九州药业的业务结构和未来增长预期如何？ 九州药业是一家从仿制药向创新药服务转型的典型中国医药企业。公司成立于 1973 年，1985 年进入制药领域，2008 年开始布局 CDMO（合同开发与制造 组织）业务，并于 2014 年上市。通过收购诺华苏州工厂及美国工厂等资产， 公司实现了海内外产能协同。2023 年设立新加坡海外管理总部，2024 年在日 本、德国等地布局研发平台。目前，公司全球化服务能力持续升级。 公司的核 心收入和利润来源是 CDMO 业务。2025 年上半年，该业务实现收入 22.91 亿 元，同比增长 16.27%，毛利率为 41%。自 2008 年以来，公司在 CDMO 领 域深耕近 20 年，实现了从临床前到商业化项目的全流程覆盖。截至 2025 年 上半年，公司项目管线数量从 2019 年的 378 个增至 1,214 个，其中已上市商 业化品种 38 个，临床三期项目 90 个，临床一二期项目超过 1,000 个。 九州 药业的主要客户包括诺华、罗氏、辉瑞等大型跨国公司（MNC），其中诺华依 制剂业务包括制剂 CDMO 和自研仿制药，截至 2025 年前三季度，全球 高附加值领域的 ...

风险提示： 1、CDMO订单进度不达预期；2、大客户依赖风险；3、原料药产品价格下行。 免责声明 根据《证券期货投资者适当性管理办法》及配套指引，本资料仅面向华创证券客户中的金融机构专业投资者，请勿对本资料进行任何形式的 转发。若您不是华创证券客户中的金融机构专业投资者，请勿订阅、接收或使用本资料中的信息。 本资料难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。感谢您的理解与配合。 摘要 九洲药业从特色原料药/中间体起家，依靠多年技术积累和客户资源优势，公司以小分子为底座、 TIDES为增量的CDMO平台正进入"验证产能释放+订单后端化"的收获期，有望驱动新一轮成长。 CDMO业务：成长主引擎，项目漏斗结构健康，订单能见度高 。 公司CDMO业务以成熟的小分子药 物技术平台为根基，覆盖创新药从临床前CMC到商业化生产的全生命周期服务，深度嵌入诺华、罗 氏、艾力斯等国内外龙头药企供应链，核心项目如诺欣妥、瑞博西利持续贡献收入，合作产品伏美替 尼的快速放量有望为CDMO业务带来持续增量。公司原料药CDMO项目管线丰富（截至2025H1，已上 市38个、III期90个、I/II期1086个），驱动收入稳健增长；同时，公 ...

诺华面临的也是一众跨国药企需要面对的。多家MNC在面对如今下沉市场投入产出比不平衡后，选择战略调整。2024 年，阿斯利康拆分呼吸、消化及自免业务线，优化基层人力配置，礼来则将糖尿病县域团队及两款肝癌成熟药商业化 运营整体外包给本土伙伴，缩减覆盖，集中资源开展创新药研发。 从重到轻，跨国药企的战略调整势必会影响行业格局。不过，这场战略收缩并不代表县域故事走到终点，过去几年 MNC在基层体系建设中发挥的作用，将产生持续影响，在政策的辅助下更是本土药企把握的关键时期。 跨国药企在华的战略调整，依旧在继续。这一次轮到了县域市场。 曾经在广袤的县域市场，投入大量人力、财力的诺华，也决定"撤退"了。关于"诺华中国县域团队将整体解散，最后工 作日为12月31日"的消息传出后，诺华中国迅速回应，自2026年1月1日起调整县域业务运营模式，同时强调"对县域患 者的承诺不变"。 这意味着，自2021年起，覆盖近1000个县域市场的项目终止了。当然，按照诺华的口径，这是调整模式，而不是退出 县域市场。 毕竟，这个市场足够广袤。某种程度上，解散自建县域团队，与MNC在集采、竞品压力下，转让那些专利过期原研药 的底层逻辑一致。 面对 ...

