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蜜雪冰城(2097.HK)首次覆盖报告:平价茶饮王者持续跨界 平台型连锁龙头可期
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-19 20:57
Core Viewpoint - The tea beverage industry is experiencing a significant expansion, with brands that possess comprehensive capabilities expected to dominate and maintain leadership positions in their respective price segments. Higher price tiers will see a more diverse range of brands catering to specific consumer needs, while second and third-tier brands are anticipated to stabilize after rapid expansion and closures, with local long-tail brands following suit [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - Mixue is expanding its presence in the domestic market and actively pursuing international growth, positioning itself in the affordable market segment with a strong brand identity. As of mid-2025, Mixue is projected to have over 53,000 stores, including 4,733 overseas locations across 13 countries as of September [1]. - Luckin Coffee is rapidly expanding nationwide, with a focus on franchise support policies introduced over three consecutive months. By the end of August 2025, Luckin Coffee is expected to have signed over 8,200 stores, placing it among the leaders in China's freshly brewed coffee market [2]. - Fulu Family, a leader in the craft beer chain market, is expected to have around 1,200 stores by the end of August 2025, indicating promising market penetration and growth potential in the fresh beer sector [2]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Operational Efficiency - The company is enhancing its self-supply ratio, solidifying its core supply chain advantages. The central factory in Henan, along with four dedicated raw material processing locations, enables efficient supply. The company provides 100% self-produced core beverage ingredients to franchisees, with some self-produced packaging reducing costs by approximately 50% compared to external sourcing [2]. - The integration of digital logistics and automated warehousing is improving logistical efficiency, supporting a global network of stores [2]. Group 3: Investment Outlook - The main brand is expected to monopolize the sinking market while expanding internationally. Luckin Coffee's rapid store openings will leverage scale advantages, and Fulu Family will serve as a critical validation brand for category expansion and operational capability replication, benefiting from the industry's increasing penetration and growth in the sinking market [2]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 5.9 billion, 6.5 billion, and 7.7 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with current stock prices reflecting a PE ratio of 24, 22, and 19 times respectively, leading to an "overweight" rating [2].