AI 时代存储大周期机遇 20260108 摘要 Q&A 近期存储市场的主要变化和趋势是什么？ 近期存储市场的主要变化和趋势包括以下几个方面： 存储行业业绩强劲：美光业绩超预期 60%，三星 2026 年 Q4 营业利润 达 20 万亿韩元，南亚科 12 月营收同比增长 445%，主要来源于 ASP 提升，新增产能预计 2027 年底释放。 存储行业供需分析：供给端短期刚性，需求端多层缓存、英伟达方案及 通用服务器增速推动需求增长，预计 2026 年 CSP 通用服务器增速达 50%，整体内存增速超 100%。 1. 一季度涨价预期：目前企业级产品的涨价幅度预期已从此前的 50%左右 上调至 70%以上。据我们调研，与韩国和美国原厂沟通后得知，一季度 可能会有 2~3 次价格调整，预计每次调整幅度在 70%起步。 2. CES 展会上 Rubi 的新方案发布：黄教主在 CES 展上发布了针对 SSD 和 NAND 的新方案，强调了 KV Cache 技术的下沉带来的 SSD 占用增 加。预计 2026 年将出 demo，2027 年正式推出类 HBF 方案。这将改 变海外投资者对存储行业估值偏见的问题，目前美 ...

内存条价格持续暴涨。近日，"1盒内存条价格堪比上海1套房"等相关话题引发大量关注。 在购物平台上，海力士和三星的256G DDR5服务器内存单根价格已超4万元，部分甚至高达49999元/根。 PCPartPicker数据显示，DDR4（内存）与DDR5（内存）年内已涨价2—3倍。行业人士表示："内存几乎一天一个价，256G的DDR5服务器内存单条价格已 超4万元。如果一次采购一盒100根就是400万，价值已超过上海不少房产。" 据新京报，自2025年9月开始，存储芯片就已出现涨价趋势。 TrendForce集邦咨询发布的存储现货价格趋势报告指出，自2025年9月初以来，DDR5内存2Gbx8颗粒现货价格大涨307%，DDR4 1Gbx8也有158%的涨幅， 其中DDR4 1Gbx8 3200MT/s在11月12日至11月18日价格涨幅达4.75%。PCPartPicker数据显示，DDR4与DDR5年内已经涨价2-3倍。 值得注意的是，截至2025年12月31日，现货黄金（伦敦金现）全年累计涨幅达67%。 近期黄仁勋在美国拉斯维加斯消费电子展(CES)上的演讲引发了行业对内存价值的高度关注，带动闪迪公司1月7 ...

国金证券指出，存储器是半导体中仅次于逻辑（GPU、CPU等）的第二大细分市场，其历史表现与整个 半导体周期走势一致，但波动性大于整个行业，大市场与强周期属性并存。随着AI驱动需求提升，我 们可能正走在新一轮存储大周期的起点。半导体设备位于产业链上游，是支撑芯片制造与封测的核心产 业；2025年或是国产半导体设备订单增长与业绩兑现的大年。后续随着AI大模型驱动存储技术向3D化 演进，叠加长鑫、长存等国内存储大厂扩产项目落地，国产半导体设备产业链有望迎来新一轮高速增长 机遇。 周一市场成交额重回2万亿，科技方向领涨。细分来看，光模块、存储、半导体设备等AI算力、芯片产 业链细分再度走强，热门半导体设备ETF（561980）昨日大涨2.23%。 Wind数据显示，截至12月8日，该ETF连续两日获资金净流入累计超3000万元，最新规模27.95亿元。 消息面上，近日摩尔线程上市、沐曦股份开启申购，显示国产GPU资本化、市场化进程明显提速。此 外，存储芯片涨价幅度还在扩大。据Trend Force集邦咨询最新调查，预计第四季度整体NAND Flash价 格还会持续上涨，各产品涨幅将落在20%—25%之间。 中证指数官 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the performance of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board 100 Index and the related ETF, with significant movements in semiconductor stocks driven by supply shortages and anticipated price increases in memory chips [1][2] - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board 100 Index has shown mixed performance, with notable gains from companies like Lexin Technology and Zhongke Lanyun, while Dongxin Co. led the declines [1] - The Sci-Tech 100 ETF has a recent trading volume of 1.69 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 2.71%, indicating active trading interest [1] Group 2 - The semiconductor sector is experiencing a strengthening trend, influenced by Dell's announcement regarding storage chip shortages and potential price hikes for equipment [1] - Research institutions predict that memory chip prices could rise by approximately 50% by the second quarter of 2026 due to ongoing shortages [1] - Guojin Securities emphasizes that new technology drives product upgrades and innovation, suggesting that the current demand from AI is at the beginning of a new memory cycle, warranting close attention to inventory and pricing data [1] Group 3 - The Sci-Tech 100 ETF closely tracks the Sci-Tech Innovation Board 100 Index, which consists of 100 medium-sized, liquid securities selected from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [2] - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board 100 Index account for 26.72% of the index, with companies like Huahong Semiconductor and Dongxin Co. among the leaders [2]

