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香港交易所(00388.HK):港交所2月跟踪:联储降息预期下降致使海外流动性收紧 港股交投仍然维持历史高位
Ge Long Hui· 2026-03-13 06:04
Group 1: Market Performance - In February, the Hong Kong stock market experienced overall fluctuations, with the average daily trading volume (ADT) for the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) at HKD 246.8 billion, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 9.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.0% [1] - The Northbound trading ADT was HKD 380.7 billion, showing a month-on-month decrease of 16.1% but a year-on-year increase of 45.2%, while the Southbound trading ADT was HKD 114.2 billion, with month-on-month and year-on-year decreases of 14.1% and 28.6%, respectively [1] - The futures average daily volume (ADV) was 684,000 contracts, with a month-on-month increase of 3.8% but a year-on-year decrease of 25.5%, while the options ADV was 1,050,000 contracts, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 21.9% [1] Group 2: IPO and New Listings - In February, the Hong Kong IPO market saw significant growth, with 11 new stocks listed, totaling HKD 50 billion, representing a month-on-month increase of 18% and a year-on-year increase of 2364% [1] - The number of newly listed derivative warrants and callable bull/bear contracts was 924 and 2,688, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 13% and decreases of 12%, and month-on-month changes of -20% and +4% [1] Group 3: Interest Rates and Economic Indicators - As of the end of February, the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) for 6 months, 1 month, and overnight were 2.73%, 2.41%, and 2.55%, respectively, showing month-on-month decreases of 0.16 percentage points, 0.20 percentage points, and an increase of 0.37 percentage points for the overnight rate [1] - The U.S. overnight bank funding rate was 3.63%, remaining unchanged month-on-month, with year-on-year decreases across all HIBOR rates [1] Group 4: Macroeconomic Environment - The domestic economic outlook continues to decline, with the manufacturing PMI for February at 49.00%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.30 percentage points, indicating a contraction [2] - The new orders and new export orders indices for manufacturing were 48.6% and 45.0%, respectively, both showing month-on-month declines [2] - In the U.S., non-farm payrolls decreased by 92,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.40%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.1 percentage points, indicating a cooling job market [2] Group 5: Investment Outlook - As of March 9, 2026, the company's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio was 29.06x, positioned at the 12th percentile historically since 2016, suggesting a reasonable investment opportunity [3] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of HKD 365 billion, HKD 391 billion, and HKD 413 billion for 2026-2028, with net profits of HKD 226 billion, HKD 241 billion, and HKD 256 billion, corresponding to PE ratios of 22.9, 21.4, and 20.2 times, respectively [3]
香港交易所:港交所2月份跟踪:联储降息预期下降致使海外流动性收紧,港股交投仍然维持历史高-20260313
Changjiang Securities· 2026-03-13 00:40
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][51]. Core Views - As of March 9, 2026, the company's PE ratio is 29.06x, which is at the 12th percentile historically since 2016, indicating a certain level of value for allocation. It is expected that with the continuous enhancement of the mutual access policy in the Hong Kong capital market, liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market will continue to rise, leading to an increase in overall market activity and valuation. The company is projected to achieve revenue and other income of HKD 365 billion, 391 billion, and 413 billion for 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively, with net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 226 billion, 241 billion, and 256 billion, corresponding to PE valuations of 22.9x, 21.4x, and 20.2x respectively [2][51]. Summary by Sections Market Environment - The Hong Kong stock market remains active, with the overall trading volume at historical highs. In February, the average daily trading (ADT) for the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was HKD 2,468 billion, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 9.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.0%. The Northbound trading ADT was HKD 3,807 billion, down 16.1% month-on-month but up 45.2% year-on-year, while Southbound trading ADT was HKD 1,142 billion, down 14.1% month-on-month and down 28.6% year-on-year [6][16]. Derivatives Market - In February, both futures and options trading volumes increased month-on-month. The average daily volume (ADV) for futures was 68.4 million contracts, up 3.8% month-on-month but down 25.5% year-on-year. The ADV for options was 105.0 million contracts, up 0.2% month-on-month but down 21.9% year-on-year [19][20]. Primary Market - The IPO scale in the Hong Kong stock market saw significant growth in February, with a total of 24 new stocks listed, raising a total of HKD 923 billion, which is a year-on-year increase of 1052.4%. The average size of each IPO was HKD 38.5 billion, up 332.2% year-on-year. Notably, 42% of the new listings were from the information technology sector, contributing 48% of the total fundraising [31][32]. Investment Income - As of the end of February, the relevant interest rates for investment income showed a general decline. The 6-month HIBOR was 2.73%, the 1-month HIBOR was 2.41%, and the overnight HIBOR was 2.55%, reflecting month-on-month changes of -0.16 percentage points, -0.20 percentage points, and +0.37 percentage points respectively [41].
