生猪期货LH2605合约
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生猪:被动累库确认,现货阴跌持续
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-08 08:51
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - **Market Review (3.2 - 3.8)**: In the spot market, pig prices were weak. Henan's 20KG piglet price dropped to 29.8 yuan/kg from 30 yuan/kg last week, and the Henan live - pig price fell to 10.48 yuan/kg from 10.98 yuan/kg. The national 50KG binary sow price remained at 1559 yuan/head. The average national slaughter weight increased by 0.19% to 125.4KG. In the futures market, the LH2605 contract price of live - pig futures was weakly volatile, with a closing price of 11160 yuan/ton (down from 11485 yuan/ton last week). The basis of the main contract was - 680 yuan/ton [2]. - **Market Outlook (3.9 - 3.15)**: Spot prices are expected to remain weak. Due to the slow slaughter progress in February, supply is postponed. The passive inventory accumulation is hard to reverse, and the spot price is in the bottom - seeking stage. From the supply perspective, the supply of standard pigs will increase until April 2026. From the demand perspective, the pre - Spring Festival speculative demand was over - estimated, and the post - festival price decline led to more speculative demand, which further overdraws future demand. It is expected that the spot price will start to bottom out in mid - to late March. For the LH2605 contract, there may be short - selling opportunities after a macro - sentiment rebound, with a support level of 10000 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 12000 yuan/ton [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.行情数据 (Market Data) - Not elaborated in the given content other than the above - mentioned price and weight data 3.2.基差与月差 (Basis and Calendar Spread) - The basis this week was - 680 yuan/ton, and the LH2605 - LH2607 calendar spread was - 1020 yuan/ton [9]. 3.3.供给 (Supply) - The average slaughter weight this week was 125.5KG (up from 125.16KG last week). In December, pork production was 579 million tons, a 2.6% month - on - month decrease, and pork imports were 5.36 million tons, a 7.23% month - on - month decrease [12]. 3.4.价格 (Price) - Not elaborated in the given content other than the above - mentioned price data 3.5.需求 (Demand) - Not elaborated in the given content other than the information about speculative demand and slaughter volume changes