港股點評 2025年8月26日9:30 a.m 恒指升 234 點，滬指升 57 點，標普 500 跌 27 點 DeepSeek 發布 V3.1 新模型，採用專為「即將發布下一代國產晶片」設計的精度 格式，港股在科技股帶動下上升。恒指高開 100 點，初段升幅曾收窄至 35 點見 25,140 點後再度向上，尾市曾升 244 點一度高見 25,349 點，全日升 234 點或 0.9%，收 25,339 點；國指升 105 點或 1.2%，收 9,079 點；恒生科技指數升 149 點或 2.7%，收 5,647 點。大市全日成交總額 2,855.84 億元。 人民銀行 25 日公開市場開展 2,884 億元人民幣七天期逆回購操作，操作利率持 平於 1.4%。有 2,665 億元逆回購到期，單日淨投放 219 億元。同日以固定數量、 利率招標及多重價位中標方式，開展 6,000 億元 MLF 操作，期限為一年。人民 幣兌美元中間價上調 160 點至 7.1161，創七個月以來最大升幅。A 股三大指數 高開高走。滬指再創約十年高，全日以高位收報 3,883 點，升 57 點或 1.5%，成 交額 1.36 萬 ...

永豐金證券亞洲研究部晨訊 2025/8/21 | 麥嘉嘉 | 研究部主管 | avis.mak@sinopac.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 張雪婷 | 研究部經理 | samantha.cheung@sinopac.com | | 林仲全 | 研究部資深專員 | kobe.lin@sinopac.com | 1 永豐金證券亞洲研究部晨訊 永豐金證券亞洲研究部 -今日市埸焦點及策略 今日市埸主要焦點 股市及產品投資策略 2 • 美股回調｜科企估值憂慮升溫，標指連跌四日 • 十年債息下行｜美國10年期債息跌至4.275厘 • A股升浪｜受流動性改善、政策預期升溫、居民資金入市與科技創 新板塊強勁表現等多重利好因素推動 • 兩融餘額（融資融券總額）持續攀升｜兩融餘額突破2.1萬億元人 民幣，創三年新高，反映投資人風險偏好提升及市場活躍度增加 • A股日股ETF ｜ A股、日經創高，可部署A股、日股ETF短線操作 • A股布局主軸｜以「品質成長＋主動管理＋主題輪動」為布局主軸 • 結構性產品｜選用具Airbag或低參考價型掛鈎商品對沖市況急劇波動 • 策略主軸｜分散、多元資產組合，靈活調整 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to challenge the 26,000 point mark due to stable economic performance in mainland China and improved corporate earnings, particularly in heavyweight technology stocks [2] - The market is currently active with a positive risk appetite, as evidenced by the lively trading across various sectors [2] Macro Focus - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 128.7 billion yuan, maintaining the interest rate at 1.4% [9] - The National Bureau of Statistics plans to deploy pilot projects for data industry clusters, indicating a focus on optimizing industrial layout and fostering new growth drivers [9] - The U.S. PPI for July rose by 3.3%, exceeding expectations, which may influence future interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve [10] Corporate News - JD Group reported a 49% year-on-year decline in adjusted profit for Q2, attributed to losses in its food delivery business, although total revenue increased by 22.4% [11] - NetEase's Q2 revenue grew by 9%, with adjusted profit rising by 22%, but both figures fell short of market expectations [11] - China Telecom's net profit for the first half of the year increased by 6%, with an interim dividend up by 8% [11] - Geely's interim profit fell by 14%, but the company raised its annual sales target to 3 million vehicles [11] - CK Hutchison's basic profit increased by 11% in the interim period, while Cheung Kong Property's profit dropped by 27% [11] Sector Insights - Technology stocks are expected to see valuation improvements following better-than-expected earnings from leading companies [8] - The smartphone equipment sector anticipates the launch of the iPhone 17 by Apple on September 9 [8] - The biotech sector may benefit from adjustments to the commercial insurance catalog for innovative drugs, facilitating the market entry of high-value products [8] International Market Outlook - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in July, indicating a cautious approach towards future rate cuts amid economic uncertainties [5] - The trade war has slowed down oil demand growth, with OPEC+ increasing supply, which may limit the upward movement of international oil prices [5]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) faces short-term resistance at 25,735 points, with limited corporate profit improvement and a lack of strong economic stimulus from mainland China [2] - The market remains active with a positive risk appetite, as capital rotates among different sectors [2] - The U.S. and China have agreed to extend the 90-day tariff truce, easing trade tensions [2] Sector Focus - Key market focus includes the U.S. MBA mortgage application index, Germany's July CPI, and earnings reports from Tencent, JD.com, Lenovo, and Cheung Kong [3] - The People's Bank of China has introduced a loan interest subsidy scheme for the service industry, with a maximum loan amount of 1 million yuan [7] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has intervened in the currency market, buying over 7 billion HKD to defend the currency peg [7] Corporate News - Galaxy Entertainment reported a mid-term dividend that exceeded expectations, but adjusted EBITDA fell short [4] - Tencent Music's adjusted profit increased by 37% in Q2, surpassing expectations, with total revenue rising by 17.91% [9] - Meituan is expanding its overseas delivery platform Keeta to Middle Eastern cities [9] - China Unicom's half-year profit rose by 5%, meeting expectations, with total revenue increasing by 1.45% [9] Economic Indicators - The U.S. July CPI rose by 2.7%, lower than expected, while core CPI increased by 3.1%, higher than anticipated [7] - The U.S. budget deficit for July increased to 291 billion USD, with customs tariff revenue reaching a record high [8] - OPEC has raised its global oil demand forecast for next year, indicating a tightening market outlook [8]

