智通财经APP获悉，截至8月23日，恒指最新的牛熊街货比例为73:27。 牛证街货重货区在24700-24799区间，该区间最新牛证数量为1493张，较上一交易日减少67张;牛证街货最多新增在 24900-24999区间，该区间最新牛证数量为502张，较上一交易日增加419张。 | 牛證街貨 | | | - 但指牛態證期指張數比例 - | | | 明星期出 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 72.97% | | | | | | 27.03% | | (12,287張) | | | (以相對期指張數計算) | | | (4,552引) | | 指數品城 | 相對期指張數[括號內為一日變化] | | | | 信證借錢 | 审營精桿 | | 26,200 - 26,299 | 207(-43) | | | | 62444 HE | 25.1 | | 26,100 - 26,199 | 331(-54) | | | | 58098 HE | 28.8 | | 26,000 - 26,099 | 409(+44) | | | 最多新增 | 55321 期 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (0388.HK) [1] Core Views - The report highlights a significant increase in performance driven by high market activity, with the IPO market returning to the global forefront [1] - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of HKD 14.076 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 32.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 8.519 billion, up 39.1% year-on-year [1] Revenue Structure - The revenue structure shows a continued rise in market activity, leading to an increase in the proportion of trading and settlement fees. In the first half of 2025, trading and trading system usage fees, settlement and clearing fees, and custody services accounted for 62.0% of total revenue, up 5.9 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The listing fees from the Stock Exchange accounted for 5.8% of total revenue, down 1.0 percentage point year-on-year, while net investment income accounted for 20.4%, down 3.3 percentage points year-on-year [2] Market Activity - The report notes that the stock market's trading activity remains robust, with the IPO fundraising amount returning to the top globally. In the first half of 2025, the total amount raised through IPOs reached HKD 109.4 billion, a staggering increase of 716% year-on-year [4] - The average daily turnover of Hong Kong stocks reached HKD 1.110 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 196%, indicating a significant rise in participation from mainland investors [3] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the total revenue from the cash segment, including trading and settlement fees, reached HKD 5.995 billion, a year-on-year increase of 71% [3] - The report projects that the company will maintain high trading volumes in 2025, benefiting from the favorable conditions in the Hong Kong capital market and the valuation recovery of Chinese stocks [9] Earnings Forecast - The report raises the earnings forecast for the company, estimating EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be HKD 13.72, HKD 15.03, and HKD 16.90 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 32, 29, and 26 times [9] - The target price is set at HKD 494.0, based on a 36 times PE valuation for 2025 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (00388.HK) [1] Core Views - The company achieved record high semi-annual performance with total revenue and other income reaching HKD 141 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at HKD 85 billion, up 39% year-on-year [7] - The significant growth in performance is attributed to improved investment sentiment supported by mainland policies, leading to increased participation from mainland investors in offshore markets, which boosted trading volumes in the Hong Kong stock market [7] - The report forecasts continued strong growth for the company, with expected shareholder profits of HKD 174.19 billion, HKD 192.62 billion, and HKD 207.88 billion for 2025-2027, corresponding to growth rates of 33%, 11%, and 8% respectively [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue (in million HKD) for 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E is projected at 20,516, 22,374, 27,785, 30,524, and 32,970 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.16%, 9.06%, 24.18%, 9.86%, and 8.01% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders (in million HKD) for the same years is expected to be 11,862, 13,050, 17,419, 19,262, and 20,788, with growth rates of 17.70%, 10.02%, 33.48%, 10.58%, and 7.92% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 9.36, 10.29, 13.74, 15.19, and 16.40 for the years 2023A to 2027E [1] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is HKD 441.20, with a market capitalization of approximately HKD 559.37 billion [5] - The stock has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 47.16 for 2023, decreasing to 26.91 by 2027 [1][5] - The company has a book value per share of HKD 44.89 and a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 9.83 [6][5]

