]. Summary by Relevant Sections E-commerce Performance - The China e-commerce group's revenue in FY26Q3 increased by 1% year-on-year, with a significant decline in quarter-on-quarter growth due to base effects from improved monetization rates and weak market performance. Instant retail revenue reached 20.8 billion yuan, up 56% year-on-year, contributing to an increase of approximately 150 million active buyers on the platform in 2025 [2][14]. - The adjusted EBITA for the China e-commerce group was 34.6 billion yuan, down 43% year-on-year, with an adjusted EBITA margin of 22%, a decline of 19 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to investments in instant retail [2][14]. Cloud Computing - The cloud intelligence group's revenue in FY26Q3 was 43.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36%. The overall revenue, excluding intercompany transactions, grew by 35% year-on-year, with AI-related product revenue maintaining triple-digit growth. Alibaba Cloud's market share has increased to 36% [3][16]. - The company expects external revenue from cloud and AI to exceed 100 billion USD over the next five years, with a compound annual growth rate of over 40% [3][16]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028 have been slightly adjusted to 1,033.8 billion yuan, 1,165.4 billion yuan, and 1,318.8 billion yuan, reflecting a positive outlook on cloud revenue growth. Adjusted net profit forecasts have been revised to 79.7 billion yuan, 105.7 billion yuan, and 134.3 billion yuan, primarily due to higher-than-expected R&D and marketing investments [4][25].

Core Insights - The article highlights the rapid growth of Alibaba's Qianwen App, which surpassed 300 million monthly active users (MAU) by February 2026, driven by its unique positioning as an AI assistant capable of performing tasks rather than just engaging in conversation [1][2] - The shift from chatbots to task-oriented AI is emphasized, with Qianwen's ability to facilitate real-life services like food ordering and ticket booking, thus enhancing user engagement and retention [2][4] Group 1: User Engagement and Growth - Qianwen App experienced a significant increase in daily active users (DAU), stabilizing at several times the pre-festival levels after the Spring Festival promotions, indicating strong user adoption beyond initial trials [1][2] - The app's design allows for simple, conversational interactions, making it accessible to a broader demographic, including older users who may struggle with traditional app interfaces [2] Group 2: Competitive Advantage - Qianwen's integration within Alibaba's ecosystem provides a competitive edge, allowing it to not only suggest actions but also execute them through services like Taobao and Tmall, creating a seamless user experience [4][5] - The app serves as a strategic entry point for Alibaba into the consumer internet space, leveraging high-frequency AI interactions to drive low-frequency service consumption [5][6] Group 3: Data Utilization and AI Development - The real user interactions and data generated from Qianwen are valuable for training AI models, enhancing their understanding and reasoning capabilities, thereby strengthening Alibaba's technological foundation [6] - The app's rapid rise, including over 10 million downloads in its first week and reaching 1 billion MAU by January 2026, showcases its effectiveness in establishing a strong market presence [6]

Investment Rating - The report rates the food and beverage industry as "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the CPI (Consumer Price Index) has shown signs of recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3% in February 2026, marking the highest growth since January 2023. This recovery is expected to benefit companies with strong pricing power in the food and beverage sector [2][15] - The report emphasizes the importance of companies that can effectively pass on costs to consumers, particularly in the condiment and restaurant supply chain sectors, as the industry transitions from a cost dividend phase to an initial stage of price increases [3][40] Summary by Sections CPI and Economic Recovery - The CPI has rebounded, indicating a shift towards moderate inflation, with the government targeting a CPI growth of around 2% for 2026. This is supported by fiscal policies aimed at stabilizing economic growth and reasonable price increases [6][15] - The service sector has become a key driver of growth, with significant increases in service prices contributing to the overall CPI rise [20][23] CPI-PPI Dynamics - The report discusses the narrowing of the CPI-PPI (Producer Price Index) gap, which is currently at 2.2 percentage points. This gap indicates that consumer prices are rising faster than production costs, benefiting companies with strong pricing power [28][30] - The report notes that the PPI has shown signs of improvement, with a year-on-year decline of 0.9% in February 2026, suggesting a stabilization in raw material prices [27][29] Cost Transmission and Pricing Power - The report identifies key raw materials that constitute 65%-85% of the operating costs for leading companies in the food and beverage sector, including soybeans, sugar, and dairy products. The ability to manage these costs effectively will be crucial for maintaining profitability [41][44] - Companies in the condiment and restaurant supply chain are highlighted as having strong pricing power, with expectations for a new round of price increases due to rising costs and improved demand conditions [3][40] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with strong channel and product capabilities, clear price increase expectations, and high dividend