Company Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares of 高偉電子 (1415) at a current price of 29.86 HKD, with a short-term target price of 34.10 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 17.6% [7][9] - The company is expected to enter the rear camera module business in the second half of 2024, which is anticipated to drive revenue and profit growth in the first half of 2025, potentially leading to an earnings surprise [9] - The management's outlook on products in the smart driving and robotics sectors is also seen as a potential catalyst for growth [9] Valuation Insights - The current price corresponds to a forecasted P/E ratio of 17.6x for FY25E and 13.3x for FY26E, with FY26E valuation being 30% lower than the 5-year average [9] - The market expects a compound annual growth rate of 29.8% in revenue and 38.6% in net profit from FY24 to FY27E [9] Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index has shown resilience, recovering above the 10-day and 20-day moving averages, closing at 25,081 points with a trading volume of 245.7 billion HKD [5] - The report notes that the overall market sentiment remains positive, with active trading across different sectors despite limited improvement in corporate earnings [5][6] Macro Focus - China's exports in July increased by 7.2%, surpassing expectations, although exports to the U.S. fell by 21.7%, indicating potential challenges ahead [10] - The People's Bank of China is expected to continue implementing liquidity measures to maintain a stable financial environment, including a recent 700 billion RMB reverse repurchase operation [10] Industry Developments - The report highlights the upcoming World Robot Conference and the anticipated launch of Apple's iPhone 17, which may impact the mobile device sector [6] - Companies like 中芯 (0981) and 華虹 (1347) have reported mixed earnings, with 中芯's quarterly profit down by 19.5% and 華虹's profit growth falling short of expectations [11]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the US ISM services index fell to 50.1 in July, indicating a near stagnation in the services sector [9][11] - The report notes that the US trade deficit narrowed to $60.2 billion in June, the lowest level in 2023, with imports decreasing by 3.7% and exports dropping by 0.5% [11] - AMD reported adjusted earnings of $899 million for Q2, which fell short of expectations, although the company anticipates AI revenue to reach at least several billion dollars for the year [11][24] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July was reported at 49.2, indicating a continued deterioration in the business environment, although the rate of decline has slowed [13] - The Chinese services PMI rose to 52.6 in July, the highest in 14 months, surpassing expectations [13] - China Tower's net profit for the first half of the year increased by 8% to 5.8 billion yuan, with revenue rising by 2.8% to 49.6 billion yuan [13] Group 3 - Lenovo is positioned to benefit from a wave of corporate upgrades as Windows 10 support ends in October 2025, with IDC forecasting a 4.3% increase in commercial PC shipments [21] - Alibaba's Hema retail platform is shutting down its membership store business, indicating a strategic shift to focus on its core operations [13] - The report recommends buying shares of Lenovo at a target price of $12.72, citing its leading market share in AI PCs [21]

Key Points - The report highlights a significant surge in Apple's stock price, which has positively influenced the US stock market, particularly the technology sector [8][10] - Approximately 80% of S&P 500 companies exceeded market expectations in terms of EPS and revenue, driven mainly by strong earnings in the financial and communication services sectors [8][10] - The report notes an increase in US Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield rising by 10.2 basis points to 4.298% [8][10] - The report suggests a diversified credit bond strategy to manage interest rate and inflation volatility, with an average maturity of 5 to 8 years [8] - A multi-factor alpha model, sector rotation model, and event-driven model are recommended for stock selection [8] - The report recommends bullish structured products targeting strong stocks like Apple and Nvidia to capture short-term gains [8] Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 81 points or 0.18%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq increased by 0.73% and 1.21%, respectively [10] - The report indicates that the US economy shows signs of slowing down, with traders increasing bets on potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [10] - President Trump signed an executive order imposing a 25% additional tariff on goods from India, raising the total tariff rate to 50% [10] - The report mentions that Apple has committed to investing $100 billion in US manufacturing over the next four years, increasing its total investment to $600 billion [10] Company Focus - XPeng Motors reported a record delivery of 36,717 vehicles in July 2025, a year-on-year increase of 229%, indicating a strong growth trajectory [20] - Nine consecutive months of deliveries exceeding 30,000 units suggest a clear turning point in profitability and valuation recovery for XPeng Motors [20] - Nine Holdings' Q2 2025 results showed a revenue increase of 2.5% in the footwear manufacturing sector, with a shipment volume growth of 4.1% [20] - The report highlights that Vobile Group is a leader in digital content copyright protection and monetization, with expectations of AI-related revenue reaching tens of millions of dollars by 2025 [20] Economic Data - China's exports for July are estimated to grow at an annual rate of 5.6%, while imports are expected to decline by 1% [18] - The trade balance for China in July is projected at $104.8 billion, with foreign exchange reserves at $3.281 trillion [18] - In the US, the non-farm productivity for Q2 is estimated to increase by 2%, with initial jobless claims for the week ending August 2 expected at 222,000 [18]

