电子级单晶硅材料
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神工股份(688233):电子级单晶硅材料龙头 充分受益存储大周期
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-09 06:32
Core Viewpoint - The company is a leading supplier of single crystal silicon materials for integrated circuit etching, holding a global market share of approximately 15%. It is expected to benefit from the overall supply chain improvement driven by the storage industry's growth cycle, leading to potential earnings growth exceeding expectations [1]. Demand Side Analysis - The demand for large-sized single crystal silicon materials used in etching electrodes is applicable to logic chip etching. If the semiconductor cycle does not recover, the company's growth may be adversely affected [2]. - Rapid growth in AI server demand and the quick iteration of AI chips necessitate corresponding increases in storage throughput. The importance of storage chips in AI training and inference is growing, which significantly boosts the company's core business [3]. Supply Side Analysis - There is a continuous tight demand for orders from overseas storage manufacturers, creating challenges for the supply of large-sized single crystal silicon materials and etching electrodes. Domestic material manufacturers may have the opportunity to take on some overflow orders [3]. - Local Japanese and Korean enterprises have reached their supply limits, increasing the company's earnings elasticity due to overflow orders [5]. Catalysts and Indicators - Key indicators include the rhythm of storage demand and discrepancies between actual performance and guidance [6]. - Catalysts for growth include additional overseas orders and the company's capacity expansion [7]. Research Value - In the context of significant demand for AI computing power driving the storage industry, the market has overlooked the upstream segment of the storage supply chain. The manufacturing of storage chips requires multiple etching processes, necessitating large amounts of single crystal silicon materials and etching electrodes. The company is a global leader in this field, with a market share of about 15%, and is expected to benefit significantly from the growth cycle in storage [8]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Considering the company's leading position in silicon materials and the downstream storage sector's benefits from computing power development, revenue projections for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 470 million, 800 million, and 1.31 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 55.6%, 70.5%, and 62.8%. Net profits attributable to the parent company are expected to be 110 million, 270 million, and 450 million yuan, with year-on-year growth of 168.9%, 141.7%, and 68.6%. Based on the closing price on November 7, 2025, the PE ratios are projected to be 78.5, 32.5, and 19.3 times, maintaining a "buy" rating [9].