Core Insights - The article discusses the strategic maneuvering of China and India in the global oil market, particularly in relation to Russian oil imports amid external pressures [3][4][6][11]. Group 1: India's Position - India, previously the second-largest buyer of Russian oil, has halted purchases due to pressure from the U.S., with state-owned refiners suspending orders and seeking alternatives [3][7]. - The Modi government faces a dilemma between maintaining a significant $86.5 billion export market to the U.S. and the potential savings from discounted Russian oil [7][11]. - India's short-term focus on immediate economic benefits reveals a lack of strategic autonomy, making it vulnerable to external pressures [6][11]. Group 2: China's Strategy - In contrast, Chinese companies swiftly secured 15 batches of Russian oil, negotiating a $1 discount per barrel, which could save up to $10 million on a large scale [4][9]. - China's increased imports of Russian oil reduce its dependence on Middle Eastern oil and strengthen its energy partnership with Russia, with a 43% year-on-year increase in pipeline oil imports expected by Q1 2025 [8][9]. - Over 60% of Russian oil transactions are now settled in RMB, enhancing its international standing and mitigating risks associated with dollar-denominated transactions [8][9]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - China's role as a "rescue buyer" for Russian oil has shifted the balance of power in energy negotiations, allowing it to gain unprecedented leverage [9][11]. - The price of Urals crude oil in Western ports is approximately $65 per barrel, while Chinese firms are securing discounts, indicating a significant cost-saving opportunity [9]. - The competition for the Chinese market has prompted Saudi Aramco to consider offering more favorable pricing and extended payment terms to retain its customer base [9][12]. Group 4: Long-term Implications - The article emphasizes that the current situation reflects a redistribution of market power, with emerging economies like China gaining more pricing authority and options in the global energy landscape [13][15]. - The strategic choices made by China and India highlight the importance of balancing immediate economic interests with long-term strategic positioning in international relations [11][15].

要说清楚这事儿，得先看看印度为啥缩手了。主要是特朗普在背后施压，因为美印一直没谈成关税协议，特朗普就拿印度买俄油说事，从8月底开始要对印 度进口的俄油加征25%的"二级关税"。这税一加，印度炼油厂可受不了。 最近能源市场出了件挺有意思的事：印度不敢买俄罗斯石油了，中国炼油厂立马出手，以优惠价格拿下了上千万桶俄油。路透社说，咱们这个月已经买了15 批俄罗斯原油，每批70万到100万桶不等，这些油预计10到11月就能运到。这波操作，既是精明的生意，也藏着不小的战略考量。 莫迪政府现在两头为难：既不想在贸易协议上让步开放农业市场，又不想白白多交25%的税。所以从7月底开始，印度国有炼油厂就暂停买俄油了，现在手 里的订单最多只到9月份，之后就没着落了。而且俄罗斯给印度的折扣最近也收紧了，过去能享受到每桶3.25美元的优惠，现在少了不少，成本敏感的印度 炼油厂自然得重新算账。 印度一收手，中国炼油厂马上抓住机会。咱们主要买的是原本供应给印度的乌拉尔和瓦兰杰原油，这些油因为印度减少采购，俄罗斯正想找新买家。中国企 业趁机砍价，每桶比原来便宜了1美元，这可不是小数目——要知道乌拉尔原油最近价格在65美元左右，这1美元折扣就 ...