格隆汇8月27日｜智库Mind Money分析中心负责人Igor Isaev表示，考虑到俄罗斯石油的丰厚价格优势以 及印度国内对能源资源的需求，印度完全拒绝俄罗斯石油的可能性不大。Isaev称："鉴于'乌拉尔'原油 具有吸引力的价格，以及（印度）对能源资源的战略性需求，完全拒绝（俄罗斯石油）的情况不太可能 发生。印度更有可能在地缘政治与经济之间寻求平衡。" ...

8月26日，媒体报道称，印度将在特朗普加征关税前削减约20%的俄罗斯石油采购量。 印度在8月10日前后购买超2200万桶非俄罗斯石油，试图缓解制裁压力，随后由于俄罗斯将乌拉尔原油 折扣从每桶1美元提高到2.5美元，这巨大的利益促使印度继续俄罗斯达成新的交易。 报道称，印度的私营和国有炼油厂将把上半年平均日采购量从180万桶削减至140万至160万桶，用于10 月及以后的装运。 削减采购量的原因是美国对印度商品加征关税，该措施将于8月27日生效，将影响印度850亿美元的出口 产品，总计关税达到50%。 但随着加征关税的到来，印度务实的减少从俄罗斯进口量，以平息特朗普政府的怒火，至于印度最终会 继续减少还是增加俄罗斯石油购买，让我们拭目以待。 ...

Group 1 - China has successfully discovered a new shale gas field with proven reserves of 165 billion cubic meters, which is expected to enhance its energy production capabilities [1] - The discovery of this gas field, along with others in regions like Shandong and Chongqing, is part of China's efforts to optimize its energy structure and drive technological innovation [3] - Despite these advancements, China remains a major energy importer, relying on countries like Russia and Saudi Arabia to meet its energy demands [3] Group 2 - In response to U.S. pressure on India regarding Russian oil purchases, China has increased its imports of Urals crude oil from Russia, nearly doubling its daily imports to approximately 75,000 barrels since August [3][5] - This shift in energy sourcing is beneficial for Russia, as it helps mitigate the impact of U.S. sanctions and pressures on its energy exports [5] - The U.S. is facing challenges in re-establishing energy trade with China, especially after the imposition of tariffs that have disrupted previous energy cooperation [6][8] Group 3 - The U.S. energy sector, which has traditionally supported the Trump administration, is now at a disadvantage due to the loss of the Chinese market following tariff policies [6] - The U.S. has attempted to sell energy to traditional allies like the EU and South Korea, but these efforts have not compensated for the loss of the Chinese market [6] - China's current energy strategy, which includes both domestic production and increased imports from Russia, complicates U.S. efforts to re-enter the Chinese energy market [8]

印度，这个曾经的俄罗斯原油最大海运买家，在特朗普政府"美国优先"政策的阴影下，处境变得捉襟见肘。2025年8月6日，美国宣布对印度进口的俄罗斯石 油加征高达25%的"二级关税"，这无疑给印度采购俄罗斯原油增加了巨大的经济负担。印度炼油厂被迫踩下刹车，暂停新的采购计划，仅维持此前已签订的 合同。数据显示，印度8月份的俄罗斯原油进口量断崖式下跌，从日均207万桶暴跌至不足40万桶。曾经满载原油、计划驶向印度港口的俄罗斯油轮，如今却 彷徨于茫茫大海，亟待寻找到新的买家。 面对这一局面，中国的贸易商和炼油企业展现出敏锐的商业嗅觉和果断的决策能力。8月中旬，中国迅速敲定了15艘原本运往印度的油轮，总计超过1000万 桶的乌拉尔原油，计划在10月和11月交付。 为了给这批低价俄罗斯原油腾出空间，中国炼油厂甚至调整了进口策略，主动向沙特阿美提出减少9月份长期合同下的提货量。这并非中国需求降低，而是 俄罗斯原油在价格上的巨大优势。 这并非中国首次接手印度的"弃单"。在2023年和2024年，印度也曾因担忧美国制裁而临时暂停采购，中国炼油企业同样伸出援手，买下了那些无人问津的俄 罗斯原油。历史再次重演，彰显了中国在能源市场上的 ...

美国成功唬住印度，中方炼油厂火速出手，折扣价抢购千万桶俄油？ 而且另一方面，近来俄罗斯给印度出口的石油也收紧了价格优惠，在这个成本敏感的市场里，莫迪政府不得不权衡利弊，最终选择暂停进口以规避关税风 险。 石油可是硬通货，印度退出，俄罗斯的石油蛋糕自然有人要吃。趁着印度企业退出的真空期，中国炼油企业迅速行动。 路透社报道，今年8月，中国订购15批次俄罗斯乌拉尔原油，总规模达到1000多万桶，交付时间为10月到11月。而且喜人的是，这批石油的采购价格比印度 之前享受的折扣力度还要大，之前印度每桶是大约5%的价格优惠，而我们这一批采购的优惠直接来到了7.5%。 那我们为什么要加大采购这么多石油呢？ 首先从商业角度看，乌拉尔原油价格跌到三年低位，中国炼油厂通过调整采购结构降低成本。 关注国际局势的朋友应该知道，近来特朗普政府对印度再次打出关税牌，以印度采购俄罗斯石油的理由，要对其实施二级制裁，加征25%的关税，这样一 来，对印总关税达到50%。 这一套组合拳下来，可谓重创了印度能源战略。要知道，作为俄罗斯海运石油的最大买家，印度在上个月，日均进口量达到207万桶，占到俄油出口总量的 三分之一。 面对美国制裁威胁，印度 ...

