美银证券发布研报称，极兔速递-W(01519)第四季度表现超出预期，将极兔速递2025至2027财年的non- IFRS盈利预测上调2至3%，并将目标价轻微上调至12.8港元，重申其为2026年的行业首选，评级"买 入"。 极兔速递在去年第四季度录得强劲包裹量增长，尤其在东南亚及新市场表现突出。数据显示，东南亚每 日平均包裹量达2650万件，同比增长73.6%，新市场包裹量增长79.7%至每日145万件，两者均超出预 期。 尽管中国市场整体增长放缓，但极兔速递通过聚焦高价值业务及逆向物流，维持了盈利能力。美银认 为，核心客户如Temu、SHEIN及TikTok持续带来订单增长，而美客多(Mercado Libre)的需求扩大也为新 市场注入新动力。展望2026年，美银预测东南亚和新市场包裹量将分别增长43%与49%。 美银在报告中指出，东南亚市场的强劲增长来自于电商渗透率提升及公司持续进行的产能扩张，包括新 增1000个营业点及新增3套自动化分拣系统，预计这将支持每年5至10%单位成本下降的目标。而在新兴 市场方面，巴西成为增长的主要驱动力，墨西哥包裹量虽受关税影响，但仍保持正增长，本地化物流模 式转型和半托 ...

近日，顺丰终止与抖音电商的退货业务合作，且未参与2026年该业务，引发行业广泛关注，抖音电商退货履约服务已逐步由京东物流、中通、圆通等企业承 接。对此，顺丰官方回应称，此次合作终止系合同自然到期，属于正常商业行为，双方合作期间沟通良好。 双方早期情投意合，源于抖音对服务品质的严苛要求与顺丰高端服务能力的精准匹配。随着合作深入，双方核心诉求逐渐背离。顺丰近年来推进"增益计 划"，重点聚焦负毛利客户，即每单派送均产生亏损的业务。业绩方面，顺丰2025年三季度营收为784.0亿元，同比增长8.2%；归母净利润却同比下降 8.53%，扣非净利润更是下滑14.17%，属于典型的增收不增利。 反观抖音，随着电商业务规模变大，对成本的敏感度逐渐攀升。抖音为维持其在激烈电商竞争中的价格优势，持续优化电商退货成本，这恰巧与顺丰在下半 年实施的、旨在提升整体毛利率和严格筛选客户的"增益计划"形成错位。 电退件对时效性和服务方面的要求很高，各个环节均需快速响应。对于中通、圆通等加盟制快递企业而言，其核心优势在于正向件的低成本大规模派送，末 端网点及快递员的工作重心围绕派送展开，并从中获取微薄的派费。而抖音退货业务，需要实现"一小时 ...

文 | 超聚焦 顺丰让出的抖音电退蛋糕，被京东和三通一达"分食"。 据快递观察家报道，12月中旬，抖音退货再次大范围切换，曾经由顺丰承担的电商退货份额被释放并重 新竞标，而经过激烈争夺，京东物流、中通、圆通、邮政、韵达等多家快递公司在不同地区中标。 有顺丰相关人士向超聚焦证实了此消息，但对方也表示抖音电退件对于快递承运商的要求并不低，对于 三通一达和京东，能否承接住顺丰"让"出的抖音电退市场，还将持续观望。 那么，抖音电退的市场究竟有多大？顺丰当年为了啃下这块一天400万票的业务付出了哪些努力？又为 什么会"淡出"在抖音退货这一巨大市场中的份额？ 对于拿下新业务的京东和三通一达来说，又能否顺利承接住这股巨大的业务洪流，并保证提供不逊色于 顺丰的服务体验呢？ 电退件发展早期， 抖音与顺丰"情投意合" 之所以抖音电退业务的"换防"能引起业界的强烈关注，根本原因在于这块市场本身的惊人体量和极高的 战略价值。它不仅仅是简单的物流订单，更是电商物流赛道中的一座高价值"金矿"。 近年来，随着电商尤其直播电商的快速发展，消费者的退换货需求呈现爆炸式增长，使得逆向物流成为 快递行业名副其实的"蓝海"。 据邮政局和灼识咨询的数 ...

