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大麦娱乐(01060):泛文娱全产业链发展,加速推进全球化战略布局:IP衍生业务表现强劲,演出市场扩大品牌影响
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-08-20 03:15
Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [5]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in the IP licensing and commercialization platform in China, with a strong presence in the concert ticketing service sector, continuously expanding the "Damai" brand influence [2][9]. - The IP derivative business is expected to be the primary growth driver, with significant revenue growth projected in the coming years [9]. - The company aims to accelerate its global strategic layout while leveraging its diverse IP matrix across various genres [9]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 50.4 billion RMB in 2024 to 109.84 billion RMB by 2028, with a CAGR of 19.2% [3][12]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 285 million RMB in 2024 to 1.59 billion RMB in 2028, reflecting a substantial growth trajectory [3][12]. - The company anticipates an EPS of 0.03, 0.04, and 0.05 RMB for the fiscal years 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively [9][12]. Revenue Breakdown - The IP derivative business is projected to generate 14.33 billion RMB in revenue for the fiscal year 2025, marking a 73% year-on-year increase [9][12]. - The concert ticketing segment, after the full acquisition of Damai, is expected to achieve revenues of 20.57 billion RMB in 2025, a 236% increase [9][12]. - The film segment is projected to see a decline in revenue, with a forecast of 2.71 billion RMB in 2025, down 9.6% year-on-year [12]. Valuation and Price Target - The target price for the company is set at 1.94 HKD based on an average of PE and PS valuation methods for the fiscal year 2026 [9][13]. - The report references comparable companies with an average PE of 50 times for 2025, indicating a favorable valuation outlook for the company [13][14].
玉米周报:部分企业开始停收玉米玉米价格继续震荡偏弱-20250819
Zhe Shang Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 11:48
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint - The corn market is in a stage of oscillating downward, and the later price center is expected to decline. Due to high yields, imported corn supplements the market supply, and the overall supply is sufficient. The price difference between corn and wheat remains in the substitutable range, with wheat being widely used as a substitute for corn. Alongside the substitution of millet and other grains, these factors suppress the corn price. The planting area of new crops is high, and the expected yield per unit is good, so the new crop yield is still expected to be abundant. The lowest planting cost of the new crop on the futures market is about 2,000 yuan/ton, and the cost center continues to shift downward. Under multiple negative factors, it is expected that c2509 will oscillate downward, and the later price center is expected to shift downward [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Domestic Corn Supply - **Supply**: The domestic corn price continues to oscillate weakly, and the growth of new - season corn is good. The current main variable is the weather during the growth period, especially rainfall. The NDVI data shows that the growth of corn in Northeast China is significantly better than in previous years, while in North China, although affected by extreme weather, the growth is still around the annual average. Overall, the expected yield per unit of corn in the main production areas is good [9][10]. - **Import**: The scale of corn imports has significantly decreased. In June 2025, the total corn import volume was 156,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 82.99% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.21 tons. From January to June 2025, the total corn import volume was 785,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 92.88%. The USDA estimates that China's corn imports in the 2024/25 season will be 4 million tons, lower than 23.41 million tons in the 2023/24 season [17][19][20]. - **Substitutes**: Feed enterprises are purchasing wheat to replace corn, and the substitution pressure of imported substitutes is decreasing. The price difference between corn and wheat in North China is near parity, and wheat has a high cost - effectiveness, exerting great pressure on the feed - use substitution of corn. In June 2025, the import volume of barley decreased by 23.83% year - on - year, and the import volume of sorghum decreased by 32.71% year - on - year [29][30]. Demand - **Feed and Livestock Farming**: The feed demand in the livestock farming industry is rigid, but the breeding profit is average. In June 2025, the national industrial feed production was 27.67 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. The inventory of breeding sows, the parent - stock of white - feather broilers, and the hatching volume of laying - hen chicks are all at high levels, indicating a rigid feed demand. However, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs is at a low level, the profit of broiler breeding is seasonally rising, and the profit of laying - hen breeding has deteriorated [34][35][36]. - **Deep - processing**: The operating rate of corn starch enterprises in Heilongjiang has increased significantly, but