证书编号：S1080524120001 电话：0755-23838533 邮箱：guoqiang@fcsc.com 风险提示：政策变动风险，市场机制完善不及预期的风险，并网消纳风险，下游 需求不如预期，原材料价格上涨超预期等。 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 证券研究报告 行业研究 2025 年 10 月 10 日 储能的结构性需求确立，经济性加速兑现，推动储能 行业景气度继续维持高位 第一创业证券研究所 第 1 页 共 7 页 核心观点： 新能源发电并网比例的迅速提高使储能从"可选项"变为"必选项"。以欧 盟为例，随着新能源发电占比达到 28.5%，出现了一系列问题：电价波动与 "负电价"问题；弃风弃光现象频发；系统惯量与频率质量承压；配电网承 载能力不足等。这些问题的共性根因有：时间错配；空间错配；同步机组退 出现象与系统惯量供给缺口；市场与规制配套不到位等。据 ENTSO-E 测算， 在欧盟层面，如果到 2030 年前额外配置约 56GW 储能，可将系统弃风弃光减 少约 30TWh/年，年度系统成本降低 80 亿欧元，每年减少约 1900 万吨二氧化 碳排放量。 分析师：郭强 电力系统的储能配套建设分为两 ...

海博思创 20251008 Q&A 海博思创公司在储能系统集成领域的核心竞争优势是什么？ 海博思创公司作为国内储能系统集成的龙头企业，其核心竞争优势主要体现在 以下几个方面：首先，公司在国内和海外市场均有显著布局，国内市场受益于 政策驱动和储能装机量的快速增长，预计 2025 年装机目标为 140~150 G 瓦 时，同比增长超过 30%。其次，海外市场尤其是欧洲和美国表现优异，公司 65%的业务集中在欧洲，10%在美国，其余 25%分布在澳大利亚及亚太新兴 市场。海外市场单价和盈利水平较高，为公司营收和利润提供强劲动力。此外， 公司逐季度上修出货指引，预计 2025 年全年出货目标为 30 G 瓦时，并且未 来几年内逐步提升至 70、100、120 G 瓦时。最后，公司具备完整的储能系统 集成生产能力，包括 PCS、EMS、BMS 等核心零部件生产，仅电芯需要外采， 这使得其产品竞争力进一步增强。 公司预计 2025 年国内出货量约 25GWh，海外约 5GWh，毛利率分别 为 16%和 30%，对应利润 9 亿元左右。2026 年预计利润 17 亿元左右， 2027-2028 年归母净利润预计在 25~3 ...

Core Viewpoint - Compressed air energy storage (CAES) is emerging as a significant large-scale physical energy storage technology, with rapid cost reductions and competitive advantages over electrochemical storage, marking a critical phase of technological breakthroughs and large-scale applications in the energy sector [1][4][10]. Group 1: Project Overview - The CAES project in Shandong Feicheng utilizes underground salt caverns for high-pressure air storage, with a total capacity of 900,000 cubic meters, allowing for the absorption of 770,000 kWh of electricity during low-demand periods [4][5]. - The project has a total investment of 3.64 billion yuan, with a design charging duration of 8 hours and a continuous full-power generation duration of 6 hours, expected to generate an average annual grid electricity of 1.188 billion kWh, sufficient for 600,000 households [4][5]. Group 2: Industry Development - The CAES industry is experiencing a surge in investment and construction, with multiple large-scale projects underway in Feicheng, making it a hub for CAES technology in China [7][8]. - The domestic CAES market is expected to see a significant increase in installed capacity, with projections of 42.37 million kW of new installations by 2024, contributing to a total exceeding 73.76 million kW [8]. Group 3: Economic Viability - The unit investment cost for CAES currently ranges from 6,000 to 7,000 yuan per kW, with expectations of further reductions due to increased domestic production of key equipment [10][11]. - The economic model for CAES includes capacity-based, energy-based, and ancillary service revenue streams, enhancing project profitability through participation in electricity markets [10][11]. Group 4: Policy Support - The development of the CAES sector is bolstered by supportive policies from various levels of government, including measures that allow CAES projects to participate in electricity spot markets and receive enhanced compensation for capacity [11]. - By 2027, it is anticipated that the unit investment intensity for CAES will decrease by over 15%, with investment payback periods potentially shortening to 8-10 years, making the sector more attractive for investors [11].

