行 业 及 产 业 石油石化 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 2025 年 10 月 12 日 俄罗斯炼厂停产规模创新高，乌拉 尔原油出口增加 看好 ——石油化工行业周报(2025/10/6—2025/10/12) 相关研究 证券分析师 刘子栋 A0230523110002 liuzd@swsresearch.com 邵靖宇 A0230524080001 shaojy@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 丁莹 A0230125070005 dingying@swsresearch.com 联系人 丁莹 (8621)23297818× dingying@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 本期投资提示： 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 行 证 券 - ⚫ 俄罗斯炼厂停产规模创新高，乌拉尔原油出口增加。自 2024 年 8 月以来，俄罗斯炼油 厂停产规模创下历史新高，截至 9 月底，高达 38%的一次加工产能（约 33.8 万吨/日） 处于停产状态。约 ...

美国的关税威慑，为啥没吓住印度？ 8月的时候，美国还挺硬气，特朗普政府直接对印度输美商品加征50%惩罚性关税，明说就是因为印度 一直买俄油，连白宫贸易顾问彼得・纳瓦罗都在《金融时报》上撰文，骂印度这是游说集团赚黑心钱， 破坏孤立俄罗斯的计划。 最近全球能源圈有个挺有意思的连锁反应，俄罗斯原油一打折，印度立马重启采购，美国之前喊得挺凶 的关税威胁，好像一下子就软了。 这事儿看着就是低价买货的常规操作，其实里面藏着美、印、俄三方的小心思。 但你要是细瞅这关税的范围就会发现，它主要针对纺织、电子零部件这些领域，印度输美能源相关产品 占比还不到5%。 这威慑就是雷声大，雨点小，没打到印度的痛处。 印度也不傻，根本没顺着美国的话头走，反而玩起 了利益置换。 一边说我买油只看价格，不掺地缘政治，一边直接给美国提条件，让我买伊朗、委内瑞拉的油，把关税 降到15%，再开放你们的乳制品市场，我还能多买点美国能源。 你还别说，这招真管用，美国嘴上没松口，暗地里已经同意印度通过第三国渠道买委内瑞拉原油了。 其实想想也明白，美国不敢真把印度逼急。现在亚太格局里，美国还需要印度帮忙制衡，要是因为原油 这点事儿把关系闹僵，反而得不偿失。 ...

大国博弈下的能源转向：印度被迫退却，中国稳坐钓鱼台 2025年8月初，一则看似不起眼的公告，却标志着全球能源版图的一次微妙重塑：印度国有炼油巨头 们，那个曾经每日吞噬高达180万桶俄罗斯原油的庞然大物，悄然中止了与莫斯科的新石油采购合同。 这个曾经占据俄罗斯海运石油出口量三分之一强的"最大买家"，一夜之间调转了航向。 印度石油部长哈迪普·辛格·普里不得不亲自进行痛苦的成本核算：继续沉溺于俄油的折扣，其所能节省 的利润，将远远被美国加征的关税所吞噬。面对美国"不合作就加税"的最后通牒，掌握着全国超过60% 炼油产能的印度国有炼油企业，不得不集体踩下刹车。 就在几个月前，印度政府还沉浸在廉价俄油带来的红利中。得益于此，莫迪政府在2024财年节省了超过 250亿美元的能源开支，让印度经济引擎轰鸣。然而，特朗普政府的一纸关税威胁，犹如重锤般击碎了 这场"甜蜜交易"。美国宣布对印度价值200亿美元的出口商品加征25%的关税，精准打击了印度的纺织 与制药两大支柱产业。 俄罗斯的石油和天然气收入在2025年同比暴跌41%。其核心产品——乌拉尔原油，在2025年3月平均价 格仅为59美元/桶，4月更跌至54.8美元/桶，远低 ...

在乌东前线千钧一发之际，美国、欧洲和乌克兰联合向俄罗斯发起"第二战线"的极限施压，将目标精准圈定在俄罗斯能源创收领域。 与早些时候用远程无人机打击俄罗斯境内军事目标和大城市不同，最近几个月乌军把袭击对象锁定为俄境内的炼油厂。 在靠近前线的克里米亚，9月份不得不实施汽油限量销售政策——所有司机单次购买92号和95号车用汽油不得超过30升。 克里米亚州长表示，正协调资源推动供应恢复，计划未来几天内解除对95号汽油的配给限制，若俄罗斯本土炼油厂能及时恢复发货，92号汽油 库存有望在一周内回归正常水平。 对此，乌总统泽连斯基强调，打击俄罗斯石油产业是迫使其重返谈判桌的关键手段，"最有效的制裁就是俄罗斯炼油厂、终端设施、油库燃起 火焰"。 根据彭博社9月底的分析，尽管俄境内出现一定程度的加油困难现象，但其原油出口甚至创下新高，不排除莫斯科正咬紧牙关保出口创收。 彭博社据此推断，仅靠制裁和袭击炼油厂的行动不足以让俄罗斯屈服，但它确实日益加剧了这场持久战的痛苦程度。 值得注意的是，美国有进一步支持乌克兰打击俄罗斯境内纵深目标的倾向——此前特朗普和万斯表示将向乌克兰提供射程最高达2500公里的战 斧巡航导弹。 不过匿名美国军 ...

