Core Insights - The article discusses the shift in the logistics market for Douyin's (TikTok's Chinese counterpart) return goods, where SF Express has relinquished its share, allowing JD Logistics and other companies to compete for this lucrative segment [1][6][16] - The return logistics market is experiencing explosive growth, driven by the rise of e-commerce, particularly live-streaming sales, which have significantly higher return rates compared to traditional e-commerce platforms [3][4][8] Market Dynamics - The volume of e-commerce return shipments in China has surged from 3.6 billion in 2019 to 8.2 billion in 2023, with projections indicating it could reach 20.9 billion by 2028, representing about 10% of the daily express delivery volume [2] - Live-streaming e-commerce has a return rate ranging from 30% to 60%, with some categories experiencing rates as high as 80% during peak sales events, creating a substantial demand for efficient reverse logistics [3][4] Service Requirements - Douyin's return logistics require high service standards, including a five-minute initial response and one-hour code verification, which poses challenges for companies like JD Logistics and the "Three Links and One Reach" (a group of logistics companies) to meet these expectations [4][11][16] - SF Express has been recognized for its ability to meet these stringent requirements, maintaining a collection timeliness rate of over 95% for return shipments [5][11] Strategic Shifts - SF Express's decision to step back from Douyin's return logistics is attributed to a strategic focus on improving overall profit margins, which conflicted with Douyin's need to reduce logistics costs [6][8][9] - The company's strategy involves a cyclical approach, focusing on volume expansion in the first half of the year and profit optimization in the latter half, leading to stricter customer selection and pricing strategies [6][9] Challenges for Competitors - JD Logistics faces challenges in leveraging its extensive warehouse network for return logistics, as the return process primarily involves transporting goods to designated addresses rather than utilizing its storage facilities [12][13] - The company also struggles with labor shortages, which can hinder its ability to meet the demands of Douyin's return logistics, especially during peak sales periods when resources are prioritized for its own platform [14][15] Future Outlook - The article suggests that despite the transition to JD Logistics and the "Three Links and One Reach," the high service standards required for Douyin's return logistics may lead to a reassessment of logistics partners, potentially resulting in a return to SF Express in the future [15][16]