（原标题：废弃盐穴变身"超级充电宝"！这一产业，迎来投资热潮） 近年来，压缩空气储能作为极具发展潜力的大规模物理储能技术，逐渐成为能源领域的研究热点和投资 热点。目前，该行业正迎来技术突破与规模化应用的关键阶段。 "近两年，压缩空气储能成本下降得非常快，全寿命周期成本与电化学储能相比，已具有竞争优势。"中 国电建相关负责人表示。 日前，证券时报记者实探山东肥城盐穴压缩空气储能电站项目了解到，在政策端、应用端的多重助力 下，压缩空气储能的整体性能和经济性持续提升，行业正进入发展新阶段。 废弃矿洞再利用 在山东省肥城市边院镇，中国电建肥城2×300MW（一期）盐穴压缩空气储能电站项目正在紧锣密鼓地 建设中。 记者在现场看到，该项目占地221亩，项目周边被农田环绕。就在距离该厂区西北方向的地下1300米深 处，深藏着两个被改造为高压储气库的总容量90万立方米的地下盐穴，储气库与厂区通过埋在地下的输 气管线连接。 项目现场相关负责人向记者介绍："电网低谷时，电站从电网取电驱动压缩系统，把空气沿着管路压缩 到地下盐穴，每小时可以消纳77万度电，还可将压缩过程中所产生的大量热量存储起来。等到电网用电 高峰，再将地下盐穴中 ...

海辰储能的快速崛起始终伴随着技术争议。公司宣称在全球申请超4400件专利，但2024年研发费用率仅 4.1%，显著低于宁德时代（5.14%）、比亚迪（6.85%）等头部企业。更关键的是，其核心团队与宁德 时代存在深度交集——创始人吴祖钰及三名执行董事均曾任职宁德时代。 2025年9月25日，厦门海辰储能科技股份有限公司（以下简称"海辰储能"）向港交所递交的H股招股说 明书正式失效。这家成立仅六年、估值一度突破250亿元的储能行业独角兽，在冲刺港股上市的关键节 点遭遇挫折，其全球化战略布局面临不确定性。 招股书失效：6个月期限的"生死线" 根据港交所规定，企业递交的招股书有效期为6个月。海辰储能于2025年3月25日提交申请，但截至失效 日仍未完成证监会备案和港交所聆讯。市场分析指出，此次失效直接源于两大核心障碍：一是尚未解决 的技术专利纠纷，二是高增长背后的"隐忧"。 招股书显示，海辰储能2022-2024年营业收入从36.15亿元跃升至129.17亿元，年复合增长率达89%。然 而，其盈利质量却饱受质疑：2024年虽实现归母净利润2.59亿元，但政府补助高达4.14亿元。更严峻的 是，公司应收款项从2022 ...

Core Viewpoint - Long-duration energy storage, particularly all-vanadium flow batteries, is becoming essential for building resilient urban energy systems amid the acceleration of energy transition and the dual carbon goals [1][2][3] Group 1: Industry Context - The global energy transition is entering a critical phase, with renewable energy sources like wind and solar being integrated at large scales, leading to increased uncertainty and volatility in grid operations [2] - China's new energy storage capacity accounts for over 40% of the global total, but a significant long-duration storage gap remains, necessitating the deployment of up to 46 terawatt-hours of storage capacity by mid-century to achieve carbon neutrality [2][3] Group 2: Technology Advantages - All-vanadium flow batteries are recognized for their advantages, including over 20,000 cycles, a lifespan exceeding 20 years, inherent safety due to water-based electrolytes, and capacity that does not degrade [3][4] - In contrast, lithium-ion batteries, while dominant in short-duration applications, face limitations in long-duration storage due to a typical cycle life of around 2,000 cycles and significant performance degradation after 2-3 years [3] Group 3: Economic and Operational Benefits - A proposed "urban user-side all-vanadium flow battery + transmission network collaborative planning" approach can significantly reduce the need for new transmission lines, with total costs decreasing by 17% even when accounting for storage investments [3][4] - This approach can mitigate the risks of power outages caused by high renewable energy integration and reduce the costs associated with curtailing wind and solar energy by nearly 40% [3][4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The application of all-vanadium flow batteries is expected to transform urban energy systems from passive to active regulation, enhancing grid adaptability and reliability [4] - The integration of AI, big data, and digital twin technologies is anticipated to facilitate the intelligent management of energy systems, thereby providing resilience support for new power systems [7]

Core Viewpoint - Long-duration energy storage is becoming a critical component in the construction of new power systems, driven by the dual carbon goals and accelerated energy transition [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Context - The integration of high proportions of renewable energy into the grid has increased the demands for safety and flexibility in power systems [1]. - China's new energy storage installed capacity accounts for over 40% of the global total, but a significant gap remains in long-duration storage to meet carbon neutrality goals by mid-century [4]. - The current power grid faces challenges due to significant peak-valley differences, leading to resource waste and inefficient investments [4]. Group 2: Technology Insights - Vanadium redox flow batteries (VRFBs) are emerging as an ideal solution for urban energy storage due to their long lifespan, high safety, and capacity stability [3][4]. - VRFBs can achieve over 20,000 cycles and have a lifespan exceeding 20 years, making them suitable for long-duration energy storage [4]. - The integration of AI, big data, and digital twin technologies is expected to enhance the efficiency and reliability of VRFBs, transitioning them from "hardware storage" to "smart storage" [8]. Group 3: Economic Implications - A proposed collaborative planning scheme involving VRFBs and the transmission grid could reduce the need for new transmission lines, resulting in a total cost decrease of 17% even when accounting for storage investments [6]. - This approach can effectively mitigate the risks of power outages caused by high renewable energy integration and reduce the costs associated with curtailing wind and solar energy by nearly 40% [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The application of VRFBs is anticipated to shift urban energy systems from passive to active regulation, enhancing grid adaptability and resilience [6]. - The development of a "power bank" concept, capable of storing 5%-10% of annual electricity consumption, could significantly alleviate peak load pressures and reduce outage risks [8]. - The ongoing collaboration between companies and research institutions aims to create a more efficient, safe, and integrated charging and storage infrastructure in China [8].

