Summary of Global Potash Market Outlook 2026 Industry Overview - The global potash supply and demand is expected to remain in the range of 75-80 million tons, with a projected consumption growth of 1.3% in 2026, driven primarily by an increase of 800,000 tons in China, while Southeast Asia is expected to see a decline of 500,000 tons due to palm oil market conditions [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Supply and Demand Dynamics - In 2025, global potash production is projected to be approximately equal to consumption, with various forecasts estimating production between 73.63 million tons and 77.10 million tons, reflecting a growth of 1% to 2% [2][3]. - China's apparent consumption of potassium oxide is estimated at 12.84 million tons in 2025, with chlorinated potash accounting for 19.10 million tons [2]. Major Consumer Markets - Major potash consumption markets in 2025 include: - India: 3.6 million tons - United States: 8.8 million tons - Brazil: 14 million tons - Southeast Asia: 9.4 million tons - CIS and Europe: 10.5 million tons [3]. Supply Forecasts - Canada remains the largest supplier, with Nutrien and Mosaic expected to produce 14.3 million tons and 8.3 million tons, respectively. Russia follows with 15.7 million tons, primarily from Uralkali and EuroChem [4][5]. Price Trends and Market Influences - The signing of a significant contract in November 2025 at $348 per ton has established a price floor for the global market [6][7]. - The global grain storage-to-consumption ratio has decreased to 26.7%, indicating increasing food scarcity, which supports fertilizer demand [7]. - The cost curve for the industry is expected to rise, with the 90th percentile site cost projected to increase to $243 per ton in 2026 [9]. Inventory Levels - As of early 2025, China's total potash inventory was stable at around 3.82 million tons, while Brazil's inventory is at a near three-year low of less than 1 million tons, providing price support [11]. Geopolitical and Trade Policy Impacts - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has led to increased shipping costs, with freight rates from Vancouver to China rising by 13% [12][13]. - Trade policies between the U.S. and Canada are unlikely to significantly impact the potash industry, as potash has been exempted from tariffs under the U.S.-Canada Free Trade Agreement [14]. Additional Important Insights - The potash industry is expected to face downward pressure in the medium term (3-5 years) due to the release of new capacities, while the long-term outlook may see opportunities for consolidation and mergers [8]. - The cost structure varies significantly by region, with Russian and Belarusian producers generally having lower costs compared to Canadian producers, whose costs are affected by high tax rates [9][10].

1、本次所涉拍卖标的为青海富康矿业资产管理有限公司（以下简称"富康矿业"）持有青海锦泰钾肥有 限公司（以下简称"青海锦泰"）对应出资额为人民币3,036.6421万元（当前折合持股比例为15%）的股 权。 深圳市兆新能源股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于2025年7月24日、2025年8月26日在指定信息披露媒 体巨潮资讯网披露了《关于公司申请对富康矿业所持青海锦泰15%股权进行司法拍卖的提示性公告》、 《关于公司申请对富康矿业所持青海锦泰15%股权进行司法拍卖的进展公告》，青海省西宁市中级人民 法院于2025年8月23日10时至2025年8月24日10时止在阿里巴巴司法拍卖网络平台对该拍卖标的进行了第 一次公开拍卖，拍卖结果为流拍。 2、本次司法拍卖事项，经综合评估与分析，不会对公司持续经营能力造成不利影响。若拍卖顺利完 成，将有利于优化公司资产结构、提升资产质量，增强资产的稳健性与增值潜力；同时，也能为公司集 中资源、聚焦主业发展创造有利条件，进而为公司提升盈利能力奠定基础。本次拍卖对公司财务状况的 具体影响，需以拍卖最终完成后的实际情况为准。 3、本次司法拍卖事项尚处于拍卖公示阶段，根据相关规定，法院有 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is proceeding with a second judicial auction of a 15% stake in Qinghai Jintai held by Fukan Mining, with the auction scheduled for September 17-18, 2025, after the first auction ended without a sale [1][2][3]. Group 1: Auction Details - The stake corresponds to an investment amount of RMB 30.366421 million, with a starting price of RMB 432 million and a deposit of RMB 50 million required for bidders [2][3]. - The auction's starting price is set at 80% of the previous auction's starting price of RMB 54 million, based on the overall valuation of Qinghai Jintai at RMB 4 billion [3]. Group 2: Company Impact - Successful completion of the auction is expected to optimize the company's asset structure, enhance asset quality, and improve the potential for asset appreciation [1][4]. - The auction is anticipated to allow the company to concentrate resources on its core business, thereby laying a foundation for improved profitability [4].