| 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 3920 | 0.07 | 2.22 | 2.49 | | 深证综指 | 2492 | -0.02 | 5.14 | 3.08 | | 风格指数 (％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 | 0.23 | 3.72 | 20.28 | | 中盘指数 | -0.1 | 6.55 | 28.78 | | 小盘指数 | -0.02 | 5.03 | 23.85 | | 涨幅居前 | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行业(％) | | | | | 玻璃玻纤 | 3.14 | 13.79 | 52.44 | | 电池 | 2.43 | 2.74 | 56.23 | | 贵金属 | 2.2 | 14.11 | 36.42 | | 非金属材料 | 1.87 | 5.76 | 19.31 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1][7]. Core Insights - The company is transitioning into a dual-driven growth phase with the launch of its large-capacity aluminum-lead-carbon battery, leveraging over 20 years of experience in the wet metallurgy industry [4][6]. - The company has initiated mass production of its aluminum-lead-carbon batteries in 2025, targeting the energy storage market, which is expected to grow significantly [6][18]. - The report anticipates a substantial increase in revenue and profitability from 2025 to 2027, with projected net profits of -70 million, 142 million, and 326 million yuan respectively [5][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Energy Storage Battery Industrialization - The company has developed a unique aluminum-lead-carbon battery technology, which is set to begin mass production in 2025, marking a significant technological advancement in the energy storage sector [6][18]. - The dual focus on electrode materials and energy storage batteries is expected to drive long-term growth for the company [18][21]. 2. Market Potential and Product Advantages - The aluminum-lead-carbon battery offers longer cycle life compared to traditional lead-carbon batteries and superior discharge duration and safety compared to lithium batteries, making it suitable for long-duration energy storage and peak shaving applications [6][44]. - The company estimates that by 2030, the new installation capacity of aluminum-lead-carbon batteries in China could reach 70 GWh, indicating a robust market opportunity [6][12]. 3. Financial Projections and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 618 million yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 26.3%, and is projected to reach 4.716 billion yuan by 2027 [5][7]. - The report estimates a target market value of 8.26 billion yuan based on mid-term profit projections, reflecting the anticipated growth trajectory of the energy storage segment [7][8]. 4. Production Capacity and Market Expansion - The company has established two production bases, with the Yunnan base already in operation and the Ningxia base expected to commence production in early 2026, facilitating market penetration in various energy storage applications [6][47]. - The company is actively pursuing projects in three main markets: centralized energy storage, commercial energy storage (data centers), and household storage, with initial projects already delivered [6][49].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [3] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 476 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.09%. The third quarter alone saw a revenue increase of 26.05% year-on-year, indicating strong expansion in its core business [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the first three quarters of 2025 was -59.8 million yuan, an improvement compared to -11.2 million yuan in the same period of 2024. The profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted to -35 million, 155 million, and 277 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of -0.31, 1.39, and 2.48 yuan [3][5] - The company has commenced mass production of its lead-carbon battery production line in Luliang, Yunnan, marking a significant breakthrough in its manufacturing capabilities. The project has invested 423 million yuan as of the first half of 2025 [3] Financial Summary - For 2025, the company expects revenues to reach 734 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 18.7%. By 2026, revenues are projected to soar to 2.43 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 231.5% [5][7] - The gross margin is expected to decline to 9.8% in 2025 but is projected to recover to 16.5% in 2026 and 16.1% in 2027 [5][8] - The company’s total assets are forecasted to grow from 1.65 billion yuan in 2025 to 2.58 billion yuan in 2027, while total liabilities are expected to increase from 1.24 billion yuan in 2025 to 1.69 billion yuan in 2027 [7] Industry Insights - Lead-carbon batteries are noted for their safety, low cost, and maturity in technology, making them particularly suitable for household energy storage in regions with unstable power supply [4] - The integration of carbon materials in lead-acid batteries enhances their lifespan and performance, making them a viable alternative to lithium batteries in residential settings [4]