香港交易所(00388):港交所 2 月跟踪:联储降息预期下降致使海外流动性收紧,港股交投仍然维持历史高位
Changjiang Securities· 2026-03-12 09:07
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][6]. Core Insights - As of March 9, 2026, the company's PE ratio stands at 29.06x, which is in the 12th percentile historically since 2016, indicating a certain level of value for allocation. It is expected that with the continuous enhancement of the mutual access policy in the Hong Kong capital market, liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market will continue to rise, leading to an increase in overall market activity and valuation. The company is projected to achieve revenues and other income of HKD 365 billion, 391 billion, and 413 billion for 2026-2028, with net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 226 billion, 241 billion, and 256 billion, corresponding to PE valuations of 22.9x, 21.4x, and 20.2x respectively [2][52]. Company Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced overall fluctuations in February, with the trading activity of listed securities on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange remaining high. The monthly average daily turnover (ADT) for February was HKD 2,468 billion, reflecting a decrease of 9.4% month-on-month and 17.0% year-on-year. However, the overall trading activity remains at historical highs [8][11][17]. Market Environment - The overall market trading remains high, and performance is expected to grow alongside market increases. The total market capitalization of Hong Kong stocks as of the end of February 2026 was HKD 498.76 billion, up 27.5% year-on-year, despite a month-on-month decrease of 1.8% [9][11]. Derivatives Market - In the derivatives market, both futures and options trading volumes increased month-on-month. The average daily volume (ADV) for futures was 68.4 million contracts, up 3.8% month-on-month but down 25.5% year-on-year. The ADV for options was 105.0 million contracts, showing a slight increase of 0.2% month-on-month but a decrease of 21.9% year-on-year [21][22]. Primary Market - The IPO scale in the Hong Kong stock market saw significant growth in February, with a total of 24 new stocks listed, raising a total of HKD 923 billion, which is a year-on-year increase of 1052.4%. The average scale of each IPO was HKD 38.5 billion, up 332.2% year-on-year [31][32].
香港交易所(00388.HK)2025年报点评:港股交投维持高位叠加赴港上市步伐加快 整体业绩创历史新高
Ge Long Hui· 2026-03-03 05:56
Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong Stock Exchange reported strong financial performance for 2025, with revenue and net profit showing significant year-on-year growth, driven by increased trading activity and listing fees. Financial Performance - In 2025, the company achieved revenue and other income of HKD 29.161 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30.3% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached HKD 17.754 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 36.0% [1] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from trading and trading system usage fees increased by 43.73%, while listing fees rose by 20.55% [1] - Settlement and clearing fees grew by 49.29%, and custody and agency service fees increased by 31.15% [1] - Market data fees and investment income saw smaller increases of 7.83% and 3.73%, respectively [1] - The growth in trading and settlement fees was attributed to heightened trading activity in the cash, derivatives, and commodities segments [1] Trading Activity - The average daily turnover of stock securities on the exchange increased by 92.9% year-on-year [2] - The average daily turnover for Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect rose by 41.5% and 151.2%, respectively [1] - Derivatives trading fees grew by 10.3%, driven by increased activity in stock options and warrants [1] - The average daily trading volume of LME metal contracts increased by 7.7%, contributing to a 10.6% rise in commodity trading fees [1] Listing Fees - Listing fees from the cash market increased by 8.6%, with 119 new companies listed, raising funds that grew by 236.1% year-on-year [2] - Derivatives market listing fees rose by 38.4% to HKD 825 million, primarily due to a significant increase in new derivative warrants and structured products [2] Investment Income - In Q4 2025, the company reported net investment income of HKD 1.218 billion, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2% and a year-on-year increase of 20% [2] - The average investment amount increased by 20.08% year-on-year, while the annualized investment return rate decreased slightly to 1.32% [2] - The company's total investment income reached HKD 1.870 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.98% [2] Future Outlook - The liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue rising due to a series of connectivity policies, which may enhance overall market activity and valuations [3] - Projections for 2026-2028 indicate revenues of HKD 32.614 billion, HKD 34.403 billion, and HKD 36.326 billion, with net profits of HKD 20.353 billion, HKD 21.424 billion, and HKD 22.593 billion, respectively [3] - Corresponding PE valuations are expected to be 25.88, 24.58, and 23.31 times [3]
