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中芯國際「買入」信號強,邊類衍生品能抓緊短線機會?
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-25 21:51
Core Viewpoint - Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) has applied for a patent that may enhance semiconductor device performance and reliability, potentially supporting its stock price increase [1] Technical Analysis - Current technical indicators suggest a "buy" signal with a strength of 12, indicating a positive medium to long-term trend, although several oscillators are in a "neutral" state with an RSI of 62, reflecting market divergence on short-term trends [1] - The first support level for SMIC is at 52, with further support at 50.5; the first resistance level is at 62, with a higher resistance at 63.3. The stock price is currently between these levels, close to the upper resistance, indicating a potential short-term decision point [3] - The system assesses a 54% probability of upward movement, with a recent 5-day volatility of 14.2%, suggesting significant speculative opportunities [3] Product Performance - On August 20, 2025, SMIC's stock performed well, with various structured products showing substantial gains: Societe Generale's bull certificate (59918) increased by 84%, UBS's bull certificate (65489) by 82%, and other UBS call options by 45% and 34%, demonstrating the leverage effect of these products [3] Investment Products - For investors bullish on SMIC, UBS call option (15627) is noteworthy with a leverage of 4.9 times and an exercise price of 58.93, while another UBS call option (13340) has a leverage of 3.9 times and an exercise price of 58.05 [5] - For bearish investors, HSBC put option (19411) has a leverage of 2.1 times with an exercise price of 49.81, and Bank of China put option (19573) has a leverage of 1.9 times with an exercise price of 49.79 [6] Leveraged Products Overview - UBS bull certificate (65489) has the lowest premium with an actual leverage of 5.2 times and a redemption price of 47, while Societe Generale's bull certificate (59918) has the highest actual leverage of 5.1 times with a redemption price of 46.8 [7] - For bearish positions, Societe Generale's bear certificate (57405) has the lowest premium with an actual leverage of 9.3 times and a redemption price of 62.5, while Citigroup's bear certificate (56634) has the highest leverage of 9.2 times with a redemption price of 62 [8]
中芯走勢不明朗,窩輪牛熊如何部署?
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-19 05:45
Core Viewpoint - Semiconductor company SMIC (00981) announced a strategic partnership with a domestic semiconductor design firm to jointly develop advanced process chips, but market reaction has been cautious [1] Technical Analysis - As of the latest update, SMIC's stock price is at 51.2 HKD, with a temporary decline of 1.16% and a trading volume of 1.094 billion HKD, indicating relatively calm capital flow [1] - Technical indicators suggest a "neutral" signal with a strength of 8, showing no clear direction in the overall trend; multiple moving averages indicate a "sell" signal, and mid to long-term trends appear slightly weak [1] - The RSI value is at 58, reflecting significant short-term market divergence without a clear trend [1] - Support levels are identified at 48.8 HKD and 46.4 HKD, while resistance levels are at 53.5 HKD and 55.7 HKD; the current stock price is positioned between these levels, with a system-assessed upward probability of 55% [1] Product Performance - On August 15, SMIC's stock fell by 3.22%, while related warrants and certificates showed significant leverage effects, with increases of 19% for Societe Generale's bear certificate and 10% for Citigroup's put certificate shortly after [3] - Several warrants are highlighted for potential investment: UBS call warrants (15627) with a leverage of 5.1 times and an exercise price of 58.93 HKD, and UBS call warrants (13340) with a leverage of 4 times and an exercise price of 58.05 HKD [5][6] - For bearish positions, Citigroup's put warrant (14760) has a leverage of 3.9 times with an exercise price of 45.9 HKD, while UBS's put warrant (13698) has a leverage of 3.8 times with an exercise price of 45.88 HKD [5][6] Investment Products - For bullish sentiment on SMIC, UBS bull certificates (65489) offer a high actual leverage of 9.6 times with a low premium and a redemption price of 47 HKD; Societe Generale's bull certificate (59918) has a leverage of 9.4 times and the lowest premium [7][8] - For bearish sentiment, HSBC's bear certificate (63299) has the highest actual leverage of 10.6 times with a low premium, while Societe Generale's bear certificate (67110) has the lowest premium and an actual leverage of 12.8 times [7][8]