话说这事儿吧，从2022年俄乌冲突爆发后，俄罗斯石油出口就成了全球能源市场的焦点。西方国家一堆制裁，G7带头设了个每桶60美元的价格上限，目的 是卡俄罗斯的脖子，让他们卖不出高价油。 可俄罗斯没慌，转头就把石油大头卖给了东方，中国和印度成了主力买家。结果呢，中国买的油价在70到80美元一桶晃悠，印度那边却能拿到35美元左右的 折扣货。 这数字一对比，搁谁心里都得嘀咕：中俄不是铁哥们儿吗，怎么这价格差了快一倍？其实啊，这里面门道不少，不是简单的不够意思，而是牵扯到油的品 质、交易方式和战略布局。 先说说背景，免得大家云里雾里。2022年12月5日，那价格上限正式落地，欧盟和美国带头不让俄罗斯油进他们的港口，还威胁谁买谁就挨罚。俄罗斯石油 出口一下子从欧洲转向亚洲，中国进口量从2022年的8000多万吨蹿到2023年的1亿吨出头，2024年更破了1.08亿吨，占俄罗斯总出口的近一半。 印度也猛，2023年进口了1.6亿吨，2024年还保持高位，但到2025年上半年开始降温，每天从200万桶滑到100万桶左右。 价格上，印度起步猛，2022年折扣能到15到20美元一桶，2023年均价35美元左右；中国那边稳定在70 ...

俄罗斯的石油出口一下子从欧洲的奶牛变成没人要的库存，堆积如山。产能没问题，问题是卖不出去，这就闹出了所谓的"石油危机"。不是缺油，而是油太 多，运不出去，卖不动。 转头一看，亚洲成了救命稻草，中国和印度这些大买家赶紧补位，进口量蹭蹭上涨。可亚洲市场哪有那么好啃？买家精明着呢，尤其是印度，砍价砍得俄罗 斯直冒冷汗。 中东那边呢，沙特这些老江湖稳坐钓鱼台，成本低、供应稳，俄罗斯想抢饭碗，难上加难。整个局面，俄罗斯夹在中间，进退两难，日子过得紧巴巴的。 先说说这危机的来龙去脉。俄罗斯石油储量全球第六，探明储量800亿桶左右，产能加资源加起来，妥妥的能源巨头。 过去，欧洲是最大买家，2021年俄罗斯对欧出口原油和成品油接近每天450万桶，占总出口一半多，现金流稳得一批。 说起俄罗斯的石油，本来是全球能源圈的硬通货，产量稳居前列，出口量也一直吊打不少对手。可谁成想，2022年那场冲突一爆发，西方直接封杀，欧洲市 场大门砰的一声关上了。 可冲突一打响，欧盟2022年12月禁运海运原油，G7还设了每桶60美元的价格上限。俄罗斯石油进不了欧洲，只能硬着头皮找新出路。 亚洲市场就这么浮上水面，中国进口量稳增，印度更是从2021 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the significant price drop of Russian oil due to Western sanctions and the shift in export strategies towards Asia, particularly China and India [2][4] - Following the sanctions, Russia's oil exports to China reached a record 107 million tons in 2023, accounting for nearly 20% of China's total imports [2][6] - However, by 2025, the situation changed with a 10% decrease in Russian oil exports to China in the first seven months, driven by low oil prices and increased U.S. pressure on buyers [6][8] Group 2 - The discount of Urals crude oil against Brent benchmark expanded to over $20 per barrel, indicating the urgency of Russian exporters to maintain market share [4][10] - Despite the low prices, logistical and payment issues, along with U.S. sanctions, have made it difficult for Chinese buyers to increase imports significantly [10][12] - China's oil reserves are nearing capacity, limiting the ability to import more Russian oil, while domestic demand growth has slowed [12][14] Group 3 - The article highlights that while Russia's economy relies heavily on energy exports, the dependence on China has become a vulnerability, especially with the ongoing geopolitical tensions [14] - China's energy strategy is shifting towards diversification, reducing reliance on Russian oil, while increasing imports from other suppliers [12][14] - The future of Russian oil exports remains uncertain, as the balance between U.S. sanctions and China's energy needs continues to evolve [14]

