Core Insights - The "Cyber Monday" shopping event in the U.S. marks a significant period for online retail, with Chinese companies playing a crucial role in the supply chain [1] - Chinese sellers have surpassed 50% of Amazon's global active sellers, indicating their growing influence in the e-commerce landscape [1] Group 1: Preparation for Shopping Season - Chinese suppliers need to prepare well in advance for the overseas shopping season due to the lengthy logistics involved in shipping and warehousing [2] - The competition has shifted from merely competing on price to a more comprehensive approach that includes product quality, personalization, and environmental considerations [2][3] - Companies are focusing on optimizing their supply chains through digital transformation and production process improvements to enhance efficiency and flexibility [3] Group 2: Role in Supply Chain - The role of Chinese companies in "Cyber Monday" extends beyond sales on platforms; it involves deeper participation in the entire supply chain [4] - Chinese merchants are becoming key players on various cross-border platforms, employing data tools for inventory management and targeted marketing strategies [4] - The shift from "single-point export" to "chain operation" enhances the bargaining power and risk resilience of Chinese businesses in the global market [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - As online shopping habits solidify among U.S. consumers, the boundaries of "Cyber Monday" will blur, presenting both opportunities and challenges for Chinese companies [5] - Companies need to enhance supply chain resilience, optimize cost control, and diversify market strategies to improve their performance in future shopping seasons [5]

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the recent stock performance of Mixue Group, which saw an increase of over 3% during trading, attributed to the company's new breakfast product initiative and positive financial outlook from analysts [1]. Company Developments - Mixue Group's stock rose by 2.81%, reaching 424.6 HKD with a trading volume of 96.6871 million HKD [1]. - The company is testing a "breakfast plan" in select cities including Dalian, Xi'an, Nanning, and Hangzhou, featuring products priced at 5 HKD each, such as various milk options [1]. - Currently, there is no plan for a large-scale rollout of the breakfast products [1]. Analyst Insights - Western Securities expressed optimism regarding the company's supply chain operational capabilities and the potential for expanding different product categories [1]. - Jianyin International noted that Mixue Group's performance in the first half of the year exceeded expectations, demonstrating resilience despite the normalization of delivery subsidies [1]. - The firm projects a revenue growth of 25.4% and a net profit growth of 17% for Mixue Ice City by the second half of 2025 [1].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Mixue Group, is testing a breakfast product line in select cities, which has led to a positive market reaction reflected in its stock price increase [1] Group 1: Product Development - Mixue Group is conducting a trial for its breakfast offerings in cities such as Dalian, Xi'an, Nanning, and Hangzhou, with products priced at 5 yuan each [1] - The initial breakfast product lineup includes four dairy options: Breakfast Coconut Milk, Breakfast Five Red Milk, Breakfast Five Black Milk, and Breakfast Corn Milk [1] - There is currently no plan for a large-scale rollout of the breakfast products [1] Group 2: Market Performance - The stock price of Mixue Group rose by over 3% during trading, with a current price of 424.6 HKD and a trading volume of 96.6871 million HKD [1] - Western Securities has expressed optimism regarding the company's supply chain capabilities and its potential for expanding different product categories [1] - According to Jianyin International, Mixue Group's performance in the first half of the year exceeded expectations, showing resilience despite the normalization of delivery subsidies [1] - Jianyin International projects a revenue growth of 25.4% and a net profit growth of 17% for Mixue Ice City by the second half of 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The tea beverage industry is experiencing a significant expansion, with brands that possess comprehensive capabilities expected to dominate and maintain leadership positions in their respective price segments. Higher price tiers will see a more diverse range of brands catering to specific consumer needs, while second and third-tier brands are anticipated to stabilize after rapid expansion and closures, with local long-tail brands following suit [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - Mixue is expanding its presence in the domestic market and actively pursuing international growth, positioning itself in the affordable market segment with a strong brand identity. As of mid-2025, Mixue is projected to have over 53,000 stores, including 4,733 overseas locations across 13 countries as of September [1]. - Luckin Coffee is rapidly expanding nationwide, with a focus on franchise support policies introduced over three consecutive months. By the end of August 2025, Luckin Coffee is expected to have signed over 8,200 stores, placing it among the leaders in China's freshly brewed coffee market [2]. - Fulu Family, a leader in the craft beer chain market, is expected to have around 1,200 stores by the end of August 2025, indicating promising market penetration and growth potential in the fresh beer sector [2]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Operational Efficiency - The company is enhancing its self-supply ratio, solidifying its core supply chain advantages. The central factory in Henan, along with four dedicated raw material processing locations, enables efficient supply. The company provides 100% self-produced core beverage ingredients to franchisees, with some self-produced packaging reducing costs by approximately 50% compared to external sourcing [2]. - The integration of digital logistics and automated warehousing is improving logistical efficiency, supporting a global network of stores [2]. Group 3: Investment Outlook - The main brand is expected to monopolize the sinking market while expanding internationally. Luckin Coffee's rapid store openings will leverage scale advantages, and Fulu Family will serve as a critical validation brand for category expansion and operational capability replication, benefiting from the industry's increasing penetration and growth in the sinking market [2]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 5.9 billion, 6.5 billion, and 7.7 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with current stock prices reflecting a PE ratio of 24, 22, and 19 times respectively, leading to an "overweight" rating [2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [5]. Core Viewpoints - The tea beverage industry is characterized as a high-quality track with continuous expansion driven by supply and demand [2][46]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the affordable tea beverage market, leveraging its strong brand and supply chain capabilities to penetrate both domestic and international markets [2][3]. - The report highlights the company's strategic expansion through its main brand, Lucky Coffee, and the craft beer brand, Fulu Family, which are expected to enhance operational capabilities and market presence [3][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The tea beverage industry is experiencing a long-term growth phase, with a projected market size of 746.4 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 19% year-on-year increase [50]. - The market is dominated by brands that can meet diverse consumer needs, particularly in the lower price segments [46][50]. 