中国精准出击，抢占俄油市场，印度承压退让：大国博弈中的能源智慧 8月1日，四艘满载俄罗斯原油的油轮滞留在印度洋上，价值高达3亿美元的货物面临无人问津的窘境。此前，印度曾是俄油的第二大买家，日进口量一度突 破200万桶，占其石油进口总量的近四成。然而，面对来自美国的强大压力，印度政府突然转变态度，三大国有炼油厂——印度石油公司、巴拉特石油公 司、印度斯坦石油公司几乎同时暂停采购俄油。炼油厂负责人无奈表示，现有订单最晚供应至9月，之后不得不另寻他法。 正当印度犹豫之际，中国企业以教科书般的速度迅速行动。8月，中国企业果断敲定15批次俄油订单，每批装载70万至100万桶。这些原油主要为原本供应印 度的乌拉尔和瓦兰杰品种，虽然质量稍逊于中国常用的ESPO原油，但经过与俄方谈判，中方成功将每桶价格下调1美元。千万桶规模的采购，仅此一项就节 省高达1000万美元。更重要的是，若印度持续减少采购，中国的议价权将进一步提升。 通过此次抄底行动，中国不仅获得了实惠，还在国际能源博弈中占据了更有利的位置。与印度在压力下的退让形成鲜明对比，中国此举究竟有何精明之处？ 然而，这种选择也暴露了印度在战略自主性方面的不足。面对外部压力， ...

与此同时，北京却上演了一出截然相反的"反转剧"。中国炼油商几乎在同一时间收到风控部门的通知："所有额度放开，有多少收多少！"山东地方炼油厂的 采购经理连夜飞往莫斯科，中石油甚至重启了尘封十年的西伯利亚输油管道调度协议。数据不会说谎：8月份中国装运的乌拉尔原油日均突破7.5万桶，比年 初暴涨两倍多！更令人震撼的是预订量——十月到十一月还有整整15船原油正在穿越北极航线！ 然而，平静之下暗流涌动。美国制裁的靴子最终落下，对印度能源命脉造成沉重打击。印度四大国营炼油厂（IOCL、HPCL、BPCL、MRPL）连夜召开紧 急会议，气氛凝重。印度斯坦石油公司的采购总监脸色铁青，当即宣布停止采购乌拉尔原油，转而紧急采购沙特原油作为替代。要知道，仅仅两个月前，他 们还沉浸在以折扣价购买俄罗斯石油带来的喜悦中，每日节省高达800万美元的成本。 制裁令一下，俄罗斯对印度的石油日出口量从118万桶断崖式下跌至不足40万桶，瞬间撕开了170万桶的巨大缺口，震动全球能源市场。 能源棋局：制裁下的弃子与赢家 2025年，一幕由美国制裁引发的能源格局巨变正在上演。起初，美国政府宣布对部分印度进口商品加征关税，市场随即对此保持高度警惕。尽 ...

