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昆工科技(920152):铝基铅炭电池25年开启量产,数据中心配储+集中式储能齐发力
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-12-10 11:05
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1][7]. Core Insights - The company is transitioning into a dual-driven growth phase with the launch of its large-capacity aluminum-lead-carbon battery, leveraging over 20 years of experience in the wet metallurgy industry [4][6]. - The company has initiated mass production of its aluminum-lead-carbon batteries in 2025, targeting the energy storage market, which is expected to grow significantly [6][18]. - The report anticipates a substantial increase in revenue and profitability from 2025 to 2027, with projected net profits of -70 million, 142 million, and 326 million yuan respectively [5][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Energy Storage Battery Industrialization - The company has developed a unique aluminum-lead-carbon battery technology, which is set to begin mass production in 2025, marking a significant technological advancement in the energy storage sector [6][18]. - The dual focus on electrode materials and energy storage batteries is expected to drive long-term growth for the company [18][21]. 2. Market Potential and Product Advantages - The aluminum-lead-carbon battery offers longer cycle life compared to traditional lead-carbon batteries and superior discharge duration and safety compared to lithium batteries, making it suitable for long-duration energy storage and peak shaving applications [6][44]. - The company estimates that by 2030, the new installation capacity of aluminum-lead-carbon batteries in China could reach 70 GWh, indicating a robust market opportunity [6][12]. 3. Financial Projections and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 618 million yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 26.3%, and is projected to reach 4.716 billion yuan by 2027 [5][7]. - The report estimates a target market value of 8.26 billion yuan based on mid-term profit projections, reflecting the anticipated growth trajectory of the energy storage segment [7][8]. 4. Production Capacity and Market Expansion - The company has established two production bases, with the Yunnan base already in operation and the Ningxia base expected to commence production in early 2026, facilitating market penetration in various energy storage applications [6][47]. - The company is actively pursuing projects in three main markets: centralized energy storage, commercial energy storage (data centers), and household storage, with initial projects already delivered [6][49].