2. Company Performance - As of mid-2025, the company operates over 53,000 stores, with a significant number located overseas, indicating robust international expansion [2][20]. - The company reported revenues of 20.3 billion yuan in 2023, with a growth rate of 49.6%, and expects to reach 33.49 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a 34.9% growth rate [3][21]. 3. Supply Chain and Operational Efficiency - The company has achieved a self-supply ratio of 100% for core beverage ingredients, significantly reducing costs by approximately 50% compared to external procurement [2][5]. - The integration of digital logistics and automated warehousing has enhanced the company's operational efficiency, supporting its global expansion strategy [2][3]. 4. Financial Projections - The report forecasts net profits of 5.94 billion yuan, 6.54 billion yuan, and 7.68 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 24, 22, and 19 [3][16]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to grow from 8.39 yuan in 2023 to 15.66 yuan in 2025 [3][21]. 5. Competitive Landscape - The competitive environment in the tea beverage sector is intensifying, with an increasing number of brands vying for market share, particularly in lower-tier cities [46][60]. - The company maintains a strong market position, with a market share of 11.3% by gross merchandise value (GMV) and 6.5% by store count as of 2023 [57][58].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The company is committed to creating long - term and stable returns for shareholders, with a high - proportion and stable dividend policy. It also has a clear plan for future development, aiming to become an international leading supply - chain operator and enhance its overall competitiveness through multiple strategies [24][25][30]. - The company's supply - chain business has achieved good results in international layout, market share, and profitability, and will further improve its performance through professional, international, digital, and other means [26][27][30]. - The company's real - estate business, represented by Jianfa Real Estate, has a clear development strategy to maintain its industry advantage, focusing on product innovation, service improvement, inventory management, and industrial chain synergy [40][41][42]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Basic Research Situation - Research object: Jianfa Co., Ltd. - Industry: Trading industry - Reception time: May 15, 2025 - Reception personnel: Chairman Lin Mao, Independent Director Wu Yuhui, Deputy General Manager and Board Secretary Jiang Guizhi, and Financial Controller Wei Zhuo [17] 3.2. Detailed Research Institutions The reception objects include investors' online questions and others [20] 3.3. Research Institution Proportion No information about the research institution proportion is provided in the report. 3.4. Main Content - **Dividend Policy**: In 2024, the company's total cash - dividend plan was 0.7 yuan per share (tax - included), with a total dividend of 2,062,966,640.70 yuan. The dividend ratio in 2024 was 70.03% of the net profit attributable to the parent company, an 11.32 - percentage - point increase from the previous year. The company promised to distribute at least 30% of the available distributable profit and no less than 0.7 yuan per share in 2024 and 2025. It also actively explored multiple - time - a - year dividend methods [24][25] - **Supply - Chain Business - International Layout**: By the end of 2024, the company had over 50 overseas companies and offices, with overseas business exceeding 10 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of about 12%. Business with ASEAN, RCEP, APEC, and Belt and Road countries increased by about 30%, 28%, 17%, and 17% respectively [26] - **Supply - Chain Business - Market Share and Profitability**: In 2024, the company's main commodities' operating volume exceeded 220 million tons, an increase of nearly 8% year - on - year. The supply - chain business achieved a net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.506 billion yuan in 2024 and 848 million yuan in Q1 2025, a 9.72% year - on - year increase [27] - **Supply - Chain Business - Future Profitability Improvement**: The company will adhere to professional, international, and digital development, and strengthen logistics and investment support. It will focus on core categories, expand overseas markets, integrate AI and digital technologies, and optimize the global logistics network and resource investment [30][31] - **ESG Performance**: The company adheres to the concept of sustainable development, improves the ESG management system, and its international and domestic ESG scores and ratings are continuously increasing. The international score from S&P has jumped from 28 to 45 points, ranking among the top 12% globally [33] - **Assisting Industrial Customers to Go Global**: The company provides a customized "LITF" supply - chain service system, including logistics, information, finance, and business services. It has successful cases such as the Malaysia United Iron and Steel Project, Qing Shan Industry, and Zhejiang Xinshengda and Shandong Sun Paper [34][38][39] - **Real - Estate Business - Jianfa Real Estate's Future Strategy**: Jianfa Real Estate will focus on product innovation, service improvement, inventory management, industrial chain synergy, and digital transformation to maintain its industry advantage [40][41][42] - **Real - Estate Business - Land Reserve**: In 2024, the company acquired 26 high - quality land parcels with a total acquisition cost of 63.5 billion yuan, 97% of which were in first - and second - tier cities. By the end of 2024, the unsold land - reserve value in first - and second - tier cities accounted for about 80%, a 6 - percentage - point increase from the previous year [43] - **Real - Estate Market Outlook and Investment Strategy**: The real - estate market is expected to bottom out, with increasing differentiation. The company will maintain a cautious and positive attitude in land investment, focusing on core cities [45] - **Good - House Definition and Product Strategy**: The company explores the concept of "good houses" in terms of green environmental protection, low - carbon energy conservation, intelligence, and safety. It has launched relevant product projects and will continue to improve product competitiveness [46][48] - **Other Issues**: The company has no plan to merge Lianfa Group and Jianfa Real Estate. The Yanggu Jianfa plans to produce 400,000 tons of cathode copper in 2025, and the Jianfa Shenghai project is expected to be put into operation in May 2026. The company has the possibility of mid - year dividends in 2025 and will explore other market - value management tools [53][55][56]