the deep - processing production profit is severely in the red. The operating rate of major corn starch enterprises nationwide has rebounded to a neutral level, with Shandong and Heilongjiang showing relatively high rates. The corn starch production has also increased, but the downstream提货量 is low, and the production profit is severely in the red. The consumption of corn by corn alcohol enterprises has slowed down, and the operating rate has reached a new low [55][56]. Inventory - **Corn Trade and Inventory**: The inventory of trade channels and downstream users is gradually decreasing, and the starch inventory is significantly high. As of August 8, the inventory of the four northern ports continued to decline, and the domestic trade inventory of southern ports fluctuated downward. The inventory of feed enterprises continued to decrease, and the inventory of deep - processing enterprises decreased seasonally. The starch inventory of major starch enterprises continued to reach a new high in the past eight years [83][84][85]. Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The report provides the basis data of corn 01, 05, 09 contracts at Jinzhou Port and the basis data of starch 01, 05, 09 contracts in Jilin area on August 14, 2025 [117][119][121]. - **Spread**: The report provides the spread data of corn 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and the spread data of starch 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1, as well as the spread data between corn and starch 01, 05, 09 contracts [127][128][129]. Corn Warehouse Receipt Quantity - As of August 14, 2025, the corn warehouse receipt quantity was 222,298 hands, and the corn starch warehouse receipt quantity was 25,000 hands [140]. Industrial Chain Operation Suggestions - **Traders**: For procurement management, build inventory and seek to buy corn at low prices. Use a 100% hedging ratio, buy the c2509 - C - 2400 option at an entry price of 8. For inventory management, sell corn at high prices and use a 100% hedging ratio, short the c2509 contract at an entry price of 2300 [4]. - **Downstream Enterprises**: For procurement management, when in need of corn raw materials and worried about price increases, use a 100% hedging ratio, buy the c2509 - C - 2400 option. For inventory management, when the raw material inventory is high and worried about price drops, use a 100% hedging ratio, short the c2509 contract at an entry price of 2300 [4].
淘宝闪购骑手新工装曝光,印满阿里系品牌logo
Xin Lang Ke Ji· 2025-08-11 17:21
Core Viewpoint - The new uniforms for Taobao Flash delivery riders have been revealed, featuring prominent logos of Alibaba's core brands, effectively turning the riders into "walking advertisements" for the company [1]. Group 1 - The new uniforms are primarily orange and black, resembling racing suits, combining dynamic design with functionality [1]. - The uniforms prominently display logos from various Alibaba businesses, including Taobao Flash, 1688, Hema, Ele.me, Alipay, Quark, Fliggy, Alibaba Cloud, Gaode Map, and Damai, highlighting the company's extensive brand ecosystem [1]. - A delivery rider expressed excitement about the new uniform, indicating that it is visually appealing and has generated positive feedback among peers [1][3].
玉米周报:河南等地旱情缓解,玉米价格继续震荡下行-20250811
Zhe Shang Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 11:22
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The corn market is in a stage of oscillatory decline, and the later price center is expected to decline. The c2509 contract is affected by multiple negative factors such as high production, sufficient supply from imported corn, substitution by wheat and other grains, high new - crop planting area, and expected good yield. The new - crop's minimum planting cost on the futures market is about 2,000 yuan/ton, and the cost center continues to shift down [1]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Supply Domestic Corn Supply - The corn price continues to oscillate weakly, and the new - crop corn is growing well. The current main variable in future supply is the weather during the growing period, especially rainfall. This week, the national corn market continued to be weak, with both futures and spot prices falling significantly. Different regions have different supply and demand situations. The new - crop production expectation and cost center shift down drive the futures price down [7][8]. Import - The scale of corn imports has significantly decreased. In June 2025, the total corn import volume was 156,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 82.99% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.21 tons. