黑海之滨的新罗西斯克港，俄罗斯的乌拉尔原油价格一路狂泻，跌到了每桶36美元的历史低点。接连的降价之际，目前的国内油价已经 将国际基准布伦特原油的近24美元的差价"降为零"，甚至都快成"白菜价"了。近来曾经以疯狂的扫货姿态广受关注的印度炼油商也纷纷 喊停其疯狂的购油行为，而中国的油轮却在悄悄的靠港将大批的高品质的原油都锁定了下来。这场由美国制裁引发的能源地震，正搅动 全球格局——普京的反击、中亚国家的"抱团"，让这场暗战愈发扑朔迷离。 中亚国家趁机"掀桌"了，乌兹别克总统提出组建"中亚共同体"，拉拢哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦等邻国，计划联合建设基础设施、解决 水资源争端。 哈萨克斯坦冻结国内燃料价格，吉尔吉斯斯坦甚至尝试从阿塞拜疆进口能源——这些举动分明在减少对俄罗斯的依赖。更耐人寻味的 是，吉尔吉斯斯坦6月首次向中国出口催化柴油，打破了能源贸易的旧格局。 这场博弈的背后，是能源定价权的生死争夺。美国页岩油商将盈亏平衡线压到40美元以下，欧佩克则咬定增产计划，两边像两辆对开的 列车，把俄罗斯夹在中间。摩根大通估算，俄罗斯三分之一的海运原油（每日140万桶）困在油轮上无人问津，预算收入同比暴跌27%。 但俄罗斯宁可 ...

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/11/25 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB BRENT 1- dated bre | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | 2025/11/18 | 60.74 | 64.89 | 65.20 | -0.74 0.46 | -4.15 | 0.15 | 199.93 | 19.08 | 270.11 | 48.56 | | 2025/11/19 | 59.44 | 63.51 | 64.66 | - 0.51 | -4.07 | 0.22 | 193.21 | 17.64 | 263.57 | 47.19 | | 2025/11/20 | 59.00 | 63.38 ...

全球能源市场正在经历一场剧烈的结构性调整，俄罗斯作为曾经的能源巨头，正面临前所未有的挑战。 新罗西斯克港的拥堵现状，直观地反映了俄罗斯能源出口的困境。港口工作人员透露，近期抵达的油轮中，近三分之一装载的原油无法及时运出，只能暂时 作为浮式储存。这些油轮原本计划将原油交付给印度、欧洲等地的买家，但由于美国的制裁，买家纷纷退缩，船东也因担心被列入制裁名单而拒绝接单。目 前，俄罗斯的海上库存已经积压超过3000万桶，相当于全球每日原油消费量的3%。 国际能源署的数据描绘了一幅严峻的画面：2025年全球原油市场将出现每日50万桶的过剩，而2026年这一数字可能飙升至400万桶。这种结构性过剩的压 力，正不断挤压俄罗斯在国际能源市场上的定价权。一个显著的例证是，俄罗斯原油的折价幅度已扩大至每桶23.5美元，触及2023年3月以来的最高点。与 此同时，美国的原油出口量强势反弹，重新回到2024年夏季的水平，圭亚那、巴西等新兴产油国也纷纷加大对亚洲市场的出口力度，同比增幅高达40%。 俄罗斯的财政收入高度依赖能源出口，占比高达55%。然而，油价的持续下跌已经对其财政造成了沉重打击，今年前10个月的预算收入同比下降了20%。 ...

Core Insights - The significant drop in Russian Urals crude oil prices to $36 per barrel and liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices being offered at a 40% discount indicates a severe crisis in Russia's energy exports, driven by sanctions and market pressures [1][3][5]. Group 1: Price Dynamics - By the end of 2025, the price difference between Russian Urals crude oil and Brent crude oil reached $23.5, with Urals priced at $36 and Brent at approximately $60 [1]. - Russian LNG prices for exports to China were reported to be at a 60% discount compared to market prices, allowing China to save over 1.4 billion yuan monthly on energy procurement [1]. Group 2: Sanctions Impact - The U.S. imposed a financial blockade on Russia's energy sector in October 2025, targeting major oil companies and freezing their global assets, which severely restricted Russia's ability to conduct energy trade [3]. - The sanctions led to a significant reduction in shipping and insurance support for Russian oil, resulting in approximately one-third of Russia's maritime crude oil (around 1.4 million barrels per day) being stranded [3]. Group 3: Market Shrinkage - Following the U.S. sanctions, India, a major buyer of Russian oil, ceased imports, and the EU aimed to reduce Russian oil imports to nearly zero, exacerbating the crisis [5]. - Attacks on Russian energy infrastructure have further diminished domestic refining capacity by 30%, crippling the transportation chain [5]. Group 4: Economic Pressures - Russia's energy sector faces immense pressure to maintain production despite losses, as halting operations incurs higher long-term costs due to equipment depreciation and maintenance [7]. - Energy revenues account for 35% of the Russian federal budget, making it critical for sustaining the economy and military expenditures [10]. Group 5: China's Position - China has emerged as a preferred buyer of Russian energy, leveraging its diversified energy supply sources to negotiate lower prices [12]. - The Chinese strategy includes prioritizing discounted LNG from Russia while focusing on higher-quality Siberian ESPO crude oil, leading to a doubling of imports from Russia in August 2025 [12]. Group 6: Infrastructure and Trade Changes - China is tying energy procurement to the development of Arctic shipping routes and expanding pipeline systems, which could significantly increase gas supply from Russia [14]. - The settlement mechanism for energy transactions between China and Russia has shifted, with over 65% of transactions now conducted in yuan and rubles, reducing reliance on the dollar [14]. Group 7: Global Market Reactions - The drop in Russian energy prices has prompted Middle Eastern oil producers to lower their prices to maintain competitiveness in the Asian market [16]. - European countries are facing internal conflicts regarding energy imports from Russia, with some nations increasing imports despite sanctions [16]. Group 8: Regional Developments - Central Asian countries are seeking to reduce their economic dependence on Russia, with initiatives to build regional infrastructure [18]. - Russia is attempting to establish new export routes through the International North-South Transport Corridor, although progress is hindered by financial and political challenges [18].