Group 1 - Novartis has been actively pursuing acquisition deals over the past year to strengthen its pipeline in response to patent expirations of key drugs like heart failure therapy, Kymriah [1][2] - On October 26, Novartis announced a proposed cash acquisition of Avidity Biosciences for approximately $12 billion to enhance its treatment portfolio for rare muscle diseases [1] - Avidity's latest market capitalization is close to $6.7 billion, and Novartis has completed nearly $20 billion in potential acquisition deals over the past year [1] Group 2 - Recent acquisitions by Novartis include: - $1.1 billion for gene therapy company Kate Therapeutics in November last year [2] - $3.1 billion for Anthos Therapeutics to enhance its cardiovascular treatment line in February [2] - $1.7 billion for Regulus Therapeutics for a kidney disease therapy in April [2] - Up to $1 billion agreement with Matchpoint Therapeutics for oral drugs targeting inflammatory diseases in July [2] - $1.4 billion acquisition of Tourmaline Bio for a cardiovascular treatment drug in September [2] - These acquisitions are aimed at addressing the patent expiration crisis of key drugs, with Novartis's stock price increasing approximately 34% this year, leading to a market capitalization exceeding $275 billion [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating for the company with a target price of 25.30 CNY for the next six months [5][7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 4.16 billion CNY and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 748 million CNY in the first three quarters of 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 4.92% and 18.51% respectively [2][3]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.29 billion CNY and a net profit of 222 million CNY, with year-on-year increases of 7.37% and 42.30% respectively, driven by stable order deliveries from core clients and stabilizing raw material prices [2][3]. - The company is building a leading global CDMO service platform, deeply serving major pharmaceutical companies like Novartis, with a significant number of projects in various clinical stages [3]. - The company has seen stable growth in sales of its specialty raw materials, with prices gradually stabilizing, indicating potential marginal improvements in its raw material business [4]. Financial Summary - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are expected to be 977 million CNY, 1.12 billion CNY, and 1.24 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 61.3%, 14.5%, and 10.4% respectively [5][11]. - The estimated EPS for 2025 is 1.10 CNY per share, with a PE ratio of 23 times [5][11]. - The company's total market capitalization is approximately 18.44 billion CNY, with a share price of 20.73 CNY as of October 15, 2025 [7].

Group 1: Small Molecule CDMO Business - The company focuses on technological innovation to build a leading global CDMO platform for innovative drugs, serving major pharmaceutical companies like Novartis [1] - The sales of the company's Noxintin project raw materials have significantly increased, with sales growing from $507 million in 2017 to $7.822 billion in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 47.83% [1] - In the first half of 2025, sales reached $4.618 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.27% [1] Group 2: Peptide Conjugate CDMO Services - The company has established a TIDES division to expand peptide conjugate drug and small nucleic acid technology platforms, providing comprehensive CDMO services from preclinical research to commercial production [2] - The company is actively expanding its peptide production capacity, with the second phase of peptide capacity construction initiated by the end of 2024, including the expansion of OEB5 level high-activity workshops [2] Group 3: API Business - The company is strategically positioning itself in the market by focusing on specialty APIs in areas such as anti-infectives, central nervous system drugs, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, and hypoglycemic agents [3] - Sales of anti-infective APIs increased from 292.46 tons in 2021 to 325.32 tons in 2024, with a CAGR of approximately 3.61% [3] - Sales of central nervous system APIs grew from 863.34 tons in 2021 to 1003.08 tons in 2024, with a CAGR of approximately 5.13% [3] - Sales of non-steroidal APIs rose from 298.93 tons in 2021 to 368.45 tons in 2024, with a CAGR of approximately 7.22% [3] - Sales of hypoglycemic APIs increased from 328.26 tons in 2021 to 362.66 tons in 2024, with a CAGR of approximately 3.38% [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 921 million yuan, 1.052 billion yuan, and 1.158 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth of 52.0%, 14.2%, and 10.0% respectively [4] - Based on the average valuation of comparable A-share listed companies, a PE ratio of 23 times is assigned for 2025, with an expected EPS of 1.04 yuan per share, leading to a target price of 23.92 yuan per share in six months [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating to the company [5] Core Views - The company is focused on building a leading innovative drug CDMO platform centered on technological innovation, providing comprehensive services to global pharmaceutical companies [13][21] - The sales of the company's key product, Entresto, have shown significant growth, with sales increasing from $507 million in 2017 to $7.822 billion in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 47.83% [49] - The company is expanding its capabilities in peptide conjugates and small nucleic acid technologies, enhancing its TIDES business [2][50] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company specializes in small molecule drugs, peptide drugs, conjugated drugs, and small nucleic acid drug R&D and production, offering a one-stop solution from preclinical CMC to commercialization [13] - The management team possesses international experience and a strong background in pharmaceuticals, which supports the company's expansion in the innovative drug CDMO sector [17] 2. Business Segments Small Molecule CDMO - The company has established a leading technology platform to support global pharmaceutical companies, particularly in supplying raw materials for key products like Entresto [3][49] Peptide Conjugate CDMO - The TIDES division is actively expanding its peptide production capacity, with significant investments made to meet growing customer demands [2][50] API Business - The company has strategically positioned itself in the market for specialty APIs, including anti-infectives, CNS drugs, NSAIDs, and antidiabetic drugs, with stable sales growth across these categories [3][55] 3. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 921 million, 1.052 billion, and 1.158 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with respective growth rates of 52.0%, 14.2%, and 10.0% [4][62] - Revenue is expected to grow from 5.635 billion yuan in 2025 to 6.711 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a steady increase in demand for its services [62] 4. Market Dynamics - The demand for CDMO services is anticipated to recover due to ongoing investments in innovative drug development, particularly in oncology, hypertension, and weight loss sectors [35] - The company has established long-term partnerships with major pharmaceutical firms, which provides a solid foundation for future growth [41]