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume was 785,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 92.88%. The estimated import volume for the 2024/25 period is 5 million tons, lower than 23.41 million tons in the 2023/24 period [16][17]. Substitutes - Feed enterprises are purchasing wheat to replace corn, and the substitution pressure from imported substitutes is decreasing. The main domestic substitutes are wheat and millet, and the imported substitutes are mainly imported sorghum and barley. The wheat market is oscillating, and the current corn - wheat price difference in North China is in the substitutable range, so the substitution pressure on corn is high. In June 2025, the import volume of barley and sorghum decreased year - on - year, reducing the substitution pressure [26][28]. Demand Feed and Breeding - The feed demand in the breeding industry is rigid, but the breeding profit is generally average. In June 2025, the national industrial feed output was 27.67 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. The inventory of breeding sows, parent - stock white - feather broilers, and egg - laying chicken seedlings is at a high level, indicating a rigid feed demand. However, the self - breeding and self - raising pig breeding profit is at a low level, the broiler breeding profit is seasonally high, and the egg - laying chicken breeding loss has expanded [32][34]. Deep - processing - The operating rate of corn starch enterprises in Heilongjiang has risen significantly, but the deep - processing production profit is severely in the red. The operating rate of major corn starch enterprises nationwide has recovered to a neutral level, about 54.8%. The production of corn starch has also increased, but the downstream提货 volume is relatively low. The production profit of corn starch is severely in the red, and the profit of corn alcohol enterprises is still in the red [54][55]. Inventory Trade Channel Corn Inventory - The inventory in trade channels and downstream is gradually decreasing, and the starch inventory is significantly high. As of August 1, the inventory in the four northern ports continued to decline, with the total inventory dropping to about 1.9 million tons. The domestic trade inventory in southern ports fluctuated downward. The inventory of feed enterprises and deep - processing enterprises decreased seasonally. The starch inventory of major starch enterprises reached a new high in the past eight years, about 1.32 million tons [78][80]. Feed Enterprises' Corn Inventory - The corn inventory of feed enterprises continues to decrease, with the available inventory days at around 30 days, and the inventory in North China and South China is relatively high [79]. Deep - processing Enterprises' Corn Inventory - The corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises decreased seasonally, with the national inventory at about 3.64 million tons, at a neutral level [79]. Basis and Spread - The report provides data on the basis and spread of corn and starch, including the basis of different contracts in Jinzhou Port and Jilin area, and the spread between different contracts of corn and starch [114][124]. Corn Warehouse Receipt Quantity - On August 7, 2025, the number of corn warehouse receipts was 222,298 hands, and the number of corn starch warehouse receipts was 25,000 hands [132].
玉米:盘面承压
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 02:00
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The corn market is under pressure on the futures market, with a neutral trend strength [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The purchase price in Northeast China is not available, the Jinzhou平仓 price is 2,320 yuan/ton, the average purchase price in North China is not available, and the price in Guangdong Shekou is 2,390 yuan/ton. The price of Shandong corn starch is 2,840 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of C2509 yesterday was 2,255 yuan/ton, down 0.49%, and the overnight closing price was 2,262 yuan/ton, up 0.31%. The closing price of C2511 yesterday was 2,199 yuan/ton, down 0.68%, and the overnight closing price was 2,203 yuan/ton, up 0.18% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of C2509 yesterday was 338,463 lots, a decrease of 26,786 lots, and the open interest was 659,407 lots, a decrease of 25,646 lots. The trading volume of C2511 yesterday was 167,935 lots, an increase of 22,438 lots, and the open interest was 592,103 lots, an increase of 18,913 lots. The total trading volume of the corn market was 612,883 lots, an increase of 2,845 lots, and the total open interest was 1,711,288 lots, an increase of 18,659 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of corn warehouse receipts in the market yesterday was 144,037 lots, a decrease of 1,758 lots [1]. - **Spreads**: The basis of the main contract 09 was 65 yuan/ton, and the 09 - 11 inter - period spread was 56 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Corn Prices**: The northern corn collection port price is 2,260 - 2,280 yuan/ton (listed), the container collection port price is 2,330 - 2,350 yuan/ton, and the prices are flat compared to yesterday. The price of bulk ships in Guangdong Shekou is 2,370 - 2,390 yuan/ton, and the container price is 2,460 - 2,490 yuan/ton, also flat compared to yesterday. The corn prices in Northeast enterprises slightly decreased, and the prices in North China showed mixed trends [2]. - **Substitute Grain Prices**: The price of Argentine sorghum (bulk) in Guangdong for September - October shipment is 2,120 yuan/ton, the price of Australian sorghum for September shipment is 2,430 yuan/ton. The pre - sale price of imported barley for October - November shipment is 2,100 - 2,150 yuan/ton, and for December - January shipment is 2,040 - 2,090 yuan/ton. The price of feed wheat for August delivery is 2,560 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of corn is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4].
