Workflow
瑞博西利
icon
Search documents
【华创医药】九洲药业(603456)深度研究报告:小分子CDMO深度绑定大客户,TIDES新兴业务重塑增长预期
Core Viewpoint - Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical is entering a growth phase driven by its CDMO platform, which leverages its expertise in small molecules and TIDES, supported by a healthy project pipeline and high order visibility [3][5]. CDMO Business - The CDMO business is the main growth engine, with a robust project funnel and high order visibility. The company provides comprehensive lifecycle services from preclinical CMC to commercial production, deeply embedded in the supply chains of major pharmaceutical companies like Novartis and Roche [3]. - Key projects such as Noxafil and Ribociclib continue to generate revenue, while the rapid growth of the partnered product Vumerity is expected to provide sustained incremental growth [3]. - As of H1 2025, the company has a rich pipeline with 38 products on the market, 90 in Phase III, and 1,086 in Phase I/II, driving steady revenue growth [3]. API Business - The company focuses on specialty APIs, optimizing processes to enhance cost advantages. It holds a strong position in the CNS and anti-infection specialty API markets [4]. - Core product prices are expected to improve as industry inventory depletion nears completion, while new product categories are being introduced, including four specialty APIs by 2025 [4]. - Continuous process optimization and reduced development cycles are helping to maintain cost advantages, with an API business gross margin of 23.26% in H1 2025, up 2.08 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Formulations and CDMO - The company has made significant strides in its formulation and CDMO business through acquisitions and the establishment of its own facilities, completing its layout for generic and innovative drug formulations [4]. - As of Q3 2025, the formulation pipeline includes 22 projects, with 8 approved and 9 submitted for approval. The CDMO business has onboarded over 10 high-quality domestic and international clients, adding more than 30 new service projects [4]. - The formulation business is expected to maintain rapid growth in the future [4]. Investment Recommendation - The company has established a one-stop CDMO platform covering small molecules, peptides, conjugates, and formulations, serving major global pharmaceutical companies and achieving localized R&D in the US, Japan, and Germany [5]. - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 966 million, 1.128 billion, and 1.303 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 59.4%, 16.8%, and 15.4% respectively [5]. - The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 16, 14, and 12 for 2025-2027. Given the company's growth prospects and strong order visibility, a target price of 26.64 yuan is set, with an initial "recommend" rating [5].