Macro Strategy - The macro timing model for January 2026 has a score of 0, indicating a 76.92% probability of the A-share index rising, with an average increase of 3.18% historically [1][7][19] - The trading volume of the index exceeded 20 trillion yuan in the last week of 2025, indicating a recovery in trading sentiment [1][7] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised the futures margin ratio twice at the end of December 2025, causing significant volatility in the metals sector [1][7] ETF Recommendations - The report recommends a growth-oriented ETF allocation based on the optimistic market outlook for January [1][7] - Notable inflows were observed in ETFs related to robotics, industrial non-ferrous metals, and satellite communications, suggesting increased investor interest in these sectors [1][7] Hong Kong Market - The listing of Wallen Technology and the strong performance of the Hang Seng Technology Index on January 2, 2026, particularly in the semiconductor sector, indicate potential for good absolute returns in the Hong Kong market during the spring rally [1][7][19] Nasdaq 100 ETF Insights - The Nasdaq 100 index experienced a 0.73% decline in December 2025, influenced by cautious sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision and concerns over AI company earnings [5][22] - As of December 31, 2025, the Nasdaq 100 index had a PE ratio of 35.93, indicating it is at a relatively high historical valuation [5][22] - The index is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend in January 2026, driven by macroeconomic signals and earnings reports from major tech companies [5][22][23] Industry Analysis - The report highlights the importance of the AI and semiconductor sectors, which are expected to see increased attention and funding in early 2026 due to positive sentiment and demand recovery [2][21] - The gaming sector is also benefiting from the regular issuance of game licenses, providing marginal support to content-related stocks [2][21] Company-Specific Insights - The report discusses the performance of specific companies such as the Honey Snow Group, which is positioned as a leading player in the affordable beverage market with a strong supply chain and brand recognition [13] - North Huachuang is noted for its platform-based semiconductor equipment leadership, benefiting from increased capital expenditure and domestic production rate improvements [15]

东吴证券发布研报称，蜜雪集团(02097)作为平价现制饮品龙头，高质价比单品及IP化品牌营销不断巩 固销售势能，单店盈利持续具备强竞争力，份额提升路径清晰。预计公司2025~2027年归母净利为 58.5、65.2、73.0亿元，同比+32%、+12%、+12%，对应PE为24、21、19x，维持"买入"评级。 东吴证券主要观点如下： 高质平价，1美元生意成就国民饮品龙头 现磨咖啡需求萌动，品牌竞发卡位争流 现磨咖啡是国内现饮增速最快的细分品类，目前尚处于市场教育阶段。此外，伴随互联网用户下沉、咖 啡文化普及，咖啡下沉需求萌动。"幸运咖"以低线市场为基本盘，及时切入成为小镇青年的"第一杯"咖 啡，在品宣、选址及供应链协同优势，对标蜜雪主品牌商圈选址，该行预计幸运咖中期2万店空间可 期。 风险提示：市场竞争加剧，消费需求增长不足，海外门店扩张不及预期，品牌价值和形象受损。 平价茶饮赛道，公司以高质价比大单品实现大规模销售上量，并在自有供应链建设、门店加盟管理、产 品研发更新等方面深耕积累10余年，从而逐步构建形成蜜雪特有的利基市场竞争护城河。市场前端，蜜 雪核心单品均以具有直觉反差的实惠定价点燃市场，"高质平价 ...