Group 1 - The latest bull-bear ratio of the Hang Seng Index is 66:34 as of August 12 [1] - The heavy zone for bear certificates is in the range of 25,300 to 25,399, with a total of 895 bear certificates, an increase of 72 from the previous trading day [1] - The heavy zone for bull certificates is in the range of 24,300 to 24,399, with a total of 1,084 bull certificates, a decrease of 160 from the previous trading day [1] Group 2 - The most significant increase in bull certificates is in the range of 24,600 to 24,699, with a total of 690 bull certificates, an increase of 186 from the previous trading day [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (388) with a target price of HKD 500.0, representing a potential upside of 15.8% from the previous closing price [5][32]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong financial market is experiencing a robust recovery, with multiple indicators reaching historical highs. The average daily trading volume for the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) in the first half of 2025 reached HKD 240.2 billion, a significant increase of 118% year-on-year, marking the highest level since 2010 [3][8]. - The market capitalization of the Hong Kong market increased to HKD 42.7 trillion by the end of June 2025, reflecting a 33% year-on-year growth, driven by the recovery of Chinese mainland economic conditions and the optimization of listing regulations by HKEX [4][15]. - The report highlights the strong performance of various market segments, including a 195% year-on-year increase in the average daily trading volume of the Stock Connect program, indicating a significant rise in participation from mainland investors [10][15]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The average daily trading volume for HKEX reached HKD 240.2 billion in the first half of 2025, up from HKD 110.4 billion in the same period of 2024, marking a 118% increase [8]. - The Stock Connect program's average daily trading volume was HKD 110.96 billion, a 195% increase year-on-year, showcasing enhanced participation from mainland investors [10][15]. - The derivatives market also showed strong growth, with average daily trading volume for futures and options increasing by 11% year-on-year, and the trading volume for RMB currency futures rising by 43% [3][10]. Market Capitalization and New Listings - As of June 30, 2025, the total market capitalization of Hong Kong reached HKD 42.7 trillion, a 33% increase from HKD 32.1 trillion a year earlier [4][15]. - In the first half of 2025, HKEX processed over 200 listing applications, with new stock financing totaling USD 14.1 billion, a staggering 695% increase year-on-year [4][15]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts total revenue for HKEX to reach HKD 26.1 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.7% [7]. - Net profit is projected to be HKD 15.2 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of 16.6% [7]. - The report anticipates a diluted earnings per share of HKD 12.0 for 2025, representing a 16.6% increase from the previous year [7]. Regulatory Environment - HKEX announced a series of optimized listing rules effective August 4, 2025, aimed at lowering barriers to entry and enhancing market competitiveness [22]. - The new regulations include reducing the minimum public float requirement from 15% to 10%, which is expected to attract more quality companies to list in Hong Kong [25][22]. Investment Themes - The report emphasizes two main investment themes: growth driven by technology and stable dividend yields from undervalued state-owned enterprises [26][27]. - It highlights opportunities in the AI sector, electric vehicles, and innovative pharmaceuticals, alongside a focus on undervalued state-owned enterprises benefiting from policy support [26][27].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is experiencing a downward trend, with investors anticipating further declines, particularly around the 24600 level, while some see support at 24700 and are considering bullish options with a recovery price of 24200 [1] - Technical signals for the index are neutral, indicating a 50% probability of either rising or falling as it approaches the middle line of the Bollinger Bands [1] Kuaishou Technology (01024.HK) - The stock price is nearing the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands, with a strong buy signal indicated by 16 buy signals and 1 sell signal [3] - Resistance levels are identified at 81 and 87.1, while support is close to 69.7, aligning with investor expectations around 70 [3] Kingsoft Corporation (03888.HK) - The stock is showing resilience in a declining market, stabilizing above the recent low of 34.7, with a target range of 38-40 [6] - Technical signals suggest a buy, with resistance at 37.9 and support at 33.7 and 32.6 [7] Pop Mart International (09992.HK) - The stock closed at 246, with a sell signal indicated, and primary support identified at 236 [10] - Investors are holding put options with a strike price of 178.78, which may be too far from the current price, leading to lower price sensitivity [10] Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (00981.HK) - The stock opened high but closed at 51.1 after reaching a peak of 52.95, with a recent volatility of 9.2% [13] - Technical signals indicate a buy with 13 buy signals and 4 sell signals, resistance levels at 54.2 and 56.8, and support at 47.2 and 45.2 [13][14] Sands China Ltd. (01928.HK) - The stock closed at 19.04, maintaining position above the middle line of the Bollinger Bands [17] - A buy signal is indicated, with resistance at 19.6 and 20, and support at 18.3 and 17.3 [17][20]