香港交易所:2025年报点评:港股交投维持高位叠加赴港上市步伐加快,整体业绩创历史新高-20260303
Changjiang Securities· 2026-03-03 00:45
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (00388.HK) [9] Core Views - The overall performance of Hong Kong Exchanges reached a historical high, with revenue and other income for 2025 amounting to HKD 291.61 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 177.54 billion, up 36.0% year-on-year [5][9] - The report anticipates that with a series of connectivity policies, market liquidity in Hong Kong will continue to rise, leading to increased market activity and valuation [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2025, the company achieved revenue of HKD 291.61 billion, representing a 30.3% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of HKD 177.54 billion, which is a 36.0% increase year-on-year [5][9] - Revenue breakdown by fee type shows significant growth: trading and trading system usage fees increased by 43.73%, listing fees by 20.55%, and settlement and clearing fees by 49.29% [9] Market Activity - The trading activity in the cash, derivatives, and commodities markets saw substantial increases, with the average daily turnover of stock securities rising by 92.9% year-on-year [9] - The report highlights that the number of new listings and the amount raised in the Hong Kong market have also increased significantly, with 119 new companies listed in 2025, raising funds that grew by 236.1% year-on-year [9] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenue and other income of HKD 326.14 billion, HKD 344.03 billion, and HKD 363.26 billion for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively, with net profits expected to be HKD 203.53 billion, HKD 214.24 billion, and HKD 225.93 billion [9][10] - Corresponding PE ratios are forecasted to be 25.88, 24.58, and 23.31 for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028 [9]
香港交易所(00388):2025年报点评:港股交投维持高位叠加赴港上市步伐加快,整体业绩创历史新高
Changjiang Securities· 2026-03-02 11:45
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][9]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange achieved record high overall performance in 2025, with revenue and other income reaching HKD 291.61 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30.3%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at HKD 177.54 billion, up 36.0% year-on-year [6][9]. - The report anticipates continued liquidity improvement in the Hong Kong stock market due to a series of connectivity policies, with projected revenues and other income for 2026-2028 at HKD 326.14 billion, HKD 344.03 billion, and HKD 363.26 billion, respectively [2][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2025, the company reported a revenue of HKD 291.61 billion, a 30.3% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of HKD 177.54 billion, reflecting a 36.0% growth [6][9]. - Revenue breakdown shows significant growth in trading and listing-related fees, with trading and transaction system usage fees increasing by 43.73%, listing fees by 20.55%, and settlement and clearing fees by 49.29% [9][10]. Market Activity - The report highlights a substantial increase in trading activity, with the average daily turnover of stock securities rising by 92.9% year-on-year, and significant increases in the average daily turnover for both Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect [9][10]. - The number of new listings in the stock market reached 119, with fundraising amounts increasing by 236.1% year-on-year, contributing to a rise in listing fees [9][10]. Future Projections - The company is expected to see continued revenue growth, with forecasts for net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 203.53 billion, HKD 214.24 billion, and HKD 225.93 billion for 2026-2028 [2][10]. - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the upcoming years are 25.88, 24.58, and 23.31, indicating a favorable valuation trend [2][10].