据国际文传电讯社:俄罗斯提高大麦和玉米出口关税基准价格。
news flash· 2025-07-25 10:50
Core Viewpoint - Russia has increased the benchmark export duties on barley and corn, which may impact global grain markets and trade dynamics [1] Group 1: Export Duties - The new export duties are expected to affect the pricing and availability of barley and corn in international markets [1] - This decision may lead to increased costs for importers and could influence global supply chains [1] Group 2: Market Implications - The rise in export duties could potentially lead to a decrease in Russia's grain exports, affecting overall global grain supply [1] - Other countries may need to adjust their import strategies in response to the changes in Russian export policies [1]
玉米:持续反弹
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 02:14
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - Corn prices are on a continuous rebound [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The Jinzhou closing price was 2,340 yuan/ton with no change; the Guangdong Shekou price was 2,430 yuan/ton with no change; the Shandong corn starch price was 2,840 yuan/ton with no change [2] - **Futures Prices**: C2509 closed at 2,314 yuan/ton yesterday with a 1.22% increase and 2,319 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.22% increase; C2511 closed at 2,281 yuan/ton yesterday with a 0.97% increase and 2,284 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.13% increase [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: C2509 had a trading volume of 550,232 lots yesterday with a decrease of 3,704 lots and an open interest of 1,067,675 lots with an increase of 8,025 lots; C2511 had a trading volume of 98,925 lots yesterday with an increase of 16,349 lots and an open interest of 408,184 lots with an increase of 10,735 lots; the corn whole - market trading volume was 740,289 lots with an increase of 18,550 lots and an open interest of 1,747,516 lots with an increase of 29,358 lots [2] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The corn whole - market warehouse receipts were 178,283 lots yesterday with a decrease of 6,688 lots [2] - **Price Spreads**: The main 09 basis was 26 yuan/ton; the 09 - 11 inter - period spread was 33 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Northern corn port collection prices were 2,280 - 2,300 yuan/ton (listed), moisture 14.5%, unchanged from yesterday; container port collection prices were 2,330 - 2,360 yuan/ton, unchanged from yesterday; Guangdong Shekou bulk ship prices were 2,410 - 2,430 yuan/ton, container new - crop quotes were 2,430 - 2,450 yuan/ton, down 30 - 40 yuan/ton from the beginning of the week; Northeast enterprise corn prices showed mixed changes; North China corn prices continued to rebound [3] - Imported feed grain prices: Argentine sorghum (bulk) in Guangdong for July - August shipment was quoted at 2,130 yuan/ton, Australian sorghum for July - August shipment was quoted at 2,430 yuan/ton; imported barley for August - September shipment was pre - sold at 2,140 - 2,180 yuan/ton, for November - December shipment was pre - sold at 2,050 yuan/ton; feed wheat for July delivery was quoted at 2,530 yuan/ton, for August at 2,560 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The corn trend intensity was 0 [4]
USDA干旱报告:美国大豆受干旱影响区域减少 会否对美豆价格影响几何?
