生鸡肉

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圣农发展:售价优势+成本下降,Q1盈利优势稳固-20250429
HTSC· 2025-04-29 07:15
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 19.41 RMB [7][8]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 4.115 billion RMB in Q1 2025, a year-over-year decrease of 2.38% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 15%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 148 million RMB, showing a significant year-over-year increase of 338% [1][2]. - The company's profitability is supported by a price advantage and a reduction in costs, with the average price of chicken in the industry dropping by 5.9% year-over-year, while the company's revenue only declined by 2.4% [2][3]. - The company has successfully reduced its comprehensive meat production costs by approximately 10% year-over-year, driven by improvements in self-researched breeding stock and operational efficiency [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 4.115 billion RMB, with a net profit of 148 million RMB, aligning with the performance forecast range [1]. - The company estimates its Q1 broiler meat business profit at around 85 million RMB, with a per-unit profit of nearly 0.6 RMB, while the industry faces losses of about 1.1 RMB per unit [2]. Cost Management and Sales Strategy - The company has restructured its sales channels and product strategies, leading to high revenue growth across various channels, including C-end retail, which saw over 30% year-over-year growth [3]. - The company continues to focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvements, which are expected to sustain the downward trend in comprehensive meat production costs [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains profit forecasts for the company, projecting net profits of 1.284 billion RMB, 1.643 billion RMB, and 1.890 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4]. - The estimated book value per share (BVPS) for 2025 is 9.03 RMB, with a price-to-book ratio (PB) of 2.15x for the same year [4].