attributes, such as Haidilao, Anjoy Foods, and Mengniu Dairy [3][40] - It also suggests investing in leading beer companies and high-growth regional leaders, as well as companies in the dairy and snack sectors that possess category and channel advantages [3][40]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that inflation expectations serve as a "macro engine" for commodity markets, with recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East significantly influencing commodity trends, particularly leading to a surge in oil prices and a renewed focus on inflation trades, which may also heighten the risk of stagflation [2]. Group 1: Commodity Trends - Since January, commodities have shown overall strength with a structural market characterized by significant increases in energy prices, high levels in precious metals, a rebound in agricultural products, and weaker performance in the black commodities sector, reflecting rising supply chain risks and intensified policy negotiations [2]. - The recent geopolitical conflicts have notably increased market attention on agricultural products, leading to heightened speculative activity and a significant rise in implied volatility, with agricultural prices increasingly following oil price movements, indicating that macro-level influences outweigh basic supply-demand fundamentals [2]. Group 2: Correlation Between Oil and Agricultural Products - Historical data shows varying correlations between oil and agricultural products, with imported agricultural products being most affected. From 2016 to present, the correlation between Brent crude oil and agricultural prices, such as U.S. soybean oil, cotton, and corn, has been notably strong, often exceeding 0.67 [3]. Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - In early March, the oil market experienced a rapid upward pulse due to U.S.-Iran tensions, although prices have since retreated, establishing a higher price baseline. The oilseed market has strengthened due to both commodity market sentiment and the supportive fundamentals of biodiesel, making oilseeds a preferred choice among agricultural products [6]. - The current oil market dynamics differ from the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, as the oil market is now influenced by ongoing geopolitical tensions, with no clear signals for a ceasefire, leading to a gradual increase in oil price baselines [9]. Group 4: Agricultural Costs and Production - The conflict has raised fertilizer and chemical costs significantly, with the USDA estimating a 92% increase in fertilizer costs and a 54% increase in chemical costs for soybean planting in 2022. This cost increase is expected to persist into 2025 and 2026, leading to an overall rise in planting costs by approximately 9% [11]. - The soybean market is currently under pressure due to several years of high production, resulting in relatively low prices. However, the market sentiment is shifting, with the potential for upward price movement due to geopolitical events and changes in trade policies [12]. Group 5: Cotton Market Outlook - The ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict is expected to impact the cotton industry through increased costs across the supply chain, including planting, processing, and transportation. The ICAC predicts a 4% decline in global cotton production, which, combined with geopolitical uncertainties, may lead to increased price volatility [19]. - Short-term cotton prices are expected to remain strong, with potential for further increases if the conflict continues, as rising energy costs and declining production expectations converge [20]. Group 6: Sugar Market Dynamics - The global sugar market is currently in a production increase cycle, but prices are under pressure due to high industrial inventories. However, the market is showing signs of cost support, and geopolitical tensions may indirectly influence sugar prices through the ethanol market [27]. - The conflict has created disruptions in sugar supply chains, particularly affecting refined sugar exports, which may lead to tighter supply and upward price pressure in the sugar market [27]. Group 7: Corn Market Insights - The geopolitical tensions have led to significant uncertainty in logistics and production in the Middle East, driving up oil prices and subsequently impacting grain markets. Despite a generally loose supply-demand balance for corn and wheat, macroeconomic factors are currently dominating market dynamics [34]. - Domestic corn prices have strengthened due to market speculation and concerns over supply gaps, with expectations of continued price increases in the short term [34]. Group 8: Egg and Pork Markets - The fluctuations in oil prices are impacting the egg market primarily through cost channels, as rising feed prices due to increased demand for biofuels are expected to elevate production costs for eggs [42]. - The pork market is experiencing indirect effects from rising feed costs, which could lead to increased production costs and potential supply pressures in the near term [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 3 - month USDA report is the same as last month. Due to the continued rise in crude oil this week, US corn has reached its highest level since January. The US corn 05 contract has risen to around 460 cents per bushel. The import profit of US corn and Brazilian corn is relatively high. After the Spring Festival, with the warming weather, farmers are selling more grain, and traders and downstream buyers are replenishing their stocks. Corn spot prices are rising, and port inventories are still low. However, the wheat auction volume has increased this week. It is expected that