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中国工业行业 - 我们能从瑞银证据实验室的美国贸易监测中学到什么
瑞银· 2025-03-18 05:47
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies within the industrials sector, including BYD, CCCC, Yutong, and others, indicating a positive outlook on their performance and growth potential [6]. Core Insights - The analysis highlights the driving factors behind China's direct trade surplus with the US, noting that consumer durables, technology, industrials, and automotive sectors are key contributors. The overall trade surplus has narrowed since 2019 due to US-China trade tensions, particularly affecting consumer durables and technology [3][9]. - The report emphasizes the significant increase in China's indirect exports to the US via ASEAN and Latin America, with technology and consumer durables being major contributors to the widening US trade deficits with these regions [4][33]. - Investment trends show a 66% increase in Chinese companies' investment plans in ASEAN, with a focus on electronic components, lithium batteries, and auto parts, particularly in Thailand and Vietnam [5]. Summary by Sections Direct Trade Surplus with the US - China's trade surplus with the US has narrowed since 2019, with consumer durables and technology seeing the most significant declines due to increased tariffs. In contrast, the industrials and automotive sectors have experienced a widening surplus [3][13]. - The largest incremental trade surplus in 2024 compared to 2018 was recorded in the smartphones, battery & material, and pharmaceutical sectors [27]. Indirect Exports via ASEAN and LatAm - The US trade deficits with ASEAN and LatAm have expanded significantly from 2016 to 2024, driven by increased imports of technology and consumer durables from these regions [4][33]. - The automotive industry has notably contributed to the increase in China's export value to LatAm, aligning with the US's growing imports from that region [4][37]. Investment Trends - Chinese firms' investment plans in ASEAN increased by 66% year-over-year in 2024, with Thailand attracting 44% of total investment plans. Investment in Mexico rose by 85%, primarily driven by the automotive sector [5]. - The report identifies BYD, CCCC, and Yutong as preferred beneficiaries of the "going global" strategy, highlighting their strong market positions and growth potential [6].