Group 1: Defense Industry - The report highlights the signing of a defense agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, with potential participation from UAE and Qatar, indicating a shift towards seeking security guarantees from Chinese weapon systems, which is expected to significantly enhance Pakistan's weapon procurement capabilities [2] - The report anticipates a rebound in the military industry due to increased funding from the wealthiest Middle Eastern nations supporting Pakistan's military procurement [2] Group 2: Semiconductor Industry - Huawei's recent announcements at the 2025 Huawei Connect Conference detail a roadmap for the Ascend chip series, with the Ascend 950PR expected in Q1 2026 and the Ascend 960 in Q4 2027, indicating a trend of increasing chip usage in computing clusters [3] - The report suggests that the growth in chip usage will lead to a significant increase in demand for high-speed optical interconnects and high-end PCB, thus improving the outlook for the optical connection, PCB, and high-end chip manufacturing supply chains [3] Group 3: Energy Storage Industry - The report discusses insights from the 2025 World Energy Storage Conference, where the focus is on long-duration energy storage as a key development direction as the power system transitions to a stage where renewable energy sources exceed 50% of total generation [6] - Technologies such as vanadium flow batteries, compressed air storage, and hydrogen storage are expected to gain traction due to their longer discharge times and lower capacity costs, indicating a sustained high demand in the energy storage sector [6] Group 4: Home Appliance Industry - The report notes that Boss Electric's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 4.608 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 2.58%, with net profit dropping by 6.28%, reflecting challenges in the kitchen appliance sector linked to the real estate market [8] - The report highlights a significant drop in new residential sales and a contraction in the market for high-end renovation projects, which is expected to continue impacting the kitchen appliance industry negatively [8]

9月17日，在"2025世界储能大会"期间，中国能源研究会常务理事李俊峰接受包括《每日经济新闻》记 者在内的媒体采访时表示，储能作为新型电力系统与能源转型的核心支撑，发展前景值得期待，但行业 需正视内卷、安全等多重挑战，走健康、稳健的发展道路。 李俊峰指出，储能在能源转型进程中具有重要作用，尤其在新型电力系统建设中不可或缺。但当前储能 行业仍存在诸多短板，如安全事故风险、环境污染隐患不容忽视；全球供应链安全、原材料回收利用体 系尚不完善；技术标准与质量控制体系也亟待健全。 每经记者｜黄鑫磊 每经编辑｜张海妮 在区域能源发展层面，李俊峰表示，国内各地虽具备风、光、核能、化石能源等多元资源，具备功能互 补的基础，但目前尚无现成的能源转型模板。地方能源发展必须立足自身资源禀赋，推动风、光、生物 质能、化石能源及核能的协同发展，实现多能互补与综合利用。 谈及媒体关切的"储能出海"问题，李俊峰表示应以"储能国际化"来替代，因为我国储能生产制造集中度 过高，占全球产量的70%～80%，他认为这种分布不够均衡，储能行业应该加快国际化步伐。 对于行业热议的长时储能，李俊峰称，当前电力系统仍可通过煤电、天然气发电、水电、核电等 ...

赵天寿认为，长时储能将是储能的重要发展方向，可保障电力系统的稳定性。 "长时储能在新型电力系统中的发电侧、电网侧和用户侧都将起到重要作用。"赵天寿表示，在发电侧， 随着风光电占比的提高，断电的风险越来越大，需要发展长时储能技术来覆盖风光的间歇时长。 "目前国内弃风、弃光仍然严重，但电力供应仍会面临紧缺。"9月17日，在2025世界储能大会上，中国 科学院院士赵天寿提出这一看似矛盾的现象。 他表示，其背后原因是目前储能市场缺乏煤电那样的长时能量调节技术，长时储能技术将是储能市场的 重要发展方向。 国家能源局发布的《中国新型储能发展报告（2025）》显示，截至2024年底，我国已建成投运新型储能 装机规模占全球总装机比例超40%。随着新能源快速发展，系统调峰、电力保供压力不断增大，发展新 型储能成为构建新型电力系统的客观需要。 第一财经记者了解到，2小时以内的中短时储能无法保护电网免受因新能源发电不稳定所带来的冲击， 主要用于应对电力系统的短期负荷波动或频率调节，而长时储能主要实现跨日甚至跨季节的储能需求， 以保障电力系统的稳定性。 据赵天寿介绍，过去十几年我国光伏和风机的发展非常迅速，风光电的成本已低于煤电，光 ...