Core Viewpoint - Tencent Holdings is currently experiencing a tug-of-war around the 500 HKD mark, with the stock price at 507 HKD, indicating a technical stalemate [1] Technical Analysis - The stock is barely above the MA10 at 499.91 HKD but is constrained by the MA30 at 506.84 HKD, showing mixed indicator performance [1] - The overall technical indicators suggest a "sell" signal with a strength of only 9 points, while the bullish-bearish strength indicator shows a "buy" signal [1] - The RSI is at 51, indicating a neutral zone, and a 2.8% five-day volatility reflects a strong market wait-and-see atmosphere [1] Key Support and Resistance Levels - Key support is at 487 HKD, with a strong support zone at 470 HKD; resistance is at 518 HKD, and a breakthrough could challenge 535 HKD [3] - The current probability of an upward movement is 54%, indicating a balance between bullish and bearish forces [3] Product Performance - UBS bull certificate (69944) has performed well, surging 49% in two days with the underlying stock up 1.19%, showcasing high leverage characteristics [3] - HSBC bull certificate (69321) also performed strongly, increasing by 44% [3] - For call options, Bank of China call certificates (13873 and 29579) recorded increases of 16% and 12%, respectively [3] Investment Options - Investors with a bullish outlook can consider Bank of China call certificate 29579, which offers a leverage of 14.8 times with the lowest premium among similar products [6] - For those expecting significant upward movement, Bank of China call certificate 13873 provides a leverage of 17.8 times, although its premium is slightly higher but still reasonable [6] - For investors preferring bull certificates, UBS bull certificate 69944 offers an actual leverage of 18.4 times with a low premium [6] Hedging Options - For cautious investors, Citibank put certificate 15235 offers a leverage of 22.3 times with a relatively low premium, making it a primary choice for bearish outlooks [10] - For expectations of significant downturns, Societe Generale bear certificate 60438 provides a high leverage of 30.6 times with a recovery price set at 522 HKD [10] - UBS bear certificate 61324 also features a leverage of 30.6 times, with a recovery price of 520 HKD, providing a good risk-return ratio [10]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Holdings (00700) is currently experiencing a volatile trading pattern, with the latest price at 504 HKD, reflecting a 1.69% increase. The stock is above the 10-day moving average but faces resistance from the 30-day moving average, while the 60-day moving average provides significant support. The mixed technical indicators suggest uncertainty in the short-term price movement [1]. Technical Analysis - Key support levels to watch include 488 HKD (Support 1) and 471 HKD (Support 2) if a breakdown occurs. Resistance levels are at 519 HKD (Resistance 1) and 536 HKD (Resistance 2). The probability of an upward movement is estimated at 56%, but the 5-day volatility is only 2.2%, indicating a strong market wait-and-see sentiment [2]. Product Performance Review - On July 9, when Tencent's stock rose by 1.19%, related derivatives showed strong performance. The Bank of China call warrant (29579) had a notable two-day increase of 22%, while another call warrant (13873) rose by 18%. This demonstrates the leverage effect of call warrants in a moderate upward market [5]. Recommended Products - For call warrants, the Bank of China call warrant (29579) is highlighted, with an exercise price of 560.5 HKD and a leverage of 14.5 times, offering excellent cost-effectiveness. Investors seeking higher leverage may consider the Bank of China call warrant (13873) with a leverage of 17.2 times. For put warrants, the Bank of China put warrant (17569) and UBS put warrant (16669) offer leverage of 14.3 times and 16 times, respectively, with exercise prices at 447.8 HKD and 443.13 HKD, where the Bank of China put warrant has the lowest implied volatility, providing better risk control [8]. Selected Bull and Bear Products - Among bull products, HSBC bull warrant (69321) and UBS bull warrant (69944) are attractive, offering leverage of 20.2 times and 19 times, with redemption prices set at 485.8 HKD and 484 HKD. The UBS bull warrant's low premium makes it a preferred choice for bullish investors. For bear products, the Societe Generale bear warrant (60438) and UBS bear warrant (61324) provide impressive leverage of 29.6 times, with redemption prices at 522 HKD and 520 HKD, suitable for aggressive investors expecting a pullback in Tencent's stock [11].