Market Overview - The total market capitalization of the securities market reached HKD 42.7 trillion at the end of June 2025, a 33% increase from HKD 32.1 trillion in the same period last year [1] - The average daily trading amount in June 2025 was HKD 230.2 billion, up 107% from HKD 111.2 billion in June 2024 [1] - The average daily trading amount for the first six months of 2025 was HKD 240.2 billion, a rise of 118% compared to HKD 110.4 billion in the same period last year [1] Derivative Products - The average daily trading amount for derivative warrants in the first half of 2025 was HKD 7.8 billion, an increase of 70% from HKD 4.6 billion in the same period last year [3] - The average daily trading amount for bull and bear certificates in the first half of 2025 was HKD 9.6 billion, up 78% from HKD 5.4 billion year-on-year [3] Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) - The average daily trading amount for exchange-traded funds in the first half of 2025 was HKD 33.8 billion, a significant increase of 184% from HKD 11.9 billion in the same period last year [2] New Listings and Fundraising - There were 44 new listed companies in the first half of 2025, a 47% increase from 30 in the same period last year [3] - The total fundraising amount from initial public offerings (IPOs) in the first half of 2025 was HKD 107.1 billion, a staggering increase of 699% from HKD 13.4 billion year-on-year [3] - The total fundraising amount for the first half of 2025 reached HKD 280.8 billion, up 322% from HKD 66.5 billion in the same period last year [3] Futures and Options - The average daily trading volume for futures and options in the first half of 2025 was 1,700,322 contracts, an 11% increase from 1,532,608 contracts in the same period last year [4] - The average daily trading volume for stock options was 868,128 contracts, a 25% increase from 695,757 contracts year-on-year [5] - The average daily trading volume for stock futures was 9,071 contracts, a 9% increase from 8,306 contracts in the same period last year [6] - The average daily trading volume for RMB currency futures was 115,150 contracts, a 43% increase from 80,609 contracts year-on-year [7]

Group 1 - The core idea of the discussion revolves around the daily review of the Hong Kong stock market, focusing on individual stocks and the Hang Seng Index, to help investors understand market changes and trading signals [2][3] - The company emphasizes the importance of data-driven communication, providing insights into trading signals and market trends to assist investors in making informed decisions [3][4][6] - The analysis highlights a tendency among investors to prefer short-term trading strategies rather than long-term holding, which is attributed to the perceived risks associated with longer holding periods [4][5][6] Group 2 - The company utilizes a database that is updated daily to provide timely analysis of stock performance, including significant market fluctuations [7][11] - Technical analysis signals are summarized into four categories: buy, strong buy, sell, and strong sell, simplifying the communication of trading signals to investors [10][12] - The analysis of support and resistance levels is crucial for investors, especially those trading in structured products like warrants and bull-bear certificates, as it helps in assessing risk and making strategic decisions [13][14][16] Group 3 - The discussion includes specific examples of stocks such as Tencent and Alibaba, providing insights into their current trading signals and potential price movements based on technical analysis [15][16] - The company encourages investors to consider risk management when selecting products, particularly in relation to support and resistance levels, to mitigate potential losses [13][14] - The session concludes with an invitation for further questions and discussions on structured products, indicating a commitment to ongoing investor education and engagement [17][19]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,827, with investors believing there is still a chance to reach 24,000-24,200 points, although some are starting to deploy bearish options due to concerns of a short-term peak [1] - The index shows limited short-term upward movement and is near significant resistance levels at 24,000 and 24,100 [1] Company Analysis Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL) - CATL closed at 337.4 HKD, with investors speculating whether it can challenge 350 HKD in the short term [3] - The stock has shown strong momentum, and despite being newly listed, it has seen significant trading volume, surpassing major blue-chip stocks [3] Geely Automobile Holdings Limited - Geely closed at 20.35 HKD, maintaining an upward trend with a strong buy signal [6] - The stock is approaching resistance at 20.8 HKD, with a significant support level at 20.3 HKD [6] Bilibili Inc. - Bilibili closed at 146 HKD, with investors questioning if 150 HKD is a major resistance level [9] - The stock is in a sideways trend but is close to the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, with a resistance level identified at 155.8 HKD [9] Trip.com Group Limited - Trip.com closed at 500 HKD, with investors considering whether to enter at a low of 491 HKD [11] - Key support levels are at 481.9 HKD and 471 HKD, with active trading in bull and bear certificates [11] Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited - The stock closed at 391.6 HKD, with investors asking if it can challenge 400-410 HKD in the short term [14] - The stock is showing a strong buy signal, with resistance levels at 399 HKD and 401 HKD, and a second resistance at 425 HKD [14]