香港交易所(00388.HK)港交所1月跟踪:港股IPO预计延续强劲复苏态势 市场热度大幅提升
Ge Long Hui· 2026-02-17 21:47
Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance in January, with high trading activity expected to continue, leading to anticipated growth in the performance of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) [1][2]. Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market continued its upward trend, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 6.9% and 3.7% respectively compared to the end of 2025 [1]. - The average daily trading (ADT) for HKEX in January was HKD 272.3 billion, representing a month-on-month increase of 46.4% and a year-on-year increase of 89.3% [1]. - Northbound trading ADT reached HKD 407.7 billion, with month-on-month and year-on-year increases of 77.5% and 122.6% respectively [1]. - Southbound trading ADT was HKD 121.3 billion, with month-on-month and year-on-year increases of 45.0% and 96.2% respectively [1]. Derivatives Market - The futures average daily volume (ADV) was 658,000 contracts, showing month-on-month and year-on-year increases of 27.3% and 11.9% respectively [1]. - The options ADV was 1,048,000 contracts, with month-on-month and year-on-year increases of 27.4% and 21.3% respectively [1]. - As of the end of January, the ADT for structured products was HKD 22 billion, with month-on-month and year-on-year increases of 47.7% and 91.0% respectively [1]. IPO Market - In January, the IPO scale in the Hong Kong stock market reached HKD 41.7 billion, with month-on-month and year-on-year increases of 58% and 598% respectively [2]. - A total of 13 new stocks were listed in January, with new structured products also seeing significant increases in numbers [2]. Interest Rates - Investment income-related rates for HKEX showed a downward trend, with the 6-month HIBOR at 2.89%, down 0.10 percentage points month-on-month [2]. Macro Environment - Domestic economic indicators showed a decline, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.30%, indicating a contraction [2]. - The U.S. job market showed improvement, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 130,000, which may affect interest rate expectations [2]. Investment Outlook - As of February 9, 2026, the company's PE ratio was 30.86x, indicating a reasonable valuation compared to historical levels [3]. - The company is expected to achieve revenues of HKD 30.1 billion, HKD 35.7 billion, and HKD 38.4 billion for 2025-2027, with corresponding net profits of HKD 17.7 billion, HKD 21.3 billion, and HKD 22.8 billion [3]. - The company is rated as a buy, with expectations of increased market liquidity and valuation due to ongoing policy support for the Hong Kong capital market [3].
香港交易所(00388.HK)10月跟踪:港股交投处于历史高位 赴港上市持续贡献增量市值
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-23 04:41
Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market showed overall growth in October, with active trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, indicating a potential continuation of performance growth [1] Group 1: Market Performance - In October, the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech increased by 29.1% and 32.2% respectively compared to the end of 2024 [1] - The monthly average daily turnover (ADT) for the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was HKD 274.9 billion, showing a month-on-month decrease of 13.2% but a year-on-year increase of 7.8% [1] - Northbound trading had a monthly ADT of HKD 300.8 billion, with a month-on-month decrease of 11.5% and a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [1] - Southbound trading recorded a monthly ADT of HKD 144.4 billion, with a month-on-month decrease of 8.5% but a year-on-year increase of 42.3% [1] Group 2: Derivatives Market - In October, the average daily volume (ADV) for futures was 694,000 contracts, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.4% but a year-on-year decrease of 26.7% [1] - The ADV for options was 1.144 million contracts, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.2% [1] - As of the end of October, the ADT for structured products was HKD 24.1 billion, with month-on-month and year-on-year increases of 9.0% and 21.7% respectively [1] Group 3: IPO and New Listings - In October, there were 12 new IPOs in the Hong Kong stock market, totaling HKD 28.5 billion, which represents a month-on-month decrease of 46% but a year-on-year increase of 97% [1] - The number of newly listed structured products included 1,157 derivative warrants and 3,116 bull/bear certificates, with year-on-year changes of +16% and -26% respectively [1] Group 4: Interest Rates and Economic Environment - As of the end of October, the 6-month HIBOR was 3.45%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.04 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 0.75 percentage points [1] - The 1-month HIBOR was 3.43%, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.11 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 0.81 percentage points [1] - The overnight HIBOR was 3.86%, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.16 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 0.84 percentage points [1] Group 5: Investment Outlook - As of the end of October, the company's PE ratio was 34.77x, positioned at the 39th percentile historically since 2016, indicating a certain level of investment value [3] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of HKD 30.4 billion, HKD 33.4 billion, and HKD 35.8 billion for the years 2025-2027, with corresponding net profits of HKD 17.6 billion, HKD 18.8 billion, and HKD 20.5 billion [3] - The projected PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 30.4x, 28.4x, and 26.1x respectively, suggesting a buy rating [3]