Market Overview - The ChiNext Index experienced a decline of 0.44%, while the flu sector showed strength towards the end of trading [4][6] - On November 27, major stock indices in Japan and South Korea closed higher, with the Nikkei 225 rising by 1.23% to 50,167.10 points, surpassing the 50,000 mark [6] - The domestic commodity futures market saw most main contracts increase, with platinum rising over 6% on its debut [6] Fund Flow - Significant capital inflow was observed in several consumer electronics and semiconductor stocks, with net inflows exceeding 300 million yuan for companies like ZTE Corporation and Chipone Technology [8] Institutional Insights - Guojin Securities highlighted that the memory market, driven by AI, is entering a new cycle, with historical performance closely tied to the semiconductor cycle [9] - CICC forecasts a tight balance in global tin supply and demand from 2025 to 2030, with potential upward pressure on tin prices due to concentrated global supply [9] - Dongguan Securities noted that the A-share market is gradually recovering amidst fluctuations, with improving market confidence and a positive outlook driven by policy guidance and capital market dynamics [10]

Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a new storage cycle driven by emerging technologies and AI demand, with historical cycles characterized by demand, capacity, and inventory phases [1][2] - The memory segment, being the second largest in semiconductors, shows greater volatility than the overall industry, with significant market growth expected due to AI [1] Capital Expenditure Projections - DRAM capital expenditure is projected to reach $53.7 billion in 2025, increasing to $61.3 billion in 2026, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 14% [3] - NAND Flash capital expenditure is expected to be $21.1 billion in 2025, with a slight increase to $22.2 billion in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 5% [3] AI Impact on Storage Demand - The introduction of reasoning chains in large language models (LLMs) is significantly increasing data storage needs, with a shift from KB to TB and even EB in storage units [2] - The cost of reasoning in large models has decreased exponentially since the release of ChatGPT-3, which is expected to drive application growth and storage demand [2] - KV Cache is identified as a key mechanism for optimizing reasoning efficiency in large models, further increasing storage requirements [2] Current Industry Focus - Memory manufacturers are shifting focus from pure capacity expansion to upgrading process technologies and developing high-value products like HBM [3] - Current cleanroom space is nearing capacity limits, with only a few manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix having limited expansion capabilities [3] Investment Recommendations - Continuous monitoring of memory inventory, pricing data, and the impact of AI computing power on storage chip demand is advised [4]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market's semiconductor industry chain is experiencing an upward trend, with the Hang Seng Technology Index rising nearly 1%, and notable increases in stocks such as Hua Hong Semiconductor and SMIC [1] - The first Hong Kong ETF focusing on the semiconductor industry chain (159131) has seen a price increase of 2.26%, indicating strong buying interest and confirming a rebound pattern [1] - According to Guojin Securities, the current market is at the beginning of a new storage cycle driven by AI demand, suggesting a focus on storage inventory, price data, and the impact of AI on storage chip demand [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong ETF (159131) is composed of 70% hardware and 30% software, heavily investing in semiconductor, electronics, and computer software sectors, with significant weights in companies like SMIC and Xiaomi [2] - The ETF excludes major internet companies like Alibaba and Tencent, allowing for a sharper focus on the AI hard technology market in Hong Kong [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong semiconductor industry chain is experiencing a significant upward trend, with various stocks showing notable gains, indicating a potential recovery in the market [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Technology Index rose nearly 1%, with notable increases in stocks such as Hua Hong Semiconductor (over 5% increase), SMIC and Jiantao Laminated Board (over 4% increase), and others like Hong Teng Precision, Meitu, and Xiaomi Group (over 3% increase) [1]. - The first Hong Kong ETF focusing on the semiconductor industry (159131) saw a price increase of 2.26%, confirming a rebound pattern, with real-time transaction volume exceeding 330 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The semiconductor market is entering a new cycle driven by AI demand, with a recommendation to monitor inventory and pricing data closely [2]. - The China Semiconductor Industry Association predicts that the total sales of the chip design industry will reach 835.73 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a 29.4% growth compared to 2024 [3]. - The domestic chip development is seen as a long-term trend, with current conditions viewed as the best time for growth in advanced process manufacturing and chip architecture upgrades [5]. Group 3: Valuation and Investment Opportunities - Many Chinese tech companies are valued at only one-third to half of their U.S. counterparts, despite offering competitive AI products, making the Hong Kong tech sector particularly attractive for investment [6]. - The Hong Kong Information Technology ETF (159131) is structured with a focus on hardware (70%) and software (30%), covering 42 hard-tech companies, with significant weights in SMIC (20.27%), Xiaomi Group (9.11%), and Hua Hong Semiconductor (5.64%) [8].

Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market's semiconductor industry chain is experiencing an upward trend, with the Hang Seng Technology Index rising nearly 1% [1] - Notable stock performances include Huahong Semiconductor up over 5%, SMIC and Jiantao Laminated Board up over 4%, and several other stocks like Hongteng Precision, Meitu, and Xiaomi Group rising over 3% [1] - The first Hong Kong ETF focusing on the semiconductor industry chain (159131) has seen a price increase of 2.26%, indicating a potential recovery trend, with a trading volume exceeding 33 million yuan [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - The semiconductor industry is expected to enter a new storage cycle driven by emerging technologies, with AI demand expected to boost the market [2] - The China Semiconductor Industry Association predicts that the total sales of the chip design industry will reach 835.73 billion yuan by 2025, a 29.4% increase from 2024 [3] - The domestic chip development is seen as a long-term trend, with current conditions viewed as the best time for growth in the sector [5] Group 3: ETF and Index Information - The newly launched Hong Kong Information Technology ETF (159131) tracks an index composed of 70% hardware and 30% software, focusing on semiconductor, electronics, and computer software sectors [7] - The ETF includes 42 Hong Kong hard-tech companies, with significant weights assigned to SMIC (20.27%), Xiaomi Group (9.11%), and Huahong Semiconductor (5.64%) [7] - The index aims to capture the performance of the AI hard-tech sector, excluding major internet companies like Alibaba and Tencent, thus providing a sharper focus on the semiconductor industry [7]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board Chip Index rose by 3.35% as of November 27, 2025, with notable increases in stocks such as Haiguang Information (up 8.50%) and Cambrian (up 5.47%) [3] - The Bosera Sci-Tech Chip ETF (588990) increased by 3.08%, marking its fourth consecutive rise, with a latest price of 2.37 yuan and a cumulative increase of 6.97% over the past three months [3] - The trading volume for the Bosera Sci-Tech Chip ETF was 14.71 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 2.11% [3] Group 2 - Major overseas storage manufacturers reported positive Q3 2025 results, with companies like Micron and Samsung benefiting from a tight supply-demand balance, leading to significant profit margins [4] - Micron's Q3 gross margin reached 46%, a 10 percentage point increase year-on-year, while SK Hynix maintained a gross margin of 57% [4] - The storage industry is entering a new cycle driven by AI demand, with expectations of continued price increases into the first half of the following year [4] Group 3 - The top ten weighted stocks in the Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board Chip Index account for 60.55% of the index, with companies like Haiguang Information and Cambrian among the leaders [5]