Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that steel mill profitability continues to be under pressure, which is expected to lead to a further decline in coking coal prices in the short term. However, due to a strong increase in July, the baseline coking coal price forecast for 2025 to 2027 has been raised by 7% to 13% [1] - The current valuation level of the domestic coal sector lacks attractiveness, leading the company to maintain a "neutral" rating for the industry [1] - The rating for China Coal Energy (601898) has been downgraded to "sell" due to the expectation of negative free cash flow for the year and the management's apparent unwillingness to increase the dividend payout ratio. The forecasted dividend yield for 2025 to 2027 is only 3.7% to 3.9%, with the target price reduced from HKD 7.39 to HKD 7.21. Additionally, the company's earnings forecast for 2025 to 2027 has been cut by 10% to 16% in response to the latest coal price expectations [1] Group 2 - Despite the current market expectations of relatively low coal inventory levels at domestic ports, which could support winter spot thermal coal prices, the overall forecast for spot coal prices for the year has been lowered by 4% due to disappointing price levels in the second quarter [1] - China Shenhua (601088) demonstrated resilient profitability in its interim results, with the smallest decline in unit profits for its coal business during the coal price drop in the first half of the year. The company maintains a "hold" rating, with the target price increased from HKD 32.18 to HKD 39.48 [1]

该行将中煤能源(01898)的评级降至"沽售"，因公司今年可能录得负数自由现金流，管理层似乎无意提 高派息比例，2025至2027年预测股息回报率仅达3.7%至3.9%，目标价从7.39港元降至7.21港元，并因应 对煤价最新预期，将该公司2025至2027年盈利预测下调10%至16%。 智通财经APP获悉，中银国际发布研报称，钢厂盈利持续受压，料将导致焦煤价格在短期内进一步走 弱，但基于7月份强劲升幅，将2025至2027年基准焦煤价格预测上调7%至13%。中银国际认为内地煤炭 板块当前估值水平缺乏吸引力，维持行业"中性"评级。 虽然目前市场预期国内港口煤炭库存水平相对偏低，可为冬季现货动力煤价格带来支持，但考虑到第二 季价格水平逊预期，仍将今年全年现货煤价预测下调4%。该行又指，中国神华(01088)中期业绩展示出 盈利具韧性，在上半年煤价下跌期间，其煤炭业务单位利润降幅为最小，维持"持有"评级，目标价由 32.18港元上调至39.48港元。 ...

该行将中煤能源评级降至"沽售"，因公司今年可能录得负数自由现金流，管理层似乎无意提高派息比 例，2025至2027年预测股息回报率仅达3.7%至3.9%，目标价从7.39港元降至7.21港元。该行又指，中国 神华中期业绩展示出盈利具韧性，在上半年煤价下跌期间，其煤炭业务单位利润降幅为最小，维持"持 有"评级，目标价由32.18港元上调至39.48港元。 中银国际发表研究报告指，虽然目前市场预期国内港口煤炭库存水平相对偏低，可为冬季现货动力煤价 格带来支持，但考虑到第二季价格水平逊预期，仍将今年全年现货煤价预测下调4%。该行认为，内地 煤炭板块当前估值水平缺乏吸引力，维持行业"中性"评级。 ...