Market Performance - Hang Seng Index fell by 403 points, or 1.6%, closing at 24,773 points[1] - Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 42 points, or 1.18%, closing at 3,573 points[2] - S&P 500 decreased by 23 points, or 0.4%, closing at 6,339 points, marking the third consecutive day of decline[2] Currency and Economic Indicators - Hong Kong Monetary Authority bought HKD 39.25 billion during New York session due to a weak HKD[1] - People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of CNY 283.2 billion at a steady rate of 1.4%[2] - July's official manufacturing PMI in China fell to 49.3, below expectations[2] Real Estate and Corporate Performance - Top 100 real estate companies in China reported total sales of CNY 2.07 trillion in the first seven months, a year-on-year decline of 13.3%[4] - Internet and related services companies in China generated revenue of CNY 961.3 billion in H1, a year-on-year growth of 3.1%[4] - Sinopec expects H1 2025 net profit to be between CNY 20.1 billion and CNY 21.6 billion, a year-on-year decline of 39.5% to 43.7%[6] Automotive Sector - XPeng Motors delivered 36,717 smart electric vehicles in July, a year-on-year increase of 229%[7] - Cumulative deliveries exceeded 800,000 units as of July, with a total of 233,906 units delivered in the first seven months, marking a 270% year-on-year growth[7]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index faces short-term resistance at 25,735 points, with limited corporate profit improvement and a lack of strong economic stimulus from mainland China [2] - Active trading in the Hong Kong market indicates a relatively positive risk appetite, with capital rotating among different sectors [2] - The U.S. and China have initiated a new round of trade negotiations, agreeing to extend the 90-day tariff truce reached in mid-May [2] Macro Focus - China's official manufacturing PMI for July decreased to 49.3, falling short of expectations and indicating contraction for four consecutive months [11] - Hong Kong's GDP for Q2 is estimated to grow by 3.1%, surpassing expectations, while retail sales growth in June was below expectations at 0.7% [12] - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in July, with expectations of two rate cuts this year, totaling 0.5 percentage points [6] Company News - Tencent Holdings (0700) is leveraging gaming as a key driver for breakthroughs in AI technology [5] - Prosus has initiated a reduction of its stake in Meituan (3690), cashing out nearly 2 billion yuan in the past two weeks [5] - XPeng Motors (9868) reported a 2.3-fold increase in July deliveries, setting a new monthly record [5] - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (0386) issued a profit warning, expecting a drop of at least 40% in first-half earnings [5] Stock Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24,773, down 1.6%, with a year-to-date increase of 23.5% [7] - The average daily trading volume in Hong Kong's stock market increased by 82% year-on-year, reaching 2,402 billion [12] - The number of new IPOs in Hong Kong surged, with 42 new listings raising a total of 107.1 billion, a sevenfold increase compared to the previous year [12]

Core Insights - The report highlights a positive market sentiment following the trade agreement between the US and EU, contributing to new record highs in US stock indices [9][11] - The report notes that while US stock indices are reaching new highs, there are warnings from Goldman Sachs about accumulating short-term risks in the market [11] - The report discusses the ongoing trade negotiations between the US and China, emphasizing the importance of outcomes for market stability [11][14] Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed up by 173 points (0.7%), while the Hang Seng Tech Index recorded three consecutive declines [14] - The report indicates that Hong Kong's exports have increased for 16 consecutive months, with June's export value reaching HKD 417.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.9% [14] - The report mentions that the MSCI China Index's 12-month target has been raised from 85 to 90 points, indicating an 11% upside potential [14] Company Recommendations - The report recommends buying Kowloon Warehouse Holdings (1997) due to its stable cash flow from core assets in Hong Kong [22] - It suggests that AIA Group (1299) is benefiting from increased demand from mainland visitors and local market recovery, with a notable growth in new business value [22] - Prologis, Inc. (PLD) is highlighted as a leading industrial logistics REIT with a market capitalization exceeding USD 100 billion [24] Economic Data - The report outlines key economic data releases, including US wholesale and retail inventory figures for June, and the FHFA House Price Index for May [21] - It notes that the US Treasury Department estimates a debt issuance of USD 1.007 trillion for the third quarter, an increase of USD 453 billion from previous estimates [11]