Core Insights - The report from Ctrip indicates a significant increase in tourism activity during the New Year holiday, with nationwide ticket bookings rising over four times year-on-year, showcasing a strong consumer enthusiasm for travel [1] - Zhengzhou has emerged as a standout city, with a 68% increase in overall travel orders on New Year's Day compared to the previous year, significantly outpacing the national average [1] Group 1: Consumer Trends - The New Year holiday consumption trend is predominantly driven by younger demographics, with those born after 2000 accounting for 39% of travelers, followed closely by those born in the 1990s and 1980s [2] - This younger generation embraces the "self-care travel" philosophy, focusing on emotional value, personalized experiences, and cultural immersion [2] Group 2: Popular Attractions - The "please take 3 days off and rest for 8" strategy has led to a notable increase in flight bookings starting from December 27, with hotel occupancy rates rising nearly 50% year-on-year during the holiday [3] - The top five attractions in Zhengzhou during the New Year holiday were: Henan Museum, Only Henan Drama City, Shaolin Temple, Zhengzhou Yinji Animal Kingdom, and Mount Song Scenic Area, reflecting a diverse tourism landscape that combines history, modernity, culture, and entertainment [3] Group 3: Cultural Experience - The shift in consumer behavior from "I have been" to "I have experienced" is evident, with Zhengzhou leveraging its cultural resources to create an engaging experience of Chinese civilization [4] - Innovations such as digital exhibitions at Henan Museum and immersive theater experiences at Only Henan Drama City are enhancing visitor engagement and increasing secondary spending [4] Group 4: International Tourism - There has been a significant rise in inbound travel bookings during the New Year holiday, with Zhengzhou positioned as a key gateway for international tourists interested in exploring Central Plains culture [5] - International visitors from Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, and South Korea have shown a strong interest in the historical and cultural offerings of Henan [5]

据悉，该列高铁专列从北京始发，终点站为成都站，全程超2000公里，串联石家庄、郑州、襄阳、重庆等多座城市，可广泛辐射华北、华中、西南等多地区 的客流。作为蜜雪集团旗下现磨咖啡品牌，幸运咖到11月全球门店突破10000家。 分析人士指出，元旦、春节等节假日到来之际，借助高铁跨区域、高频次、大流量的传播优势，幸运咖有望实现品牌形象在全国范围的精准渗透。 北京商报讯（记者 郭缤璐）12月30日，幸运咖"万店专列"高铁冠名品牌列车首发仪式于北京西站举行。在列车车身上，可以看到"全球门店突破一万家"的 鲜明标识。走进该列高铁专列，可见车厢内部悄然"焕新"，从头枕巾、小桌板、行李架、列车海报到语音播报，全媒体构建品牌互动体验场景。 此次首发仪式，幸运咖在多节车厢为乘客准备了伴手礼袋，包括幸运扑克牌、万店纪念徽章、幸运咖啡仔、幸运老 K手办、新年幸运杯、新年幸运咖主题包 装袋等品牌周边产品，乘客上车落座后均可免费领取。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is the largest ready-to-drink beverage enterprise globally, establishing a leading position in the ready-to-drink tea market through its end-to-end supply chain and extensive store network of 53,000 locations. Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 33.55 billion, 40.30 billion, and 44.39 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 6.00 billion, 7.40 billion, and 8.41 billion yuan, indicating significant growth potential [1][2]. Industry and Company Analysis - The ready-to-drink beverage industry in China is experiencing rapid growth, with the ready-to-drink tea market size reaching approximately 258.5 billion yuan in 2023, driven by increased penetration in lower-tier markets and higher consumption frequency [1]. - The company focuses on the research, production, and sales of ready-to-drink tea and freshly brewed coffee, operating under a franchise model. Its brands, including Mixue Ice City and Lucky Coffee, are positioned as affordable options, with prices ranging from 6-8 yuan for tea and 5-10 yuan for coffee [2]. - The company has a market share of approximately 49.6% in the ready-to-drink tea sector, supported by a robust supply chain and a network of 53,000 stores as of the first half of 2025 [2]. - Revenue from product and equipment sales is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 32.68 billion, 39.22 billion, and 43.14 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, alongside improving gross margins [2]. Unique Insights - Contrary to common perceptions that the company's low-price model is easily replicable and growth potential is limited, the company has established cost barriers through its comprehensive supply chain, which enhances the sustainability of its low-price positioning [3]. - The company has built a centralized production system since 2012, creating a closed-loop supply chain that includes procurement, production, storage, and logistics, which significantly reduces costs and ensures product quality [4]. - The company has a mature franchise model that binds the interests of franchisees, with a low initial investment and franchise fees compared to industry averages, which supports sustainable profitability for franchisees [4]. Catalysts