farmers will sell more grain in March, but the downstream and channel inventories are still low, so the spot price is expected to remain stable. The price difference between wheat and corn in North China has narrowed, and it is expected that the supply of North China corn will increase next week. The increase in supply at the northern ports in the short - term, combined with the increase in wheat auction volume, but the downstream inventory is still low, so the callback of the 05 corn contract is limited. Attention should be paid to the auctions of brown rice and corn, as well as the impact of rising crude oil on corn [4]. - The operating rate of starch factories has increased, downstream提货 has improved, and starch inventory has decreased, remaining lower than last year. The sharp rise in corn spot prices has led to a significant increase in starch spot prices. Starch enterprises are making good profits. It is expected that the supply of corn spot will increase next week, and by - product prices are high, so the starch spot price is expected to remain strong. The 05 corn starch contract is expected to fluctuate at a high level following corn [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Corn**: The 3 - month USDA report is flat compared to last month. Crude oil has pushed up US corn prices. The 05 contract of US corn has reached 460 cents per bushel. The import profit of US and Brazilian corn is high. After the Spring Festival, the increase in farmers' grain sales and downstream replenishment has led to an increase in corn spot prices. Although the wheat auction volume has increased this week, it is expected that the corn spot price will remain stable in March due to low downstream inventories. The price difference between wheat and corn in North China has narrowed, and it is expected that the supply of North China corn will increase next week. The increase in supply at the northern ports in the short - term and the increase in wheat auction volume will limit the callback of the 05 corn contract. Attention should be paid to the auctions of brown rice and corn and the impact of crude oil [4]. - **Starch**: The operating rate of starch factories has increased, downstream提货 has improved, and starch inventory has decreased. The sharp rise in corn prices has led to a significant increase in starch prices, and enterprises are making good profits. It is expected that the starch spot price will remain strong next week, and the 05 corn starch contract will fluctuate at a high level following corn [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: - Unilateral: Try to buy US corn 05 below 440 cents per bushel. Go long on the 05 corn contract on dips [5]. - Arbitrage: Expand the price difference between the 05 corn and starch contracts on dips [5]. - Options: Adopt a cumulative purchase strategy for the 05 corn contract after a callback [5]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 International - **Crude oil drives up US corn prices**: The 3 - month US corn report shows stable yield per unit area and planting area, with a yield per unit area of 186.5 bushels per acre. This week, crude oil has continued to rise, and the 05 contract has reached a high of 460 cents per bushel. China has lowered tariffs on US agricultural products. The import cost of US Western corn in May is around 2,230 yuan per ton, and the import profit is good. As of March 12, the import profit of Brazilian corn arriving in July at Guangdong Port is 201 yuan per ton [9]. - **Increase in non - commercial net long positions in US corn and decrease in ethanol production**: As of March 5, the non - commercial net long position of US corn is 90,000 lots, showing an increase. US ethanol production has decreased. The 05 contract of US corn has risen to a phased high of 460 cents per bushel [16]. 3.2.2 Domestic - **Decrease in deep - processing and feed enterprise inventories and increase in deep - processing consumption**: As of March 11, the average corn inventory of 47 large - scale feed mills is 30.06 days, a decrease of 1.09 days compared to the previous week and a 6.73% decrease compared to the same period last year. From March 5 to March 11, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.269 million tons of corn, an increase of 49,100 tons compared to the previous week. As of March 11, the corn inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises is 3.377 million tons, a 1.75% decrease from the previous week and a 31.69% decrease compared to the same period last year. It is expected that the inventory will increase next week [20][21]. - **Increase in northern port corn inventory and decrease in southern port grain inventory**: As of March 6, the corn inventory at the four northern ports is 1.951 million tons, an increase of 224,000 tons compared to the previous week and a decrease of 3.107 million tons compared to the same period last year. The shipping volume at the four ports this week is 341,000 tons, an increase of 109,000 tons compared to the previous week. The domestic trade corn inventory at Guangdong Port is 524,000 tons, a decrease of 219,000 tons compared to the previous week; the foreign trade inventory is 172,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons compared to the previous week; the imported sorghum is 302,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons compared to the previous week; the imported barley is 740,000 tons, an increase of 101,000 tons compared to the previous week. The total grain inventory is 1.738 million tons, a decrease of 93,000 tons compared to the previous week [24]. - **Slower grain - selling progress**: As of March 12, the overall grain - selling progress of 13 