香港交易所(00388):港交所10月跟踪:港股交投处于历史高位,赴港上市持续贡献增量市值
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-21 05:14
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][6]. Core Insights - As of the end of October, the company's PE ratio stands at 34.77x, which is in the 39th percentile historically since 2016, indicating a certain level of value for allocation. It is expected that with the continuous enhancement of the mutual access policy in the Hong Kong capital market, liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market will continue to rise, leading to an increase in overall market activity and valuation. The company is projected to achieve revenues and other income of 30.4 billion, 33.4 billion, and 35.8 billion HKD for 2025-2027, with net profits attributable to shareholders of 17.6 billion, 18.8 billion, and 20.5 billion HKD, corresponding to PE valuations of 30.4, 28.4, and 26.1 times respectively [2][52]. Market Environment - The Hong Kong stock market has shown a continued upward trend, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 29.1% and 32.2% respectively compared to the end of 2024. The average daily trading (ADT) for the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in October was 274.9 billion HKD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.8% but a month-on-month decrease of 13.2% [8][11][16]. - The overall market capitalization of Hong Kong stocks reached 48.14 trillion HKD by the end of October, with a year-on-year increase of 36.8% [9][11]. Business Segments - In the cash market, the average daily trading volume for northbound trading was 300.8 billion HKD, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.1% but a month-on-month decrease of 11.5%. Southbound trading reached 144.4 billion HKD, with a year-on-year increase of 42.3% and a month-on-month decrease of 8.5% [8][16]. - In the derivatives market, the average daily volume for futures was 694,000 contracts, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.4% but a year-on-year decrease of 26.7% [20]. - The LME daily trading volume increased to 792,000 contracts in October, with a year-on-year increase of 23.6% [26]. IPO Market - The IPO scale in the Hong Kong stock market maintained high growth, with 80 new companies listed from January to October 2025, raising a total of 2,162 billion HKD, which is a year-on-year increase of 208%. In October alone, 12 new stocks were listed, raising a total of 285 billion HKD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 97% [31][30].
香港交易所(00388):2025年三季报点评:港股交投维持高位,业绩创历史前三季新高
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-11 23:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (00388.HK) [2][9] Core Views - The report indicates that the Hong Kong stock market's liquidity is expected to continue to rise due to a series of connectivity policies, leading to increased market activity and valuation [2][6] - For the years 2025-2027, the company is projected to achieve revenues and other income of HKD 282.86 billion, HKD 304.18 billion, and HKD 322.14 billion, respectively, with net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 173.74 billion, HKD 188.57 billion, and HKD 200.92 billion, corresponding to PE ratios of 30.91, 28.48, and 26.73 times [2][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenues and other income of HKD 218.51 billion, a year-on-year increase of 36.63%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 134.19 billion, up 44.8% year-on-year [6][9] - Revenue growth was driven by significant increases in trading and transaction fees, listing fees, and settlement and clearing fees, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 57.28%, 17.08%, and 65.66% [6][9] Market Activity - The report highlights a substantial increase in trading activity across the cash, derivatives, and commodities markets, with daily average trading volumes for cash securities up 132.4% year-on-year [6][9] - The report notes that the number of new listings and the amount raised in the first three quarters of 2025 saw significant growth, with new listings totaling 69 and fundraising amounts increasing by 258.5% [6][9] Investment Income - Investment income for Q3 2025 was reported at HKD 10.18 billion, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decline of 16% and a year-on-year decrease of 34% [6][9] - The annualized investment return rate for margin and clearing house fund investments decreased by 0.15 percentage points to 1.46% [6][9] Future Projections - The report anticipates continued growth in revenues and profits for the company, driven by favorable market conditions and policy support, with projected revenues of HKD 282.86 billion in 2025, HKD 304.18 billion in 2026, and HKD 322.14 billion in 2027 [2][10]