for Stock Performance - There remains significant room for expansion in the domestic store network, particularly in lower-tier markets, while also increasing penetration in first- and second-tier cities [5]. - The company has established a presence in Southeast Asia, with 4,733 stores outside mainland China, and is leveraging localized supply chain strategies to reduce logistics costs and enhance delivery efficiency [5]. - The coffee brand, Lucky Coffee, is set to restart its expansion after adjustments, creating a dual-brand strategy that enhances the company's resilience and growth potential in the ready-to-drink beverage market [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Mijue Group (2097.HK), marking its first coverage [4]. Core Insights - Mijue Group is positioned as the world's largest ready-to-drink beverage company, leveraging an end-to-end supply chain system and a network of 53,000 stores to establish a leading position in the ready-to-drink tea market. Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at RMB 335.5 billion, RMB 403.0 billion, and RMB 443.9 billion, respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB 60.0 billion, RMB 74.0 billion, and RMB 84.1 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 35.1%, 20.1%, and 10.1% [4][6]. Company and Industry Analysis - The ready-to-drink beverage industry in China is experiencing rapid growth, with the ready-to-drink tea market size reaching approximately RMB 258.5 billion in 2023. The company focuses on the research, production, and sales of ready-to-drink tea and freshly brewed coffee, operating under the brands Mijue Ice City and Lucky Coffee, which target price points of RMB 6-8 and RMB 5-10, respectively. The company operates on a franchise model, generating revenue primarily from selling equipment and providing franchise services [4][6]. - Mijue Group's supply chain advantages include a comprehensive procurement network across 38 countries, five production bases ensuring 100% self-sourcing of core ingredients, and a logistics system that allows for rapid delivery to 90% of domestic county-level administrative regions within 12 hours. This infrastructure supports consistent product quality and cost efficiency, reinforcing the company's market leadership with a market share of approximately 49.6% in the ready-to-drink tea sector [4][5][6]. Key Assumptions - The company anticipates steady expansion in store numbers, particularly in lower-tier markets, with projected revenue from product and equipment sales of RMB 326.8 billion, RMB 392.2 billion, and RMB 431.4 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The gross margin is expected to improve gradually, reaching 31.5% by 2027 [4][6]. - Revenue from franchise fees and related services is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of RMB 8.7 billion, RMB 10.9 billion, and RMB 12.5 billion for the same years, reflecting a robust growth trajectory supported by an expanding store network [4][6]. Financial Data and Profitability Forecast - The company forecasts total revenue of RMB 20.3 billion in 2023, increasing to RMB 44.4 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 49.6% from 2023 to 2024 and 10.1% from 2026 to 2027. Net profit is expected to rise from RMB 3.1 billion in 2023 to RMB 8.4 billion in 2027, with corresponding net profit growth rates of 57.1% and 13.7% [6][21]. - The report highlights a projected gross margin improvement from 29.5% in 2023 to 33.0% in 2027, alongside a net margin increase from 15.7% to 19.0% over the same period [6][21].

今年下半年以来，港股新消费板块经历深度调整。 以"新消费三姐妹"泡泡玛特、老铺黄金、蜜雪集团为例，截至12月18日收盘，三只个股较今年股价最高 点分别下跌43%、39%、35%。受访专家表示，以"新消费三姐妹"为代表的新消费板块回调，本质上是 对前期过高估值的修正，市场正对新消费商业模式可持续性进行深度审视。 "新消费三姐妹"正围绕本土IP出海、强化全球供应链管理、加快产品创新等方式，擘画"第二增长曲 线"。受访专家认为，国际消费巨头的经验表明，新消费企业要做好品牌文化沉淀以及全球化与本地化 的平衡，唯有将短期热度转化为长期用户忠诚度，方能在周期波动中立于不败。 高估值后的回调 今年上半年，港股"新消费三姐妹"股价涨幅巨大，估值一度远超传统消费巨头和国际同行。万得数据显 示，老铺黄金动态市盈率一度超过142倍，泡泡玛特一度达到113倍，同期迪士尼动态市盈率在20—40倍 左右，LVMH动态市盈率在20倍左右。 较高的估值也推动持仓资金集中离场，导致板块进入调整期。记者查看多家重仓港股的基金持仓发现， 它们均在三季度大幅削减了新消费龙头股的仓位。 数字经济智库高级研究员翁一在接受证券时报记者采访时表示，"新消费 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market's new consumption sector, represented by the "new consumption trio" of Pop Mart, Lao Pu Gold, and Mixue Group, has experienced significant price corrections due to previous overvaluations and market scrutiny of their business models [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Performance and Valuation - The "new consumption trio" saw stock price declines of 43%, 39%, and 35% from their peak values as of December 18 [1] - High valuations were noted, with Lao Pu Gold's dynamic P/E ratio exceeding 142 times and Pop Mart reaching 113 times, compared to Disney and LVMH's P/E ratios of 20-40 times and 20 times, respectively [2] - The market's correction is attributed to a reassessment of valuation bubbles and skepticism