provinces is 74%, a 4% increase compared to the previous week and a 6% decrease compared to the same period last year; the overall grain - selling progress of 7 provinces (Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Shandong, and Henan) is 73%, a 5% increase compared to the previous week and a 6% decrease compared to the same period last year [28]. - **Starch**: The operating rate of deep - processing enterprises has increased. From March 5 to March 12, the national corn processing volume is 598,400 tons, and the starch production is 304,900 tons, an increase of 6,600 tons compared to the previous week. The operating rate is 55.73%, an increase of 1.21% compared to the previous week. The increase in corn and by - product prices has improved enterprise profits. The profit per ton of corn in Heilongjiang is 12 yuan, an increase of 55 yuan compared to the previous week, and the profit in Shandong is 22 yuan, an increase of 56 yuan compared to the previous week. The downstream提货 is stable, and the increase in the operating rate has led to a decrease in starch inventory. As of March 11, the corn starch inventory is 1.209 million tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons compared to the previous week, a 0.82% decrease, a 0.9% increase compared to the previous month, and an 11.2% decrease compared to the same period last year [32]. - **Substitute products**: The wheat price is strong, with the arrival price in North China basically at 2,570 yuan per ton. The price difference between wheat and corn has narrowed, and the prices of North China and Northeast corn have risen, with the price difference between North China and Northeast corn expanding [39]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **Livestock and Poultry**: From March 6 to March 12, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs is - 233 yuan per head, a decrease of 57 yuan per head compared to the previous week; the profit of purchasing piglets is - 144 yuan per head, a decrease of 56 yuan per head compared to the previous week. From March 5 to March 12, the breeding profit of white - feather broilers is 0.92 yuan per bird, compared to 1.04 yuan per bird last week. The egg - laying hen breeding cost is 3.62 yuan per catty, and the breeding profit is - 0.59 yuan per catty, compared to - 0.57 yuan per catty last week [43][49]. - **Deep - processing**: The operating rate of starch sugar has increased. This week, the operating rate of F55 high - fructose corn syrup is 42.55%, an increase of 10.33% compared to the previous week, and the operating rate of maltose syrup is 37.73%, an increase of 8.77% compared to the previous week. The operating rate of paper mills has increased. This week, the operating rate of corrugated paper is 67.65%, an increase of 7.28% compared to the previous week, and the operating rate of boxboard paper is 69.78%, an increase of 6.74% compared to the previous week [52].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [2] Core Views - The food and beverage industry has experienced a decline of 2.48% from March 2 to March 6, 2026, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.41 percentage points [4][9] - The current valuation of the food and beverage industry is at a historical low, with a PE ratio of 20X, ranking 24th among Shenwan's primary industries [5][15] - The decline in raw milk prices is slowing, with the average price in major production areas at 3.03 RMB/kg, down 1.90% year-on-year [5][28] - The investment suggestion highlights three main lines: focusing on industry leaders with stable demand, companies actively developing new products and channels, and segments with high growth potential and reasonable valuations [7][40] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - From March 2 to March 6, 2026, the food and beverage industry fell by 2.48%, ranking 14th out of 31 sectors, with meat products, beer, and dairy showing slight increases [4][9] Valuation Insights - As of March 6, 2026, the food and beverage industry's PE ratio is 20X, with other liquor at 50X, snacks at 34X, and health products at 33X, while white liquor, beer, and dairy are lower at 18X, 23X, and 23X respectively [5][15] Price Tracking - Raw milk prices are stabilizing, with the average price at 3.03 RMB/kg, and yogurt and milk prices showing slight changes [5][28] - Pork prices are declining in the off-season, with average prices for piglets at 27.67 RMB/kg and live pigs at 12.45 RMB/kg [6][30] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines for investment: industry leaders with strong demand, companies innovating in products and channels, and segments with solid growth and low valuations [7][40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: With rising temperatures and the end of the Spring Festival holiday, the willingness of grass - roots farmers in the production areas to sell grain increases, and market supply may rise. However, only about 30% of the grass - roots grain sources remain after the festival, reducing selling pressure. There is still a sentiment of reluctant selling and price support at the grass - roots level, and port inventories are still at a low level. For substitutes, the wheat price is relatively stable and has no feed substitution advantage over corn. Policy - grain auctions supplement market supply, and the substitution advantage of imported grains such as barley has increased. Future imports may continue to increase in a restorative manner [8][48]. - Demand side: The continuous growth of pig inventory drives the improvement of feed demand. After consumption, the inventory level of feed enterprises is still low. Deep - processing enterprises are deeply in loss in processing