大家好，我是阿凯瞰天下。 俄乌这仗打了四年，早就不是俄军单方面"推塔"的局面了。 乌克兰现在是一边硬扛前线进攻，一边反手盯着俄罗斯的软肋打，再加上国际社会的实打实支援，俄罗斯是能源赚钱的路被堵，国内的日子也不好过，战局 的风向其实已经悄悄变了。 屋漏偏逢连夜雨，近期西伯利亚还发生了重大天然气管道爆炸，火光冲天几百米高，周边的工厂全被迫停了产。 一、精准打击戳软肋，俄能源经济扛不住 你发现没，乌克兰现在的反击真是"打蛇打七寸"，专挑俄罗斯最疼的地方下手。 以前还只是在前线对峙，现在倒好，每天夜里都有乌军的无人机、导弹往俄罗斯本土飞，不管是炼油厂、发电厂这种显眼的大目标，还是藏在偏远地方的变 电站，能打就绝不放过。 这些打击看着零散，实则直接掐断了俄罗斯的"钱袋子"——能源出口。有数据摆在这，10月份俄罗斯化石燃料出口额跌到了全面入侵以来的最低点，日均才 6.09亿美元，比9月份还少了4%。 更惨的是油价，俄罗斯的乌拉尔原油现在每桶才卖36美元，比国际基准价低了足足23.51美元，说白了，这价格连开采和运出去的成本都不够，纯属亏本买 卖。 为啥会这么惨？一方面是乌克兰的打击让能源设施老出问题，另一方面是美国的制裁 ...

Core Insights - The international oil market is experiencing significant volatility, with Russian oil prices dropping to a low of $36 per barrel, the lowest since March 2023, indicating a severe impact on Russia's economy due to sanctions and reduced demand [1][3][7] Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - India has reduced its oil purchases from Russia, with major refiners announcing they will not accept shipments after November 21, fearing U.S. sanctions [2][3] - In contrast, China has increased its oil imports from Russia, doubling the volume in August and securing additional shipments, focusing on higher-quality ESPO crude oil, which is more cost-effective in refining compared to the Ural crude purchased by India [5][7] Group 2: Economic Implications for Russia and Ukraine - Russia's economy heavily relies on energy exports, with one-third of its maritime crude oil currently unsold, leading to financial strain [7][10] - Ukraine is in urgent need of financial support, with the EU estimating it will require at least $83 billion by 2026, primarily for military expenses [9][10] Group 3: Geopolitical Shifts in Central Asia - Central Asian countries, led by Uzbekistan, are seeking to form a "Central Asian Community" to enhance regional cooperation and reduce reliance on external powers, taking advantage of Russia's weakened position [11][12][14] - The initiative aims to address regional issues such as water scarcity and infrastructure development, although political unity remains a challenge due to differing national interests [12][14] Group 4: Broader International Relations - The interplay between Russian sanctions, EU financial commitments to Ukraine, and Central Asian countries' strategic realignments illustrates the complex dynamics of international relations, where interests often outweigh alliances [16][17]