中通快递在电商快递行业中具有显著的竞争优势，主要体现在以下几个方面： 1. 市场份额：根据 2023 年的数据，中通的市场份额达到 22.9%，领先于 其他竞争对手。虽然与第二名圆通的差距仅为 4 个百分点，但从整体市 占率来看，中通明显处于第一梯队，而其他公司则分布在第二和第三梯 队。 2. 单票盈利：中通的单票盈利能力显著高于其他公司。2023 年数据显示， 中通与圆通相比，单票盈利几乎有一倍左右的差距。这表明中通在每一 票业务上的净利润远高于竞争对手。 3. 客户溢价支付意愿：中通客户愿意支付更高的服务溢价，这反映了其服 务质量和客户满意度较高。尽管与顺丰、京东等完全直营模式的公司相 比存在一定差距，但在纯加盟制快递公司中，中通长期保持服务排名第 一。 4. 运营成本控制：中通在单票核心成本控制方面表现出色。2023 年数据 显示，中通的单票合计成本为 0.7 元，低于圆通（0.75 元）和韵达 （0.8 元以上）。这得益于其精细化管理和规模效应，使得其运营效率 更高。 中通快递 20251207 摘要 中通快递以显著优势领先市场，虽与圆通差距仅 4%，但整体市占率稳 居第一梯队，远超其他竞争者，奠定其 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the significant growth in China's express delivery business during the peak season, with a record daily volume of 777 million packages, totaling 13.938 billion packages collected from October 21 to November 11, representing a 117.8% increase compared to regular business volume [1][2] - The express delivery market continues to expand, playing a crucial role in stimulating domestic demand, promoting consumption, and stabilizing economic growth, particularly through the development of rural markets and integration with advanced manufacturing [2][3] - The rise in express delivery volume is accompanied by a notable increase in reverse logistics, particularly for large items, which have benefited from digital technology that enhances efficiency and transparency in the return process [3][11] Group 2 - The implementation of intelligent return systems has streamlined the reverse logistics process, allowing for efficient handling of returns, especially for large items that previously faced challenges due to complex packaging and collection issues [7][11] - The digital systems enable optimal path planning for each return, automatically matching items to destination warehouses and providing tailored logistics support for large items, resulting in a 42% increase in forward orders and a 21% increase in reverse orders during the e-commerce promotion period [11] - The integration of drones into the logistics process is transforming traditional delivery methods, significantly reducing transportation costs and improving delivery efficiency, as demonstrated by the use of drones for deliveries to remote islands [14][18]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, Assurant achieved 13% Adjusted EBITDA growth and 15% adjusted EPS growth, both excluding reportable catastrophes [4][5] - The company expects full-year adjusted EPS growth in low double digits and Adjusted EBITDA growth approaching 10%, a significant increase from initial expectations [5][24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global Lifestyle earnings increased 4% year-to-date, with double-digit growth in Q3 [6] - Adjusted EBITDA for Global Lifestyle rose 12% year-over-year, driven by Connected Living and Global Automotive [19] - Global Housing's Q3 Adjusted EBITDA was $256 million, with a 13% increase excluding catastrophes [21][22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Connected Living saw 2.1 million net additions in mobile subscribers year-over-year, supported by partnerships with US clients [20] - Global Auto's Adjusted EBITDA increased 15%, with a normalized growth of 6% when excluding non-run rate benefits [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Assurant is focused on expanding its B2B2C business model and enhancing operational excellence to drive client outcomes and shareholder returns [4][5] - The company plans to launch new products and services across lifestyle and housing, with a focus on innovation and technology integration [16][27] - Strategic investments in technology and operational efficiencies are expected to drive improved margins and customer experiences [14][27] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to create value for stakeholders and achieve profitable growth for the ninth consecutive year [27][105] - The company is well-positioned for future growth, with a focus on increasing attachment rates with existing partners and winning new clients globally [16][27] Other Important Information - Assurant returned $122 million to shareholders in Q3, including $81 million in share repurchases and $41 million in dividends [22] - The company completed a successful issuance of $300 million in senior notes, demonstrating strong demand for its investment-grade bonds [22][23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you expand on the strong pipeline in housing? - Management noted strong momentum in housing, driven by technology investments and a market-leading lender-placed solution, with further opportunities for growth [30][31] Question: Is the loss performance in Global Auto sustainable? - Management expressed satisfaction with the 15% year-over-year EBITDA growth in Global Auto, indicating stability in loss performance due to prior rate increases and product enhancements [32][33] Question: How do you view the impact of a potential housing market downturn? - Management acknowledged benefits from the current hard market but indicated that a downturn could lead to increased placement rates, suggesting a countercyclical nature [34][35] Question: What is the expected impact of new partnerships in Connected Living? - Management highlighted that new partnerships, including reverse logistics and Geek Squad deals, are expected to contribute positively to EBITDA starting in 2026 [51][52] Question: What are the expectations for capital deployment in 2026? - Management indicated a strong capital position and a balanced approach to investments, with expectations for higher capital deployment in 2026, including share buybacks and M&A opportunities [55][56][61]

Core Insights - The Chinese express delivery industry is experiencing a transformation driven by the "old-for-new" exchange policy, which has led to the early achievement of 100 billion express deliveries by 2025, 35 days ahead of schedule compared to last year [1] - The shift from traditional delivery to integrated services, including installation and recycling, reflects an evolution in the logistics model, enhancing supply chain capabilities and responding to consumer demands [2][3] Group 1: Industry Transformation - The express delivery sector is evolving from a simple transportation model to a comprehensive service model, where delivery personnel act as "mobile service stations" handling both new product installation and old product recycling [2] - The integration of reverse logistics into the delivery process creates a closed-loop ecosystem of "new delivery - old recovery - disposal," enhancing service efficiency and resource allocation [2][3] Group 2: Value Creation and Distribution - The introduction of platforms like SF Express's "Shun Recovery" combines reverse logistics with financial services, allowing consumers to receive immediate compensation for old products, thereby reconstructing the commercial credit system [3] - The express delivery industry is becoming a central hub for value creation, connecting production and consumption, and supporting the transition from "Made in China" to "Created in China" [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Continuous technological innovation, improved institutional design, and strengthened ecological collaboration are essential for the green transformation of the express delivery industry [3] - The industry is expected to further develop under the dual influence of policy guidance and market innovation, contributing to sustainable development and environmental responsibility [3]