profit, with average operating rates and low inventories compared to the same period last year. There is a demand for restocking after the festival [8][48]. - Overall: In the spot market, in March, the purchase and sale of grass - roots corn will gradually resume, and market supply will increase, with possible temporary selling pressure, but the selling pressure will be alleviated. Downstream enterprises and the trading sector still have the demand to increase inventory, and the overall supply - demand pattern may still be tight. It is expected that the spot price of corn in March will mainly fluctuate and strengthen. In the futures market, with only about 30% of the grass - roots grain sources remaining after the festival, supply pressure is reduced, and market sentiment is strong. Contracts 2605/07 may still mainly fluctuate and strengthen. Follow - up attention should be paid to the later grain - selling progress and national policies such as grain投放 [8][48]. - Strategies: (1) Spot enterprises should appropriately restock at low prices; (2) Futures investors should continue to hold long - term long positions [8][48]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Spot market: In February, corn prices rose. In the Northeast, prices were weak first and then strong. In North China, prices remained strong. In the sales areas, prices rose steadily. As of February 28, prices in various regions increased compared to the previous month. For example, the price in Harbin increased by 20 yuan/ton, and that in Changchun increased by 50 yuan/ton [10]. - Futures market: As of February 27, the main contract 2605 of Dalian corn futures closed at 2360 yuan/ton, a 3.6% increase from the end of last month [11]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Corn Supply - Grain - selling progress: Affected by the Spring Festival, the grain - selling progress was slow, and the average progress was significantly slower than the same period last year. As of now, the farmers' corn - selling progress is 65%, slower than the same period in different regions. It is expected that the progress will speed up after the Lantern Festival [14]. - Port inventory: In February, the inventory in northern ports decreased slightly, while that in southern ports increased. As of February 27, the total inventory of the four major northern corn - trading ports was 190.03 tons, a 5.35% decrease from the end of last month. The inventory in Guangdong ports (eastern Guangdong) was 85.90 tons, a 110.54% increase from the end of last month [15]. 3.2.2 Domestic Substitutes - Wheat: As of February 28, the national average corn price was 2364 yuan/ton, and the average wheat price was 2528 yuan/ton. The wheat market was strong before the Spring Festival and stable after the festival. The market has shifted from pre - festival stocking - driven to post - festival off - season operation, and the market has gradually entered a rational adjustment stage [17]. 3.2.3 Imported Substitute Grains - Import data: In December, the import of grains was 10.86 million tons, a 6.0% year - on - year increase. In 2025, the cumulative import of grains was 140.56 million tons, a 10.8% year - on - year decrease. Different grains had different import trends. The import advantage of other grains has increased, and future imports may continue to increase [21][27]. 3.2.4 Feed Demand - Feed production: In 2025, the total output of the national industrial feed was 342.253 million tons, an 8.6% increase from the previous year. Different types of feed had different growth rates. - Pig production capacity: According to different data sources, the inventory of sows of reproductive age showed different trends. Overall, the pig slaughter in the first half of the year may increase slightly and year - on - year, so the feed output is expected to continue to increase slightly and year - on - year [30][34]. - Feed enterprise inventory: As of February 28, the average inventory time of national sample feed enterprises was 31.29 days, a 2.00% month - on - month and 2.43% year - on - year decrease. The inventory days decreased slightly this month [35]. 3.2.5 Deep - processing Demand - Starch production and profit: In February, the price of raw - material corn continued to be strong, and the profitability of deep - processing enterprises did not improve significantly. The output and operating rate of corn starch decreased compared to the previous month and the same period last year. The processing profit of starch enterprises was in loss, and the loss in some regions deepened [40]. - Deep - processing enterprise inventory: As of February 25, the total corn inventory of processing enterprises was 3.852 million tons, a 12.55% month - on - month and 25.48% year - on - year decrease. It is expected that the inventory level will continue to rise in March [41]. 3.2.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - According to the February 2026 agricultural product supply - demand report of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the prediction of China's corn supply - demand situation this month is the same as last month. In the 2025/26 season, the corn planting area, yield per unit area, and total output are expected to increase. The import volume remains at 6 million tons. The feed consumption demand of corn will decline slightly at a high level, and the deep - processing consumption will stop falling and rise. The current corn sales progress is generally faster year - on - year [46]. 3.3 Later Outlook - The viewpoints and strategies are the same as the core viewpoints of the report, emphasizing the supply - demand situation, price trends, and corresponding investment strategies [48].