原油日报 2025 年 11 月 19 日 原油现货市场日报 | | | | 2025.11.19 制裁期限临近，俄罗斯石油货物竞相运往印度。据物流 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 数据，随着临近美国11月21日实施制裁，至少770万桶与两家被制裁 | | | | | 的生产商有关的俄罗斯旗舰乌拉尔原油将抵达印度海岸。 | | | | | 2025.11.18 受美国制裁期限临近影响，原油运输量再创新高，市场 | | | | | 交易者正密切关注海上原油供应量。Vortexa有限公司数据显示，上 | | 研究员： | | | 周全球近14亿桶原油或已运抵目的地，或滞留在海上浮式储油设施。 | | 童川 | | 贸易物流 | 2025.11.18 由于 11 月 14 日乌克兰袭击造成的破坏限制了俄罗斯 | | 期货从业证号： | | | 新罗西斯克港一个关键码头的吞吐能力，该港口的原油装载量比原计 | | F3071222 | | | 划晚了两到三天。 | | 投资咨询从业证号： | | | | | Z0017010 | | | 2025.11.18 俄罗斯石油供应与价 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the dynamics of oil prices influenced by geopolitical risks and supply-demand factors, highlighting the recent fluctuations in international oil prices due to events in Russia and the Middle East [1][2][3] Group 1: Oil Price Movements - International oil prices experienced a slight decline, with West Texas Intermediate crude settling at $59.91 per barrel and Brent crude at $64.20 per barrel, both down by 0.30% [1] - Following an attack on Russia's Novorossiysk port, oil prices had previously surged over 2%, indicating the sensitivity of oil prices to geopolitical events [1][2] Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - Recent geopolitical events, including Ukraine's attack on the Novorossiysk port and Iran's seizure of a tanker, have injected new risk premiums into oil prices amid global supply surplus concerns [1][3] - U.S. President Trump's comments on potential military action in Venezuela and sanctions against countries engaging with Russia add to the geopolitical tension affecting oil markets [2][3] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The market is currently characterized by weak supply and demand, leading to a lack of clear drivers for oil prices, which are expected to remain volatile [2] - Goldman Sachs predicts that while a supply surplus may pressure prices in the near term, demand growth could tighten the market by 2027, leading to a potential price recovery [2] Group 4: Soft Power in Oil Markets - The article emphasizes the importance of soft power in the oil market, suggesting that future price movements will depend more on geopolitical strategies and less on traditional supply-demand dynamics [3][4] - Key competitive factors in the future oil market include the ability to set technical standards, financial rule restructuring, and managing alliances among oil-producing countries [4]

Core Viewpoint - The conflict between Poland and Hungary within the EU has escalated into an open confrontation, driven by deep divisions over Russian oil supply, support for Ukraine, and energy security [1][3]. Group 1: Poland's Position - Poland's foreign minister has publicly called for Ukraine to destroy the pipeline supplying Russian oil to Hungary, highlighting Poland's strong stance against Russian energy dependence [3][11]. - Poland's rejection of extraditing a Ukrainian citizen accused of damaging the "Nord Stream" pipeline reflects its national interests and a broader anti-Russian sentiment [5][19]. - Poland views the "Friendship" pipeline as a geopolitical threat, as it allows Russia to maintain stable foreign exchange income, which supports its military actions in Ukraine [15][19]. Group 2: Hungary's Position - Hungary relies heavily on the "Friendship" pipeline for its energy needs, with approximately 80% to 90% of its oil imports coming from this source, making it resistant to cutting ties with Russian oil [13][15]. - The Hungarian government emphasizes its geographical limitations, stating that it cannot easily switch to alternative energy sources without incurring significant costs and logistical challenges [15]. - Hungary's foreign minister criticized Poland's calls for action against its energy supply, framing them as support for terrorism [6][11]. Group 3: EU Dynamics - The ongoing dispute illustrates a significant divide within the EU regarding energy policy and responses to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, with Eastern European countries like Poland advocating for a tougher stance while Western nations prefer to avoid escalating tensions with Hungary [16][19]. - The internal EU conflict extends beyond energy issues, as differing views on defense spending and security highlight the fragmentation within the union [17][19]. - The situation underscores the tension between the EU's aspirations for political integration and the reality of member states prioritizing their national interests, leading to a fragile sense of unity [19].

Group 1: U.S.-India Relations and Oil Imports - President Trump claimed that Indian Prime Minister Modi assured him that India would stop purchasing Russian oil, although the Indian Foreign Ministry denied any such conversation took place [1] - India has accelerated its imports of Russian oil, averaging 1.8 million barrels per day in the first half of October, an increase of approximately 250,000 barrels per day compared to September [2] - Russian oil constitutes about 34% of India's total oil imports, driven by attractive discounts and high margins on Russian crude [2] Group 2: Trade Negotiations and Tariffs - Ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and India aim to reach an agreement next month, with reported narrowing of differences on trade issues [4] - The U.S. imposed a 50% import tariff on Indian goods starting in late August, which has led to a significant drop in India's exports to the U.S., down 20% year-on-year in September [5][6] - India's trade deficit widened to $32.15 billion in September, the highest in 13 months, exacerbated by the decline in exports [7] Group 3: Economic Impact and Future Projections - Estimates suggest that India's exports to the U.S. could decline by 30% in the fiscal year ending March 2026, dropping from $86.5 billion to $60.6 billion [8] - The high tariffs are expected to adversely affect small and medium enterprises and farmers in India, as criticized by opposition leaders [8]