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香港交易所(0388.HK):赴港上市步伐加快 市场热度仍处高位
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-15 03:28
Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market showed significant growth in July, with high trading activity expected to continue, leading to anticipated performance growth for the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) [1][2]. Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market experienced an overall increase, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 23.5% and 22.0% respectively compared to the end of 2024 [1]. - The monthly average daily turnover (ADT) for HKEX reached HKD 262.9 billion, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 14.2% and a year-on-year increase of 166.6% [1]. - Northbound trading ADT was HKD 222.3 billion, with month-on-month and year-on-year increases of 36.5% and 86.0% respectively, while southbound trading ADT was HKD 144.4 billion, increasing by 19.5% month-on-month and 329.0% year-on-year [1]. Derivatives Market - The derivatives market saw a recovery in options trading, with average daily volume (ADV) for futures at 572,000 contracts, showing a slight decrease of 0.1% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year [1]. - Options ADV was 942,000 contracts, with month-on-month and year-on-year increases of 14.8% and 30.6% respectively [1]. IPO Market - The IPO market in Hong Kong saw significant growth, with 9 new stocks listed in July, totaling HKD 19.9 billion, which is a decrease of 34% month-on-month but an increase of 333% year-on-year [2]. - New derivative warrants and bull/bear certificates listed were 850 and 2,271 respectively, with year-on-year increases of 42% and 31%, and month-on-month increases of 11% and 14% [2]. Investment Income - Investment income rates for HKEX showed a decline compared to previous months, with the 6-month HIBOR at 2.27%, down by 0.11 percentage points month-on-month [2]. Macroeconomic Environment - Domestic economic conditions showed a decline in manufacturing activity, with the PMI at 49.30%, indicating contraction [3]. - The overseas environment is characterized by tightening liquidity due to the Federal Reserve's decision to pause interest rate cuts, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut in September 2025 [3]. Valuation and Outlook - As of the end of July, the company's PE ratio was 38.24x, positioned at the 58th percentile historically since 2016, indicating potential value for investors [4]. - Revenue and other income projections for 2025-2027 are HKD 28.4 billion, HKD 31.1 billion, and HKD 33.7 billion respectively, with net profit estimates of HKD 17.7 billion, HKD 18.7 billion, and HKD 20.6 billion, corresponding to PE ratios of 30.9, 29.2, and 26.4 times [4].