regarding the sustainability of their business models [2][3] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Economic Environment - Increased global economic uncertainty has led to a decline in consumer confidence and spending power, particularly affecting non-essential goods [3] - Consumers are becoming more cautious, prioritizing cost-effectiveness, which poses challenges for brands like Pop Mart and Lao Pu Gold that target trend-driven and mid-to-high-end markets [3] - The competitive landscape for Mixue Group in the tea beverage market is intensifying, with risks of market share dilution due to easily replicable business models [3] Group 3: Growth Strategies and Future Outlook - Despite stock price declines, the fundamentals of the "new consumption trio" remain strong, with Mixue Group reporting a revenue growth of 39.3% and a net profit increase of 44.1% in the first half of the year [4] - The companies are focusing on creating a "second growth curve" through international expansion, supply chain innovation, and brand value enhancement [4][5] - Mixue Group's coffee brand, Lucky Coffee, has surpassed 10,000 global stores, indicating rapid market penetration for affordable coffee in China [4][5] Group 4: Brand and Cultural Strategy - The "new consumption trio" is urged to transition from a focus on products to building brand culture and emotional connections with consumers [7][8] - Companies are encouraged to innovate continuously across product development, marketing, and service models to maintain competitiveness [8] - Strong supply chain management is essential for enhancing operational efficiency and product quality, which will bolster resilience against market fluctuations [8]

以 " 新消费三姐妹 " 泡泡玛特、老铺黄金、蜜雪集团为例，截至 12 月 18 日收盘，三只个股较今年股价最 高点分别下跌 43% 、 39% 、 35% 。受访专家表示，以 " 新消费三姐妹 " 为代表的新消费板块回调，本质 上是对前期过高估值的修正，市场正对新消费商业模式可持续性进行深度审视。 今年下半年以来，港股新消费板块 经历深度调整。 而复杂的宏观环境也让年轻消费者行为趋于谨慎，更看重性价比，市场对情绪消费和流量驱动的可持续性存 疑。 知名商业顾问，亚太社会创新研究院院长霍虹屹在接受证券时报记者采访时表示，全球经济不确定性增加，消 费者信心和消费能力受到一定程度抑制。在非必需品消费领域，消费者更加谨慎，这对主打潮流消费的泡泡玛 特和定位中高端的老铺黄金影响较大。蜜雪集团所处的茶饮市场竞争白热化，其商业模式易于被模仿复制，市 场份额面临稀释风险。 "同时，资本市场整体风险偏好下降。对于新消费这类前期估值较高且业绩增长存在不确定性的行业板块，资 金开始流出，转向更为稳健、抗风险能力强的传统行业或新兴战略产业。"霍虹屹表示。 "新消费三姐妹"正围绕本土IP出海、强化全球供应链管理、加快产品创新等方式，擘 ...

Core Viewpoint - The new consumption sector in Hong Kong, represented by the "new consumption three sisters" (Pop Mart, Laopuhuang, and Mixue Group), has experienced significant stock price declines, indicating a market correction of previously high valuations and a reassessment of the sustainability of their business models [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Performance and Valuation - The "new consumption three sisters" saw stock price drops of 43%, 39%, and 35% from their peak values as of December 18 [1] - High valuations were noted earlier in the year, with Laopuhuang's dynamic P/E ratio exceeding 142 times and Pop Mart reaching 113 times, compared to Disney's 20-40 times and LVMH's around 20 times [2] - The market correction was driven by a concentration of funds exiting the sector, as many funds significantly reduced their holdings in these stocks during the third quarter [2] Group 2: Business Model Challenges - Experts indicate that the stock price declines stem from market skepticism regarding valuation bubbles and the viability of business models [2] - Pop Mart's reliance on youth and IP is questioned due to declining interest in its flagship products, while Laopuhuang faces demand contradictions due to high gold prices affecting middle-class consumers [2] - Mixue Group is challenged by intense competition in the tea beverage market, with its business model being easily replicable, leading to potential market share dilution [3] Group 3: Growth Strategies - Despite stock price declines, the fundamentals of the "new consumption three sisters" remain strong, with Mixue Group reporting a 39.3% revenue growth and a 44.1% net profit increase in the first half of the year [4] - The companies are actively pursuing a "second growth curve" through international expansion, supply chain innovation, and brand value enhancement [4] - Mixue Group's coffee brand has surpassed 10,000 global stores, indicating rapid market penetration for affordable coffee in China [4] Group 4: Long-term Transformation - The current market correction serves as a "stress test" for the growth logic of the "new consumption three sisters," necessitating a shift from being trend-driven to building brand equity [7] - Recommendations for transformation include elevating value from product sales to cultural storytelling, creating a robust ecosystem beyond single product reliance, and fostering deep trust with consumers [7][8] - Strong brand culture and continuous innovation in product development and supply chain management are essential for sustaining competitiveness in the rapidly changing new consumption sector [8]