Core Insights - The global oil market is undergoing significant changes, with China emerging as the only major buyer exempt from secondary tariffs on Russian oil, leading to a surge in low-priced Russian oil flowing to China [1][5][25] - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with the U.S., India, and Russia's interests intertwining, indicating a new international trade order [1][5] Group 1: Oil Trade Dynamics - In Q1 2025, Russian oil exports to China via pipelines surged by 43% year-on-year, reaching an average of 750,000 barrels per day [3][19] - Following the U.S. implementation of secondary tariffs on Russian oil, India faced a significant increase in tariffs, leading to a drastic reduction in its Russian oil imports from 1.18 million barrels per day to less than 400,000 barrels per day [5][7] - China's daily imports of Urals crude oil from Russia approached 75,000 barrels in August, nearly double the amount earlier in the year, with several coastal refineries placing new orders [7][19] Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - The price differential between Urals crude and Brent crude has widened, with the cost of Urals crude imported by China being over 15% lower than Brent prices [9][19] - Chinese refineries are rapidly expanding their profit margins and capturing market share in South Asia, the Middle East, and Europe due to the low prices of Russian oil [9][21] - The U.S. is cautious about imposing tariffs on China due to the deep economic interdependence between the two nations, which complicates the potential impact of sanctions [11][17] Group 3: Geopolitical Considerations - The U.S. secondary tariffs on India are seen as a warning against India's strategic autonomy in the global energy landscape, while the U.S. maintains a more restrained approach towards China [11][15] - The European Union has expressed concerns over potential reductions in Chinese refined oil exports, fearing a rise in energy prices [15][25] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and energy market dynamics are reshaping global supply chains and trade patterns, with China gaining significant influence [21][25] Group 4: Future Outlook - China's oil imports are projected to reach a historical high of over 600 million tons in 2025, while India is diversifying its energy sources to reduce reliance on Russian oil [19][25] - The global energy market is entering a new phase of multi-dimensional competition, with any actions taken by major players likely to trigger chain reactions [15][25] - The evolving energy landscape reflects a balance of power shift, with China leveraging its position to reshape global energy pricing and supply chains [21][25]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift of Russian oil exports towards Asian markets, particularly China and India, following Western sanctions due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. It highlights the significant price differences between the oil purchased by India and China, driven by various factors including oil type, transportation methods, and long-term strategic partnerships [1][3][4]. Price Discrepancy - India purchases Russian Ural crude oil at approximately $35 per barrel, while China pays around $80 per barrel for ESPO crude oil. This price difference is influenced by the quality of crude oil, with Ural being heavier and more sulfurous, leading to a lower price due to Western sanctions [1][3]. - Ural crude oil saw a discount of over $30 per barrel against Brent in mid-2022, stabilizing at $10-12 per barrel in 2023, allowing India to buy at an average price between $35 and $50 per barrel [1][3]. Oil Types and Quality - Ural crude oil is characterized as medium density, high sulfur, and high acid, making it harder to refine, while ESPO crude oil is light and low sulfur, better suited for China's industrial needs. ESPO prices are typically linked to Brent or Dubai benchmarks, with a premium of $3-5 per barrel in 2023 [3][4]. India's Oil Strategy - India's ability to purchase Ural crude at low prices is attributed to its weaker industrial base, lack of stringent quality requirements, and the ability to process and resell the oil for profit. Additionally, India's non-participation in Western sanctions and its large import volumes provide leverage for negotiating lower prices [3][4]. - From 2022 to January 2023, India's total oil exports increased by 50% to $78.5 billion, with India projected to surpass China as the largest importer of Russian oil by August 2024, importing over 2 million barrels per month [3][4]. China's Oil Strategy - China opts for higher-priced ESPO crude due to its advanced industrial system's demand for high-quality oil, the cost-effectiveness of refining, and the stability of pipeline transportation. Long-term contracts with Russia help mitigate the impact of international oil price fluctuations [4][6]. - The East Siberia-Pacific Ocean pipeline has a significant capacity, transporting nearly 80 million tons of oil in 2023, providing China with a reliable supply chain [4][6]. Market Dynamics - In May 2023, China and India together accounted for approximately 80% of Russia's oil exports, with China importing 47% and India 38%. Despite China importing a larger volume, it prioritizes oil quality and supply chain security [6][7]. - The article notes potential risks for India, including possible additional tariffs from Western nations on Russian oil purchases, which could increase import costs and reduce profit margins [6][7]. Long-term Implications - China's strategy of purchasing high-quality Russian oil is seen as a long-term approach to ensure supply chain security and meet industrial demands, while India's low-cost oil strategy may yield economic growth but carries greater risks [7]. - By 2025, it is projected that China and India will account for approximately 90% of Russia's oil export structure, reflecting a significant shift in the global oil market dynamics [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. measures to halt the purchase of Russian oil have created significant turbulence in the international energy market, leading to strong opposition from major energy consumers like China and India [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Legislative Actions - The U.S. government has enacted two binding laws since July 2025: the "2025 Sanctions on Russia Act" and the "Secondary Tariff Implementation Regulation," which impose punitive tariffs of up to 500% on countries continuing to purchase Russian energy [1]. - Despite the sanctions, U.S. companies imported over 12 million barrels of Russian oil in 2024 under special licenses, highlighting a double standard in the enforcement of these sanctions [3]. Group 2: Responses from China and India - In the first half of 2025, China imported 120 million tons of Russian oil, while India’s daily purchases exceeded 2.08 million barrels, demonstrating their commitment to energy autonomy [1]. - China has explicitly rejected energy procurement restrictions during the third round of U.S.-China negotiations and has conducted joint military exercises with Russia to strengthen energy cooperation [3]. - India has adopted a strategy of circumventing sanctions by increasing oil imports through private enterprises, with a 47% surge in Russian oil imports via Dubai [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Global Implications - The sanctions have accelerated the diversification of the energy system, with Russia signing currency settlement agreements with 15 countries, increasing the share of the yuan in Russian oil trade to 28% [4]. - The European Union is experiencing internal divisions, with countries like Germany and Hungary opposing further price caps on oil, fearing negative impacts on their manufacturing sectors [4]. - OPEC+ has adjusted its production strategy, with Saudi Arabia reducing daily oil production by 900,000 barrels for Q4 2025, contributing to a rise in Brent crude prices to the $86 range [4]. Group 4: Challenges to U.S. Energy Strategy - The U.S. energy ban faces legal challenges under WTO rules, economic backlash from allies, and political resistance from emerging economies, indicating a multi-faceted crisis for U.S. energy policy [4]. - The International Energy Agency predicts that non-dollar oil transactions could exceed 35% of total trade volume by 2026, further diminishing U.S. influence in the energy market [4].