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江苏新能(603693):来风偏弱导致25H1业绩承压,看好公司远期增长弹性
Huachuang Securities· 2025-08-28 12:38
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Jiangsu Xineng (603693) with a target price of 15.7 CNY, representing a 15% upside from the current price of 13.68 CNY [1][6]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 was under pressure due to weak wind conditions, but there is optimism regarding its long-term growth potential [1][6]. - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing focus on offshore wind energy and related policies, positioning it as a key player in the sector [6][6]. Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - Total revenue is projected to grow from 2,099 million CNY in 2024 to 3,484 million CNY by 2027, with a CAGR of 22.8% from 2026 to 2027 [2]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 417 million CNY in 2024 to 780 million CNY in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 34.4% in 2025 [2]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS is forecasted to rise from 0.47 CNY in 2024 to 0.88 CNY in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [2]. - **Valuation Metrics**: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 29 in 2024 to 16 in 2027, indicating improving valuation as earnings grow [2]. Operational Insights - **Performance in H1 2025**: - The company reported a net profit of 282 million CNY in H1 2025, a decrease of 3.62% year-on-year, while Q2 2025 saw a significant increase of 181.56% year-on-year [6][7]. - Revenue for H1 2025 was 1,054 million CNY, a slight increase of 0.48% year-on-year, with Q2 revenue growing by 25.47% [6][7]. - **Power Generation**: - Total power generation in H1 2025 was 1,783 million kWh, down 2.67% year-on-year, with on-grid power generation also declining by 2.76% [6][6]. - The company has a total installed capacity of 1.71 million kW, with significant contributions from onshore wind, offshore wind, and photovoltaic projects [6][6]. Strategic Developments - **Project Pipeline**: - The company is advancing several key projects, including a 1.55 million kW offshore wind project and various photovoltaic initiatives, which are expected to enhance future profitability [6][6]. - **Policy Environment**: - Recent government policies favoring deep-sea technology and high-quality development of the marine economy are anticipated to catalyze growth in the offshore wind sector [6][6].