Core Viewpoint - India's fluctuating oil import strategy from Russia raises questions about its motivations and the influence of U.S. pressure [1][3][10] Group 1: India's Oil Import Dynamics - In August 2025, India's total oil imports decreased by 4%, while imports from Russia increased by 5.6%, raising Russia's share of India's oil imports from 33% to 37% [3][6] - The Indian government appears to be using a strategy of reducing imports to negotiate better prices from Russia, despite U.S. threats of tariffs [4][6] - Indian refiners are primarily focused on acquiring oil at lower prices, and the recent reduction in imports was a tactic to leverage negotiations with Russia [4][6] Group 2: U.S. and Global Market Reactions - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen criticized India for profiting from the resale of Russian oil, claiming it generated at least $16 billion for India's wealthiest families [3][6] - If India were to stop purchasing Russian oil, it could benefit China, which is already increasing its imports of Russian oil, potentially leading to a shift in market dynamics [7][9] - Middle Eastern oil producers may fill the gap left by India in the Russian oil market, leading to a significant market reshuffle [9][10] Group 3: Price Dynamics and Market Implications - The discounts on Russian oil have decreased from $30-$35 per barrel to around $10, making it less attractive for India to negotiate for further reductions [6][10] - China's increased purchases of Russian oil, particularly Ural and Varandey grades, indicate a strategic move to capitalize on lower prices due to sanctions [6][9] - The overall market for Russian oil remains robust due to its competitive pricing, suggesting that India’s potential withdrawal could backfire economically [10][11]

Group 1 - The U.S. government is pressuring India to reduce its oil trade with Russia, as the price advantage of Russian crude oil for Indian buyers continues to grow [1][3] - Following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, India has significantly increased its imports of Russian crude oil, becoming one of the key importers [3][4] - Despite U.S. tariffs raising the costs for Indian refiners importing Russian oil, India has not compromised and has strengthened its relationship with Russia [3][4] Group 2 - India's oil minister defended the country's purchases of Russian oil, arguing that it helps stabilize global energy supply and prevents excessive oil price surges [4] - Indian refiners briefly paused Russian oil purchases due to logistical issues but quickly resumed as the price of Urals crude oil became more favorable [4] - Reports indicate that Indian state-owned and private refiners received a total of 11.4 million barrels of Russian oil in just six days, averaging nearly 1.9 million barrels per day [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant operational crisis at Russia's key oil export hub, Ust-Luga port, due to ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks, leading to a drastic reduction in oil export capacity and exposing vulnerabilities in Russia's energy infrastructure [3][5]. Group 1: Impact on Oil Exports - Ust-Luga port's daily oil export volume has plummeted to 350,000 barrels in September, a 50% decrease from its normal capacity of 700,000 barrels [3]. - The operational crisis was triggered by a precise strike on the Ulyanovsk pumping station on August 4, which is crucial for transporting oil to Ust-Luga [5]. - The damage to the pumping station is more severe than expected, with full restoration anticipated to take at least 45 days due to the need for special replacement parts [5]. Group 2: Regional Supply Chain Disruption - The disruption of the "Friendship" pipeline's eastern supply line has been ongoing for 26 days, affecting oil supply to refineries in Belarus, Slovakia, and Hungary [6]. - Slovakia's Ministry of Economy announced a trial supply rate of 800 cubic meters per hour, only 30% of the normal flow [6]. - Hungary's energy reserves are reported to last only 17 days under normal consumption [6]. Group 3: Emergency Response and Cost Implications - In response to the crisis, approximately 40% of the oil originally scheduled for export from Ust-Luga is being rerouted by rail to Novorossiysk and Primorsk ports [8]. - The volume of oil tanker arrivals at these ports surged by 120% in late August, but the rerouting has increased logistics costs by $5 to $7 per barrel [8]. - Despite these efforts, it is projected that Russia's total oil exports will still decrease by 12.5% in September [8]. Group 4: Broader Implications for the Energy Market - Analysts indicate that the attacks have led to an 18% reduction in Russian refining capacity, raising concerns about potential price volatility in the European energy market as winter approaches [13]. - The ongoing conflict has escalated into a "shadow war" targeting energy infrastructure, with Ukraine expanding its strike capabilities [13].