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-07-17 18:52
Core Insights - The latest USDA drought report indicates that various major agricultural regions in the U.S. are experiencing drought conditions ranging from moderate (D1) to extreme (D3) as of July 15, 2025, significantly impacting grain, cash crops, and livestock [1] Grain Sector - Durum Wheat: 41% of the production area is under drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week, but up 35 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Spring Wheat: 36% of the production area is under drought conditions, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous week and up 28 percentage points year-on-year [4] - Winter Wheat: 30% of the production area is under drought conditions, an increase of 4 percentage points from the previous week and up 6 percentage points year-on-year [5] - Corn: 9% of the production area is under drought conditions, a decrease of 3 percentage points from the previous week but up 4 percentage points year-on-year [6] - Soybeans: 7% of the production area is under drought conditions, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the previous week but up 2 percentage points year-on-year [7] - Barley: 59% of the production area is under drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week but up 33 percentage points year-on-year [8] - Sorghum: 7% of the production area is under drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week but down 14 percentage points year-on-year [9] - Rice: 1% of the production area is affected by drought, unchanged from the previous week and the same as last year [10] Cash Crop Sector - Cotton: 3% of the production area is under drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week but down 16 percentage points year-on-year [11] - Peanuts: 1% of the production area is under drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week and down 14 percentage points year-on-year [12] - Sunflowers: 8% of the production area is under drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week and up 5 percentage points year-on-year [13] - Sugarbeets: 39% of the production area is under drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week and up 36 percentage points year-on-year [14] - Sugarcane: 30% of the production area is under drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week and up 30 percentage points year-on-year [15] Livestock Sector - Hay: 18% of the production area is under drought conditions, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous week but up 2 percentage points year-on-year [16] - Alfalfa Hay: 30% of the production area is under drought conditions, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous week and up 13 percentage points year-on-year [17] - Cattle: 15% of the production area is under drought conditions, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous week and unchanged year-on-year [18] - Sheep: 29% of the production area is under drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week and up 9 percentage points year-on-year [18] - Milk Cows: 22% of the production area is under drought conditions, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous week and up 10 percentage points year-on-year [19] - Hogs: 4% of the production area is under drought conditions, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the previous week and down 3 percentage points year-on-year [19]
7月11日电,欧洲农民协会预测欧盟2025年大麦产量为5410万吨,比2024年增长9.2%。
news flash· 2025-07-11 10:27
Group 1 - The European Farmers Association predicts that the EU's barley production will reach 54.1 million tons in 2025, representing a 9.2% increase compared to 2024 [1]
玉米日报-20250711
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-11 03:51
Report Information - Report Title: Corn Daily Report [1] - Report Date: July 11, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall processing demand for corn is unlikely to increase, while wheat and imported corn continue to supplement the market supply, causing the market sentiment to turn slightly pessimistic and the price to decline slightly. However, the increasing storage and capital costs may limit the decline. The 2509 futures contract is mainly in a volatile correction following the spot market, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather in corn - producing areas on new crops [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 10th, the corn main contract 2509 opened lower and fluctuated higher, closing with a negative line at the end of the session. The highest price was 2325 yuan/ton, the lowest was 2313 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan compared to the previous trading day. The total index open interest increased by 21,480 lots to 1,626,312 lots [7]. - **Spot Market**: On the 10th, the price of second - class corn at Jinzhou Port was 2310 - 2340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The port inventory is continuously decreasing but remains at a high level compared to the same period. Wheat still has an advantage in feed substitution for corn, and the substitution volume continues to increase. Imported corn is continuously auctioned, increasing market supply. Barley and other alternative imported grains show price advantages, and future imports may increase. Feed demand is improving, but feed enterprises have relatively sufficient inventories, are not active in spot procurement, and turn to new wheat procurement, mainly conducting on - demand procurement and rolling replenishment. Deep - processing enterprises are continuously losing money, are entering the seasonal off - season, with a declining operating rate, and their inventories are relatively high and stable, mainly conducting rigid - demand procurement [7]. 2. Industry News - **US Corn Situation**: As of July 6, 74% of the corn in the United States was rated good to excellent, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous week, reaching the highest level for the same period since 2018. As of the week ending July 3, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 1,491,062 tons, compared with the revised 1,380,943 tons of the previous week and 1,023,905 tons of the same period last year. As of July 2, the average price of distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS) in 34 US regions was 148 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars from a week ago [8][10]. - **Other News**: India is seeking a trade agreement with the United States and may allow the import of some processed genetically modified agricultural products. The corn good - to - excellent rate in France is 78%, lower than 81% a week ago and 82% of the same period last year. Russia has lowered the wheat export tariff to zero and raised the corn export tariff by 3% from July 9 to 15, 2025. As of July 7, 2025/26, Ukraine's grain export volume was 77,000 tons, lower than 1,131,000 tons of the same period last year [10]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including corn futures and spot prices, port inventories, wheat prices, wheat - corn price spreads, corn imports, and feed production, with data sources from Wind and the Research Center of CCB Futures [7][9][11]