Market Review - The CITIC Pharmaceutical Index increased by 3.91%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.82 percentage points, ranking second among CITIC's 30 primary industries [5] - The top ten stocks by increase included: Borui Pharmaceutical (42.35%), Lifespring Pharmaceutical (41.68%), and Nanjing New Pharmaceutical (34.95%) [4][5] - The bottom ten stocks by decrease included: *ST Suwu, *ST Weiming, and Haobo Pharmaceutical, with declines ranging from -16.82% to -31% [4][5] Sector Insights and Investment Strategy - The pharmaceutical sector is currently undervalued, with public funds (excluding pharmaceutical funds) having low allocations to this sector. The outlook for the pharmaceutical industry in 2025 remains optimistic due to macroeconomic factors and the growth potential of major products [9] - In the innovative drug sector, there is a shift from quantity to quality, emphasizing differentiated products and internationalization. Companies that can deliver profitable products are expected to perform well [9] - The medical device market is seeing a recovery in bidding volumes, particularly in imaging equipment, and there are ongoing updates in home medical devices supported by subsidy policies [9] - The innovation chain (CXO + life sciences services) is expected to see a rebound in overseas financing and a bottoming out in domestic financing, indicating a potential for high profit elasticity in the long term [9] Industry and Company Events - The 11th batch of national procurement products was officially released, including 55 varieties, with a total hospital sales amount of 32.772 billion yuan for 2024, averaging 5.96 million yuan per product [16][15] - The procurement list has seen a reduction of 7 products compared to the previous batch, with a total of 492 products included in the first eleven batches [15][16] - The impact of the procurement on domestic companies is limited, as the sales contribution of affected products to total revenue is relatively small [18] - The procurement process has clarified selection criteria, which may reduce disputes over certain products and improve company valuations over time [24][25]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry is "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - Overall revenue growth for pharmaceutical companies has slowed down, with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk showing significant increases of 45% and 18% respectively in Q1 2025, while other companies like GSK and Merck faced low single-digit growth or declines [3][5] - The U.S. drug price reform and uncertain macroeconomic environment are impacting the industry, with the Trump administration's executive order promoting "Most Favored Nation" pricing potentially reducing the pricing power of large pharmaceutical companies [3][7] - The next five years will see several blockbuster drugs facing patent expirations, prompting pharmaceutical companies to pursue business development (BD) transactions to enhance revenue and fill pipeline gaps [3][13] Summary by Sections 01 Overview of Q1 2025 Performance - The top 15 pharmaceutical companies had a combined R&D expenditure of $31.8 billion in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.6% [8] 02 Revenue and Guidance - Eli Lilly reported Q1 2025 revenue of $12.7 billion, a 45% increase year-on-year, with a full-year guidance of $58.0 billion to $61.0 billion [5] - Pfizer's revenue decreased by 6% to $13.7 billion in Q1 2025, with a full-year guidance of $61.0 billion to $64.0 billion [6] 03 Drug Price Reform and Macro Environment - The Trump administration's executive order aims to provide U.S. patients with "Most Favored Nation" pricing, which could pressure drug prices downward [7] - A proposed budget plan by the Republican party includes significant cuts to Medicaid, potentially impacting pharmaceutical revenues [7] 04 Upcoming Patent Expirations - Several key products are approaching patent expiration, including Eli Lilly's Tirzepatide and JNJ's Invega Sustenna, which could lead to increased competition and revenue challenges [13][14] 05 Recent Business Development Projects - Notable recent BD transactions include JNJ's acquisition of IntraCellular for $14.6 billion to enhance its pipeline in mental health treatments [15][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The chronic heart failure (CHF) market has significant potential, particularly for the innovative drug JK07, which is recommended for continued focus [3][4] - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to benefit from multiple positive growth factors, including the transition from generic to innovative drugs, increasing international market capabilities, and the aging population driving demand for chronic disease treatments [4][6] Summary by Sections 1. CHF Market Potential and JK07 - The CHF market is vast, with existing treatment methods having considerable room for improvement, particularly for new mechanism drugs [9] - Current CHF medications primarily alleviate symptoms, and there is a need for drugs that can directly improve myocardial cell function [9] - The innovative drug JK07, designed to target NRG-1, shows promising early clinical data and is expected to be a leading product in the CHF market [9][24] 2. Industry Perspective - The report emphasizes the importance of innovation, international expansion, and addressing the needs of an aging population as key themes for the industry [4][6] - Domestic innovation in pharmaceuticals is reaching a scale where several companies are beginning to reap the rewards of their R&D investments [4] - The report highlights the increasing importance of AI in the pharmaceutical sector, which is expected to unlock new growth opportunities [4][6] 3. Key Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on innovative pharmaceutical companies such as Xinlitai, Keren Pharmaceutical, and Kexing Biotech, as well as companies involved in medical devices and AI healthcare solutions [6]