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天佑德酒(002646):坚定长期主义,积极布局新品
Guotou Securities· 2026-02-10 11:33
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate-A" with a target price of 9.8 CNY over the next six months [6]. Core Views - The company is expected to face a decline in net profit for 2025, with estimates ranging from 4.21 to 6.32 million CNY, representing a year-on-year decrease of 85% to 90% [1]. - The decline in performance is attributed to industry pressures and insufficient recovery in core consumption scenarios, leading to an anticipated revenue drop of up to 13% for the year [2]. - The company is focusing on product iteration and channel development, targeting the mass consumer market with new product launches and enhancing brand engagement through marketing initiatives [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a revenue of over 211 million CNY for Q4 2025, with a year-on-year decline of less than 21.14% [1]. - The projected revenue growth rates for 2025 to 2027 are -13.0%, 4.5%, and 7.1%, respectively, while net profit growth rates are expected to be -94.5%, 765.6%, and 97.6% [5][10]. Market Strategy - The company is shifting its marketing strategy from broad campaigns to targeted empowerment, utilizing events and promotions to strengthen consumer connections and drive sales [3]. - New product lines, such as the 28-degree lemon-flavored and 43-degree sherry barley wines, are aimed at capturing younger consumers and expanding the customer base [3]. Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term performance pressures, the company is expected to leverage its established brand and market presence to increase market share as the industry recovers [4]. - The company is also making strides in international markets, with its Tashi barley wine entering trial sales in the U.S. Costco [3].