Core Viewpoint - The global chemical industry faces a dilemma in decarbonization, as trade turmoil and a persistently weak market force companies to cut capital expenditures, while achieving 2030 emission reduction targets and moving towards net-zero emissions by 2050 requires substantial investment [1][2]. Group 1: Current State of Decarbonization - The decarbonization process in the chemical industry is significantly lagging, with absolute emissions increasing by 6% from 2019 to 2023, and emission intensity remaining stable at 1.3 million tons of CO2 equivalent [2]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that emission intensity needs to be reduced to 920,000 tons of CO2 equivalent by 2030, and an 85% reduction in annual emissions is required by 2050, alongside a projected 70% growth in industry size [2]. - PwC forecasts that investments related to decarbonization will need to reach between $1.5 trillion and $3.3 trillion by 2050 [2]. Group 2: Investment Challenges - Despite commitments from major companies like BASF and Dow Chemical to invest over $1 billion annually in sustainability, economic downturns are squeezing the space for decarbonization investments [3]. - The American Chemistry Council (ACC) reports that high interest rates, tariff barriers, and geopolitical risks are causing a slowdown in capital expenditure growth, with projections of a 3.9% increase to $39 billion in 2024, followed by a decrease of 1.6% in 2025 [2][3]. Group 3: Project Delays and Policy Issues - Significant projects, such as Dow Chemical's $6.5 billion "Net Zero Pathway" ethylene plant in Alberta, Canada, have been indefinitely stalled due to industry downturns, rising construction costs, and tariff uncertainties [4]. - The cancellation of $3.7 billion in emission reduction funding by the U.S. Department of Energy has exacerbated the situation, affecting key projects in hydrogen and molecular recycling [4]. - BASF has indicated that core decarbonization technologies, such as electric heating cracking furnaces, will not be scalable until after 2030 [4]. Group 4: Emission Accounting Challenges - The lack of stable policies and difficulties in managing Scope 3 emissions (i.e., emissions from the supply chain) are major institutional barriers to decarbonization [5]. - The SEC's 2024 climate disclosure rules do not include Scope 3 emissions, which account for 75% of total industry emissions, leading to potential investment stagnation of $77.5 billion [5]. - The complexity of the value chain and data inaccuracies hinder effective management of Scope 3 emissions, as demonstrated by the limited impact of reducing emissions from 1,000 core suppliers [5]. Group 5: Market Demand Issues - Insufficient market demand poses a significant barrier to the transition towards decarbonization, with companies like BASF noting a lack of demand for green products [6]. - Dow's CEO has acknowledged that while customers recognize low-carbon products, their willingness to pay a "green premium" is limited, especially in a downturn where cost control is prioritized [6]. Group 6: Future Outlook - Despite optimism among major companies regarding the 2030 targets, data reveals a stark reality: since 2020, the top 12 chemical companies have only reduced direct and indirect carbon emissions by 8.7%, with a mere 2.1% reduction in supply chain emissions [7]. - To resolve the decarbonization dilemma, the industry needs a collaborative effort across policy, technology, and market sectors to create a stable incentive mechanism, accelerate technology maturity, and cultivate green demand [7].