Core Insights - The achievement of delivering the 100 billionth express delivery in China by 2025, 35 days ahead of schedule, highlights the rapid growth of the express delivery industry and the effectiveness of policies aimed at expanding the consumer market [1][2] - The transformation of express delivery services from simple transportation to integrated service models, including installation and recycling, reflects a significant upgrade in service capabilities and supply chain management [1][2] Industry Evolution - The "send new and take old" model addresses consumer demands and establishes a product lifecycle management system, driven by the government's "old-for-new" policy [2] - Companies like JD Logistics and SF Express are developing specialized teams and AI systems to enhance service capabilities, responding to the market's need for comprehensive service solutions [2] Service Model Transformation - The shift from traditional one-way delivery to a closed-loop ecosystem of "send new - recycle - dispose" signifies a deep integration of reverse logistics into the express delivery process [2] - The creation of platforms like SF Express's "Shun Recycling" combines reverse logistics with financial services, allowing consumers to receive immediate compensation for old products, thereby reconstructing the commercial credit system [2] Future Outlook - The express delivery industry is positioned as a vital link between production and consumption, with the "send new and take old" model representing not just a service evolution but a broader development philosophy [2] - Continuous technological innovation, improved institutional design, and enhanced ecological collaboration are essential for the green transformation of the express delivery industry [2]

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is experiencing new opportunities for growth through the "old for new" policy, which enhances service capabilities and optimizes logistics networks as part of the broader strategy to expand domestic demand [1][6]. Group 1: Service Model Evolution - The express delivery service is transitioning from one-way delivery to a dual fulfillment model, integrating delivery and installation services [2]. - New technologies are being applied in small parcel delivery, enhancing efficiency and customer experience during the "old for new" process [3][4]. - The introduction of a verification step in the delivery process is crucial for ensuring the authenticity of subsidies and improving customer satisfaction [4]. Group 2: Business Growth and Demand - The expansion of the "old for new" policy has led to increased demand for home appliances and consumer electronics, driving significant growth in delivery volumes [6]. - In 2023, major express companies reported over 20% year-on-year growth in delivery volumes, with specific categories like large home appliances seeing a 150% increase in orders [6][7]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Logistics Innovation - The express delivery industry is focusing on enhancing supply chain capabilities to facilitate seamless "old for new" transactions [10][11]. - Companies are developing reverse logistics models to improve the efficiency of old product collection and new product delivery, significantly reducing turnaround times [10]. - The establishment of centralized processing warehouses is being prioritized to streamline the recycling and disposal of old appliances [10][11]. Group 4: Future Directions - The industry is encouraged to further optimize service networks and technology applications to support the ongoing expansion of the "old for new" initiative [12]. - There is a push for the adoption of recyclable packaging and the development of industry standards for reverse logistics to promote high-quality growth in the sector [12].

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is experiencing new opportunities for growth through the "old for new" consumption policy, which enhances service models and strengthens supply chain capabilities, as evidenced by the early achievement of delivering the 100 billionth express package in 2025, 35 days ahead of schedule compared to last year [1] Group 1: Service Model Evolution - The transition from one-way delivery to a dual fulfillment model, where new products are delivered and old ones are collected, reflects an upgrade in service capabilities [2][3] - The integration of delivery and installation services has become essential, requiring delivery personnel to possess multiple skills, including delivery, disassembly, and installation [3] - The introduction of a verification process during delivery ensures that subsidies for old-for-new exchanges are accurately distributed, enhancing customer experience and reducing return rates [4][5] Group 2: Business Growth and Demand - The expansion of the "old for new" policy has led to increased demand for home appliances and consumer electronics, driving a significant rise in delivery volumes [7] - In 2022, a major express delivery company reported over 20% year-on-year growth in cargo volume, with the "national subsidy" service covering a wide range of products and generating over 10 million new orders [7] - The proportion of large appliance orders related to "old for new" exchanges has exceeded 30%, with a year-on-year increase of 150% in the first half of the year [7] Group 3: Technological and Operational Innovations - The express delivery industry is shifting from low-value traditional services to high-value offerings, driven by the need for enhanced technical capabilities and service quality [8] - Companies are leveraging technology and efficient collaboration across the supply chain to support the growth of "old for new" services, with recommendations for optimizing integrated warehousing and distribution models [9][10] - The establishment of centralized processing warehouses for recycling and disposal is being implemented to streamline operations and improve the efficiency of the reverse logistics process [12][13] Group 4: Future Directions and Policy Support - The ongoing implementation of policies to stimulate domestic demand will require express delivery companies to further optimize their service networks and technological applications [14] - Future initiatives include enhancing urban networks and promoting the use of recyclable packaging in reverse logistics, aiming for high-quality industry development [14]