证 券 研 究 报 告 三峡能源（600905）2025 年中报点评 推荐（首次） 短期业绩承压下滑，储备项目丰富支撑远期 成长弹性 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：霍鹏浩 邮箱：huopenghao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524030001 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 29,717 | 30,540 | 31,023 | 33,640 | | 同比增速(%) | 12.2% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 8.4% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 6,111 | 6,878 | 7,377 | 7,837 | | 同比增速(%) | -14.9% | 12.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.21 | 0.24 | 0.26 | 0.27 | | 市盈率(倍) | 20 | 18 | 17 | 16 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Jiangsu Xineng (603693) with a target price of 15.7 CNY, representing a 15% upside from the current price of 13.68 CNY [1][6]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 was under pressure due to weak wind conditions, but there is optimism regarding its long-term growth potential [1][6]. - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing focus on offshore wind energy and related policies, positioning it as a key player in the sector [6][6]. Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - Total revenue is projected to grow from 2,099 million CNY in 2024 to 3,484 million CNY by 2027, with a CAGR of 22.8% from 2026 to 2027 [2]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 417 million CNY in 2024 to 780 million CNY in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 34.4% in 2025 [2]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS is forecasted to rise from 0.47 CNY in 2024 to 0.88 CNY in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [2]. - **Valuation Metrics**: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 29 in 2024 to 16 in 2027, indicating improving valuation as earnings grow [2]. Operational Insights - **Performance in H1 2025**: - The company reported a net profit of 282 million CNY in H1 2025, a decrease of 3.62% year-on-year, while Q2 2025 saw a significant increase of 181.56% year-on-year [6][7]. - Revenue for H1 2025 was 1,054 million CNY, a slight increase of 0.48% year-on-year, with Q2 revenue growing by 25.47% [6][7]. - **Power Generation**: - Total power generation in H1 2025 was 1,783 million kWh, down 2.67% year-on-year, with on-grid power generation also declining by 2.76% [6][6]. - The company has a total installed capacity of 1.71 million kW, with significant contributions from onshore wind, offshore wind, and photovoltaic projects [6][6]. Strategic Developments - **Project Pipeline**: - The company is advancing several key projects, including a 1.55 million kW offshore wind project and various photovoltaic initiatives, which are expected to enhance future profitability [6][6]. - **Policy Environment**: - Recent government policies favoring deep-sea technology and high-quality development of the marine economy are anticipated to catalyze growth in the offshore wind sector [6][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the electricity and utilities sector [8] Core Viewpoints - The electricity and utilities sector demonstrates strong defensive characteristics and stable performance, with hydroelectric power showing consistent profitability [5][12] - The sector includes 225 listed companies, primarily state-owned enterprises, with significant contributions from thermal, hydro, and other power generation sectors [5][12] - In 2024, the sector's operating revenue reached 25,527.42 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.12%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2,081.10 billion, up 6.79% [17][41] - The financial cost rate of the sector continues to decline, enhancing profitability, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 6,243.77 billion in 2024, an increase of 11.75% [26][25] - The sector's dividend yield is positioned in the top third of the market, with a three-year average dividend payout ratio of 43.16% [34][53] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Stability and Defensive Characteristics - The electricity and utilities sector is characterized by stability and strong defensive capabilities, with a 2024 index increase of 13.84% [13][17] - The sector's financial cost rate decreased to 4.44% in 2024, aiding in reduced financing costs and improved profitability [26][25] - The sector's net asset return rate was 8.38% in 2024, with gross and net profit margins of 21.61% and 10.61%, respectively [25][46] 2. Hydroelectric Power Performance - Hydroelectric power is the most profitable sub-sector, with a gross margin of 54.41% and a net margin of 38.16% in 2024 [42][41] - Hydroelectric power contributed 23.91% of the sector's net profit in 2024, with a significant focus on shareholder returns [41][52] - The sector's overall profit contribution from power generation enterprises was 82% in 2024, with hydroelectric power ranking among the top contributors [41][37] 3. Individual Company Performance - Individual company performance varies, with hydroelectric companies showing the most stable results [5][6] - In 2025 Q1, hydroelectric power generation increased by 5.9% year-on-year, benefiting from favorable water conditions [50][49] - The financial performance of companies in Henan province showed a decline in revenue but an increase in net profit in 2024 [8][6] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a long-term investment perspective, focusing on large hydroelectric and nuclear power companies with stable profitability [8][5]